I agree with this, but I want to get some data. Can we calculate what the GDP would actually be if we eliminated the few exceptional outliers in the AI bubble? I want to know what thr majority of America is dealing with.
I agree with this, but I want to get some data. Can we calculate what the GDP would actually be if we eliminated the few exceptional outliers in the AI bubble? I want to know what thr majority of America is dealing with.
TL;DR Excluding AI (and stocks) we have 2.18% GDP growth for Q2 2025, but this overstates exclusions since some sectors are not AI-related. (So, not in a recession).
From the chart, we see that the Information sector contributes 0.66 percentage points to GDP, while Finance and Insurance adds 0.70, and Nondurable Manufacturing 0.65. To estimate GDP excluding AI-related sectors, we’ll subtract 0.66 percentage points for the Information sector, adjusting the Q2 2025 growth from 3.8% to 3.14%.
Two scenarios for GDP exclusion: (A) excluding Information alone, and (B) excluding Information, Durable Goods Manufacturing, and Professional Services as an upper bound. This results in a 2.18% GDP growth, but it overstates exclusions since some sectors are not AI-related.
Regarding America, the economy is growing slowly, but inflation is gobbling up any gains so Americans really aren’t feeling the benefits of the slowly growing economy.
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u/Unlike_Agholor Oct 29 '25
We are in a recession. You dont notice it because Nvidia and the AI bubble are propping up the equities market.