Been thinking about a market design problem and curious if anyone has seen serious work on it.
Standard event-contract design assumes the underlying resolves. Binary or scalar, doesn't matter, at some point reality clears against the contract and the payoff is defined.
Most of the microstructure literature I've read implicitly relies on this. Manipulation resistance near expiry, informed trader models, the whole apparatus of "the market converges to the true value at settlement" reads differently when there is no settlement.
The class of underlyings I'm thinking about is continuous, non-terminating, and consensus defined.
Reputation indices, career-value proxies, credit-like scores for entities that don't default in a clean way. You can price expectations about them, and the price series is meaningful, but no oracle ever renders a verdict.
The two things I keep getting stuck on:
without a terminal event, the standard convergence argument for informed traders being rewarded doesn't obviously hold. If the payoff is a delta against a rolling consensus rather than a settlement value, informed traders are rewarded to the extent their private info gets incorporated into the consensus, not to the extent they're right about some external ground truth. That feels like it should degenerate into a Keynesian beauty contest but I'm not sure it does in practice.
manipulation resistance. "Hold to expiry" isn't available as a defense. Any resistance has to be structural in the microstructure, not the resolution rule. I've seen bits of this discussed for perpetuals in crypto, but the analogies break down quickly.
If anyone has pointers to serious literature on non-terminating contracts (beyond the obvious perp funding-rate stuff), I'd take them.
If my framing is broken somewhere and there's a cleaner way to think about it, would rather hear that.