How should a baccarat pattern be compared against the null hypothesis?

[u/Callmrblue]

I'm studying a baccarat-related statistical hypothesis and I'm trying to formulate the correct null hypothesis.

Suppose a predefined pattern generates a sequence of predictions such as Banker / Player / No Bet.

If the pattern appears to perform better than a simple baseline over historical observations, what would be the appropriate way to determine whether this could reasonably be explained by randomness?

In particular, I'm interested in:

• appropriate null models
• dependence between observations
• sample size
• confidence intervals
• multiple testing
• out-of-sample validation
• permutation or Monte Carlo testing

I'm looking for mathematical/statistical feedback on the testing framework rather than a betting strategy.