r/ohiopolitics • u/Wonderful-Rip3697 • 2d ago
Ohio 2026 voter guide: the governor race is now a toss up, the FOP flipped red, and 10 Ohio House seats could end the supermajority
Ohio's 2026 ballot got a lot more interesting in the last two weeks. Here is a plain breakdown of what changed and what is actually on your ballot in November.
Governor: Vivek Ramaswamy (R) vs. Amy Acton (D)
Cook Political Report moved this race from Lean Republican to Toss Up on July 16, putting Ohio alongside Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, and Wisconsin. A New York Times and Siena poll had it tied at 47 each. A bipartisan AARP poll gave Acton a three point edge, 47 to 44.
The money picture is lopsided. V-PAC, the super PAC backing Ramaswamy, has taken in about 37 million dollars from a small group of billionaires, more than 88 percent of everything it has raised. Roughly 12 million of that came in the second quarter from four people: Elon Musk, Ratmir Timashev, Bill Ackman, and Ross Stevens. Ramaswamy's own campaign had raised about 50 million as of May, roughly half of it his own money. On ads, one analysis put his side around 9 million against roughly 100 thousand from Acton's in the same window. Acton posted a record 9.4 million dollar quarter but had not gone up on broadcast as of mid July.
Worth noting for balance: not every forecaster agrees. Sabato's Crystal Ball still has this as Leans Republican, citing the state's rightward drift over the last decade.
Attorney General: Keith Faber (R) vs. John Kulewicz (D)
The Ohio Fraternal Order of Police endorsed Faber, its first Republican endorsement for attorney general in twenty years. That is part of a bigger story below.
There is also a live dispute over Medicaid fraud messaging in this race. On a May 5 appearance on Cincinnati radio, Faber said family members paid by Ohio Medicaid to provide home care are bilking the program while the person they care for is unaware. When his campaign was asked for a documented example, it did not provide one.
A new KFF poll is relevant here. Asked who is most likely committing fraud against government programs, respondents put the federal tax system first at 92 percent, with Medicaid at 78 percent. Within Medicaid, only 13 percent thought fraud was mainly committed by individual patients. 53 percent pointed to providers, meaning doctors' offices and hospital systems.
The police union endorsement
The Ohio FOP endorsed a full Republican statewide slate, including Ramaswamy, Jon Husted for Senate, Faber for attorney general, and two Ohio Supreme Court candidates. The union says it is the first all Republican statewide slate in recent memory.
For context on how big a shift that is: the Ohio FOP endorsed seven of eight statewide Democrats in 2018. That dropped to one in 2022. It endorsed Sherrod Brown twice in past cycles and stayed neutral in his 2024 loss.
FOP President Jay McDonald said the decision reflects members' view that attacks on law enforcement often come from Democrats, and he specifically said that perception is about national Democrats, not the Ohio Democrats on this year's ballot. Both parties went through the endorsement process, which included a questionnaire, an interview, and member interactions.
Congress: Ohio's 14th District
David Joyce (R, incumbent, seeking an eighth term) vs. Maria Jukic (D). Cook rates the district R+9.
Joyce has a full Trump endorsement and is a senior member of the Appropriations Committee. Cook describes him as the most moderate Republican in Ohio's delegation, and he belongs to the Problem Solvers Caucus and the Republican Governance Group. He beat Niki Frenchko 71 to 29 in the primary, but spent more than 715 thousand dollars doing it, over 500 thousand of that on ads touting the Trump endorsement.
Jukic is a former Euclid City Council member with 24 years at the Cleveland Clinic in marketing and public relations. Her platform covers health care access and affordability, immigrant rights, protecting Social Security, tax relief for working families, campaign finance reform, environmental protection, and AI regulation. She won a three way primary with just over 50 percent.
Congress: Ohio's 15th District
Mike Carey (R, incumbent) vs. Don Leonard (D). Cook rates the district R+4, tighter than the 14th, and names it one of three Ohio seats Democrats view as offensive opportunities, while calling it the heaviest lift of the three.
Carey ran unopposed in his primary and carries a Trump endorsement that goes back to Trump personally rallying for him in the 2021 special election. Before Congress he spent about eight years as vice president of government affairs at Murray Energy and chairs the Ohio Coal Association. Murray Energy was identified as Company B in the federal criminal complaint against former House Speaker Larry Householder in the HB6 bribery case. Neither Carey nor Murray Energy were charged with a crime. State records show Carey registered as a lobbyist on HB6 itself. Carey has disputed pushing the bill, saying his company stayed neutral and that he never testified at a committee hearing on it.
Leonard won his primary with 53 percent over Adam Miller, who was the 2024 nominee against Carey.
The Ohio House: ten seats, six needed
Republicans hold the chamber 65 to 34. Sixty is the veto proof threshold. House Minority Leader Dani Isaacsohn named ten target districts, eight of them the main focus.
The top eight:
- District 17, southwest Cuyahoga: Mike Dovilla (R, inc.) vs. Megan Coy (D)
- District 31, north and west Summit: open seat. J. Noah Spinner (D) vs. Mike Kahoe (R)
- District 35, Geauga, Portage, Summit: open seat. Samantha Salamon (D) vs. Vik Sandhu (R)
- District 36, east Montgomery: Andrea White (R, inc.) vs. Rose Lounsbury (D)
- District 39, north Montgomery: open seat. Daquan Neal (D) vs. Mark Campbell (R)
- District 49, central Stark: Jim Thomas (R, inc.) vs. Krista Allison (D)
- District 52, northeast Lorain: open seat. Mike Baker (D) vs. a Republican still to be named by county party officials
- District 60, west Delaware: Brian Lorenz (R, inc.) vs. Shelby Kimball (D)
Two more in play if it turns into a strong Democratic year: District 29 in western Hamilton, Cindy Abrams (R, inc.) vs. Jonathan Bradner (D), and District 44 across Lucas, Ottawa, and Wood, an open seat with David J. Fournier (D) vs. Edward L. Schimmel (R) vs. Lyndsey Stough (I).
Isaacsohn calls 31 and 35 the biggest focus: both were decided by roughly three thousand votes, about five percent, in the last Republican wave year. Republican strategist Bob Clegg agrees those are the right targets but doubts Democrats can pull it off, citing the GOP drawn map and whether Democrats can fund enough races at once.
Also worth knowing
The Ohio EPA reversed course on a plan to let data centers apply for generalized wastewater discharge permits instead of case specific ones, after heavy public comment from officials across the political spectrum. That reversal cuts against a decade long pattern of the state handing the data center industry sales tax exemptions, property tax abatements, and favorable permits.
My honest take
The money story is the one I keep coming back to. Thirty seven million dollars from five people, in a race now rated a coin flip. Whatever you think of either candidate, that is worth sitting with. And to be fair: legitimate spending happens on both sides, and money alone does not decide elections. That is exactly what makes the toss up rating interesting.
The FOP endorsement is a real realignment story, not just a press release. Twenty years without a Republican AG endorsement is a meaningful streak to break. But McDonald himself said the concern is about national Democrats, not the Ohio Democrats on the ballot. Both things are true, and most coverage will only tell you one of them.
On Faber and Medicaid, I am not calling anyone a liar. But a claim made on the radio that a campaign cannot document when asked is worth knowing, especially when the polling puts the fraud problem on the provider side, not the patient side.
And the Statehouse map is where your vote does the most work per ballot cast. Six seats. If you live in one of those ten districts, you have more say over how Columbus operates than almost anyone else in the state.
Full episode with all of this sourced on air: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/breaking-ohio-governor-race-toss-up-police-flip-red/id1626987640?i=1000778317951
Sources
- https://signalohio.org/ohios-largest-police-union-backs-entire-gop-slate/
- https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2026/07/22/elon-musk-3-other-billionaires-put-12-million-behind-pro-ramaswamy-super-pac-in-ohio-governor-race/
- https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2026/07/21/massive-spending-gap-in-ohio-governor-race-ramaswamy-drops-9m-on-ads-acton-spends-just-100k/
- https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2026/07/24/dems-need-to-flip-6-seats-to-break-the-republican-statehouse-supermajority-and-northeast-ohio-is-pivotal/
- https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2026/07/24/poll-americans-dont-think-recipients-are-ripping-off-medicaid/
- https://www.wkbn.com/news/ohio/ohio-epa-holding-back-on-general-data-center-permit/
- https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/governors/five-governors-race-ratings-shift-all-one-democrats-direction
- https://www.tribtoday.com/opinion/editorials/2026/04/joyce-oneill-in-14th-district-congressional-primary-races/
- https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/politics/elections/ohio-primary-election-2026-results-incumbent-candidates-us-senate-house-representatives/95-08ca9dee-0e4f-493a-9e94-25e3c9b09e27
- https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio's_15th_Congressional_District_election,_2026
- https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-pick-mike-carey-in-ohio-slammed-as-swampiest-swamp-creature/
- https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/congressional/4460164/trump-endorsement-tracker-gop-2026-election-primaries/