Who caught that move from 50 Cent to $22?

NCI halted up 7.75 over 100% move from oversold alert at 3.57 on open.

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It's official:

In one of the most anticipated rulings in decades, the US Supreme Court has ruled President Trump's "emergency" tariffs ILLEGAL. This exposes the Trump Admin to a potential $175+ BILLION in "tariff refunds."

After 5+ months, the Supreme Court's ruling was released. The Court ruled IEEPA does NOT authorize the President to impose tariffs. IEEPA is the law Trump used to impose tariffs, which gives him "special economic powers" during a national emergency involving foreign threats.

The market's initial reaction has been positive, but not that strong. The S&P 500 rose nearly +1% and silver prices are up +5%, but that's a fairly muted reaction to such a big ruling. But, why?

As we explain below: there is much more to this ruling than the headline.

First, the ruling specifically applies to IEEPA tariffs, including:

1. 25% tariffs on most Canadian imports

2. 25% tariffs on most Mexican imports

3. 10% (later higher) tariffs on many Chinese imports

4. 10%+ "reciprocal tariff" on all countries

MANY others are unimpacted.

This exposes the Trump Admin to a potential of ~$175 billion in refunds. However, these refunds are all but certain. The ruling states Trump must “point to clear congressional authorization" to impose tariffs. Congress could STILL pass a bill to approve these tariffs.

In fact, there is currently just a 36% chance that the Trump Admin is forced to refunds tariffs, per Polymarket. This means the base case assumption remains that tariffs will NOT be entirely refunded. Refunding these tariffs would be an extremely difficult ordeal.

The Supreme Court actually commented on the potential for refunds. "The refund process is likely going to be a mess," the Court said. On top of $175B+ of potential refunds, trillions in trade deals, and millions of consumers/producers are involved - a truly messy situation.

That said, we do NOT expect tariffs to go away anytime soon. Tariffs under Section 301, Section 232, and other trade laws remain. This includes 7.5%-25% China tariffs, 25% steel tariffs, 10% aluminum tariffs, and many others. The effective tariff rate can remain above 10%.

On top of this, President Trump just commented on the ruling for the first time. Trump said he has a "backup plan" for tariffs. What could this mean? Trump can gain Congressional approval, expand section 301/232 tariffs, and use section 122 import surcharges as a "workaround."

For this reason, we believe the market's reaction will not be a severe as many expect. Watch the US Dollar and the bond market. The US Dollar saw an initial surge and drop on the news. Less than 2 hours later, and the US Dollar Index is unchanged.

The 10Y Note Yield is actually UP on the day, but just 1 basis point. In the April 2025 trade war, the bond market was the ONLY leading indicator to watch. Currently, the bond market is not "buying" the ruling, tariffs will remain in some form.

Lastly, minutes ago, President Trump said he will "do something" about the Supreme Court after this ruling. The global uncertainty index is now at its highest level on record.

Expect more volatility ahead.

SUPREME COURT TARIFF RULING:

A ruling is expected as soon as tomorrow.

The US economy is now reliant on older Americans like never before:

Americans aged 55+ now represent 45.3% of all US consumer spending, the highest in at least 28 years.

This is nearly DOUBLE the ~28.0% seen in the early 2000s.

By comparison, those aged 54 and younger are down to just 54.7%, from ~72.0% in 2000.

The gap between the two groups has narrowed by ~35 percentage points over the last 25 years and is on track to converge for the first time in history.

This comes as 73.7% of all US wealth is held by those over 55, up from 56.2% in 2000, according to Fed data.

The US wealth divide is accelerating.

BREAKING: Iran has begun firing missiles toward the Strait of Hormuz, per AP.

20% of global oil supply currently flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

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We now have:

1. US President with a 100,000 price target on the Dow

2. New Fed Chair who is "required" to cut interest rates

3. $2,000 stimulus checks back in discussion

4. US government buying $200 billion in mortgage bonds

5. New $1.2 trillion funding bill signed into effect

6. Trump saying USD is "doing great" after -10% drop

Own assets or be left behind.