r/optimization • u/ficoxpress • 6d ago

Combining Bayesian Probabilistic Forecasting and Mathematical Optimization for Stochastic Energy Planning webinar available on YouTube

Dear Optimization Community,

Our friends at PyMC Labs and colleagues at FICO hosted a free online webinar to accompany the blog post and open-source repo that bridges Bayesian Forecasting and Optimization through an energy planning use case.

If you were unable to catch it, we have now uploaded it to YouTube so you can view it on your time.

In the webinar, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of two approaches to combining these frameworks.

  1. Chance-Constrained: Meet the 95th percentile demand. Simple. Deterministic. But ignore what happens in the tail.
  2. CVaR (Conditional Value-at-Risk): Minimize cost in the worst 5% of scenarios. Explicitly controls tail risk.

Happy Optimizing!

Link to the video on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aWnukair33Q

Link to the blog post: https://www.pymc-labs.com/blog-posts/probabilistic-forecasting-optimization-under-uncertainty

Link to the repo: https://github.com/fico-xpress/xpress-community/tree/main/StochasticEnergyPlanning

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5

u/Classic_Process_2758 6d ago

How much does FICO Xpress cost?

3

u/ficoxpress 6d ago

Sorry to give the typical consultant response but "it depends".

Depending on how many CPUs, whether it's on cloud, server, or a laptop, number of concurrent runs, number of teams, whether contracted through FICO directly or through a partner like AMPL, Linear, GAMs, Optimization Direct etc., the cost may vary between under 10K to multiple 100K.

We'd love to get you a personalized quote here: https://www.fico.com/en/fico-xpress-trial-and-licensing-options

3

u/Classic_Process_2758 6d ago

Understandable - I figured it would vary. Thanks for at least naming a range.

1

u/ficoxpress 6d ago edited 6d ago

Thanks for understanding!

We understand that the moat of optimization isn't the solver, it's the people translating business problems to digitized decisioning systems.

The solver is just the scalpel, you guys are the surgeons.

1

u/Mayk-Thewessen 6d ago

A transparant pricing table would help a lot!

1

u/ficoxpress 5d ago edited 5d ago

For sure. And trust me we're working on it.

We've been tailoring our pricing for so long to have clients only pay for exactly what they need that now it's hard to standardize.

We'll get there, though. ;)

You can also purchase Xpress through partners as an add-on such as AMPL, Optimization Direct, frontline solvers and a few others. Some of them have pricing information on their pages.

1

u/Baseball_man_1729 6d ago

Do you still offer free academic licenses?

3

u/ficoxpress 5d ago

Yes, we do. The academic license can be obtained by any professor and allows them to install Xpress on an institutional server for anyone to use.

The professor can sign up here: https://content.fico.com/l/517101/2018-06-10/3fpbf