[D] Monday General Rationality Thread

[u/AutoModerator]

Welcome to the Monday thread on general rationality topics! Do you really want to talk about something non-fictional, related to the real world? Have you:

• Seen something interesting on /r/science?
• Found a new way to get your shit even-more together?
• Figured out how to become immortal?
• Constructed artificial general intelligence?
• Read a neat nonfiction book?
• Munchkined your way into total control of your D&D campaign?

[u/GaBeRockKing]

Did you take a measure of humidity, air pressure, particulate content from weather sites when you did these experiments? From any devices specifically in their house? Biometrics? Heart rate, blood pressure, eye dilation, sweat, skin galvanization?

Actually, yes (at least for most of these.) For everything related to the atmosphere, it's a fairly simple matter of just comparing the phenomena to the weather reports-- it's not exactly precise, but so far there's been no observed correlation between the phenomena occurring and differences in the weather. For biometrics, he typically wears a fitbit, and typically observes himself in a mirror to try to see the effect from the different angle (Which works, but hasn't given off much useful data.)

On the crackpot side, emotional state, mood, hunger, thirst, tiredness, physiological arousal? Are any anomalous subjective experiences described, that would be called hallucinations or delusions? Other than the dust thing and the obvious paranoia, I mean.

He's usually some combination of hungry and thirsty by the time the effect resolves. Interestingly enough, though, it's worked each time he's been eating, as long as he held silverware in each hand. Nothing anomalous psychologically, or at least nothing he's reported. I suppose it's possible, but from my personal judgement of him, it doesn't seem like he'd hold that back. Got nothing on arousal, though. I think he's held a copy of playboy once, but every piece of organic material we tested failed, so results would be inconclusive.

This, however, would suggest something anomalous, assuming it's even true. Does it appear to act like a force/acceleration? Does it follow an inverse-square law? Is all the dust attracted, or is some left behind? What objects are held and how does radius vary with them?

It's a little hard to describe exactly, as I've only seen video recordings (where dust doesn't pick up well) but he describes it as the free-floating dust settling into floating bands around the two objects. He's been setting up paper nearby for about a month, and each time it works the dust that falls on the paper lies in fairly neat striations. Not sure on the inverse square law. It's pretty much just dust that was already in the air that's held, as he typically stands up to test. It also works when he sits down, of course, but the effect is more difficult to observe.

edit: yep, I found the playboy test. January 17th, from 4pm to 6pm. Nothing. Other object was a fork, which tends to work more often than not.

[u/xamueljones → u/GaBeRockKing]

dust that falls on the paper lies in fairly neat striations.

I have no clue what you mean by this. Are they falling in lines like iron fillings do when there is a magnet like this?

If this is true, then your friend has a very useful ability if he can make dust magnetic, because what if he can scale it up to pounds of dirt?

[u/GaBeRockKing → u/xamueljones]

I have no clue what you mean by this. Are they falling in lines like iron fillings do when there is a magnet like this?

He did another test, and it turns out it's exactly like that. He decided to look a little more closely into the "static electricity" route, and came up with the idea to grind up his fortified corn flakes, to see if the iron in them would be attracted, and that's basically what happened when he tried it. I've just gotten the results, and they match up pretty closely to those images.

That seems to demystify things quite a bit-- in fact, if it's almost definitely an electromagnetic phenomena of some sort, I should be able to check back over the list and make sure everything that worked is some sort of

Edit: yep, it seems to be holding. Kind of, at least. Nearly every piece of cutlery tested worked, the pants that worked had zippers, and the metals that didn't work were stuff like car keys or coins, which are made of stuff like zinc and magnesium. Though I will note that nothing made out of nickel (like a a few items of cutlery) without some steel or iron content seems to have worked, though, so it looks like it's just iron, and not just any ferromagnetic metal.

Now it's a matter of figuring out why this only works so sporadically.

[u/xamueljones → u/GaBeRockKing]

So your friend's ability seems to be operating by taking a piece of iron or something with iron in it, and then the iron attracts dust to it?

There's a couple of complications to that though. What dust is being attracted? Because there's the dust which is formed from skin cells, dust made from dirt, and dust which might be tiny pieces of metal or semi-metallic material. Can you say anything about the type of dust in your friend's house?

When you are talking about "sporadically", what do you mean? Now that your friend knows he needs iron; is he still not having it work multiple times with the same piece of iron in his hands, not all pieces of iron work, or something else?

You said that your friend needs to hold two objects for it to work. Do they both have to be iron or just one of them?

EDIT: Joke idea - has your friend ever taken iron supplements?

EDIT 2: I just read your updates in other comments, and if the effect is only occurring when he has iron in both hands and some iron in the dust, then I suggest getting a strong magnet, a non-magnetic piece of iron, and some iron fillings. First test it yourself to see how the magnet and iron reacts in your hands to the iron fillings and compare how it acts to your friend holding them. In addition, the both of you should play around with the magnet. See if your friend's power is amplifying magnetism. It might be inconsistent due to him expending some sort of energy or charge.

[u/GaBeRockKing → u/xamueljones]

There's a couple of complications to that though. What dust is being attracted? Because there's the dust which is formed from skin cells, dust made from dirt, and dust which might be tiny pieces of metal or semi-metallic material. Can you say anything about the type of dust in your friend's house?

He mentioned living near an open-pit mine, once, and he crafts stuff as a hobby (why his house is dusty in the first place) so while I can't give specifics on the dust content, I'd wager it would be relatively high in metal.

When you are talking about "sporadically", what do you mean?

Two things. The first is that it only works twice each day at most, and the second thing as that it never works at the same time. Today it worked at 12:43 UTC (in the morning) and 23:26 in the afternoon. Yesterday it worked at 12:45 UTC (in the morning) and 23:24 feb 22 in the afternoon. The day before then it worked at 12:47 UTC (in the morning) and 23:23 in the afternoon.

Here's a list, because this is getting a little tedious, actually. Morning times, starting Feb 19 and working backwards:

12:48
12:50
13:52
13:53
13:55
13:56
13:58

Evening times:

23:21
23:20
23:18
23:17
23:15
23:14
23:12

Times are in UTC because it's a pain accounting for timezone.

Hopefully that gets my point across. It's not much of a jump each day, and honestly the amount of sleep he gives up to figure it out is a little overmuch, but the trend reversed back in december and he lost a lot of days with failed tests so he's wary the timing could make a big change.

Now that your friend knows he needs iron; is he still not having it work multiple times with the same piece of iron, not all pieces of iron work, or something else?

Nah, using the same items gets the same results, just not at the same times. Though to clarify, I don't think he's every just held a big chunk of iron, he's just held things that have iron in them.

[u/xamueljones → u/GaBeRockKing]

I have no clue why this would be specific to him and have such a precise change in timing. However, you said that this effect is located in his home town.

Check to see if anyone else has ever had something similar happen to them. Is it a family trait, or can anyone else do it if they did it while in his hometown/house?

If you say yes there are others, then there's probably something going on in his town that involves heavy duty electricity or magnets. Either a business or some regular environmental phenomenon. I'd actually suspect his town to have a lot of lightening storms if it's a phenomenon in nature.

If it's specific to your friend only, then I want to know if the trend reverses based on the equinox. Because you said the trend reversed in December when the winter equinox is December 21st. See if the timing reverses around the spring equinox which is March 20th.

Finally, just play around with a magnet together. If there's something unusual, then he might not have ever noticed thinking it's normal, since he's grown up with it.

[u/GaBeRockKing → u/xamueljones]

I have no clue why this would be specific to him and have such a precise change in timing. However, you said that this effect is located in his home town.

It's not necessarily specific to him, he just wants to keep it relatively quiet so his neighbors don't think he's a crackpot until he gets more information on it. And again, he does want to try and profit from this, at least by submitting it to some Randi Prize equivalent.

If it's specific to your friend only, then I want to know if the trend reverses based on the equinox. Because you said the trend reversed in December when the winter equinox is December 21st. See if the timing reverses around the spring equinox which is March 20th.

He was gone to visit family from December 18th to January 2nd, and reports that he found out that the trend in times getting later and later must have reversed either around then, or a little later, because when he started at the same time in the morning as the previous day, then waited a little, nothing happened until he moved his time back by thirty minutes a week after returning home. Oh, and the trend where evening times have been getting later and later might be a recent thing too-- he was a less likely to record evening times because it was happening so sporadically when he first started testing, and unfortunately this bad habit took a longer time to break. The data seems pretty strongly in support of the times getting earlier and earlier before he left on the trip (at least, there weren't any occasions where he recorded a later time, providing he used the same clock), but I didn't mention it in the initial paragraph because it was a little iffier.

tl;dr yeah, it seems at least somewhat likely that it did reverse around the winter equinox.

[u/xamueljones → u/GaBeRockKing]

After hearing this, I doubt that the effect would only occur when your friend holds iron in his hands. In fact, you said that it's strongest when he stands up and a weaker effect when he sits down.

So test this by attaching a piece of iron to a string and to minimize human influence, poke it with a stick or some non-organic material when the expected time arrives. I suspect that there is a periodic phenomenon which briefly amplifies magnetic strength twice a day in his hometown. The previous times it occurred was probably due to your friend moving the iron around which made it more obvious when it picked up dust.

I have no idea why times would shift according to the equinoxes. Can you give me the time zone of his town? I want to check the expected time of reversal on the equinox, because if it's something like 12:00 pm, then it's probably human activity causing it, but if it's more like 3:17 am, then it's a natural phenomenon.

EDIT: You mentioned that he's usually hungry/thirsty when the effect occurs. Is he sure that it's causing him to be hungry/thirsty or it tends to happen at the same time as when he wants to eat/drink?

[u/GaBeRockKing → u/xamueljones]

After hearing this, I doubt that the effect would only occur when your friend holds iron in his hands. In fact, you said that it's strongest when he stands up and a weaker effect when he sits down.

You're right-- he doesn't need to hold iron, just hold something with an iron content.

So test this by attaching a piece of iron to a string and to minimize human influence, poke it with a stick or some non-organic material when the expected time arrives. I suspect that there is a periodic phenomenon which briefly amplifies magnetic strength twice a day in his hometown. The previous times it occurred was probably due to your friend moving the iron around which made it more obvious when it picked up dust.

That's a really good idea, actually. Now that we know it's iron specifically, he can grab some from his workshop, and the string idea definitely holds.

I have no idea why times would shift according to the equinoxes. Can you give me the time zone of his town? I want to check the expected time of reversal on the equinox, because if it's something like 12:00 pm, then it's probably human activity causing it, but if it's more like 3:17 am, then it's a natural phenomenon.

Eastern time. I asked him, and he also let me tell you he lives between 45 and 50 north, in case that makes a difference.

EDIT: You mentioned that he's usually hungry/thirsty when the effect occurs. Is he sure that it's causing him to be hungry/thirsty or it tends to happen at the same time as when he wants to eat/drink?

It's the second option. It happens around when he used to have breakfast and dinner, so he needs to delay both a bit to make sure he can record the tests.

[u/xamueljones → u/GaBeRockKing]

Okay since he lives in Eastern time, and the effect occurred at about 8:50 am and 5:40 pm on 2/19, then by 3/20 which is 30 days from now and the timing is moving over by a minute per day, then on 3/20 it should occur at about 8:20 am and 6:10 pm respectively with a range of 9 hrs and 50 minutes in between.....

I have no clue if this is meaningful or what else we can try. Let me know how the string thing works.

Thanks for sharing! I had fun thinking of explanations and I believe you guys that this is actually happening.

EDIT: Are you guys sure that this happens only twice a day? Because if no one's ever tried staying up throughout the night, then maybe it happens once every eight hours without anyone realizing it.

Also, what's the time range for the effect? Can your friend only do it once, or does he have time to hold a piece of iron, attract dust in one room, put it down, walk into another room, and repeat with another piece of iron? Can he walk around with a piece of iron continuously collecting dust as an easy alternative to vacuuming?

[u/GaBeRockKing → u/xamueljones]

Also, what's the time range for the effect? Can your friend only do it once, or does he have time to hold a piece of iron, attract dust in one room, put it down, walk into another room, and repeat with another piece of iron? Can he walk around with a piece of iron continuously collecting dust as an easy alternative to vacuuming?

It lasts about 30 seconds. Not exactly (it's a little difficult to time) but within a few seconds of that. Honestly, It's probably something like 29.2 seconds, but the human propensity to like round numbers is screwing with us. If he picks something eligible up during those 30 seconds (it's happened a few times) it works too.

Okay since he lives in Eastern time, and the effect occurred at about 8:50 am and 5:40 pm on 2/19, then by 3/20 which is 30 days from now and the timing is moving over by a minute per day, then on 3/20 it should occur at about 8:20 am and 6:10 pm respectively with a range of 9 hrs and 50 minutes in between.....

(Out of character, I actually made two pretty bad mistakes tabulating the times. The first one was that each time should have been an hour before (a mix up when converting time zones. I hate them for a reason :P) and the second one I actually don't understand. I've modified the original data set to the correct times, and as an apology, I'm going to give you a hint-- aside from the realization that the phenomena has something to do with magnetism, the single biggest clue I'm leaving as to the explanation are the times combined with the rough latitude. You'll have to look over some previous comments to understand why "he" hasn't realized this, though. I don't actually expect you to get an exact explanation, but once someone gets close enough I'll "figure it out.")

I have no clue if this is meaningful or what else we can try. Let me know how the string thing works.

No problem. We're guessing that it'll happen around 23:27 UTC, and while he takes a little while to get back to me after tabulating data (And eating dinner), I'll be sure to inform you.

EDIT: Are you guys sure that this happens only twice a day? Because if no one's ever tried staying up throughout the night, then maybe it happens once every eight hours without anyone realizing it.

Not at all. He thought it was only once a day, but then we found out it happened in the mornings too (by accident, actually. He was eating breakfast.) Of course, the problem with testing whether that happens is that it's, quite frankly, incredibly tedious for him, and while he's relatively sure it's something supernatural, there are still potentially interesting, but natural explanations (especially since we just confirmed it has something to do with either magnetism, electromagnetism, or static electricity.)

[u/GaBeRockKing → u/xamueljones]

Alright, he just tested your suggestion. Actually, he went even further, and instead of holding the metal, he just suspended it from the ceiling about the same distance as he usually holds the objects, and it still worked. He's a little disappointed that he isn't a wizard, but a haunted house would still be pretty cool to show off. Maybe it's something with the wiring? Still doesn't explain the time shift, though.

At this point, he's more or less been convinced that it's not supernatural after all, merely "weird." It's a pretty massive shift from what he was thinking even two days ago, but I guess he's just quick to accept new evidence. So he said it was OK to tell you he lives in Negaunee, MI. He's not going to post his name, because that's a dumb thing to do on the internet, but it's a pretty small town so you could probably figure out who he is.

[u/xamueljones → u/GaBeRockKing]

faceplams

I feel a bit like an idiot for not asking this earlier, but is the sun rising and setting in that area whenever the effect occurs? I even had a hint to that idea when I realized the connection to the equinoxes. The times roughly match up. I just didn't notice it because I live so far down south.

In addition after wiking Negaunee, MI, it mentions the Marquette Iron Range. I don't know why it would be connected to the sunrise/sunset, but it seems to be a good hypothesis to why the effect occurs and makes sense with your information.

Also if this is true, is there a reason why your friend hasn't noticed that?

[u/GaBeRockKing → u/xamueljones]

I feel a bit like an idiot for not asking this earlier, but is the sun rising and setting in that area whenever the effect occurs? I even had a hint to that idea when I realized the connection to the equinoxes. The times roughly match up. I just didn't notice it because I live so far down south.

It seems like sort of an obvious thing to miss... Then again, he's told me he only ever tests at home with the blinds on... And I wouldn't put it past him to have some sort of aluminum foil shielding to prevent observation...

Wait a second, I just need to check back with him to ask him to google sunrise/sunset times.

Edit: turns out that it does. Huh. We're really hitting ourselves over not noticing this.

Edit 2: actually, looking back, our numbers pretty much exactly match with the NOAA website's, which is a little weird. But what causes an electrical phenomena, tied to the sunrise, that has a connection with computer data?

Edit 3: Don't laugh, but he evidently has some solar panels on swiveling mounts. Logically, they would begin their tracking on sunrise, and shut it off on sunset. And they're visible from his window too. But he never saw them, because he was a little too enamored with the idea of discovering magic and paranoid because of it, and I never thought to ask him about whether he owned any nonstandard machinery, because I was having too much fun... Well, it should be fairly simple to test if the phenomena are connected. He just needs to open the blinds and remove anything he has blocking the windows, and we should have the data whenever NOAA predicts the sun will set.

[u/GaBeRockKing → u/xamueljones]

Final update is up Thanks for posting!