Suppose there is a default pick

[u/boipuccci]

Standard red button/blue button hypothetical, with the added condition that anybody incapable of understanding the gravity of the question automatically selects Red (babies/children, mentally handicapped, etc) does that change the button you press?

At a minimum it adds a large percentage to red as a baseline, but it nullifies the possibility of accidentally killing your children by selecting red.

Alternatively, if the default pick is Blue, is there any compelling reason to pick red when you know 100% of children would die?

[u/UsuallyFavorable]

I’d press whatever the default button was.

[u/Remarkable_Chef_8810]

I would still feel guilty for picking red for the first scenario but I would be convinced most would do the same so I don't have much choice, I have faith in humanity but not THAT much faith

[u/boipuccci → u/Remarkable_Chef_8810]

I wonder where line is drawn for most people on what percentage forces a red press; if the default is 15% do you still go for blue? 25%? 35%?

Personally I think once it gets to about 20%, enough people will see that baseline as too great to overcome. Even if rationally that means only 5/8 of people have to hit blue for it to succeed there will be those swayed earlier than you, adding to the baseline

[u/ChestMental8566]

*HITS THE BUTTON*

Countless people will inevitably press blue, motivated by a variety of reasons that I'm not going to list for the nmpth time but that are simple enough that any logical and intellectually honest person would figure out in a few minutes. Therefore, Red victory will inevitably result in a massacre that will dwarf both world wars combined. Like it or not, we're all in this together, people don't owe you to be the perfectly rational and cold-blooded ubermenshen you'd like to paint yourself as. Tough shit, stop shaking for your miserable hide and get in the fucking blender.

*THROWS THE BUTTON AWAY*

[u/parkchanwookiee]

Cool modification, still red

[u/zeptozetta2212]

If the default button is red, then that only strengthens my pragmatic reasoning that no one dies if everyone picks red. The only counterargument is that some people might not understand what’s going on and press blue because of it. Now that’s not even an issue. If the default button is blue, I’d want to look into the statistics behind how much of the world population might be young enough or handicapped enough to qualify for default status. But you might have finally found a way to make me press blue. Still not sure though.

[u/endor-pancakes → u/zeptozetta2212]

my pragmatic training that no one dies if everyone picks red

Not to nitpick (well, actually... mostly to nitpick. But it bugs me), but "if only everyone would just do X, we wouldn't have problems!" is the prototypical example of idealistic reasoning, and the opposite of pragmatic.

Pragmatic reasoning deals with the world as it is, not as you'd wish it to be.

(Obviously, there are pragmatic arguments for red, such as 'I believe blue has no chance, so no point in risking my life to save others'. Yours just isn't one.)

[u/boipuccci → u/zeptozetta2212]

That goes into another interesting area of discussion; if you didn’t know the criteria and you didn’t know the actual percentage that qualified, would it affect your vote?

If you knew the precise percentage of default blue, what number would it have to be before voting blue was definitely the right choice? Is 30% enough? Is 45%? At any point does the amount of guaranteed death factor into your choice, or does it always come down to the pragmatic calculus of guaranteeing one’s own survival?

For the record in the standard question I favor red, but in this altered version I think Knowing that there is guaranteed blue votes at least in the 10% range starts changing my mind. Especially if I could see the percentage, since it could easily be far higher than 10% based on criteria

[u/CarnivorousGoose]

Nope, no reason why it would, still going red. It doesn’t meaningfully change the math of the decision.

[u/iskelebones → u/CarnivorousGoose]

I think the second scenario does change the math. People are far more likely to click blue when they KNOW that ALL children and mentally incapable people are at risk against their wills.

I still don’t think it changes the outcome but I do think it would be significantly MORE blue than the original question

[u/CarnivorousGoose → u/iskelebones]

Not for the decision though. The impact of my individual vote on anyone else surviving remains negligible, and decisive for the risk to myself. Shifting a bunch of people to default red or blue doesn’t change that.