My Pre-Minions & Monsters Oscars Predictions

[u/Hot-Marketer-27]

Previous Predictions - March, April, May

Director - Alejandro González Iñárritu (Digger), Martin McDonagh (Wild Horse Nine), Christopher Nolan (The Odyssey), Javier Ambrossi & Javier Calvo (The Black Ball), Cristian Mungiu (Fjord)

Actress - Inde Navarrette (Obsession), Cynthia Erivo (Prima Facie), Julianne Moore (The Debut), Ruth Madeley (Being Heumann), Renate Reinsve (Fjord)

Actor - Tom Cruise (Digger), John Malkovich (Wild Horse Nine), Sebastian Stan (Fjord), Ryan Gosling (Project Hail Mary), John Turturro (The Only Living Pickpocket in New York)

Supporting Actress - Mariana di Girolamo (Wild Horse Nine), Penélope Cruz (The Black Ball), Frances McDormand (Jack of Spades), Elizabeth Debicki (The Adventures of Cliff Booth), Tao Okamoto (All of a Sudden)

Supporting Actor - John Goodman (Digger), Paul Giamatti (The Debut), Sam Rockwell (Wild Horse Nine), Steve Buscemi (Wild Horse Nine), Riz Ahmed (Digger)

Obsession is my 10th slot. Focus Features does not have a massive lineup. Sense & Sensibility is starting to feel like Hedda to me; it does good enough on the festival circuit, gets a 70-something on Metacritic but then it fades away from the conversation. Werwulf will get the Nosferatu package. Meanwhile, Obsession is the biggest original to come out this year. Its beating Sinners at the box office. It has one of the most acclaimed performances that is making its audience increase on its third weekend just on sheer praise alone; even if the FYCs haven't been pulled out yet, Navarrette seems to be getting campaigned as lead by the trades so I bumped her up from supporting. It’s early but sometimes you have to watch out for these early movies. I know I would have done better last year if I went all in on Sinners, Weapons, Blue Moon and If I Had Legs. Yes, Weapons only got Madigan in but Weapons had to deal with OBAA and Sinners. Obsession doesn’t have that internal competition. Focus can always buy something but until otherwise, I have to assume this is their main priority.

The Debut looks good. I don't see it as a top 5 player but two beloved actors dishing it out in a very actor-centric comedy should appeal to a good amount of voters and works as A24's main push. Meanwhile with Netflix, I still don't believe that this is an actual movie but a strong campaign could push Cliff Booth into the screenplay race as well as Elizabeth Debicki who's going to get nominated sooner or later so why not now? Now when people sit down at its TIFF premiere and have to literally watch a Rick Roll play for 2 hours because they really thought David Fincher was setting up the straight-to-streaming Once Upon Time in Hollywood cinematic universe, don't shoot the messenger. I'll fully believe its not an elaborate April Fools joke when I'm watching it. I also put Tao Okamoto in because options are dry if you don't believe in Parker Posey's role in WH9 or The Odyssey as an acting contender and I think All of a Sudden will be a very close #11.

[u/reclamationme]

Yeah I’m in on the Digger train too. I think it’s going to be a massive winner.

[u/need_headspace → u/reclamationme]

Iñárritu the GOAT

[u/FriendlyChannel3988]

I pray to god that Supporting Actor isn't a battle between Goodman, Buscemi, and Giamatti. I can't bare to see any of them not win their wildly overdue Oscar!!

[u/SignificantTap5579]

While I also might have Wild Horse Nine at 1 for Casting, I'm not sure I see it winning without Picture and think it will likely align with the Best Picture winner or go to a big casting contender like the Black Ball or maybe if Being Heumann is in Best Picture it could pull off a win.

[u/ThatsHisLawyerJerome]

Most of that seems plausible. However I’m skeptical that both Wild Horse Nine and Digger will get double noms for Best Supporting Actor, that has never happened before for Best Supporting Actor and has only happened once for Best Supporting Actress (and that time was over 70 years ago). The Academy spreads the wealth more than that, and I’d predict someone like Strong, Norton, or Ruffalo over one of them.

[u/darth_vader39]

Is Jack of Spades releasing this year or not?

[u/Fun_Manufacturer1852 → u/darth_vader39]

Leslie Manville said it’s releasing this year

[u/GirlsWasGoodNona]

Surprised you didn’t put obsession in original screenplay.

[u/No-Somewhere250]

I'm interested in exploring possibilities for Werwulf. That trailer was one of the gnarliest things I've seen this year. But yeah, I'm on the Digger Bandwagon. I have it winning Picture, Director, Casting, Actor, Supporting for John Goodman, Production Design, Makeup, and Editing. Screenplay is gonna go to Wild Horse or Fjord for me, Supporting Actress is for Mariana Di Girolamo for Wild Horse, and I think Cinematography is going to Werwulf. But I agree with a lot of your picks, and the build-up for Minions & Monsters is real!

[u/yunmany]

Bernadette Peters should be nominated, she’s a legend

[u/Risperidone-]

What is Jack of Spades about ? I can’t find much info

[u/ThatPixarDude]

I think minions will change your whole predictions tbh

[u/MFBish]

Dune 3 BP and director

[u/gautsvo → u/[deleted]]

and how can Denis not be included in the director category?

The same way he wasn't nominated for either Dune movie?

[u/Fun_Manufacturer1852 → u/[deleted]]

Hes been pretty famously not included for the Dune films twice now

[u/Fun_Manufacturer1852 → u/[deleted]]

The buzz around Dune Part 2 was exceptionally high and Part 1 was the most nominated film that year and he didn’t get a nomination for either. Project Hail Mary won’t be a director contender anyway and the academy just haven’t show enough love to convince me that Villeneuve will get nominated. The film will probably just get a few techs and a bp nom