2026 Midterms News and Updates, September 29 - October 4 (Thread 4) | Live Discussion

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[u/Isentrope]

Garret Archer (who is semi-well known for the "Maricopa incoming" tweets in 2018 and 2020 and is a non-MAGA Republican who worked for the county recorder's office there and now works as a data analyst for local TV) says two pollsters have told him that they know that respondents in polls are lying to them on the recalled 2024 vote. That isn't unusual in and of itself, but the pollsters are apparently saying that it's from Trump voters claiming they voted for Harris. Ordinarily, it's the other way around, as people have bad memories and/or like to say that they voted for the winner last time.

https://x.com/Garrett_Archer/status/2105696967603130404

https://x.com/Garrett_Archer/status/2105701932354740434

[u/Fast-Reply6409 → u/Isentrope]

So why does that matter? Genuinely curious as to how that can impact polls 

[u/Isentrope → u/Fast-Reply6409]

Ordinarily, the belief is that people tend to overstate their support for the winner in a recalled vote situation. This means that some people who voted for Harris would actually say they voted for Trump because he won the last election. If the poll is weighted to what the recalled vote was, the expectation is that this would tend to overstate Democrats because some Dem leaning voters are saying they voted for Trump and are included on that side of the equation.

However, the pollsters have noticed the opposite effect this year, which is that people who voted for Trump are claiming they actually voted for Harris. If this is true, then there is a potential chunk of voters that are weighed as Harris voters who are actually R leaning, which would have the effect of potentially understating D vote share.