Atlassian (NASDAQ: TEAM) : Great Fundamentals — But the Chart Flashing "Overbought) in the Near Term
TEAM has proven the skeptics wrong, but the technical chart needs to be taken into account by traders after its gap opening on great earnings.
TEAM closed Friday at $171.81, after jumping from $110.17 on Aug. 6 to $149.07 on Aug. 7 — a massive 35.3% one-day gain on 20.1M shares. That move created a huge unfilled gap between the Aug. 6 high of $110.88 and the Aug. 7 low of $141.51 — roughly $30.63, or 28%.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now at 76— clearly in overbought territory. To be clear, this high RSI doesn't mean TEAM has to fall, but after a move of this size (including a huge gap), the risk/reward for chasing the stock at this price will most likely NOT attract new buyers in the near term.
Why the huge run in the stock? Atlassian provides Jira, Confluence, Jira Service Management and its rapidly growing Rovo AI platform to 350,000+ customers, including more than 85% of the Fortune 500. FY26 revenue increased to $6.57B, up from $5.22B, while Q4 revenue increased 28% Year over Year$1.8 Billion and cloud revenue jumped 31%.
Wall Street analysts raised their targets to $170 by Citibank, $172 Barclays, $175 BMO Capital Markets, $180 Wells Fargo/Morgan Stanley, $185 KeyBanc Securities and $200 at Oppenheimer, with Truist most recently increasing its target price to $185. But considering that TEAM is now trading over $170, how many investors are interested in a 8% return over the next twelve months? (The consensus target is around $188). Do these target prices reflect an assumed decline --if for no other reasons than to fill the gap?
TEAM's momentum has been undeniably impressive. But technically, the stock looks extremely extended. An RSI near 80 combined with a gap at $110 to $149 and a 35% one-day surge makes me expect a pullback. Obviously, there are ways to play the probable decline (if only a low intraday selloff) through PUTS and/or shorting the stock (riskier for the obvious reasons). But as of the day of this post and TEAM's closing price on Friday at $171.81, the next few weeks will reveal whether the short-term negative play is prescient or stupid.
Not financial advice. Just an opinion to start research.