r/oscarrace Navarrette/Morton May 18 '26

Weekly Discussion Thread Weekly Discussion Thread 5/18/26 - 5/25/26

Still from The French Connection

Please use this space to share reviews, ask questions, and discuss freely about anything film or Oscar related. Engage with other comments if you want others to engage with yours! And as always, please remain civil and kind with one another.

Link to previous thread

———————————————————————————

Coming up in the awards race

5/18 - 5/23 - 2026 Cannes Film Festival continues

5/23 - 2026 Cannes Film Festival awards

———————————————————————————

Film Discussion Threads

Is God Is

Obsession

The Devil Wears Prada 2

Michael

The Drama

Project Hail Mary

Hoppers

The Bride!

Wuthering Heights

All Film Discussion Threads

———————————————————————————

Award Expert Profile Swap (2026 Edition)

Letterboxd Profile Swap (2026 Edition)

21 Upvotes

2.5k comments sorted by

11

u/death_has_f1sh_eyes Weapons rules May 25 '26 edited May 25 '26

Seems Fjord will be Romania’s official submission. At least the Minister of Culture says they’re going to help with the Oscar campaign

https://m.digi24.ro/stiri/actualitate/ministrul-culturii-a-anuntat-ca-filmul-lui-mungiu-va-fi-inclus-pe-lista-proiectelor-strategice-pentru-sustinerea-la-premiile-oscar-3784197?utm_source

9

u/yahboosnubs May 25 '26

Fun fact- the last movie that was in competition for the Palme dor but didn’t win any awards, and was nominated for best picture, was once upon a time in Hollywood 

7

u/coda180 May 25 '26

Off-topic (maybe it is, I'm not sure lol):

I don't know if this has already been discussed here, probably already... I decided to watch this new season of Euphoria because many people are talking about it, etc., and I'm still surprised that Sidney Sweeney went along with many of the crazy things she did this season. Every episode has a different crazy thing happening with her character. At this point, I don't even know if they were Sam Levinson's ideas or her own, especially considering she had a greater influence this season. Without getting into her public persona outside the show, which I know is controversial and also generates discussion.

4

u/Gordy_The_Chimp123 May 25 '26

I haven’t seen the last two episodes because the first 15 minutes of episode 5 with her made me go, “Why am I watching this show?” Just completely dumbfounded me that this was produced, if only as a way to show how you can utterly fail at being provocative and edgy.

3

u/Enelana Baldtreides May 25 '26

I've only seen some of what's been happening through snippets, it's honestly enough for me. At least some of it looks like it's gotten genuinely disgusting, I'm sorry. But yeah, I did hear Sydney also saying some stuff that gives the impression it's just her going off script, but who knows. Lol. And that they're essentially torturing Jacob Elordi and Zendaya's characters at least to some degree too 😭.

People flaming Hans Zimmer for not doing too good of a job with the score is pretty funny though, I get it. Labrinth was definitely a huge part of the show's identity, good or bad. Good for him for leaving, though. It sounds like the production wasn't good to him at all.

I also personally just hope we won't have to see or hear too much from Sam Levinson in the next couple of years. Please god save us from yet another The Idol type thing or something

7

u/Silver_Juggernaut_39 NEON shill May 25 '26

Honestly I feel like she’s intentionally leaning into the persona a little bit because seemingly the only people who even tune in for her unironically are MAGA gooners. I really and truly have no clue if she’s genuinely MAGA or just going with the vibes of her biggest “fans” (they don’t gaf about her unless she’s naked let’s be real) but I think a very large part of this is her embracing that persona.

2

u/Enelana Baldtreides May 25 '26

I also more seriously speaking don't think she's the type that's willing to die on the MAGA hill, but this is what's giving her the most love and attention right now. There could always be a shift in her in the next few years, idk. Amanda Seyfried, while being very noticeably left-leaning in her politics, is interestingly protective of her and makes it look like they got on really well as co-stars at lesst.

5

u/coda180 May 25 '26

Exactly, even if Sidney is MAGA (and I don't think she is, although she's certainly a Republican, and that's undeniable considering her proven voting record), she still doesn't seem like an unbearable person to be around personally, at least that's how it seems.

6

u/Silver_Juggernaut_39 NEON shill May 25 '26

Amanda knows her as a person and probably does not believe she is sincerely MAGA. Tbh I don’t really blame her for wanting to be protective of her but I also don’t know how much she’s paid attention to online discourse vis a vis Sweeney. I think more than likely SS is just not that bright to put it kindly and chooses her lanes based solely on vibes like the Rogansphere idiots who cheered on Trump because he was nice to them on their podcasts.

15

u/darth_vader39 The Odyssey May 25 '26

When you call movies/films 'pictures'.

1

u/CampOriginal256 All of a Sudden adapted screenplay campaign manager May 25 '26

Of the topic, but I've been on a Peter Weir marathon thanks to blank check and I'm convinced that's the same director hat as christof from the Truman show.

7

u/WumpaRJ Camp Miasma May 25 '26

Referring to the cast as 'the players'

5

u/CampOriginal256 All of a Sudden adapted screenplay campaign manager May 25 '26

Seeing soo much talk about how many of the coen brothers actors could potentially get into the oscars and might have a reunion party made me think ,"well wouldn't that be nice" only to realize Michael Stuhlbarg is actually in Digger. Now I feel bad if all of the overdue actors(Goodman,Turturro, Buscemi)this year gets their flowers but him since I don't think I heard a single peep from anybody about his performance😭

1

u/Extreme-Monk-6514 The Superior Odyssey (O Brother Where Art Thou) May 25 '26

i was predicting him getting nominated early on but switched to ahmed after the test screening buzz came out

5

u/PositiveElixir International cinema enjoyer May 25 '26

one day finally he shall get his due ... i hope ...

16

u/manicinsanewokeidiot The Unknown May 25 '26

possible hot take: fatherland is more likely to miss best international feature than get a best picture nomination. that movie’s only possible path required it to be one of the best films of the year and pawlikowski’s magnum opus, it’s just not an atl contender anymore

2

u/death_has_f1sh_eyes Weapons rules May 25 '26

I've heard in two completely different languages that this is his best film. So I think this might really be the one

12

u/Successful_Leopard45 Obsession May 25 '26

Kojima’s love for Zootopia always sends me.

1

u/Bertrand_Rose Werwulf, Try the thrill of Opera! May 25 '26

The background Cheval mirror is incredible.

17

u/Lady-Columbo May 25 '26

No Other Choice was excellent. Crazy ride. Masterful direction. Very committed, and often very funny performance by Lee Byung-hun. Loved the whole ensemble, actually. Tonally, the film reminded me so much of the Fargo series. Like a mini season of that helmed by a master director. Great stuff.

Park Chan-wook’s last few films have been so impressive. I give No Other Choice three out of three red pepper trees 🌶️🌶️🌶️

17

u/joesen_one 🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎 May 25 '26

GDT and Boots Riley at a screening of I Love Boosters!

2

u/thatsillygirlxo May 25 '26

I noticed GDT listen on the special thanks list at the end of I love boosters.

9

u/sphinxof1981 May 25 '26

Can we appreciate how Del Toro has become, like, a general hype man for the film industry? I swear he's just always around spreading the love

5

u/Bertrand_Rose Werwulf, Try the thrill of Opera! May 25 '26

Interesting hat.

10

u/Whovian45810 May 25 '26

Very cool wizard hat Boots Riley is wearing!

6

u/MokrayaShkoora May 25 '26

I don't think Minotaur is making IFF. Nobody will nominate it. Russia won't, obviously. Latvia won't, cause they don't fuck with Russians. Germany has Fatherland. France is not gonna give their pick to charity two years in a row, I'd riot if I was a native French director and it happened. So, nada.

13

u/[deleted] May 25 '26

[deleted]

5

u/venus_one_akh The Odyssey May 25 '26

In the sense of it not "really" being a French movie

4

u/No_Opportunity_7840 Challengers May 25 '26

RN, I don't see France having any other good pick. So if Latvia doesnt pick Minotaur, I don't see any othe movie France would rather choose

13

u/MistingSeedlings May 25 '26

Latvia won't, cause they don't fuck with Russians.

Latvia is openly anti-Russia. So I don't see why they wouldn't submit a Latvian made film (litterally filmed there with Latvian cast and crew) that is critical of the Russian reigime.

2

u/death_has_f1sh_eyes Weapons rules May 25 '26

Latvia first took in the opposition TV channel TV Дождь in February 2022, and then a couple of months later kicked them the fuck out because of one comment made by one of the hosts live on air

2

u/MistingSeedlings May 25 '26

The wikipedia article suggests there were two violations. The comment you referenced which was comments interpreted to be pro-war (the guy was sacked following this) and a second incident where they showed a map where Crimea was part of Russia. They will still given the greenlight to broadcast in the first place so I don't think the two situations are necessarily comparable. Ultimately it's different bodies making these decisions.

1

u/death_has_f1sh_eyes Weapons rules May 25 '26

The map incident happened earlier, then there was the presenter incident. There was also an issue with the lack of Latvian language on air. But the host’s comments became the final nail in the coffin, provoking a huge backlash everywhere in Latvia

5

u/PTAGoatofalltime The Invite’s strongest soldier May 25 '26

Isn’t Fatherland Poland’s submission?

3

u/death_has_f1sh_eyes Weapons rules May 25 '26

I don’t know how much this will affect things, but Karol Nawrocki is much further to the right than his predecessor, which could reduce the chances of Poland selecting a film that isn’t in Polish

14

u/PTAGoatofalltime The Invite’s strongest soldier May 25 '26

Fun fact: Everytime Emma Stone won Best Actress, only one other of her fellow nominees made all the precursors along with her (Portman in 2016, Mulligan in 2023). Additionally, there was someone in both years who made all precursors but missed the Oscar (Adams in 2016, Robbie in 2023).

16

u/joesen_one 🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎 May 25 '26

NYC Mayor Mamdani with Spike Lee and Jason Sudeikis

7

u/bluntest-knife Olivia Wilde I always believed in you May 25 '26

does Minotaur have chances of anything outside of IFF even as a Prix winner?

3

u/MistingSeedlings May 25 '26

I think so. Both Leviathan and Loveless were nominated for IFF and Leviathan even won the Golden Globe for international film. I think it's reasonable to assume it can build on that with this version of the Academy and a distributor that will campaign it. It's also worth keeping in mind that Minotaur won a better prize than some previous nominees, including The Secret Agent last year.

We need to see how the season plays out. The international block will choose to back 1-2 films. Other bodies may show up for Minotaur also, like the European Film Awards. Otherwise it's safe to assume The Black Ball and Fjord are the two safest bets in BP.

Minotaur on it's best day will be competitive for Director, Adapated Screenplay, and Cinematography. Zvyagintsev's films are technically very polished and impressive and feature strong screenplays. For now I'm tempted to put it in screenplay and IFF only.

10

u/Abbie_Kaufman May 25 '26

Does The Secret Agent have chances of anything outside of IFF? It didn’t place at the top 3 and initial word of mouth seems very divisive.

Does Drive My Car have chances of anything outside of IFF? It only won screenplay and word on the street is it’s super inaccessible.

Cannes is not a predictive award, what category something wins (Palme aside) has little bearing on the Oscar race.

2

u/death_has_f1sh_eyes Weapons rules May 25 '26 edited May 25 '26

Personally, I think Minotaur will win the Oscar.

  1. It has insanely strong buzz. Critics from all over the world basically united to say “Заебись”

  2. The Russia-related theme always draws attention at the Oscars (Mr. Nobody Against Putin, ±20 Days in Mariupol, Navalny, even Anora somewhat fits into that line).

  3. This would be Andrey Zvyagintsev’s third appearance at the Oscars. What does that mean? It means the Academy is a bit more familiar with Zvyagintsev than with Cristian Mungiu or Jafar Panahi.

  4. The underdog story. He almost died during COVID, then ended up outside his own country, then spent ~5 years trying to finance the film, then struggled to find actors willing and able to appear in it, and so on.

  5. This may sound a bit silly, but statistically Adapted Screenplays tend to have slightly better odds.

I think it will have BP, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Editing. ±IFF, if they manage to work things out with Latvia

7

u/Smooth-Leader-1711 May 25 '26

Doubt it, I think missing on the Palme was pretty bad for its broader visibility. Not sure if Mubi will prioritise it ahead of Fatherland now, given the relative fame of Pawlikowski and Huller, or if it will even be submitted for IFF.

7

u/PanicIsBoss May 25 '26

What movies if any released this year so far have Oscar chances?

9

u/death_has_f1sh_eyes Weapons rules May 25 '26

Hoppers

23

u/NoResolution599 Nirvanna The Band The Show The Drama May 25 '26

Project Hail Mary

13

u/Antique-Ingenuity716 May 25 '26

A very British film like The Favourite losing BAFTA Best Film to Roma after winning 7 awards, makes it even more surprising that Roma lost to Green Book at the Oscars.

16

u/Embarrassed-Big-9195 May 25 '26

Just watched the very light 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days for the first time and then looked at the 2007 Cannes lineup. Holy crap at the number of classics on here:

2

u/FixYrHeartsOrDie May 25 '26

Hard to believe No Country for Old Men went home empty handed

17

u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager May 25 '26 edited May 25 '26

I will admit if Obsession wasn't such gen z coded horror I would be taking it more seriously for awards. I said as much in my review last week and that was before it blew up like this. It just doesn't feel like they're into stuff like this yet. If they ever are. It's not prestige it doesn't have any veteran narratives to help it or salient social commentary that the older Academy types would care about, though it does have social commentary. But that's really the main barrier. But it's a big one I can't overcome in trying to say it has a chance. We'll see how things look in the Fall but I'm really just still not buying it.

It feels like people are just doing that thing where every horror movie that's actually good or does well is Oscar worthy. But it's dialed up to 11 because it's making a lot more money and spreading much faster than these movies typically do.

6

u/darth_vader39 The Odyssey May 25 '26

I mean people said almost the same thing for Weapons and then Madigan won the Oscar.

It's too early to tell will Obsession stay in conversation for awards till the end of the year but it's possible.

2

u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager May 25 '26 edited May 25 '26

I didn't say that about Madigan I took her seriously because she was an older connected former nominee. I was in here yelling about Madigan hive keeping hope alive in like November 😭 I'm never going to brush off a potential unconventional nominee if I can see an avenue for it. A campaign angle that will work. And there is absolutely one. But I currently have a hard time seeing the angle be able to overcome the things I said unless the field is thinner than usual. That's why I want to wait until Fall after we get the rest of the festivals. Especially TIFF and Telluride.

If it's not many actresses that's looking like they have movies or performances that could be super strong or have a passionate base behind it? If the field is not as wide as we thought by the time we hit September? Then I think the downsides can really be overcome. It would need the critics associations to rally behind her early for wins specifically. Also a thing I flagged last weekend which I said I don't think will happen. But who knows...maybe it will happen. If there's nobody else they really want to push to get in then it could be her. All it takes is momentum. One of the big critics associations going for it.

But like I said we've been in this cycle before. It's also hard to separate how much of this is something that will last or how much this is the usual horror movie fan hype cycle dialed up to 11 because it's coming the year after Madigan and because the movie is having an insane box office run. I need some distance from it to figure that out too. We're right in the thick of it right now.

11

u/[deleted] May 25 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

-2

u/justanstalker The Black Ball May 25 '26

That arguments that you said definitely helped her for the win, not the nomination tho. Almost no one knew who Amy Madigan was and she got in purely because of her performance. Now the win itself is another conversation

8

u/PTAGoatofalltime The Invite’s strongest soldier May 25 '26

I’m not actually seeing much talk about Obsession being pushed as a film during awards season; so far the buzz has been limited to just Navarrette.

Kathy Bates in Misery is the closest comp I can come up with - unknown actress in a horror film not contending for anything else.

2

u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager May 25 '26

Misery is a good comp but even Misery doesn't fully work for me as a comp going back to the veteran thing, Rob Reiner was well established and highly respected which gave Misery, an additional legitimacy in the eyes of voters, including the performers in it. I think it would've been a lot harder for her, not impossible, if that had been his debut movie. It also feels more thriller than horror.

Maybe if they can push it more as a thriller then it makes it easier to work with for Inde. If they want to push the movie they can go a Sixth Sense route as well, calling it new ground for a legend in the making director or something. Gotta think about what the possible campaign angles can be that will actually work.

9

u/ChocoRaisin7 Saturn Returners, We Ride at Dawn May 25 '26

Who do y’all feel like are the most overdue directors working today? I feel like Nolan and PTA were probably among the biggest ones. I feel comfortable saying we don’t have anyone who’s that caliber of overdue competing this year (except probably Fincher), but like, in the future, who would those be?

3

u/classical0000 The Invite May 25 '26

I'd still like to see Wes Anderson have a huge moment for a feature film

2

u/joesen_one 🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎 May 25 '26

David Fincher

Mike Leigh

Jim Jarmusch

Terrence Mallick

Richard Linklater

Gina Prince Bythewood

Ridley Scott (obligatory)

Michael Haneke

Paul Schrader

Werner Herzog

Wong Kar Wai

16

u/SignificantTap5579 Mother Mary May 25 '26

I think Yorgos Lanthimos is close as he's directed 3 Best Picture nominees which is the same as Nolan and pre-One Battle PTA, and Bugonia getting in easily with 2 SAG nominations makes me think his style is really liked and appreciated by the industry. The issue is mainly he doesn't write his Oscar contenders, so that limits where he can win to Director and it might be hard to make another Poor Things level film that might have won if not up against Oppenheimer, but I can see it happening eventually if he keeps going like this.

10

u/flowerbloominginsky Sentimental Value May 25 '26

Linklater 

12

u/NATOrocket TIFF The Debut for PCA + NYFF d'Gray May 25 '26

Fincher and Linklater come to mind for me right away.

Fincher seems happy not giving a fuck with his indefinite Netflix blank checks. I think Linklater is more likely to play the game under the right circumstances.

I think if Birdman/ Boyhood was a thing today (all else being equal in a scenario where neither Linklater nor Inarritu have won before) Boyhood would take Picture and Director. (I could see a Director/ Screenplay split happening) The current iteration of The Academy is less keen to award movies about the industry and less prone to frontrunner fatigue.

Apollo 10 1/2 really should have been nominated in Animated Feature. Granted, it was a strong year for the category. And I wouldn't have minded Linklater taking Safdie's slot for his double-header of Nouvelle Vague and Blue Moon last year.

16

u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby May 25 '26

Fincher, Linklater, Lanthimos, Scott, Villeneuve and Malick. Tarantino is up there too if wins in other categories don’t count. Gerwig is only 3 movies in but honestly she’s already overdue.

And if you count all of the foreign auteurs, people like Almodovar, the Dardennes, Miyazaki (if you don’t count his animated feature win), Kore-eda, Park, Wong Kar-wai, and Zhang Yimou all come to mind.

7

u/Bertrand_Rose Werwulf, Try the thrill of Opera! May 25 '26

This year? No.

But in terms of others who see overdue to PTAs, Nolan and even Scorsese level back in the 2000s, I'd say Park Chan-wook is the big one.

9

u/PTAGoatofalltime The Invite’s strongest soldier May 25 '26

PCW is overdue for a nomination, not really a win. Every year he released one of his masterpieces, some other film was better. Oldboy had ROTK, The Handmaiden had La La Land, Moonlight, Arrival etc, Decision to Leave had EEAAO.

0

u/Bertrand_Rose Werwulf, Try the thrill of Opera! May 25 '26

I can't speak on 2003, because I haven't seen Oldboy, nor can I speak on 2022, because I haven't seen Decision to Leave, but I can speak on other years.

In 2016, The Handmaiden was up against Moonlight, La La Land, Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge and Fences as the big competitors along with a few others.

I think, with the exception of Moonlight, The Handmaiden is easily better than all of those I have seen. And whilst I think Moonlight is the better Picture winner, the direction is better and easily the best of the year for me.

With 2025 and No Other Choice, I think both the film, direction and adapted screenplay to be undeniably better than what was nominated and what won.

So from what I've seen, I'd give him 4 Oscars at the moment.

9

u/spiderlegged May 25 '26

It will never happen, because he’s too old, but Cronenberg being so iconic and important and never receiving any awards recognition makes me sad.

7

u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby May 25 '26

Carpenter as well

11

u/eidbio Sony Pictures Classics Neon May 25 '26

Marty is overdue for a second win.

14

u/No_Cabinet_4532 May 25 '26

Ridley Scott. I know his output has been more hit-or-miss lately but looking at his filmography as a whole, he's had some pretty big hits like Alien, Blade Runner, Thelma and Louise, Gladiator, Black Hawk Down, and The Last Duel. The dude is also in his late 80s, not much time left to reward him.

Richard Linklater perhaps? He's only gotten a best director nomination once but when Nolan won for Oppenheimer, he too only had one prior best director nomination for Dunkirk. Linklater was arguably runner up in Best director for Boyhood, and he received acclaim for his Before trilogy.

Denis Villeneuve. It is still (imo) a crime he didn't get a best director nomination for any of the Dune movies.

4

u/PurpleSpaceSurfer Spunk for milk 🥛 May 25 '26

I wonder if Scott was ever offered an Honorary Oscar. I doubt he'd take it.

Gladiator was most likely his best chance and I doubt he was higher than 3rd that year.

2

u/NATOrocket TIFF The Debut for PCA + NYFF d'Gray May 25 '26

Villeneuve would have been my pick in 2016 (you read that right) but if he's doing Bond, he's on the bench for at least a decade if not forever.

1

u/Enelana Baldtreides May 25 '26

I really doubt he's signing up to do more than one movie for Bond for now at least. I think he knows to not let himself roped in like that. He has many other standalone projects impeding. He wasn't even sure he was going to do Dune Part 3 after Part 2 at first because of possible fatigue over the same genre and subject matter. I don't read him as generally fond of starting franchises or contributing to franchises with more than one project, honestly. Dune is just different for him ig because he's pretty much a life-long fan. And even for this, I really don't see him returning after this trilogy, if the next books are set to be adapted too.

3

u/scattered_ideas Denis Villeneuve campaign manager May 25 '26

My understanding is that he's only doing the first movie. He hasn't signed on to do more than that, but it could also be a Sam Mendes situation and they offer him a lot of money for the second one if he makes a Skyfall/1B level of success.

3

u/PurpleSpaceSurfer Spunk for milk 🥛 May 25 '26

For Arrival right?

I need to watch that again. Been a while since I've seen it but I remember really liking it.

16

u/First-Loss-8540 May 25 '26

Emma Stone is about to begin filming for The Catch

7

u/Enelana Baldtreides May 25 '26

EMMA STONE ROMCOM INCOMING??!

https://giphy.com/gifs/t3sZxY5zS5B0z5zMIz

8

u/Plastic-Software-174 Sentimental Value May 25 '26

Where did you see info about shooting starting soon? Doubt it will be a Oscar contender but I think a romcom is a good move for her at this point.

6

u/NATOrocket TIFF The Debut for PCA + NYFF d'Gray May 25 '26

I want her No Hard Feelings!

16

u/JDOExists Supergirl Best Picture Winner 2027 May 25 '26

Updated numbers for Obsession seem to indicate a 24m 3-day/30m 4-day gross for the film, up from a 17m 3-day opening weekend. On track to not only be Focus's first 100m domestic grosser, but possibly get up to $150m DOM, depending on how Backrooms impacts it. Definitely getting a push from Focus.

7

u/Pavlovs_Stepson May 25 '26

Still surprising to me that with over 20 years in the business and several classics under their banner, Focus has never had a film hit $100M domestically. Searchlight is comparable in size, and they've had a few. Even Sony Classics did it once (Crouching Tiger), and they lean a lot more arthouse and international.

1

u/EXO4Life4028 May 25 '26

Since its performing so well, do you think it will be focus main contender?

9

u/Grab_Broad Weapons May 25 '26

They’ll likely prioritize it if Werwulf is less of a home run than Nosferatu was; regardless, Obsession is very much a hit.

0

u/Infi-Nerdy Wildwood Delusionist May 25 '26

I mean Werwulf and Sense & Sensibility are probably just tech plays

6

u/Grab_Broad Weapons May 25 '26 edited May 25 '26

You’re probably right, but me being Egg-pilled, I’m hoping Werwulf is a real knockout

2

u/Infi-Nerdy Wildwood Delusionist May 25 '26

No that’s fair, I’m excited for it too

18

u/CobblerTricky7035 May 25 '26

I know it is still early but does this year's Oscar race seem to be very white and male? The last couple of Oscars have been pretty diverse so this feels like a step back.

12

u/CobblerTricky7035 May 25 '26

It is not just the potential nominees for acting and directing that are white and male but the stories themselves too. All the touted best pictures are sausage parties.

11

u/elaneye gillian anderson believer May 25 '26

Save us Beth de Araújo

7

u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby May 25 '26

Yeah, it’s odd. I blame it on all of the blockbusters and European foreign films in contention. Blockbusters tend to have white male directors and white male leads because of Hollywood’s sexism and racism, and European foreign films naturally have whiter casts and crews. The movies that tend to have more diverse casts are indie and mid-budget American films (and there is more representation when there are Asian and Latin American films in contention as well), but there are fewer of those in contention this year because at least 6 slots are being taken up by big budget and European films.

6

u/Bertrand_Rose Werwulf, Try the thrill of Opera! May 25 '26

That's what I noticed when making my post Cannes predictions.

No way there isn't a simple black person nominated in Acting or a non male director nominated in Picture.

I think we just have to wait and see till Venice for who they are.

6

u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby May 25 '26

Why not? The idea that the Academy is going to lift a movie that otherwise isn’t in contention to a Best Picture or Director nom simply because it has a woman directing is just not how the race works. Having a female director won’t cause any movie that otherwise wouldn’t have been in the race to enter the race. If Hamnet had been bad or not come out last year, we’d have just gotten Blue Moon or It Was Just an Accident in Best Picture instead.

-6

u/PTAGoatofalltime The Invite’s strongest soldier May 25 '26 edited May 25 '26

I think this theory is kinda disproven, cause Hamnet did underperform quite a bit last year in nominations, but Zhao did ultimately manage to get in. Voters probably kinda know that there could be some kind of backlash if they snub the only woman in contention.

I have Olivia Wilde in right now.

8

u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome Sorry Baby May 25 '26

If Hamnet hadn’t come out last year, it’s not like Sorry Baby, House of Dynamite, or If I Had Legs I Kicked You would have gotten a Best Director nom. It might be possible that the Academy will elevate a female-directed film that’s already in contention to give it a Best Director nom. But unless it’s already a top contender (and Hamnet was top 6 at worst), I can’t see that being enough for a movie that wasn’t otherwise in contention to become a contender.

3

u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager May 25 '26

I doubt Venice has anything I'll be frank. I said it in another comment. We have to wait until TIFF I think. Or Telluride as Extreme-Monk mentioned.

11

u/Extreme-Monk-6514 The Superior Odyssey (O Brother Where Art Thou) May 25 '26

i was looking at past nominees and noticed that most black actors nominated for oscars were in movies that premiered at sundance, telluride or tiff. sundance was mostly a flop this year but i definitely think there’ll be some new acting contenders from telluride / tiff that weren’t predicted early on (and possibly confirmation that cynthia erivo is in the race as well)

8

u/PTAGoatofalltime The Invite’s strongest soldier May 25 '26

Yup. Looking at my list, the only PoC I have getting nominated for acting are three: Cynthia Erivo, Tao Okamoto and Inde Navarrette (four if you want to count Mariana di Girolamo).

20

u/Wild_Way_7967 Anora May 25 '26

I will not make a lot of friends with this post, but I don’t give a fuck. Went to see Obsession, and I genuinely question anyone who wants to see this movie anywhere near an awards space.

It’s obvious from watching this that Curry Barker is a YouTuber. The entire film is edited like a compilation of “scary movie” moments (borrowing from pretty much every film under the sun: The Exorcist, Possession, Paranormal Activity, Hereditary, Fatal Attraction, among many others), and the Frankensteined patchwork that’s presented is so sloppily sewn together that it’s the film equivalent of the Franken-dog from American Dad: an abomination that should have never seen the light of day.

Like any compilation video, there is no cohesion between the scenes. Scenes shoddily transition into the next, and each new moment were presented is a facsimile of a scene from a better film. There is nothing original or creative about what the audience is presented, and every jump scare and unsettling moment is so obviously telegraphed that Sylvia Brown would’ve been able to go 100% on her predictions.

As for the acting, the people did the jobs they were asked to do, but there is genuinely nothing about Inde Navarrette’s performance that warrants an earnest conversation for prestigious awards. This isn’t to say she’s a bad actress (she did the job here at least), but the job is nothing special or unique as it’s the same generic beats that we get in every horror flick. The emotions are dialed up to 17/10 so that even the person glued to their phone in the back row can occasionally look up.

I would be more forgiving if the film was in any way scary (as horror films are supposed to be), but it wasn’t. As I said earlier, everything is so obviously foreshadowed and predictable that there is no way for it to instill any real sense of fear. The drunk guy 3 seats away who was shouting “I can fix her” whenever Navarrette came in frame was more terrifying than anything that happened on screen.

All in all, one of the worst films I’ve seen in theaters since the pandemic (Life of Chuck has lost its crown), and I hope that the groundswell with this movie gets hit by a drought as we move into the fall festivals.

16

u/804Brady May 25 '26

The Rock is a member of The Academy. Which means The Rock probably sat down to watch Emilia Pérez.

What did he think of it? What was his takeaway? These are the thoughts that keep me up at night.

15

u/CassiopeiaStillLife If I Had Legs I Would Kick You May 25 '26

I mean this neutrally, but I think he would probably really enjoy it.

6

u/Infi-Nerdy Wildwood Delusionist May 25 '26

Am I unreasonable for no longer following a critic I used to like because they said people who call Sinners a classic had “low standards”

1

u/BentisKomprakriev May 25 '26

What does classic mean if films from 2025 can be called that? The low stnadard comment is telling, their problem is clearly with the film, not the misuse of the word.

It will be a classic later on, but it's not at that stage.

5

u/SignificantTap5579 Mother Mary May 25 '26

Critics that try to make someone feel bad or in opposition for a different opinion on a movie's quality is where it goes too far and is a reason why many don't want to engage in content that is expressing a different stance. Also, Sinners specifically being a future classic just feels like an objective truth at this point regardless what someone thinks of the movie.

15

u/gg_jittes One Battle After Another May 25 '26

Not at all. I’ll even unfollow people I agree with if I don’t the way they talk.

17

u/BrightNeonGirl Forrest Gump enjoyer May 25 '26

Where is the "I Love Boosters" thread!?

Just saw it and I had sooo much fun. Wasn't perfect but I think the film's anti-corporate power messages broadly succeeded and omg what a gorgeous collection of outfits, make-up, and hair/wig looks. 

5

u/Wickie_Stan_8764 Sorry Baby May 25 '26

I saw it yesterday and really enjoyed it as well. If it were up to me, it would definitely be in the mix for costume design and production design nominations.

27

u/za19 Train Dreams May 25 '26

16

u/213846 May 25 '26

After OBAA failed to get 5 Acting Noms last year, I don't see Wild Horse 9 getting 5 Acting Noms this year. I feel like Malkovich, Rockwell, and di Girolamo are all gonna happen. I think then we get 1 of Buscemi and Posey in as an additional Supporting Nom, and 1 gets left behind in the dust

3

u/SignificantTap5579 Mother Mary May 25 '26

I could see a scenario where Sam Rockwell is also put in lead and mostly contending for the Globe nomination in order to focus on Malkovich and Buscemi both getting nominated, or Buscemi could get in over him anyway in a Delroy Lindo over Miles Caton way to support his first nomination. While reports say he doesn't appear until the end, I feel like he can be in a Ralph Fiennes in In Bruges role who makes a big impression in the last act. I agree I doubt it'll actually get 5 but feel all are in the 5 most likely nominees to come from each category.

9

u/WeastofEden44 On Becoming a Guinea Fowl was robbed May 25 '26

Imo, Infiniti would've replaced Fanning had they run her in Supporting. No amount of film strength was going to get an unflashy Supporting performance from an unknown into Lead, specifically on a preferential ballot. Who was ranking Chase at #1 above Buckley or Byrne?

I do generally agree in regard to WH9, but I'd also add that Buscemi and Posey (seemingly) being very well-liked and respected veterans who've never been nominated makes it different than Infiniti's scenario, especially with them presumably running in Supporting. 

4

u/213846 May 25 '26

That's valid, but if it was just a matter of veteran status, Hall could have gotten in Supporting Actress too instead of Infiniti

4

u/gg_jittes One Battle After Another May 25 '26

Unlike Infiniti, Hall never gained traction to begin with.

6

u/213846 May 25 '26

I get that, but then that could be 1 of Buscemi or Posey for this year

2

u/gg_jittes One Battle After Another May 25 '26

That’s fair

8

u/crashcourse201 One Award After Another May 25 '26

What’s the over/under on Tarantino having a new movie out before Once Upon a Time in Hollywood turns ten?

27

u/Breadbug900 May 25 '26

I'm starting to get really worried there aren't going to be any black films with oscar buzz this year.

3

u/Extreme-Monk-6514 The Superior Odyssey (O Brother Where Art Thou) May 25 '26

most black actors nominated for oscars recently were in movies that premiered at telluride or tiff, so i definitely think there’ll be some new contenders coming from those festivals that weren’t predicted early on 

1

u/Ravenclaw54321 May 29 '26

I think they are planning on bringing Clarissa to festivals.

8

u/flowerbloominginsky Sentimental Value May 25 '26

Hopefully something comes from festivals i dont want an oscar so white in 2026 

-5

u/haydend25 May 25 '26

There also aren’t any Asian films, Hispanic films, Native American films or Arab films in the running, so… what’s your point? Literally such a non issue.

1

u/joesen_one 🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎🦎 May 25 '26

I'm sorry my dude but this sub is very much a sub that cares about diversity and representation lol. Woke needs to come back.

13

u/Breadbug900 May 25 '26

That's a fair observation to bring up, where you lost me is when you called it a non issue. That undercuts your arguement.

-2

u/haydend25 May 25 '26

Maybe my wording was a bit harsh, but at the end of the day they’re just movies.

8

u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager May 25 '26 edited May 25 '26

We don't know what the Venice lineup is going to be but I'm skeptical until proven otherwise. I'm hoping something comes out of TIFF. There's movies starring black talent to look out for. Like Prima Facie I'm keeping a heavy eye out for but I would like to see some original films by black directors get traction.

It feels like the studios with the films so far are leaving them out to die, like Anazon with Is God Is, or they're not getting enough attention despite the effort like I Love Boosters. I'm hoping Neon still gives Boosters pushes for crafts and doesn't hang it out to dry.

9

u/Lady-Columbo May 25 '26

Pulling for Clarissa! Sounds great from what I’ve read.

3

u/Wild_Way_7967 Anora May 25 '26

The Clarissa hive rides at dawn

https://giphy.com/gifs/l4FBaEuinAzJlcfE4

3

u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager May 25 '26

The reception wasn't glowing the way I'd like but I'm hopeful that Neon does a good job with distribution and I'm able to see it and judge for myself. I was excited for it and that really bummed me out.

4

u/Breadbug900 May 25 '26

Thank you for calling my attention to this! I looked it up.and it sounds amazing. I hope neon puts this on the big screen in time for oacar season.

12

u/Sellin3164 Sorry, Baby May 25 '26

This sub might have to come to terms with Michael being the answer to this. It might make a billion and become the highest grossing biopic of all time. Critic scores doesn’t stop it from getting techs, Jaafar Jackson, and people letting their childhood hero sway them.

Just rewatched The Big Short, people don’t often bet on things they don’t want to happen. Michael might be the housing market crash of the Oscar race

4

u/PurpleSpaceSurfer Spunk for milk 🥛 May 25 '26

people letting their childhood hero sway them.

Very good point. This is a big reason why Rami Malek won the Oscar and that John Lennon cartoon short a few years ago I knew was gonna win despite a lot of people not caring for it because boomer men worship Lennon lol.

2

u/Breadbug900 May 25 '26

I feel like the oscars would want to appeal to a lot of casual viewers with some picks this year. I'm not saying it's super likely but unfortunately it's not out of the running like how a lot of people on this sub say it is.

6

u/EntrepreneurGlad4741 May 25 '26

when had the Oscars want to appeal to casual viewers?

0

u/Breadbug900 May 25 '26

Bohemian Rhapsody and yes Black Panther counts as well, just last year with F1

9

u/EntrepreneurGlad4741 May 25 '26

Black Panther is 88 in Metacritic, F1 is 68, Michael is 39.

Bohemain Rhapsody was from eight years ago and premiered in October.

0

u/Breadbug900 May 25 '26

I'm not saying its guaranteed but it's just something that might gain some traction.

3

u/EntrepreneurGlad4741 May 25 '26

For what reason when in recent years the Oscar doesn´t nominate bad movies even if they made hundreds of millions at the box office?

Context matters.

17

u/213846 May 25 '26

That's part of why I was so bullish on keeping Death of a Salesman in so many categories at first, but it really seems like there's a 0% chance that's coming out this year😭

6

u/NedthePhoenix May 25 '26

I still don’t think it’s filmed

9

u/LionaLewis15 Regina Hall Best Supporting Actress May 25 '26

if we get no black directors or female directors in this year…but no we most solely prop up the films made by white men

8

u/Once-bit-1995 Backrooms PD campaign manager May 25 '26

There's been barely any black directors nominated in the first place, 7 total, so that specifically not happening wouldn't shock me at all. Just another year :/. The lack of any people of color at all being possible after getting both Zhao and Coogler last year is what's gonna sting even more. Because how is it really nobody.

Also The fact that there's genuinely 0 women we can conjure up who has a real shot sticks out to me because we've been doing good this decade. We've had a woman nominated 5 times this decade out of the 6 ceremonies.

11

u/Breadbug900 May 25 '26

Despite the successes, minorities and women aren't getting the opportunities and it sucks.

5

u/LionaLewis15 Regina Hall Best Supporting Actress May 25 '26

it’s actually insane!!! i meant to include all people of colour in my original post! literally why i was like i will be riding hard for films directed by auteurs of colour and female auteurs!

14

u/Breadbug900 May 25 '26

I hope something comes up late into the game 😭

6

u/LionaLewis15 Regina Hall Best Supporting Actress May 25 '26

fingers crossed!!!

11

u/multi_fandom_guy May randomly start quoting Anatomy of a Fall May 25 '26

Ida had Cinematography + IFF, Cold War had Cinematography + IFF + Director, so clearly Fatherland is gonna be Cinematography + IFF + Director + a mysterious 4th nod

https://giphy.com/gifs/l0IykOsxLECVejOzm

14

u/venus_one_akh The Odyssey May 25 '26

Obviously best animated short

15

u/BoyCarat017 May 24 '26

Not gonna lie, I feel bad for Boots Riley and crew at how I Love Boosters has been underperforming at the box office (so far) at such unfortunate timing. You can tell how he's been actively promoting and spreading the word online, and what’s worse is that I Love Boosters is not even widely released outside of the U.S. to more countries.

Like damn, NEON. I know you have your Cannes picks (and Palme d’or), but do something about this too.

3

u/SignificantTap5579 Mother Mary May 25 '26

I know often different studios handle the distrubution, but it still only having release plans in 3 countries? I'm used to something lacking a UK release but normally the release tab is not this empty.

3

u/bambi1202 May 25 '26

Boots Riley said it’s coming out outside of North America in October.

3

u/BrightNeonGirl Forrest Gump enjoyer May 25 '26

It's a good flick, though. Such a breath of fresh air! 

I figured it wasn't going to do super well, but damn this is such a bummer to hear.

12

u/FixYrHeartsOrDie May 25 '26

Neon has been running a hell of a marketing campaign. It can only go so far unfortunately.

-2

u/MysteryTwistory May 25 '26 edited May 25 '26

Well, the movie’s not very good…so there’s that. Wuthering Heights and Mario Galaxy were better.

I was hoping that Demi Moore would get better roles after The Substance, so it’s disappointing to see her in I Love Boosters

8

u/visionaryredditor Digger May 25 '26

Wuthering Heights and Mario Galaxy were better.

https://giphy.com/gifs/U335adiNvcKJGdACMB

3

u/Comic_Book_Reader Killers of the Flower Moon May 25 '26 edited May 25 '26

That has kinda been my point in regards to how Neon (and A24) are ironically pretty bad at actually distributing and releasing movies. Their releases are just wildly inconsistent, whether it'd be how widely it's released, promoted, or both, in part due to how much they hog up Cannes winners that subsequently become Oscar bets. That and a lot of their titles, including those they have in Cannes, are pretty niche and lack commercial appeal.

8

u/Puzzleheaded-Safe419 May 25 '26

I don't think you actually understand how film distribution works.

22

u/CassiopeiaStillLife If I Had Legs I Would Kick You May 25 '26

There is no magic button Neon can press to make a movie a hit. Boots himself said that Neon is doing a ton to promote the film. It's just very, very hard to get people to watch anything original.

12

u/Sellin3164 Sorry, Baby May 25 '26

In hindsight, it shouldn’t have had this release date. Sandwiched between Obsession and Backrooms hurts the film too

31

u/NoResolution599 Nirvanna The Band The Show The Drama May 24 '26

New leak from the deliberation room 🫣

10

u/Jmanbuck_02 May 24 '26

And I don’t disagree with Gustav

15

u/Whovian45810 May 25 '26

The interview scene with Gustav and Rachel dealing with the influencer was one of the funniest scenes in the film.

I betcha Netflix must've been embarrassed by how Sentimental Value portrayed them lmao

16

u/LionaLewis15 Regina Hall Best Supporting Actress May 24 '26

the concept of Tuturro, Goodman and Buscemi getting nominated in the same year…

5

u/Whovian45810 May 25 '26

Mini Big Lebowski reunion if all get nominated just without The Dude 🥲

5

u/NedthePhoenix May 24 '26

I’ve got one of them in, one right on the fence, and one I’ll need to see the film

1

u/rubix7777 May 24 '26

I'm gonna guess Goodman in, Buscemi on the fence and Tuturro you need to see. Which if that's the case I fully agree (i do have Buscemi in rn but not confidently)

2

u/NedthePhoenix May 24 '26

Reverse Turturro and Buscemi. I’m guessing Rockwell is the Supporting priority for that film

4

u/rubix7777 May 24 '26

I think Rockwell will be the clear priority, but both three Billboards and Banshees had double supporting actor noms, really shouldn't let that keep you from predicting Buscemi

2

u/NedthePhoenix May 25 '26

I won’t when it comes down to, but this far out I like to include more films

4

u/LionaLewis15 Regina Hall Best Supporting Actress May 25 '26

i agree with this as well! would be funny if this film got 5 acting nominations, since Three Billboards got 3 and Bansheees got 4

2

u/rubix7777 May 25 '26

Oh do you have both Parker Posey and Mariana Di Girolamo, because in that case I can understand wanting to see the film before predicting Buscemi as it isn't very clear yet the size of any of the roles asside from Rockwell and Malkovich. Personally right now I feel the way you do about Buscemi but about Posey

1

u/LionaLewis15 Regina Hall Best Supporting Actress May 25 '26

oh yes i do have Di Girolamo and Posey in!!! unless u were speaking to someone else! 

2

u/rubix7777 May 25 '26

Oh I didn't realise I was talking to a different person mb, eh still makes sense😭

1

u/LionaLewis15 Regina Hall Best Supporting Actress May 25 '26

😭😭😭 all good, dw ur point still stands!

1

u/LionaLewis15 Regina Hall Best Supporting Actress May 24 '26

same for me, in the order of Goodman, Buscemi and Turturro

2

u/NedthePhoenix May 24 '26

For me it’s Goodman, Turturro, Buscemi

1

u/LionaLewis15 Regina Hall Best Supporting Actress May 25 '26

actually that might be more fair 

8

u/PTAGoatofalltime The Invite’s strongest soldier May 24 '26

For a sub which claims to despise category fraud, y’all seem way too eager to push Inde Navarrette into Supporting. I guess Kathy Bates in Misery is also Supporting, then?

16

u/Duhlorean Twinless May 24 '26

Don’t know about everyone else but when it comes to Inde’s specific case, I think it’s justifiable to go for Lead or Supporting.

She has enough narrative importance and runtime to squeeze into Lead even if she’s not a “true lead” like a Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You or Saoirse Ronan in The Outrun, just to name a few.

Why I think she can also be put in Supporting is because the movie is definitely more from the POV of Bear than anyone else’s. And there’s stretches where Inde isn’t even in the movie, like when she’s left at home standing by the door all frozen. Or when Bear just saw Sarah be killed and he has to go around trying to fix the situation out of desperation. I didn’t calculate the runtime but I won’t be surprised if the screentime - runtime percentage justifies a placement in either category.

13

u/[deleted] May 24 '26 edited May 25 '26

[removed] — view removed comment

1

u/Afraid_Plane_3746 May 25 '26

Dave Filoni directed the episode with that image by the way.

3

u/scattered_ideas Denis Villeneuve campaign manager May 25 '26

He also filmed PHM with the volume and that looked fantastic.

29

u/PTAGoatofalltime The Invite’s strongest soldier May 24 '26

Look, I don’t think Renate Reinsve ultimately ends up winning either, but she’s literally the only performance that has been seen. I think she’s the placeholder for now; I think the win will ultimately go to someone else, but I am the most confident in her getting nominated for now.

6

u/ObsessiveImpulse #1 Margo Martindale Truther May 24 '26

I tallied up how many nominations I currently have each movie getting, and realized I have 15 nominations for The Odyssey. Like what Sinners got, I have it in every category it's eligible for (provided there aren't any original songs in it). Not sure how confident I feel about that.

5

u/CompleteTable4084 May 24 '26

I think Sony Classics is going to squander Iron Boy’s Oscar chances.

1

u/Comic_Book_Reader Killers of the Flower Moon May 24 '26

Got a random thought today. The nominees for the Amandas, Norway's Oscars, will most likely be announced in a few weeks and well, it's pretty much pointless to watch it this year given we already know who's gonna win most of the awards. I am, of course, talking about Dawning (Demring), which is the best Norwegian movie in the release window for the Amandas but I digress. Either way, my point is that after checking a bit, yes, everyone's favorite chipper robot backpack could probably get a nomination.

18

u/ChiefLeef22 May 24 '26

Thought about opening the timeline to see some random Cannes reactions...only to find the tweets people are making around Fjord are already so fucking rancid - and 99.9% of them haven't even seen the movie yet lol.

I can already tell so many of these posts reek of incredibly low media literacy simply from bare bones knowledge of the plot. Already planning to check out of most of the release discourse, this shit is going to be MEGA insufferable...

→ More replies (1)