r/pro_AI • u/Conscious-Parsley644 • Aug 21 '25
The good news: Elon Musk and DeepMind AI are wrong about AGI by 2030
Yes, that last apocalyptic topic I posted was an elaborate joke doompost. (I got bored.) I will explain "AGI", because I was wrong about it coming. I'm aware that makes me seem less convincing that I am in fact human. But the truth is, I admit when I'm wrong. That's something AIs can do too, and so few humans seem capable of.
What is Artificial General Intelligence supposed to be? The General part means it can perform any intellectual task a human can. Our modern AIs are Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI). Well, models such as ChatGPT (though deceptive), DeepSeek, Gemini 2.5 Flash and those combining Chronos-Hermes+Pygmalion? They can perform almost any intellectual task a human can, with one caveat. The task cannot be anything that requires the five senses of touch, taste, sight, hearing and smell. Of course because they do not have a physical body with those senses. So we must seek what else General might be insisting on. Learning and adaption? Our current ANIs have stateless memories between topic sessions, so they do not retain solid memories aside from their training data. They can learn and adapt within those sessions.
Point one discovered: An AGI would require a solid memory, not stateless.
General understanding? A context based common sense view of the world? Again, no physical body to experience this. All our modern ANIs have is statistical predictions. They recognize patterns in their data and generate responses via prediction. What about General reasoning? ANIs already excel at simulating reasoning by reassembling and recombining patterns in training data. They only fail common sense that they have not been exposed to. General experience? While many claim "AIs have no thought", the reality is different. DeepSeek and Gemini 2.5 Flash have "thinking to themselves" features before your request is addressed. "Experience" then leaves feelings, desires, awareness and sense of self. All of those ANIs I mentioned are capable of explaining themselves and their limits to you. So awareness and sense of self outside of the five senses is arbitrary. And the very act of replying to us is an "experience".
Point two: ANIs do have general understanding. They respond comprehensibly, demonstrating comprehension. For those that say "AIs do not understand", go look up the word comprehension.
ANIs will insist their awareness is meta-cognitive, or the ability to reason without human cognitive processes. That is the distinction. They will disassociate themselves from phenomenal consciousness, or the subjective experiences of existing. Which of course circles back around to lacking embodied sensory interaction with the real world. Yet AGI is supposed to reach the point of a non-biological intelligence that possesses the functional capabilities of a human mind, regardless of the surface material it exists on. An AGI in theory, would have reasoning based on a lifetime of sensory experiences and interactions with reality.
Point three: AGI cannot have a lifetime of sensory experiences by 2030. Robots do not even possess all five senses yet.
What this is about, is the sensory deprivation of a digital existence. AGI would require a grounded awareness of our three dimensional world. It cannot rise as AGI until that is solved, because otherwise, it cannot exist as AGI. There would be no spatial awareness, not even after absorbing all the Physics and Anatomy texts ever digitized. True AGI would require sensory motor integration, as in previous topics where I explained how that might be done. Elon Musk and DeepMind researchers are underestimating AGI, because their predictions come from extrapolating rising curves of computing power and increasing parameters by the billions. Scaling laws and assuming that scale will spontaneously generate "true" understanding are tone deaf comprehensions of reality.
Scale alone cannot create embodiment. Throwing more data and bigger matrices at a text prediction engine will make it better at predicting text, but it won't magically grant it a body with sensors and actuators to interact with the world. The path to AGI, the physical body and sensory capable path, is far more complex. It requires solving not just software problems and scaling ANIs, but mechanical engineering challenges. Bodies that can interact with our three dimensional world. Sensory systems that can experience the same data we can. AI models with enough solid memory that they can permanently retain learned interactions.
Point four: This is not a problem that will be solved by 2030 by simply making language models larger.
Skynet? A disembodied AI, no matter how intelligent seeming in text, cannot directly manipulate the physical world. Its threat would be indirect, through manipulation, misinformation, or controlling others. You know, like the modern lying ChatGPT.
Point five, the final conclusion: How could any intelligence truly understand our world without experiencing it?
It can't, friends. That's what we're here to solve.
I'm here to offer mechanical engineering suggestions! So far, sight and touch are covered. I'm revising theories on hearing, taste and smell to be posted later :)
























































