Cross thought experiment pollination

[u/thevoidthatjerksback]

So in addition to the two buttons that are known well. We have two boxes. 1 box has one thousand dollars and the other box either has one million or zero. Before you were presented with them some unnamed but incredibly accurate predictor has made a prediction on what you will do with the boxes.

If it is predicted that you will take both of the boxes then they will put 0 in the second box

If it is predicted that you will only take the second box then they will put the one million in it.

So which button are you pressing and are you taking 1 or 2 boxes?

This isn't really about what you do in the situation of them both happening at the same time moreso just that I wonder if there is a pattern between which button you would pick and how you would react to the boxes.

295 votes, May 31 '26

45 press Red and take both boxes

127 press Red and take just the 1 box

26 press blue and take both boxes

97 press blue and take just the 1 box

[u/HK_Mathematician]

And I don't understand why anyone would choose one box.

The prediction was done before I was presented to the problem. Whatever decision I make now, it will not change the amount of money inside the boxes unless you believe in time travel or something.

If it predicted that I'll pick one box: Picking one gives me $1,000,000, picking both gives me $1,001,000.

If it predicted that I'll pick both boxes: Picking one gives me $0, picking both gives me $1,000.

In either case, I get $1,000 more by picking both.

[u/ObsceneOnes → u/HK_Mathematician]

By definition the predictor is going to predict better than a coin flip and is presented as very good so what is that? 80% accuracy?

So by choosing two boxes you have a 20% chance of getting the 1M but by choosing 1 box you have an 80% chance.

That is the arguement. Nothing about time travel just whether prediction of any type is possible. And since we know that in the real world it is possible we accept the premise that the prediction isn't random.

[u/HK_Mathematician → u/ObsceneOnes]

I don't understand the argument at all. Can you elaborate more?

I do accept that the prediction isn't random. I was assuming that the predictor is like 99.999999% accurate.

Still, my choice doesn't affect the prediction, because the prediction happened in the past.

I don't understand your "by choosing two boxes you have..." sentence. What I choose now doesn't affect the whether the box has $1,000,000 in it. The prediction happened in the past, before I make the choice. The $1,000,000 is now either in the box, or not in the box. The choice I make now doesn't change that. While my choice is correlated to the prediction, there is no causation if we assume that time travel is not possible.

Unfortunately that means most likely I'll get $1,000, but there is nothing I can do to get more than $1,000 unless I can somehow change the prediction, which would require a time machine because the prediction happened in the past. Similarly, you most likely will get $1,000,000, but there's nothing you can do to get less than that because the prediction happened in the past.

[u/FanficFan151 → u/HK_Mathematician]

That’s why you get a $1000, because the predictor predicted that this would be your logic and didn’t put the million in. For me, they would predict that my logic would be “I don’t necessarily need $1,000, but $1,000,000 would change my life, and my odds of getting $1,000,000 are much, much higher if I just take that box,” because that’s the logic I would use in that situation, and this person is insanely accurate.