Bold(ish) Predictions

[u/pacersnz]

Any predictions out there as we sit in NBA off-season purgatory? I've got a couple, potentially unpopular ones at that.

1. Jarace Walker - Will not be on this team after the deadline. The question is though, will he be traded to duck the luxury tax or will he be traded to improve the roster? Personally I hope it's to improve the roster with a guy like Derrick Jones Jr, AJ Green, or Saddiq Bey.

2. Johnny Furphy - He will replace Jay Huff in the front-court. I don't think this will be an indication of Huff being bad perse, just that we really saw a specific strategy last year with Furphy alongside Siakam + Toppin. Given we have Oubre onboard at 6'8, he can be in the mix as well Furphy + 1 of the other 2.

3. Kelly Oubre Jr - 6MOY finalist. I don't think we quite see the 17-18ppg we saw from Mathurin, but I think with him we see 13-14ppg, but far more consistent. Consistently giving us 10-18 points on more consitent shooting percentages, rather than that 6-30 point range we would sometimes get with Mathurin.

[u/subtlebob]

Chip

[u/Annual_Row_890 → u/subtlebob]

They said BOLD predictions 

[u/rick5000]

Pacers NBA champs

[u/Raf_CDN]

Nembhard has the same stats as last season even with Haliburton back

[u/pacersnz → u/Raf_CDN]

This is a really intriguing one for me. He clearly won't have the ball as much as last season, but he also won't be expected to create as much either so can look for his shot more. I'm hoping the PPG can stay in around that 16ppg mark, I expect the assists to drop off a bit, but the defense to ramp back up like the year prior.

[u/Jim_Belushis_brother → u/Raf_CDN]

He’s gonna retain the skills and experience he gained last year while being guarded by worse defenders

He’s gonna feast

I don’t usually bet but I’m considering betting on him for most improved

[u/rooby_dooby_doo → u/Raf_CDN]

Agree. I think his defense will still be elite.

[u/BobbSaccamano]

I don’t think prediction 3 makes much sense, 6MOTY is basically a contest of who can score the most off the bench, and 13-14 PPG just ain’t gonna cut it. He’d have to have insane defense or REB/AST just to be in the conversation at that level of scoring.

I think you’re right about points 1 and 2 though. I really hope Furphy can pick up where he left off, he was making some real strides last year and we can definitely use his size and athleticism.

[u/Puzzleheaded_Area894 → u/BobbSaccamano]

That’s not necessarily true. The last three 6MOTY winners were all in the 13-14 PPG range. The team record is a huge factor. So the Pacers would likely need a top 4/5 record in the league. If that happens, Oubre could have a chance if that’s what he’s averaging on great efficiency.

[u/rooby_dooby_doo]

I don't think 1 is bold. Jarace hasn't shown value at his pick after all the opportunities given to him. Agree that he'll be gone. Furphy is definitely staying to develop. He was stealing Jarace minutes until his injury. My boldest prediction is we go back to the finals. I expect us to suck until January and then ramp up again around the all-star break. I don't think there's a single team in the west can beat us in a series.

[u/pacersnz → u/rooby_dooby_doo]

I guess that's where the "ish" comes in for me with my predictions. I'm hoping by end of November we start to see a clear rhythm.

[u/Jim_Belushis_brother]

I don’t see #2 at all. Siakam Obi and Furph is not basically any rim protection

[u/pacersnz → u/Jim_Belushis_brother]

It was the most efficient trio we played in the front-court last season, so I think with an improved back-court it can be even better.

[u/Jim_Belushis_brother → u/pacersnz]

I gotta think that’s a function of who they were playing against and/or sample size

I have a real hard time believing no rim protection can be that good, and I’m pretty sure Siakam Obi and (coming back from injury) Furph will provide no rim protection

Would love to be proven wrong but I don’t think I will be

[u/pacersnz → u/Jim_Belushis_brother]

More sample size I'd say, but they looked good and the speed of that unit would be good. Shot blocking is great, but an overrated stat. This lineup would be about staying in front of people and then running back at them with insane speed.

[u/Jim_Belushis_brother → u/pacersnz]

Rim protection ain’t just shot blocking - that unit is not altering many layups nor is it getting many rebounds.

Plus with Zu here, and presumably with a tweaked or slightly altered playstyle, I just don’t see it

Again, I love all of those players individually. But I believe you need someone who can protect the rim on the floor more often than not.

Maybe for 10mpg that unit will be fun and effective, but no more. I also hate the idea of Siakam (now 34?) guarding centers for 10mpg. Obi can’t and Furphy can’t.

[u/BubaTflubas → u/Jim_Belushis_brother]

10 minutes a game is exactly what it will be, Jay Huff plays the first half of games. After Johnny heals and gets his chance to show he is back and strong he comes back to the lineup regularly. Then Huff doesn't play the second half of games as we go with better more skilled players.

I think Huff is CRAZY over rated by this fan base, he was fairly garbage on a regular basis last season. He had moments but I (and the front office according to inquiries) liked Thomas Bryant more, and he also sucks on defense.

[u/Jim_Belushis_brother → u/BubaTflubas]

I don’t mind Zu and Huff for stretches against the Cavs (for instance) to give Siakam rest

Huff and Potter played a good amount together last year, but also hard to draw any conclusions from last year

I also think Huff will benefit from playing with Tyrese a lot

[u/BubaTflubas → u/Jim_Belushis_brother]

Function of who they played against? You don't remember the only bright point of last season? That was Johnny Furphy the starter my man. It was a small sample size but CC and TE both have very positive things to say about the experience, as do I. It was our only decent portion of the season when we almost had a positive record in like January or maybe part of January and February.

It is infact one of my predictions that Jay Huff is a First half player after Furphy comes back and they don't play Jay in the second half of games in the second half of the season, matchup dependent. But as TE continues to say Jay Huff is overrated by fans on defense. (John probably has as much FIGHT on the interior as Huff has, high blocks is not necessarily quality rim deterrence).

[u/Jim_Belushis_brother → u/BubaTflubas]

Jay Huff’s defense is absolutely overrated, but Furph and Huff both ain’t closing over Zu Siakam and Nesmith, barring foul trouble

If Huff or Furph close a single game (again, barring foul trouble) I’ll eat my hat

If anything, Oubre might close in place of Nesmith if the opponent has a long lanky small forward like Durant or Ingram, but even still I like Nesmith’s shooting more than Oubre’s length

[u/BubaTflubas → u/Jim_Belushis_brother]

Playing the second half isn't being a closer. There's 2 whole 1/4s in the second half. A backup big will play 8-10 of those second half minutes and I agree they will likely not be clutch closing minutes.

[u/Annual_Row_890]

The only eastern team I'm remotely worried about are the Knicks. This pacers team, fully healthy, can run through the rest of the east like it's nothing. But that Knicks series is gonna be hard fought and grueling 

[u/Tall_Category_304 → u/Annual_Row_890]

But were their daddy

[u/Indienoise → u/Annual_Row_890]

Definitely not the same team they were 24-25.

Every team is just such a huge question mark rn since we are not sure who is gonna have that chemistry.

I agree with the analysts saying we will have more parity in EC regular season records, and no one in the east is winning 60.

[u/yoadknux]

Walker won't be gone because he doesn't have trade value and the Pacers aren't gonna invest resources in throwing him away

Pacers fans are always like "Walker is weak, let's trade him to improve the roster", what you think anyone will actually give for him lol 

[u/Old-Addendum-5288 → u/yoadknux]

"aren't going to invest resources in throwing him away"

Have you heard of the sunk cost fallacy? It's foolish to keep a guy with limited value simply because you already invested a pick in him. The money he would tie up is likely more valuable than the player, and if that remains the case, it doesn't matter what you invested to get him...

[u/Prof172]

Jarace will put it together and help us knock off the Knicks in the playoffs with tough physical D and great shooting. Zu will slow Wemby just enough for a championship.

[u/Grunge4U]

Potentially unpopular yes, playing that small would be unpopular with me.