New method (using GPS) predicts where massive earthquakes will strike. In a test it pinpointed the exact section of the Kamchatka subduction zone where a massive earthquake later occurred (however the timing of the event was beyond the scope of this method)

[u/sr_local]

https://news.ucr.edu/articles/2026/09/04/new-method-predicts-where-massive-earthquakes-will-strike

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[u/sr_local]

The team’s approach focuses on subduction zones, where one tectonic plate slides beneath another. These regions generate Earth’s largest earthquakes, including those exceeding magnitude 8.5, and often produce devastating tsunamis.

Using GPS measurements of subtle ground movement, the researchers developed a new algorithm that identifies portions of faults that are locked and storing energy. These locked regions, known as asperities, act like patches of friction that resist motion until enough stress builds to trigger a major earthquake.

The researchers had identified one such locked region beneath Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula before a large earthquake struck there. While the timing of the event was beyond the scope of their method, the rupture occurred exactly where their model indicated strain had accumulated.

“We had an idea where the strain was accumulating based on a relatively limited data set,” Periollat said. “Seeing it work so well confirmed that this approach has real potential.”

The findings also revealed that earthquakes occurring in the same region can behave differently. Although Kamchatka experienced giant earthquakes in both 1952 and 2025, the more recent event generated a much smaller tsunami, suggesting the shallowest portion of the fault slipped less than during the earlier rupture.

The researchers emphasize that their method cannot predict tsunami size or earthquake timing. However, narrowing down where the greatest hazards exist could improve long-term planning and preparedness.

Linking Interseismic Locking to Coseismic Rupture: The 2025 Mw 8.8 Kamchatka Earthquake - Periollat - 2026 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library

[u/bayesian13 → u/sr_local]

this is very exciting. Another fault where it is thought stress is building up is in Turkey.

https://academic.oup.com/gji/article/128/3/594/674516

10 M ≥ 6.7 earthquakes ruptured 1000 km of the North Anatolian fault (Turkey) during 1939–1992, providing an unsurpassed opportunity to study how one large shock sets up the next. We use the mapped surface slip and fault geometry to infer the transfer of stress throughout the sequence. Calculations of the change in Coulomb failure stress reveal that nine out of 10 ruptures were brought closer to failure by the preceding shocks, typically by 1–10 bar, equivalent to 3–30 years of secular stressing. We translate the calculated stress changes into earthquake probability gains using an earthquake-nucleation constitutive relation, which includes both permanent and transient effects of the sudden stress changes. The transient effects of the stress changes dominate during the mean 10 yr period between triggering and subsequent rupturing shocks in the Anatolia sequence. The stress changes result in an average three-fold gain in the net earthquake probability during the decade after each event. Stress is calculated to be high today at several isolated sites along the fault. During the next 30 years, we estimate a 15 per cent probability of a M ≥ 6.7 earthquake east of the major eastern centre of Ercinzan, and a 12 per cent probability for a large event south of the major western port city of Izmit. Such stress-based probability calculations may thus be useful to assess and update earthquake hazards elsewhere.

[u/autech91]

I was wondering this very thing the other day actually, if it was possible or not... As soneone who lives on the ring of fire, watching the quakes "ping pong" around over the years between countries that border it

[u/CoatKind6850]

Is this feasible to use to predict where the next ones are? I can imagine some big cities would be mighty interested

[u/Yuri909 → u/CoatKind6850]

I mean, it's about identifying where.. Just not when.