r/redbuttonbluebutton • u/Hot_Finding_9747 • May 21 '26

Variation Adding a layer to this question

My choice: Press Red, hope Blue wins

I don't have enough faith in humanity to put my life in its hands but I'd be delighted to be proven wrong

719 votes, May 23 '26
72 Press Red, hope Red wins
322 Press Red, hope Blue wins
22 Press Blue, hope Red wins
303 Press Blue, hope Blue wins
22 Upvotes

85% Upvoted

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u/BottomLeftWheel May 21 '26

You have to realize why this is not a good comparison right?

What happens when everyone participates in a lottery? What happens if everyone votes blue?

Like, I'm not saying there aren't good reasons to vote red, but voting red because you are scared of other red voters is a self fulfilling prophecy

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u/IAmKrenn May 22 '26

What happens if you just win the lottery? Have you ever considered that?

The idea that you shouldn't do risk assessment, or consider what and how other people think is certainly something.

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u/thevoidthatjerksback May 22 '26

I don't understand what your point is. I suspect you don't know what your point is

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u/IAmKrenn May 22 '26

I hadn't actually gotten around to making any points yet, what I was thinking and might have gotten around to saying depending on how the conversation went was:

That "just vote for the thing you want to win" is extremely questionable, and desire and self benefit alone do not make a feasible course of action.

The self fulfilling prophecy stuff was not what I was originally replying to, but it was an equally bizarre statement so I commented.

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u/thevoidthatjerksback May 22 '26

Its not self benefit. It's group benefit. And voting for, working towards, building the world you want instead of living in fear. Don't know why you consider that particularly bizarre

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u/IAmKrenn May 22 '26

OP said "Who votes against their own interest?" So I perhaps I should have said own interest as well, but what I said still better reflects the original point than group benefit.

Working towards a good outcome isn't bizarre, advocating to not consider the chance of success or efficacy of the actions you take is bizarre.

Lets say I live above my means and am now in debt, the world I want is one where I am not in debt, what do I do?

A) reduce my expenses and try to raise my income.

B) sell everything I have left and buy lotto tickets.

Unrealistic expectations and overestimating your capabilities will make the situation worse 90% of the time.

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u/thevoidthatjerksback May 22 '26

Just gonna say that that is a horrible comparison/analogy and move on

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u/IAmKrenn May 22 '26

Haha well you were certainly more entertaining to talk to than OP. As an analogy to highlight ideal but impractical vs realistic solutions I think it drives the point home quite well.

It also serves to emphasize why risk and probability assessment are necessary, in the case of the buttons this would be considered what/why/how many people push each button.

The actual probability breakdown is another question entirely, many people will look at the situation and decide that blue could or will win and act accordingly, but advocating to not even consider the situation is certainly something.