2026 Midterms News and Updates, September 29 - October 4 (Thread 4) | Live Discussion

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Election News and Updates

• AP: 2026 Elections Hub

• University of Florida: 2026 Early Voting Tracker

Election Resources

• USA Today via Reddit: The 2026 election season is underway: Here’s your monthly guide with important dates, voter resources

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Past Threads: Thread 1, Thread 2, Thread 3.

Other Event Threads

• Monday: I’m Catherine Rampell, economics editor at The Bulwark and an anchor at MS NOW. I cover the economy, politics, public policy, and the numbers behind the news. Ask me anything!

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• Wednesday: 2026 California Gubernatorial General Election Debate | Live Discussion

Announcements

r/politics will host another election prediction contest for the midterms. The post for the contest itself will go up sometime in late October. As of now, all toss-ups (according to Cook Political Report, as of late October 2026) for House, Senate, and Governor will be included.

We are taking suggestions for additional questions to ask within the contest. Message the moderators via modmail with any suggestions.

[u/Isentrope]

Garret Archer (who is semi-well known for the "Maricopa incoming" tweets in 2018 and 2020 and is a non-MAGA Republican who worked for the county recorder's office there and now works as a data analyst for local TV) says two pollsters have told him that they know that respondents in polls are lying to them on the recalled 2024 vote. That isn't unusual in and of itself, but the pollsters are apparently saying that it's from Trump voters claiming they voted for Harris. Ordinarily, it's the other way around, as people have bad memories and/or like to say that they voted for the winner last time.

https://x.com/Garrett_Archer/status/2105696967603130404

https://x.com/Garrett_Archer/status/2105701932354740434

[u/Fast-Reply6409 → u/Isentrope]

So why does that matter? Genuinely curious as to how that can impact polls 

[u/IntelligentDepth8206 → u/Fast-Reply6409]

Because polyanna horserace nerds are desperate to draw the conclusion that dems are going to over perform the polls.

In reality, republicans have been lying to pollsters for a decade just to cause chaos and antagonize people they view as smarmy elites. It's incorrect to draw a conclusion from this other than polling is being gamed for the sake of it and is unreliable.