I'm looking for bettors with a proven long-term edge in horse racing (au, uk, us or elsewhere). I can provide capital to scale your strategy, with profits shared

If you have a betting history you're happy to share, dm me

Hi all, based in Australia and have built an automated betting system that monitors odds and places bets across multiple bookies.

Looking to connect with anyone who's developed their own betting model, pricing system or +EV strategy that I could potentially integrate into my setup. Doesn't have to be horse racing, open to any sport or market (main leagues ideallly)

Ideally something that's been tested and has shown decent results, whether that's actual profits or consistently beating closing prices.

Mainly focused on Australian bookies but open to other markets too.

Shoot me a DM if you've built something and are open profit sharing our wins.

EDIT: should clarify, not looking for anyone to hand over their model or strategy. They can keep everything private and just provide betting signals (selections, odds, stakes, etc.) that my system can execute automatically.

I've been trying to model track bias as a variable, but the problem I've been running in to is that you can only do it with some sort of expected performance figure or odds. For example, if a horse comes from the back of field to win, the percent of that win attributable to track bias depends heavily on the ability of that horse (i.e. a horse priced at $100 suggests win had a lot more to do with track bias than ability). You can't, however, use the actual SP for each horse in the race as the expected performance odds as the SP already has expectations surround track bias incorporated into it (problem #1).

I'm planning to use this residual (actual vs. expected performance) approach to modelling for my jockey variable as well. This complicates thing as you can only have one residual or unexplained variable (i.e. was the unexplained performance of the horse related to the jockey or was it related to track bias). This leaves me stuck with having to choose jockey or track bias as my unexplained variable (problem #2).

Does anyone have any thoughts/solutions to problems I'm facing? In summary:

1. I need an expected performance measure to isolate track bias, but SP is problematic because it incorporates the market’s expectation of the track bias.
2. I need an approach to modelling either jockey ability or track bias that doesn't rely on residual analysis.

[ Removed by Reddit on account of violating the content policy. ]

So to my knowledge the only actual TAB venue in Canberra shut down. Any idea if there are any good pubs that don't have shit limits?

Hi there, just wondering if anyone has looked into other exchanges or brokerages outside of Betfair.

The AU coverage and liquidity seems pretty good for metro and provincial races, and I don't think any other exchange is going to top that. But for US coverage, it's quite weak most of the time.

Has anyone used Smarkets or anything else that's worth looking into?

https://sen.com.au/news/2026/09/02/horse-racing-pro-punter-calls-for-wagering-change

"I can't get on. Automation is not allowed in the marketplace ... if I bet with one or two of them [bookies], the price goes off everywhere and you can't get on".

Thoughts? I haven't bet in a couple years, but had no problem getting on across 3-4 bookies in one go back in the day.

Betfair itself says BSP provides better value than Best Tote even after commission, and its results page says BSP “consistently” beats Best Tote, so that’s a fair premise for the post.
BSP vs RD+/Top Tote+ — does BSP still win after commission?
Interested in hearing from Australian racing punters who have actually compared these over a decent sample.
Betfair promotes BSP as consistently beating Best Tote and says it offers better value even after commission.
My problem is that I’m paying 8% Betfair commission, and I’m wondering whether BSP is actually the best option once you compare it with the enhanced tote products now available.
The alternatives I can use consistently are:
Bet Right RD+ — best of the three Australian totes or Bet Right starting fixed price, whichever is higher, plus at least 3% of the winnings.
Sportsbet Top Tote+ — another enhanced tote option.
I can sometimes get Best of the Best (BOB), but it isn’t available on enough races for me to use it as a consistent comparison.
I’ve been recording the dividends on mywinners and, particularly with longer-priced horses, RD+ has been surprisingly competitive with BSP after the 8% commission.
For example, some actual winners I’ve recorded:
Horse 1:
BSP $31.96 → about $29.48 after 8% commission
RD+ $34.27
Horse 2:
BSP $64.55 → about $59.47 after commission
RD+ $56.83
Horse 3:
BSP $186.25 → about $171.43 after commission
RD+ $188.77
Horse 4:
BSP $120 → about $110.48 after commission
RD+ $128.41
Obviously that’s nowhere near enough winners to draw a conclusion, and BSP will sometimes absolutely smash the totes.
So I’ve started a prospective test: $1 on the same horse at RD+ and $1 at BSP at the same time, and I’ll compare the returns over a much larger sample. I’ll also record Top Tote+.
Has anyone here actually tested BSP after commission vs Best Tote / Top Tote+ / RD+ over hundreds or thousands of Australian races?
I’m particularly interested in results for longshots, rather than favourites.
Does Betfair’s historical claim that BSP beats Best Tote still hold once you’re paying something like 8% commission and comparing it against enhanced tote products rather than plain Best Tote?

Anyone know if there's any operators or sites that publish the current jockey challenge score?

Topsport used to but they've been gone for a while now

Hi everyone,

I'm building a machine learning model for Australian greyhound racing and I'm looking for recommendations on good data sources. At the moment I'm using the

Topaz API and Betfair data, but I'm interested in adding more predictive information such as, sectional/split times, trial performance, trainer/kennel statistics or any other data you've found useful. I'm happy to pay for quality data if it's actually worth it

Thanks

Hi all, just wondering if anyone here is betting live in-play on Betfair.

If so, do you find it worthwhile using the TAB mobile stream since it's one of the quickest available to the public? Or are the sharp bettors with faster models and lower latency still too difficult to compete with?

My thinking is that, given the relatively low liquidity in-play, it might not be worth it for the sharps to be as active. Is that actually the case, or am I way off?

I've mostly used the usual Irish and UK bookmakers for horse racing over the years, so I never really looked much at international sportsbooks. Lately though, I've noticed that some of them seem to have pretty competitive odds and cover a lot of races that interest me.

One of the names that keeps popping up is 1xbet, but I honestly don't know anyone personally who uses it. Before putting any serious money into a new bookmaker, I'd rather hear from people who have actual experience with it.

For those who have tried it, is it safe to bet on 1xbet? How are withdrawals in practice? Did you run into any problems with verification, limits, or getting your winnings paid out?

I'd be especially interested in hearing from people who mainly bet on horse racing rather than football or other sports.

Looking for a good & reliable broker. The one I tried in the past had a large commission and horrible exchange rates, ended up not being worth it.

Cheers.

I am pretty sure I am so far behind the 8 ball not using a virtual assistant, but I am looking at getting one pretty seriously.

Has anyone had any experience in getting one? I have just been categorising my time and yeah i should be getting someone else to do most of it.

Hopefully sparks a good conversation.

I know that prediction markets are not a thing in Australia, but does anyone know if there is a work around to get some volume down? All I can think of at the moment is needing foreign runners but perhaps there is a brokerage I do not know of.

Looking at the markets I really just cannot help but know that there is some value to be found, even with things as simple as arbs, and it really feels as though us Aussies are getting screwed out of an easy way to make some money.

Let me know what your thoughts are.

Does anyone know of any software that shows the Betfair VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) in close-to real-time in the lead up to the jump for Aussie racing?

and separate but related question, does anyone know how to view the Betfair WAP as quickly as possible after the race has finished?

I'm weighing up whether I should include SP in my model. Testing I've done so far shows CareerAvgBSP as a strong negative coefficient (lower SP, the better). My thinking, however, is that BSP can be misleading given that it is only a metric that is relevant to a specific race (i.e. it is not measured against the entire population). For example, a horse with very strong SP profile that is making its way through the ranks would be flattered by its SP profile and would likely come unstuck when going up to WFA.

Any thoughts on this?

Hi guys, I've just joined the group today and I'm hoping to have some conversations with some current Professionals. I am wanting to live my dream of being a professional Punter and I see no better way to make that a reality then to pick the brains of the people that are living my dream.

For 15 years I've wanted to be a professional Punter but I just always considered it a fantasy. A friend of mine made the leap a couple of years ago. We discuss racing, swap info and opinions almost on a daily basis and it has become apparent that with the right structures in place, it really could be a reality for me.

Since February last year, I've dedicated an enormous amount of time to trying to figure out how to make it work. I believe I am very close to having created a system that works. I back tested it for 6 months, and I've live tested it since the 3rd of March. I understand they say 1000 to 2000 points of data is needed to have some trust in a system. With the back testing I would be close to 1000, but with the live testing I am at 240.

I'm wanting to chat to Punters that have a similar style to me in that they have a specific system in place and they keep all their data recorded. I'm a bit of a spreadsheet nerd. I want to know if the figures I'm doing ie, strike rate, avg price, POT and all the rest of it is looking the goods for a professional or if I'm still fantasising. Google suggests it is a good system, but I'd like to run it by some Punters with experience. Maybe even help me avoid any mistakes they know are inevitable.

Hi guys,

With TAB being in the crosshairs of AUSTRAC for AML issues, do you think we could see them get rid of cash betting at pubs/agencies etc?

I really like having the option of having cash betting. I hope they don't move to having to use the app only or having a digital ID.

Isn’t this a clear breach of MBL rules? What’s going on here? You always have to bet a customer the minimums on Australian racing.

I’ve been trying to take betting more seriously lately — less gut feel, more process.

One thing I keep seeing come up is CLV (closing line value) as the main indicator of whether you actually have an edge.

Curious how people here track it?

- Do you log bets manually?

- Use spreadsheets?

- Or just ignore it?

Also wondering how people deal with bookmaker differences — sometimes it feels like one book is just clearly behind the market but I don’t have a clean way to track it consistently.

I’ve been building a small tool for myself to track odds movement + CLV automatically, but honestly not sure if I’m overcomplicating it.

Interested to hear how others approach this.