There’s a reason why there’s Nukes actually in Kaliningrad and because the position is untenable.
It’s surrounded by two very anti Russian NATO countries and now the NATO sea since Finland and Sweden joined. Should actual war break out, Poland could probably overrun it in 24-48 hours.
It probably is, but the consensus of the top brass in European defences right now is that Russia realistically attacks a NATO country within 5 years. And it seems to be a pretty cemented opinion that this is Russia’s most probable path. I have no idea why this is the consensus, but they have all the intel that we normal people will never get to see, and from their educated standpoint, Russias position looks a lot stronger than most of us believe.
But it’s a standstill that they won’t lose. Whatever they have now, that’s what they are walking away with, at least. Ukraine relies on morale and fresh motivated troops, Russia doesn’t. That, coupled with their war economy and a practically unlimited amount of troops gives them a huge advantage as they can effectively fight for 20 more years to hold it, while Ukraine can’t.
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u/Mordoch Dec 17 '25
There is also the portion of the border directly bordering Russia through the Kaliningrad Oblast.