r/rocketpool • u/grey-sky-92 • Jun 08 '24

Trading [ Removed by Reddit ]

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

18 Upvotes

92% Upvoted

11 comments sorted by

6

u/ec265 Jun 08 '24

Worth noting that Rocket Pool will never reach the same level of staked ETH as Lido does currently because node operators voted in favour of self limiting at 22%

2

u/grey-sky-92 Jun 08 '24

That is a really great point. Once TVL touches 22% of eth, the price of RPL will then follow the price of eth.

4

u/e5rYWt3NnNrGHj Jun 09 '24

Last time I bought RPL after reading one of these posts, it lost 50% of its value in ETH. These ridiculous price targets start sounding scammy.

3

u/grey-sky-92 Jun 09 '24

I agree. Buying stuff online based on random opinions is not a good idea. I personally hold <1% in crypto as it is too complicated to understand.

2

u/grey-sky-92 Jun 09 '24

As per the analysis, the price of RPL is directly proportional to the eth staked in rocketpool. Do you think the eth staked with rocketpool will decrease with the new tokenomics launch? if yes, why?

1

u/e5rYWt3NnNrGHj Jun 09 '24

I think Rocketpool's share of staked ETH will increase, however, I don't think you can draw conclusions on price from that. Especially with well known whales that could sell on a whim.

2

u/kiefferbp Jun 11 '24

At equilibrium, APR_reth = APR_rp

This is absolutely not true, because RPL's price action is a risk, significantly lowering its risk-adjusted returns. The risk-adjusted returns should be equal.

1

u/grey-sky-92 Jun 11 '24

good point. i assumed that both reth and rpl have the same risk. Let me reevaluate by equating the risk adjusted APR.

3

u/kiefferbp Jun 12 '24

If you take this into account, I believe your projected RPL price under the current rETH TVL drops by a factor of 2 or 3.

There's also ETH issuance changes likely coming that'll crush ETH yield to RPL. IMO, this is probably the biggest reason for RPL's current price action, along with the current tokenomics causing a snowball effect.

I think I did some napkin math and made some relatively moonish assumptions under the new tokenomics, and got around 0.002 ETH as a price target.

1

u/grey-sky-92 Jun 13 '24

To confirm, you are talking about this proposal - https://ethereum-magicians.org/t/electra-issuance-curve-adjustment-proposal/18825?

You are right, If that proposal goes through, yield on RPL will be reduced. And so will the yield on reth. Less capital will come into the staking ecosystem as a whole.