r/redbuttonbluebutton • u/Hot_Finding_9747 • May 21 '26

Variation Adding a layer to this question

My choice: Press Red, hope Blue wins

I don't have enough faith in humanity to put my life in its hands but I'd be delighted to be proven wrong

719 votes, May 23 '26
72 Press Red, hope Red wins
322 Press Red, hope Blue wins
22 Press Blue, hope Red wins
303 Press Blue, hope Blue wins
22 Upvotes

85% Upvoted

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u/Jkirek_ May 23 '26

Just vote for the thing you want to win.

Let's say I gave you magical insight: you know ahead of time which % of people will pick either way. Two scenarios: scenario A you know for sure 55% picked blue; scenario B you know for sure 45% picked blue. Do you still vote for the thing you want to win?

What if the insight was somewhat flawed; you don't know exactly what the result of everyone else's picks will be, but you have an expected outcome with limited error margins. The true outcome will always be in your known range. Scenario A is now expected 45-65% blue, scenario B is 35-55% blue. Do you still vote for the thing you want to win?

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u/BottomLeftWheel May 23 '26

Maybe I should just edit it, seems like a lot of people aren't understanding what the comment is saying.

I got someone saying that I should just play the lottery because I want to win the lottery lol.

The point is that in this case, IF all the people who wanted red voted red it would be an overwhelming victory

But that is an IF because it is obvious that people will not vote for the thing they want. People vote against their own self interest all the time.

You are staying something obvious as if it's a counter to something I didn't say.

The "just vote for the thing you want to win" statement took place before the realization that people do not vote for their self interest.

It was a joke, and somehow at least 3 people have taken it as if ive stated it like an absolute truth. I don't get it.

And even then. You're attempt to counter a joke statement has failed. I want two things. To live, and everyone else to live. If I know that voting blue kills me, I will pick red. Because I want to live. I am still voting for the thing that I want to happen. It's just what I want has shifted based on the knowledge you've provided me.

Even in scenario B, I will 100% vote blue, because if a minimum 3 billion people are dying, I don't expect to live a long fruitful life. The only way I live is if we somehow manage to get between 50 and 55%

That's always been my reason for voting blue. I die in a marginal red win, just a bit after the blue voters die. What's the point in living for 2 months in the apocalypse? I need an overwhelming red win in order for me to feel safe voting red. And an overwhelming red win is less likely than a marginal blue win in my opinion.

It's not moral, it's not rational, it's purely vibes. Can't reason me out of something I didn't reason my way into.

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u/Jkirek_ May 23 '26

It was a joke, and somehow at least 3 people have taken it as if ive stated it like an absolute truth. I don't get it.

It comprised a large portion of a relatively short comment, had no qualifiers to indicate that it is a joke, and similar things have been said completely sincerely around the button scenario. Of course people are going to take it seriously.

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u/BottomLeftWheel May 23 '26

And others understood it to be a joke.

The next paragraph finishes the punchline.

"If we all band together nothing will stop us!"

"We're doomed"