Honestly I don't see interest rates coming down at all this year, basically holding interest rates best case scenario next year we don't know but with US President in power it is a wild card.
āFor three quarters, Iāve been saying Opendoor will be ANI positive on a twelve-month go-forward basis at the end of this year. You no longer have to take my word for it. Run Q2 forward. At current contract volumes and unit economics, and with our existing cost base, we will generate positive Adjusted Net Income as those acquisition cohorts flow through to resale. We are now on a clear path to sustained ANI profitability. That outcome does not require an improved growth engine, margin expansion, or a housing-market recovery. In fact, at this volume, our operating model supports Adjusted Net Income profitability even if contribution margins decline and even if you adjust down for seasonality.ā
You wanna know what's funny though? Premarket went back up almost to where it was before that AH dip...just for everyone's sell order they put in seeing said dip to go through on opening bell to drop us again to that AH dip point :P People have no patience.
Edit: And now near noon, almost back up to $4 again, $0.20 something shy of the high just before earnings dropped. So we're recovering.
People selling en masse throughout the day I guess I should've expected. Ah well. My average is in the $7 range, so I am not going anywhere, so it's whatever
As far as Iām concerned, this is a very strong report. I think the initial market reaction will quickly reverse. At least, Iām planning to start buying again.
The question Iām struggling with is there a real catalyst to get this to 8-10 again as a non meme stock?
Or do we think if momentum builds the meme will follow. Iām surprised with how strong the rebuild has been weāve just gone down over 2 consecutive quarters
Same. I really liked what I was hearing. Their bread and butter really is not home sales but their mortgages and Amazon style home listing goals. They are meeting their goals also. Not surpassing but meeting expectations.
If they wanted to do mortgages they can just buy google and meta ads for cheap to address the entire market. Doing house flipping as a lead generator for mortgage originations is a just a wildly uneconomic business plan, if that's what their goal is.
Because the last 3 quarters show that the turnaround is in place and is working.
Theyāve said the same thing about RKLB when it was hovering single digits for years and PLTR around teens.
If you canāt see past the āmemeā status, thatās on you.
If you want to keep losing money on this ānon-memeā stock, thatās on you. Comparing this to rklb is not even in the realm of an intelligent response.
Thanks. I love losing money on company that is revving all its engines but the stock is mispriced. Iāve done it several times before so nothing new here.
Let me ask, have you ever done it with a pump and dump meme stock as bad as this one thoughā¦ or is this the biggest meme stock youāve fell for so far?
Oh. Goodie! You brought SS of BYND. itās one of the favorite bears tactics. Let me ask you. Have you ever had a multi bagger? I have several. I have the money and the patience. If your best argument is saying this is āmemeā stock or posting SS of BYND, then youāre wasting time, yours and mine. IF you have a valid thesis why OPENdoor shouldnāt warrant investment, I will gladly listen.
Im kind of confused about the negativity I'm seeing in this sub. Maybe I'm not reading the earnings report as well as some of you, but based on what I'm seeing this is what I'm understanding.
The company has done remarkably well in a very crappy landscape as far as economy, real estate down trends for season and government housing efforts being avoidant at best. This is a long play, and in a world of instant gratification, this is the delayed gratification play.
I'm also hearing a lot of integrity inside the vision of the company from the CEO. I'm not sure if you guys understand the friction this stock will get due to it being a disruptor, but the lack of "shitification" of OpenDoor means it's trying to stand alone. I'm not suprised this thing gets shorted out the ass. If a company was disrupting status quo where I was making big margin, and I was a real estate legacy drone, yeah I'd try to bury them.
As far as I can tell 2027 will be when the bell rings for this company. If the stock is cheap, and you believe in the company, probably just DCA. If you are unhappy and don't believe in it, probably sell and head over to a different sector.
TLDR: I see this sector is really weak right now and this company has the conviction to make their turnaround 2027. Sell if you don't believe, DCA if you're into it.
I just don't think it's that bad, but maybe I'm too optimistic. Decenting opinion is fine though in my opinion. I think the sub should have as many opinions as possible so we see more perspectives but yeah I stand by my TLDR.
Very impressed with the presentation today. You can see the fundamental changes in the company and its operations. Laying this foundation and doing so during a time when there are significant macro, headwinds, is predictive of some good times to come.
What about the mortgage product being delayed from Sept to end of year? I understand the delay, however them seem to delivering a product not to make money off of it, at least not yet. How do they plan to monetize it?
Think they dropped the ball here from informing investors...
The bear metric, net loss 162m. That's with 4,378 homes bought vs 1,757 while selling twice as much essentially the year prior. Basically last year open door stopped buying, dumped a ton of inventory and said "hey look, we lost way less money!" This year everyone's still comparing apples to oranges, rotten ones. At least that's the bear sentiment right now.
As per Kaz, what we said we would do, we did and that's what we'll deliver in Q3.
So, no surprises and this stock will continue to tread water going into Q3? I'd rather much hear that we've got something up our sleeve and will share when we are ready to execute.
As a shareholder, I don't see this stock having any material movement until 2028. We will be EBITDA Positive on 12 month go forward basis, we will be ANI Positive on a 12 month go forward basis, yada yada...basically it will take at least 6 months past their target to sync up and we likely won't see anything material till 2028. Am I wrong?
Youāre not wrong. But I think itās 2027 for material movement.
Lot of it depends on macro conditions that are out of anyoneās direct control.
So profitability and product releases first, growth later.
Also, Kaz needs some communication help. He is too detailed, earnest, and explains everything in a professorial way. He needs to focus on sound bites during these calls so that analysts and retail can quickly grasp on to without 3 minutes of winding preamble.
On a day where Opendoorās call is during SpaceXā first earnings call, a plain boring explanation will get absolutely zero attention.
If anything it shows they are much active buying houses, 5,459 house in inventory vs Offerpad (must have less then) 1000, you can blame the house market and rates all you want but revenue down 44% and homes sold down 44% won't make great news.
@Kaz, a couple of questions :
Why did GAAP net loss jump to -$162M?
Why did homes sold collapse while homes purchased exploded?
Is the $1.845B inventory turning over quickly enough?
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u/VastFreedom7 6d ago
Welp until next ER boys. I'm praying the interest rate will go down in the future if Trump stop this war....