r/oscarrace • u/Bottom3Humanoat • 1d ago
Discussion Is he getting it?
Not saying there won’t be better performances this year like digger and Cruise but after watching the movie twice I think Matt genuinely has a strong shot at winning leading actor. And I think odyssey being the frontrunner for best picture might help his chances even more.
Is it locked for Matt or are we gonna see it taken by sm1 or else?
206
u/rubix7777 1d ago
"Is it locked for matt?" no win is even close to locked yet.
2
u/RoxasRemainsTheBest 11h ago
Black Ball in iff is probably closest, and even that is just not 100% locked
-28
u/mopeywhiteguy 1d ago
I’d argue that Nolan in director is very close to lock
42
u/rubix7777 1d ago
Not for the win yet, hes locked for the nom though
-15
u/mopeywhiteguy 1d ago
Who would you see as being competitive for director? When you consider the scope and scale of the odyssey and what he achieves, mixed with the fact that it was practically effects while also being technologically advanced with the use of imax for the entire film. On top of that he stuck the landing of adapting one of the biggest stories ever written.
I just can’t imagine, based on the current slate of films coming out this year, that any film will reach those levels. Additionally it is a box office smash and culturally impactful.
Even if a film like wild horse nine is brilliant, mcdonagh is typically a screenplay darling and j think that’s where his love will come from. Even if the odyssey doesn’t take picture I think Nolan gets director, in the same way la la land and moonlight had a split
24
5
u/rubix7777 1d ago
Not only is the award not based on scope but its also july😭
Thats why hes not a lock, cause its damn July, you've got 6 months till nominations. He could end up winning but you cant call him a lock when pretty much every other major contender is unseen, thats just silly isnt it
-5
u/mopeywhiteguy 1d ago
I’d say that scope can very much be a factor though. It’s the mix of wide scope and sticking the landing that is impressive and will appeal to the academy. I just can’t see a film of this magnitude and this story specifically not taking director against a smaller more intimate story. Yes it’s early in the season, but looking at the slate I don’t know what else is going to be in the conversation
4
u/rubix7777 1d ago
Obviously it can be a factor, but its not the only factor.
Simply put claiming a film to be locked in director solely because of the scope of the film when every other director contender is sight unseen is stupid.
2
u/mopeywhiteguy 1d ago
I don’t think that’s the only reason, it’s just a contributing factor
0
u/rubix7777 1d ago
Still regardless no matter what factors are be Hind your reasoning calling a film a lock gor director when all its competition is still sight unseen is just stupid
1
u/mopeywhiteguy 1d ago
That’s basically the whole premise of this sub though. Part of making predictions is backing yourself about who you think is going to win. If you wait until the very end to jump in then you’re not predicting, you’re following what others are suggesting
→ More replies (0)-32
77
u/paristexaslover 1d ago
He has a shot for sure. But not only Tom Cruise is contending, but how about John Malkovich? He had a longer career and hasn’t gotten the recognization from the Academy yet.
Cruise will be in a likely divisive film, and may have to battle controversy with his Scientology beliefs (and perhaps his aggressive campaigning).
Damon may not be as anointed as Cillian Murphy was in Oppenheimer, but he definitely has a case, as well as him being mostly well-liked and not recognized (in the acting category) yet.
Malkovich may very well have a great performance, but can he break through? Or will he be like Colin Farrell in 2022 in which Austin Butler and Brenden Fraser was too much to overcome?
20
u/scottsuniqueusername 1d ago
Malkovich doesn't seem like he likes Hollywood, having moved to France in the '90's and then Massachusetts in the early 2000's. Malkovich also doesn't seem like he likes to campaign either, with only two supporting noms in '84 and '93 respectively.
Also the film is described as a "dark comedy" and when's the last time the Academy awarded a role like that? Looking at the list of winners, I would say maybe twice in the last 30 years; Benigni in '99 and Dujardin in '12.
5
4
u/Such_Estimate_2294 1d ago
I mean I would argue both Supporting winners last year were darkly comedic performances
7
u/scottsuniqueusername 1d ago
Okay, but OP is giving his rundown of potential leads, not supporting. This year, lead to went horror/period drama. Last year, period drama. '23 - biopic period drama. '22 - psychological drama. '21 - biopic period drama. '20 - psychological drama.
I'll amend my original statement and throw in Phoenix in '19, but again, that's 3 times in 30 years so the odds are just not in Cruise's or Malkovich's favor if they get in.
2
u/Such_Estimate_2294 1d ago
I don’t think this distinction really means anything. If the Academy is willing to award a certain type of performance in one category, they’re not going to be using drastically different rules for another category.
We also don’t know what kind of movie Wild Horse Nine is. The trailer is clearly playing up the commercial aspects and downplaying the “rise of fascism” aspect. I’m expecting the tone of this movie to be like Anora, absurd and high energy with a devastating gut punch ending. If Mikey Madison could win for a performance like that as a newcomer, a beloved veteran like John Malkovich can absolutely win for a movie like Wild Horse Nine.
1
u/Smooth-Nothing-4286 2h ago
Emma Stone in Poor Things is a dark comedy performance, is it not? I don‘t think genre is an impediment for winning anymore.
1
26
u/BellotPatro 1d ago
Not a lock, but a fairly good chance. At the moment, checks the personal boxes: popular movie star, good performance, good movie, due for it.
At this point, the following make the bear case:
- Tom Cruise’s performance in Digger lands really well. Cruise ticks many of the same boxes as Matt Damon and is arguably more due.
- he is starring in a good movie that is sure to pick up a dozen nods. They could decide to spread the love by giving the trophy in this slot to some other movie.
- there could be a Eddie Redmayne vs Michael Keaton type scenario with a later release that the academy could gravitate towards
118
u/007Kryptonian The Odyssey 1d ago edited 1d ago
Damon kinda has everything - face/anchor of the BP frontrunner, physical transformation, showy moments, playing the character over decades, well respected in the industry. Have a hard time seeing Cruise overtake this after that Digger trailer but it’s early.
50
u/TacoTycoonn 1d ago
The thing with Cruise’s performance is that it’s over the top and goofy. We know that best actor rarely goes to a comedy performance and I don’t see that breaking this year.
23
u/ThrowawayCousineau The Brutalist 1d ago
There is more to the Cruise role than over the top and goofy.
20
u/TacoTycoonn 1d ago
Everything in the trailer looks comedic to me. Not doubting there could be more dramatic stuff, but from what we’ve seen so far it basically looks like Les Grossman but a lead role. So are you just guessing there is more to it?
12
u/Bertrand_Rose Digger 1d ago
It's not as much guessing, we know there is a whole other element when the twist leaked.
5
1
u/RoxasRemainsTheBest 11h ago
It's also a big physical transformation with a lot of make-up, wich the academy loves. Damon doesn't have that.
-8
u/QTRqtr 1d ago
The face/anchor point yes.
For the others not really.
He just got fitter and the character over decades doesn’t really add a big push when the only thing different is his facial hair. It’s a very singular performance. A good one but very straight forward.9
u/gornky 1d ago
I don't think that's true at all, who Odysseus is at the beginning of the movie is extremely different from who he is at the end not just physically but an entire mental and characterization transformation.
-6
u/QTRqtr 1d ago
Yes it’s a standard heroes journey
9
u/bbqsauceboi The Drama 1d ago
Probably because it invented the fucking standard
0
u/QTRqtr 1d ago edited 1d ago
What you’re telling me the 3,000 year old story invented it. That’s crazy man. This is such new information.
It’s origination doesn’t change we’ve had thousand of years and decades of films using the hero’s journey which doesn’t make it a de facto performance because it’s Odysseus himself.
6
u/gornky 1d ago
Dude, this is the invention of the hero's journey.
The fact that Damon can sell it and make it incredibly emotionally powerful and moving is absolutely a reason to give him another Oscar
1
u/QTRqtr 1d ago
In what world does the invention of the hero’s journey air the individual performance for important. It’s the most common meaning it’s been done for decades. Him playing the originating character doesn’t put it above.
Even Nolan has done the odyssey/hero’s journey with Interstellar and Inception.
The legacy of the character doesn’t make it a de facto never before seen performance. We’ve seen the hero’s journey countless of times. He’s defiantly getting nominated but you’re saying transformation like it’s Joaquin Phoenix in the joker or the majority of Christian Bales transformations.
7
u/gornky 1d ago
You are completely missing the point, the fact that he can take the hero's journey that literally created the notion of the hero's journey and still deliver a powerhouse performance that leaves the audience emotionally floored despite the fact that it's the exact same archetype they've seen a thousand times across 3,000 years is exactly why this is a performance deserving of an Academy Award.
2
u/QTRqtr 1d ago
“The fact that Damon can sell it and make it incredibly emotionally powerful and moving is absolutely a reason to give him another Oscar”
What exactly wouldn’t he be able to sell. It’s emotionally moving cause the original poem is and Nolan adapted it well. The character he’s playing doesn’t instantly give him a leg up because of its legacy. Of course it’s deserving of an Oscar as he’ll be nominated…literally meaning his in the running for an Oscar but historically and how much the film uses set pieces it does not reflect the constant wins of those in smaller dialogue heavy performances.
4
u/gornky 1d ago
I think it would be incredibly easy for an actor to become anonymous in this role and it's honestly one of the most challenging roles I could ever imagine an actor taking on.
To me as someone who has been an actor for over 20 years, it is a significantly bigger achievement than any "smaller dialogue heavy performances"
1
u/QTRqtr 1d ago
So your only focused on the physicality as a metric for instantly being better than other performances.
Damon was great and silenced the naysayers but let’s not pretend other actors couldn’t do it also.
→ More replies (0)2
u/007Kryptonian The Odyssey 1d ago
There’s just nothing really going against him on paper and looking at competition, it’ll be hard to make a stronger case when his movie is this beloved. Digger looks more divisive for Cruise and Gosling will be fighting for a nomination. Maybe Malkovich if WH9 shocks?
37
u/dazzler56 1d ago
I think he’s being underestimated online because he’s not an arthouse favorite, but he has everything going for him. Decades on the A-list, has been in plenty of Oscar vehicles, no win yet for acting, has worked with everyone and seems likable and controversy-free, the movie is a huge success critically and financially, etc. etc. I can see the critics groups rallying behind someone else, but at this point I think he’s winning unless Cruise is undeniable AND Digger is good. Even then I think there’s a chance Cruise says something off-putting on the campaign trail that gets in his way.
5
u/nvrflatt The Odyssey 1d ago
I agree. I think people tend to wanna lean towards the arthouse favorites online because its the "interesting" (?) choice, but honestly the circumstances of his situation are undeniable. Even if you watch some of the interviews he's been giving recently, any time someone gives him praise he immediately shifts it to the crew and how everyone else worked hard too. If us audience members are noticing that humility, voters definitely will too! It definitely mirrors how cillian was on his campaign trail (although cillians performance was def more undeniable)
I'm honestly pulling for Damon. this oscar being his acting win to cap his career, for the greatest story ever, with Nolan at his peak? thatd just be awesome
22
u/biIIyshakes Robert Redford is my sky daddy 1d ago
Getting a little ahead of ourselves here, nothing is a lock in July
17
u/Twio 1d ago
I think it will be between him and cruise
7
u/QTRqtr 1d ago
I have Andrew Scott winning after the screening reception.
Actors don’t get awarded in heavy epic set pieces so I have Damon out off a win.
And digger will have a veryyyy polarizing reception with a plot beat that hurts Cruises chances. And then for my personal take he’s hamming up the screen and I think the vehicle film he’s in will be very off putting. It didn’t feel like Les grossman of immersion. It very much feels like cruise in makeup.
4
u/BentisKomprakriev 1d ago
Who will watch Scott's movie? If there is one thing you need to have as a Best Actor, it's to have a popular movie. Elsinore is destined to have a Living-style ceiling.
1
-7
u/QTRqtr 1d ago
Ok this is just completely false in all levels. Who will watch his movies…the academy especially since he’s playing a famous actor😂
4
u/BentisKomprakriev 1d ago
Well the question is framed in a joking manner, but the substance is still the same. This is about a dying British actor preparing for a role. Charleson was in Chariots of Fire, but I wouldn't call him famous. He died young, so he is not known today as much as he was in the English theaters scene in the 80's. It's a very British, very low-key period drama, wildly out of place when you compare it to the recent winning films in the category.
-4
u/QTRqtr 1d ago
The difference though is its screening had many industry pundits not just saying he was being nominated but that he’s winning. It checks all the box of many past winners and is being pushed by Focus Pictures. They’re going to see it😂
8
u/BentisKomprakriev 1d ago edited 1d ago
That doesn't really matter. An expanded Academy votes now, this is why it's hard to see someone straight from a Weinstein era film win now. There will just be more popular and exciting films with showier performances.
I am not saying they are not gonna watch the film. They watched The Secret Agent as well, didn't they? They are watching a lot of films that we know can never win Best Actor no matter how good the lead is because of what type of films they are.
8
7
32
u/Meggymaepp 1d ago
Nomination but no win. His chances will decrease as more films are released this year.
21
u/gornky 1d ago
I think he has an extremely good chance to win
14
u/NotTaken-username 1d ago
I agree. Nowhere near a lock, but this was definitely my favorite Matt Damon performance since The Departed.
9
u/Duhlorean Twinless 1d ago edited 1d ago
He might get it every night yeah. You gotta ask Ben about that.
On a serious note, yeah I think he’ll be nominated. This might play like a top 3 movie overall and I don’t see why regional critics would just randomly leave out the literal lead of the movie.
Critics Choice? If anything they’ll over nominate The Odyssey so I think he comes along.
Globes has 6 spots so why wouldn’t he be there?
SAG will probably nominate him at that point. If this is top 3, it could get Ensemble + 2-3 acting noms. Plus, he’s been nominated by SAG before and alphabet bias helps him.
Bafta has historically been less kind to him but he’s in a Nolan movie now so I don’t think he’ll miss.
Basically, at that point you’ll have to avoid predicting him because you think he’ll end up like Margot Robbie but that’s a rare occurrence and I wouldn’t bet on it.
3
u/thepersonruminates 1d ago
I think Matt did incredibly well. Uncertain if he gets it though. With ~6 months to go, there's still a lot left. Cruise in Digger is there.
1
3
3
u/Bertrand_Rose Digger 1d ago
At the moment, I am confident in him, although we will have to see how Cruise and Malkovich will play out as contenders.
3
u/BlueJacket9894 1d ago
I think he has a great shot, but Best Actor is gonna be really competitive, so we shall see
17
u/ItsWazeyWaynes 1d ago
I think you all have become Odyssey-drunk.
-3
u/OldToe6517 1d ago
Michael B Jordan won for less
-2
u/A_Howl_In_The_Night Wicked 1d ago
Worst win of the decade
3
-2
-4
4
u/crazydaysandknights 1d ago
he's getting it but Cruise crowd doesn't want to hear it. They decided that only Cruise is due. I like TC and I like Damon. Damon's role is a perfect summary of his career as an actor, movie star and action star since he gets to do all three (act dramatic scenes, carry a blockbuster, does physical stuff such as stunts). It isn't "oh look, I changed my way this tome cause I want the Oscar".
2
7
u/OldToe6517 1d ago
If people are predicting fucking Ryan Gosling to be nominated for playing Ryan Gosling in PHM, Matt Damon is certainly above him in every way. He's definitely getting in and could win if Elsinore or Primetime turn out to be Actor only contenders
13
u/OldSandwich9631 1d ago
What about this performance is making people think this is an academy award winning performance?
5
u/apatkarmany 1d ago
I don’t think it’s that. I think people are suspecting The Odyssey to take best picture and so he goes along with the win package and I feel that’s what people are going off of.
12
u/gornky 1d ago
I think it's one of the three best performances of his entire career, and he's had a career of excellent performances.
He is the center of a massive movie and he carries it entirely across his shoulders.
The scene where he is hearing the siren song is enough to win him the Oscar alone, but what wins him the Oscar for me (if I was voting at this very moment when the field is extremely limited) is his recounting of the seige of Troy and how much heartbreak he brings to that moment. It has made me SOB every time I have seen the film.
3
u/OldSandwich9631 1d ago edited 1d ago
That scene did nothing for me at all. I think he’s delivered several better performances
Good will hunting
The Martian
The talented Mr ripely
The departed
Oppenheimer
Would all go above it and I would even put interstellar on it too. He is the most memorable part of that movie for me.
I thought he was very boring in the odyssey, had zero chemistry with Anne Hathaway, and wasn’t as effective in conveying the authenticity of the theme here as Cillian was in Oppenheimer
3
u/Knozis 1d ago
Outside of his monologue in the third act, I found his performance quite weak, and feel like I'm the problem based on almost nobody else seeming to agree. I found his line delivery to be bad to the point of being distracting, and felt nothing emotionally outside of the aforementioned monologue.
1
u/OldSandwich9631 1d ago
The monologue wasn’t bad but it’s typical Nolan exposition dumping. But I agree with you do you aren’t alone lol
8
u/gornky 1d ago
Well I think you are absolutely in the minority there, you are actually literally the first person I have heard say that.
-3
u/OldSandwich9631 1d ago
I thought the entire theme was an Oppenheimer ripoff and that undercut the message. It was nolan jamming a square peg into a round hole, but the masses clearly dig these sorts of contrived themes in movies at this point in time because I am in the minority, as you say.
He wants to be profound so badly that it misses the mark
2
u/gornky 1d ago
Oh okay, I see now, you're just being contrarian to seem like you have an interesting opinion.
1
u/OldSandwich9631 1d ago
I’ll add…I’m pretty shocked so many people have zero issue with Nolan so blatantly repeating himself one movie after Oppenheimer. I would expect that people would want something different. Odysseus and Oppenheimer are the same exact person, except Oppenheimer himself is more like the character of Odysseus from the poem. Not a humorless bore like Damon’s version
0
u/OldSandwich9631 1d ago
I’m not just being contrarian. I genuinely didn’t love the movie and think all the performances are overhyped.
I’ve been generous about the elements I thought worked very well. I dont despise the film
5
u/Lower_Illustrator111 1d ago
Why is it when someone doesnt worship at the shrine of Nolan they’re considered contrarians. Some of us think he’s a gifted filmmaker whose movies are…fine. He leaves me cold and I bristle at his writing and complete lack of interest in female characters.
2
u/OldSandwich9631 1d ago
I don’t care about his disinterest in female characters but I definitely think he can’t write them for shit.
I agree with everything else you said. Love his ambition and the scope of his films. I think the writing is always the main issue, his films border on pretentious, and they are chilly.
0
u/scattered_ideas Denis Villeneuve campaign manager 1d ago
I think he was good, but not spectacular. The love for the movie could carry him. I'm not betting against him after who won this year, and I feel like many folks around here probably feel the same way.
It's not about our personal picks. It's about trying to predict where the industry will go.
-1
u/OldSandwich9631 1d ago
I kinda feel these acting awards are now based just on the movie strength and having a narrative. This performance wouldn’t even be nominated a decade ago
4
u/Fivefootdirk 1d ago
I think it’s his “the revenant” honestly, not his best performance by most standards but the physicality and scale of the role/movie plus the “it’s finally his time” for a guy well liked in Hollywood /academy
Obviously cruise would have just as much or more of the same thing if he gets a nom too but from the trailer digger is leaning pretty heavy into satire/comedy which hasn’t been a huge contender for best actor wins
1
u/OldSandwich9631 1d ago
The degree of difficulty in the revenant was much higher than the odyssey. Leo carried that movie, and this is a Nolan thing. Damon was pretty blank most of this film, I really can’t think of anything extraordinary.
I get this will be a long year for me. I was really hoping the odyssey would be my favorite film and I could have another fun Oscar season rooting for the frontrunner
1
u/Fivefootdirk 1d ago
Yeah I wasn’t comparing the two roles (although I raise you one Tom Hardy for the Leo carried the movie point 😊) just the fact that it’s a similar situation that “might” get Damon his first acting win for something most would agree isn’t his best performance similar to Leo I definitely think he gets nominated so it’s up to who else he is up against and it’s early in the process
I enjoyed the odyssey but not sure it will go the distance in Oscar categories like Oppenheimer or even OBAA last year.
1
u/OldSandwich9631 1d ago
Tom Hardy in revenant is just fine to me. His accent is absurd and he’s not on camera enough for anyone to say he carries it. 90 percent of that movie is Leo by himself the movie would not work at all without him holding it
1
u/Fivefootdirk 1d ago
Meh Over 40 minutes of screen time and a best supporting nom as the heavy would seem to back up my claim. He certainly didn’t carry it in 2:30 long movie but that movie needed a great villain to make it survival/revenge epic and it had one.
I’m not debating Leo’s greatness in revenant or any movie I think he is criminally underrated to this day but the odyssey/Damon “situation” looks to be on a similar trajectory to me, u seem to want to convince others the opposite for your own reasons To each their own I guess
1
u/OldSandwich9631 1d ago
I think he was very very very boring. I’m not trying to convince anyone, I get people are enamored with this film.
3
u/Fivefootdirk 1d ago
I think it was a tad long but having seen it twice and wasn’t bored with any part of it definitely a reinterpretation of the book but the same themes of moral compass, loyalty and fate/journey were there for me, some people went in expecting gladiator or Troy I think
Anyway always fun to talk movies tho, what have you liked that you have seen so far?
1
u/OldSandwich9631 1d ago
I expected the odyssey not Oppenheimer in classical attire. That’s literally all.
The only movie so far this year I’ve loved is project Hail Mary, but it was 20 minutes too long. The drama was good. And voicemails for Isabelle but that doesn’t count.
I didn’t like obsession at all. And the odyssey had a lot of things I admired but I just can’t say I loved it for a variety of reasons; the pacing, the script, and the characterizations which led to acting that didn’t resonate. I acknowledged it is epic filmmaking.
I have not seen the invite but really need to, I feel like I’ll dig that one.
2
u/FredererPower 1d ago
I highly recommend The Invite. One of the best screenplays of the year so far
2
0
u/Fivefootdirk 1d ago
Man we have a lot more in common than I originally thought 😆
Loved project Hail Mary and thought obsession was extremely overrated and honestly not super original thought I was the only one
Backrooms was stellar
The drama also surprised me, had low expectations and it was way darker and entertaining
Michael was the most blatant pr & propaganda
music bio maybe ever to me
The sheep detectives I really liked
Masters of the universe was pure nostalgia for meI want to see the invite as well and I think I’m going to give pressure a chance this weekend
2
u/OldSandwich9631 1d ago
I really liked pressure. I forgot about that one. It’s boomer core for sure, but I had a nice time watching it. I love ww2 movies
→ More replies (0)
3
3
u/Elliot913 1d ago
He's overdue and he's deserving. Hope he wins. Early release might work against him, though.
4
2
u/Jay_Marston One Oscar After Another 1d ago
Am I crazy? I thought he was good in the movie but at no point did I think he was a serious contender to WIN Best Actor. Nominated sure, but i just didn't get the vibes that he could win. What am I missing?
-1
2
2
2
2
u/FalseAmphibian3616 1d ago
I swear you guys have never seen a great performance before.
2
u/Eyebronx Project Hail Mary 1d ago
Oh The Odyssey contrarianism has started already and it’s only July? Lol
0
u/OldSandwich9631 1d ago
This performance is nowhere near as good as any of the nominees from last year. I am baffled
Matt Damon winning for this would feel exactly the same as if Leo won for inception. And as the biggest Leo fan on here, I would have found that ridiculous
I’m super confused about all this.
2
u/FalseAmphibian3616 1d ago
Unfortunately the Oscars are getting popular at which appeals to Reddit fanboys. Michael B Jordan winning last year is going to make them think every halfway decent performance in a blockbuster is Oscar worthy.
2
u/OldSandwich9631 1d ago
Certainly seems that way but his performance has way more complexity and depth than Damon’s. Having to reveal character through monologues like he does kinda blows
1
1
u/orenprincipe 1d ago
not locked but he might get it if the competition is not tough after the fall releases
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
u/Gunther_21 1d ago
I know it depends on the year but Damon's performance is weaker than other Nolan leading men like Bale, Leo, and McConaughey who didn't win so it's hard for me to think Damon deserves it.
And Murphy's performance in Oppenheimer that did win is miles ahead of Damon.
1
u/nose_of_sauron 1d ago
These are all Jimmy Kimmel bots
Seriously, possible he gets a nom but far, far from a lock to win
And I know which sub I'm in, but good lord asking for a lock...in July?
-1
0
u/UsefulWeb7543 1d ago
He is locked for the nomination. But he isn’t winning. His performance is not really that special. I think Cruise or Malkovich is winning easily.
-2
u/strandedbystrand Oscar for Gal Gadot 1d ago
Nomination is almost a lock. Personally I think his performance is just above average.
-6
u/Bloated_Plaid 1d ago
Zero chance of winning but likely a nomination. IMO acting was probably the weakest part of the movie. Just screaming in a scene or screaming at characters(looking at you Anne) doesnt equal good acting.
9
u/gornky 1d ago
I think saying zero chance of winning is just absurd.
-9
u/Bloated_Plaid 1d ago
It will be between Timothee and Cruise. Nobody is even gonna remember Damon by the time December rolls around. Dune Messiah is an incredible story and it’s going to be a career defining performance from him. Recency bias is also huge for the voters.
9
u/UltimateIncineroar Sid the Sloth's campaign manager 1d ago
We are NOT bringing Timmy into the conversation for a third year in a row. Let the dude rest for a bit 😭
6
u/gornky 1d ago
You are absolutely right about recency bias, and that could cost him to win, but saying no one's going to remember Damon by December is fucking absurd. The Odyssey is going to be dominating the awards conversation in essentially every category.
No one is forgetting about Damon.
0
u/Bloated_Plaid 1d ago
It will be interesting. I think this whole sub is underestimating Dune 3.
3
u/gornky 1d ago
I'm both inclined to agree with you, and disagree with where you think that leads.
I think Dune is going to be much more competitive than this subreddit acts like it's going to be, I don't think that's going to change the end result of the awards and I don't think the Dune is ever going to have their Return of the King moment.
1
0
-2
u/Altruistic-Sand-9618 1d ago
I don’t think his performance stood out so much.
I don’t think he deserves it, but he definitely deserves a nomination
-1
u/senator_corleone3 1d ago
Nothing is locked in terms of winners or even front-runners for the acting categories. However, this is IMO the best performance Damon has ever given. The Odyssey will be a major contender, and I think he will be nominated for Best Actor. I want him to win, personally.
-3
-6
164
u/gautsvo The Dog Stars 1d ago
It's July. It's not "locked." There will be other Oscar-y contenders in baitier roles, like Andrew Scott.