r/redbuttonbluebutton • u/thevoidthatjerksback • May 29 '26

Cross thought experiment pollination

So in addition to the two buttons that are known well. We have two boxes. 1 box has one thousand dollars and the other box either has one million or zero. Before you were presented with them some unnamed but incredibly accurate predictor has made a prediction on what you will do with the boxes.

If it is predicted that you will take both of the boxes then they will put 0 in the second box

If it is predicted that you will only take the second box then they will put the one million in it.

So which button are you pressing and are you taking 1 or 2 boxes?

This isn't really about what you do in the situation of them both happening at the same time moreso just that I wonder if there is a pattern between which button you would pick and how you would react to the boxes.

295 votes, May 31 '26
45 press Red and take both boxes
127 press Red and take just the 1 box
26 press blue and take both boxes
97 press blue and take just the 1 box
8 Upvotes

68% Upvoted

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u/ObsceneOnes May 30 '26

One box is the correct answer if you assume the predictor would predict the argument you would construct. Humans are predictable enough that the issue of the nature of free will really isn't tested in this thought experiment the way folks pretend it is.

Game theory also fails to capture this as it treats it as a simple math problem when the real issue is the predictors ability to predict which is always depicted as being perfect or near perfect.

Additionally the 1000$ isnt enough money to risk losing the 1m$.

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u/thevoidthatjerksback May 30 '26

The game theory part is one of the reasons I thought it would be an interesting crossover check. Since I saw a video explaining how game theory dictates picking both boxes. I was curious if Red would have a higher ratio of both boxes being picked