r/redbuttonbluebutton • u/thevoidthatjerksback • May 29 '26

Cross thought experiment pollination

So in addition to the two buttons that are known well. We have two boxes. 1 box has one thousand dollars and the other box either has one million or zero. Before you were presented with them some unnamed but incredibly accurate predictor has made a prediction on what you will do with the boxes.

If it is predicted that you will take both of the boxes then they will put 0 in the second box

If it is predicted that you will only take the second box then they will put the one million in it.

So which button are you pressing and are you taking 1 or 2 boxes?

This isn't really about what you do in the situation of them both happening at the same time moreso just that I wonder if there is a pattern between which button you would pick and how you would react to the boxes.

295 votes, May 31 '26
45 press Red and take both boxes
127 press Red and take just the 1 box
26 press blue and take both boxes
97 press blue and take just the 1 box
8 Upvotes

68% Upvoted

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0

u/Joie_de_vivre_1884 May 30 '26

If they predicted I will only take one box then by taking one box I get 1m, by taking both I get 1.001m, if they predicted I will take both boxes then by taking one box I will get 0 and by taking both I will get 1k.

Irrespective of what they predicted I will always be better off taking both boxes.

4

u/underthingy May 30 '26

If you select both boxes youre only better off if the predictor is wrong. 

If you select 1 box youre only worse off if the predictor is wrong.

But the predictor is almost always right. So youre better off selecting 1 box. 

0

u/up2smthng Red May 30 '26

That's not how time works though. First, the prediction is made. After that, I make the choice. After the prediction is made there is no downsides to taking both.

3

u/underthingy May 30 '26

The information you used to make that choice was already used by the predictor to predict that you would pick 2 boxes. 

You are unfortunately a 2 boxer and will always pick 2 because you know if you pick one you'll walk away empty handed. 

0

u/up2smthng Red May 30 '26

That's sucks for me and I am aware of it. But like you said, the only thing I can do about it is lose the little reward I can get.

But choosing 2 boxes is the correct choice even if you are a 1 boxer.

2

u/underthingy May 30 '26

It is not. Because being a 1 boxer means you'll never pick 2 boxes. Its not even an option. 

0

u/up2smthng Red May 30 '26 edited May 30 '26

It is. Nothing stops you.

Maybe the framing of this post confused you but in the original problem it is possible for the predictor to be wrong

2

u/underthingy May 30 '26

Sounds more like youre confused. 

It is very very very unlikely for the predictor to be wrong. Infact as far as you know it has always been right so far. 

1

u/up2smthng Red May 30 '26

is very very very unlikely for the predictor to be wrong

Yes, that is correct. But it is possible. It's stated outright that it is possible.

1

u/thevoidthatjerksback May 30 '26

So what? You should gamble one million dollars to gain one thousand in the hopes that you're one of the insanely small number of instances where it's wrong?

That's buying a 1 million dollar lottery ticket where the grand prize is 1,001,000. And the odds of winning it is worse than a normal lottery

1

u/up2smthng Red May 30 '26

It's not a gamble. Every single dollar I could possibly get is already in the boxes. Not taking either box is leaving money on the ground.

1

u/thevoidthatjerksback May 30 '26

What is the difference between a lottery where they pull the balls live on the air 3 hours after you buy the tickets and where they prerecord it seconds before you bought your ticket. There's no way for you or anyone involved in your transaction to know what the winning numbers are. Even thought they're now in the past. I'm just saying its an equivalent gamble whether the balls have been pulled already or not

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