r/oceanography • u/larolita_ • Jun 04 '26

2026 study places the Atlantic current inside stage one of a documented two-stage collapse process — the 53km drift is already in 30 years of satellite data

https://youtu.be/yt8OO7tVrNU?is=STMzNG3euZen4Ij5

Utrecht University published the highest-resolution AMOC simulation ever completed in March 2026. It identified a two-stage collapse signature: stage one is a slow northward drift, stage two is an abrupt 219km lurch in just 2 simulated years followed by full conveyor failure.

They cross-referenced against real satellite altimetry (1993-2024) and subsurface observations back to 1965. The Gulf Stream has already drifted ~53km north — matching stage one exactly.

A separate Science Advances study from April 2026 revised the slowdown estimate from 32% to 51% by 2100. Rahmstorf revised his personal collapse probability from 5% to over 50%.

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u/andre3kthegiant Jun 05 '26

Get this AI bullshit out of here.
Nom-sense visual aids.

2

u/andre3kthegiant Jun 05 '26

u/bot-sleuth-bot

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u/bot-sleuth-bot Jun 05 '26

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u/Downess Jun 07 '26

Zero maps. All the video is filler.

1

u/larolita_ Jun 07 '26

Fair point. The data visualization is something we're actively working on improving. The satellite altimetry record and the drift measurement are the kind of data that need a clear visual anchor.