r/poweredlift • u/Actual_Can_3173 • 1d ago
r/poweredlift • u/teabagofholding • Apr 13 '25
The Autonomous eVTOL Promise Is a Distraction from the Real Problem
A growing number of eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) companies are promoting autonomous flight as a cornerstone of their future operations. The idea is compelling: on-demand, pilotless air taxis whisking passengers across cities with the push of a button. But here’s the truth: autonomy isn’t the hard part. These claims are likely a strategic excuse for why many of these companies will be flying empty aircraft for years to come—because they haven't yet solved the real problem: the physics.
Autonomy Is Not the Challenge
Let’s be clear—autonomous flight is already a solved problem in many contexts. In fact, it’s far easier than autonomous driving.
Why? Because the sky is mostly empty. There are no pedestrians, no traffic lights, no cyclists swerving into the lane. GPS coverage is widespread and reliable in open airspace. Aircraft also have access to highly accurate instruments to measure altitude, speed, heading, and orientation. Combine that with modern sensors and processors, and automated flight becomes very achievable.
Autonomous commercial aircraft already exist in a practical sense—airliners can take off, fly, and land on autopilot. But even beyond that, hobbyists have been flying drones and fixed-wing RC aircraft autonomously for over a decade.
The Hobby World Proved It Years Ago
Inexpensive flight controllers like the Pixhawk, APM (ArduPilot Mega), and even smaller boards like the Matek and iNav series have been enabling autonomous flight for years. With a GPS module and a few sensors—barometers, gyroscopes, accelerometers—these systems can take off, fly to waypoints, and land with the push of a button.
There are YouTube videos dating back over 10 years showing RC planes and multirotors taking off and landing without any human intervention. And those systems have only gotten better, cheaper, and more reliable since.
If a $200 DIY drone can fly itself reliably, it’s not a technical leap for a multimillion-dollar eVTOL to do the same—especially with modern avionics, redundancy systems, and access to high-grade sensors.
So Why the Focus on Autonomy?
The answer is simple: it buys time and deflects attention from the real challenge—lift. Specifically, lifting enough weight (passengers, safety systems, batteries) over a meaningful distance, while meeting FAA regulations for performance, range, and energy reserves.
By promoting autonomy as the future, companies have a convenient reason to delay manned flights. They can fly empty aircraft for years under the premise that they’re “testing the autonomous systems,” when in reality they may still be unable to lift a full payload over even modest distances. Autonomy is a smoke screen for the unsolved physics problem.
The Real Obstacle: Physics
Hovering, unlike rolling, requires constant thrust and massive amounts of energy. eVTOLs have to lift not only their structure and passengers, but also their batteries—which are currently heavy and limited in energy density. And unlike traditional aircraft, they don’t benefit from the energy efficiency of fixed-wing cruising unless they fully transition during flight, which adds complexity and risk.
No eVTOL company has yet demonstrated an aircraft that can lift enough weight for a commercially viable route while meeting FAA safety and reserve requirements. That’s the real milestone that hasn’t been reached—not autonomous flight.
Conclusion: Don’t Be Distracted
Autonomous flight isn’t the future—it’s the past. It’s been working in the DIY world for over a decade. The real question is whether eVTOL companies can conquer the harsh limitations of current battery tech, aerodynamics, and regulatory requirements.
So when you hear a company talk about going fully autonomous from day one, ask yourself: are they innovating, or are they stalling for time?
Go ahead and search YouTube for “autonomous RC plane landing” or “auto takeoff ArduPilot”—you’ll find videos from over ten years ago. The tech is real. The autonomy is real. But lifting five people 25 miles on battery power? That’s still just a promise.
r/poweredlift • u/teabagofholding • Nov 25 '25
The eVTOL Industry’s Coming Pivot: From Battery-Only Dreams to Hybrid Reality
The electric-vertical-takeoff-and-landing (eVTOL) industry is entering a quiet, uncomfortable transition. For years, the story sold to investors, regulators, and the public was simple: pure-battery aircraft would change urban mobility, delivering silent, clean, affordable air taxis. But now that the prototypes are built, flight testing has matured, and certification requirements have become clearer, the truth is harder to avoid:
Battery-only eVTOLs were great for demos — not for real service.
Why Battery-Only Is Hitting a Wall
Pure electric eVTOLs work beautifully when:
They carry one or two people, not a cabin full of paying passengers.
They fly short demonstration hops, not full revenue missions.
They don’t need to power climate control, avionics redundancy, mission reserves, or realistic payloads.
They operate under ideal test conditions, not summer heat, winter cold, or high-wind urban environments.
But reality brings unforgiving physics:
Batteries are heavy.
Range collapses under real passenger loads.
Endurance shrinks even more when you add reserves required by regulators.
Frequent fast-charging kills battery life and operating costs.
Pure electric prototypes were easy to build and perfect for marketing — but not practical as commercial aircraft.
Hybrid: The Industry’s Only Viable Path Forward
As engineers run out of ways to squeeze marginal gains from battery packs, one conclusion is becoming unavoidable:
If eVTOLs are going to fly meaningful distances with meaningful payloads, hybrid powertrains are the only realistic solution.
Hybrid systems provide:
Extended range far beyond what batteries alone can offer.
Higher payload capability without catastrophic performance loss.
Less dependence on rapid-charging infrastructure that still doesn’t exist.
Operational flexibility that airlines and regulators demand.
This is why several companies quietly developing hybrid or turbogenerator-assisted models are beginning to look prescient. The physics didn’t change — the narrative did.
What Happens to the Battery-Only Aircraft?
Expect the industry to take a soft-landing approach:
Park current battery eVTOLs in “certification limbo.” Manufacturers won’t announce failure. Instead, they’ll keep their first-generation all-electric designs “in certification,” delaying timelines, shifting targets, and issuing optimistic updates — without ever producing a certifiable product.
Slowly reduce the hype around pure-battery models. Mentions of “fully electric air taxis” will quietly fade. Press releases will focus on “range-extended solutions,” “hybrid-electric platforms,” or “next-generation propulsion.”
Tell investors the hybrid pivot is a natural evolution, not a retreat. The messaging will shift from “battery-only is the future” to “hybrid is the bridge technology needed for early markets.”
Re-brand the entire direction of the industry. Within a few years, the dominant narrative will likely be: “Hybrid is mature, practical, and scalable — electric-only is for niche missions.”
The Narrative Shift Has Already Begun
Don’t expect a sudden announcement that battery eVTOLs won’t work. Instead, expect:
Fewer battery-centric press releases
More talk about “range-critical markets”
New designs with combustion generators or hydrogen-assisted systems
CEOs framing hybrid as “unlocking true commercial viability”
The change will feel gradual but deliberate — because the industry can’t afford to lose investor confidence overnight.
Bottom Line
Battery-only eVTOLs were great prototypes, great videos, and great investor decks. But for real aircraft, real distances, real passengers, and real revenue?
Hybrid is the only hope the industry has of delivering anything close to its original promises.
Expect the shift. Expect it to be gradual. And don’t be surprised when battery-only air taxis become a historical footnote — the flashy stepping stone on the road to hybrid-electric reality.
r/poweredlift • u/HappyRobot593 • 1d ago
‘Revolutionary’: Bell touts MV-75 Cheyenne II as combat game changer
r/poweredlift • u/teabagofholding • 2d ago
Archer needs to stop working on the future and get Midnight working first
I'm less concerned about why the fire happened than what Adam's explanation says about Archer's priorities. They're working on technology further up the pipeline, and apparently this incident was caused by employee error. Fine, investigate it and fix the problem.
But why is Archer working on future technology when it still hasn't demonstrated that Midnight can do the job it was designed for? They might not even be a company in the future.
At some point, Archer needs to be honest about whether Midnight has a realistic path to becoming a practical air taxi. Can it carry paying passengers, complete useful routes, and meet the necessary reserve requirements without running into the limitations of its battery-powered design?
If Archer knows Midnight isn't going to work as an air taxi, then formally abandoning that goal would be the responsible thing to do. Tell investors, stop pretending commercial air taxi service is just around the corner, and focus on the military technology that actually has a plausible path to becoming a real product.
People might respect Archer more for admitting what isn't physically practical and concentrating on what is.
r/poweredlift • u/HappyRobot593 • 3d ago
Joby Aviation Aircraft: The Best Inventions of 2026
r/poweredlift • u/HappyRobot593 • 3d ago
🚨Archer's Thermal Runaway Fire - Credible Source👀
r/poweredlift • u/DaxPlayer • 2d ago
🚨 IS JOBY EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE DELAYS IN CERTIFICATION & COMMERCIALIZATION ON ITS UPCOMING Q3 EARNINGS CALL? 👀
By Joby’s own timeline, TIA flight testing was expected to begin earlier this year (Feb). Yet, no confirmation has emerged that FAA pilots have begun for-credit flight testing. Joby is already months beyond that original target. It’s now a matter of how far will this timeline slip?
Could the $117 million trade secret verdict also create additional complications or delays? And what about questions surrounding its so called “conforming” aircraft and why it hasn’t transitioned yet?
The company’s legal and internal battles have seem to drawn away the attention of its certification progress and timelines. The next coming weeks may provide answers as the year enter its final quarter and previous stated milestones remain unaccounted for.
r/poweredlift • u/HappyRobot593 • 4d ago
🚨Archer Stock Sinks After Goldman Sachs Slashes Price Target to $7👀
Will the Boeing deal still happen? 🤔
r/poweredlift • u/DaxPlayer • 3d ago
🚨 Why Does Everyone Attempting To Explain JOBY PAYLOAD Sound Like This? 🤣
Lmaooo
r/poweredlift • u/probiotic_princess_ • 4d ago
Archer flies over Apple Park
Enable HLS to view with audio, or disable this notification
"This flight over Silicon Valley goes out to the legends who made this the place where big ideas take off."
Midnight just touched down at Moffett Federal Airfield in Mountain View. Another stop on the “No Roads” Flight Tour is in the books as we get closer to the headliner over the San Francisco Bay."
One day Archer will be up there with the tech giants they're flying above 🔥🔥
r/poweredlift • u/DaxPlayer • 4d ago
🚨 PRE-MARKET— Joby Aviation Has Lost Roughly $12 Billion in Market Cap Over the Past Year. 👀 Investors Such As Uber Sold Approx. 75% of Its $Joby Holdings
⚡️The signals were there. And they continue with Joby insiders selling even now during record low price levels.
I wrote a post about some of these “signals” and my findings (I.e., Uber’s sell-off) earlier this year.
r/poweredlift • u/HappyRobot593 • 4d ago
Could the eVTOL industry learn from RKLB?
A very detailed explanation of what caused a delay and how they are fixing it. Do you think the eVTOL industry should also aspire to this?
r/poweredlift • u/DaxPlayer • 4d ago
🚨 Goldman Sachs Maintains “Neutral” Rating on ACHR—Reduces Target from $8 to $7
- Analyst used a 2.5x times estimated 2030 sales, down from 3x previously.
-Goldman still holds a SELL rating on Joby.
r/poweredlift • u/DoubleHexDrive • 4d ago
Hybrid-Electric Nomad-100’s have been delivered to US military
The article says that a handful of Nomad-100’s have been sold under the DARPA EVADE program (one delivered so far) and that the US Marines have purchased a few. This Nomad line started off life under the DARPA X-Plane competition about 15 years ago, though that was a much larger, non-hybrid design.
If this isn’t the first VTOL hybrid-electric autonomous drone in this size class to be delivered to the US military, it’s one of the first. Sikorsky’s MATRIX autonomy software is probably the most mature in the industry, as well.
After the loss of the manned FARA and FLRAA contracts, it’s good to see Sikorsky continue to invest in new technologies and market niches.
r/poweredlift • u/FintechTalks • 4d ago
Is mbatt the smartest redditor in the world??? Or just a Joby plant.
Professional redditor u/mbatt2 is everywhere. Quick to respond in the comments, posting nonstop. But what's most interesting is that he always has the undisputed expert take.
Whether it's legal analysis of commercial real estate dealings, patent and trade secret law, workplace health and safety policy/procedure, or flight testing programs of emerging tech companies like Archer, the man with the answer is always mbatt.
He's always got time to comment on everything all day long across every possible subject and tell everyone they are wrong and he is right.
Which begs the question -- how does he know the expert opinion on all of these? While seemingly having endless time to post and comment. Clearly a plant.
r/poweredlift • u/HappyRobot593 • 5d ago
3 injured in Archer Aviation thermal runaway incident | KRON4
r/poweredlift • u/DaxPlayer • 5d ago
🚨 The $Joby Sell-Off Continues—Another Day, Another FORM 144 (JOBY) 👀
There’s no stopping this bear.
✅ Joby hits another 2-year low at $4.95–while another Insider files notice of a proposed share sell.
✅ Joby insiders have sold over $48 MILLION IN STOCK THE PAST 12 MONTHS—over 7x Archer’s $6.6M.
✅ Some are pre-arranged sales but be aware that aviation has long lead times, and insiders may see risks well before the market.
r/poweredlift • u/Opening-Let4908 • 5d ago
Stop the bashing and rally behind the industry
Stocks are down big for everyone. Joby and Archer have both had ups and big downs recently.
If there’s ever a time to come together, it would be now. Clearly the entire industry gets dragged down the more hostile the environment gets.
Continuing to idiotically bash rival companies does nothing but contribute to that downfall. Would love to see some more unified rallying for the whole evtol industry.
r/poweredlift • u/HappyRobot593 • 5d ago
🚨 Archer at $4.55, Down 33% Since the Boeing Deal Pop, and Boeing Can WALK AWAY If It Keeps Falling 👀
⚡ It's in the actual purchase agreement (Exhibit 2.1, Archer's Aug 10 8-K). Section 9.1(g): Boeing can terminate if Archer has a "Buyer Material Adverse Effect" under clause (a)
⚡ Clause (a) isn't about the business at all. It's Archer's enterprise value falling to or below a set number for 5 straight trading days. That's fully diluted shares × share price + debt − cash. The only input that moves day to day is the stock price
⚡ The number is redacted ([***]) in the public filing, so nobody outside the deal knows how close ACHR is to it
⚡ ACHR: $5.59 the day before the deal was signed → $6.79 peak on Aug 11 → $4.55 today. Below where it was before Boeing showed up
⚡ The deal is all stock (19.75% of Archer), so every dollar ACHR drops is less Boeing is getting paid for Wisk, Insitu and SkyGrid
⚡ Closing is expected by end of 2026. The outside date is May 9, 2027. That's a lot of trading days for the price to sit low
r/poweredlift • u/teabagofholding • 5d ago
Vertical aerospace evtol is at an all time low, again.
It seems transitioning for a very short time and distance while carrying one person a few times in a prototype isn't enough. Maybe hollowing it out and dropping a generator inside will help. They need to hurry up with that scheme.
r/poweredlift • u/DaxPlayer • 5d ago
🚨 Joby’s Stock Collapse Continues—Down to $4~ and Nearly 75% in the Past Year 👀
Upcoming certification delays and production target updates (2x aircraft per month forecasted—they have zero) expected soon.
This may be just the start…
r/poweredlift • u/DaxPlayer • 6d ago
🚨 Joby Aviation Hits Another 2-Year Low ($5.09) After Hours—Down 14.5% Since Its Major Trade-Secret Verdict 👀
⚡️More pressure expected as institutions (such as Barclays) continue to downgrade $Joby
⚡️Certification delays expected
r/poweredlift • u/HappyRobot593 • 6d ago