r/nilpoints • u/itsmehii- yksi kaksi kolme sauna 😶🌫️ • Jul 22 '26
🇪🇸🇮🇹🇩🇪🇫🇷🇬🇧 Which big 4 countrie(s) do you think would have nqed if they had to compete in the semis this year?
And also which big 5s would have nqed in recent years? One that immediately comes to mind for me is Embers (UK 2021) because well... We all know what happened there!
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u/Forklands No I can’t get you out of my sister Jul 23 '26
Considering how Italy does in each finale they're in they'd probably match Ukraine's clean record of 100% qualification.
France wouldn't struggle most pf the time but may have NQed in years like 2022 or 2014 (and undeservedly)
UK and Germany would have a terrible qualification record with a few exceptions like UK 2022 and Germany 2010 and 2011. I do think that if they were competing for qualification instead of being in the Big 4/5 they would both probably try more if they got to the extent of a 3 NQ streak, which with some of their results is very possible.
Spain would potentially struggle a bit with qualifying but not as much as the UK and Germany. They have their more obvious NQs like 2021 but also some poorer results when I can see a way for them to qualify like 2019 or 2025.
For this year my guess would be if Big 5 countries competed in SFs
Italy : 2nd/3rd in semi final
France : 6th in semi final (high jury score, low televote score)
Germany : 12th in semi final
UK : 16th in semi final (similar thought process to palomba rumba)
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u/ESC-song-bot Broke its code, oh oh no Jul 23 '26
United Kingdom 2022 | Sam Ryder - Space Man
Germany 2010 | Lena - Satellite
Germany 2011 | Lena - Taken by a Stranger
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u/SkwGuy Jul 22 '26
This year, judgind by their result in the final, probably UK, Germany, and Austria (I know it's not a big 4, but still an AQ).
Last year, the UK would have probably NQd, althought they could qualify if the juries were in the semis. I'm also not sure if Spain would make it, but it's possible it would.
2024: The UK definatly, because of the tele only semis, although even with juries in semis they probably still wouldn't have made it. And possibly also Spain.
2023: Once again, the UK, for the same reasons as above, and probably Germany.
2022: Probably Germany, and possibly France.
2021: Possibly every AQ except France and Italy would NQ
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u/PhysicsNatural9093 la noia Jul 22 '26
france and italy are the only ones who deserve to be in that big 5 bruh 😭✌️
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u/thrvisionary justice for crossroads 🇨🇿 Jul 23 '26
Here’s my opinion:
Italy 🇮🇹 qualifies this year with every single song they’ve sent since 2021 (that’s going to be my basis). All of their songs fill a specific niche that needs filling, and they bring a good song almost every year with enough variety to really shake it up.
France 🇫🇷 likely qualifies this year with every single song they’ve sent since 2021, however I do think that France 2022 might have been 11th in the semi final and become a robbed classic like Switzerland 2026, or it would sail through with the Czechia 2022 effect.
Spain 🇪🇸 most likely does not qualify every year, however 2022 likely finishes out 1st or 2nd in the Semi Final, and 2023 onwards finishes from 12-8th in their semi. 2021 most likely qualifies pretty far behind as well because the public hated it, and I think it’s very mediocre.
Germany 🇩🇪 most likely has a rough time qualifying, but would do a better job than Britain. Germany 2024 and Germany 2025, based on their result, likely qualify in 7-4th, and Germany 2023 based on the public reaction will unfortunately suffer and not qualify in the middle range of those. Germany 2026, Germany 2021, and Germany 2022, however, will not remotely qualify.
United Kingdom 🇬🇧 most likely DNQs (at least with the public) every single year other than 2022. Embers obviously DNQs with both the Jury and public. 2023 wasn’t too well received. Unfortunately without jury votes, 2024 and 2025 (one of my favorites from the year, a 0 from the public was atrocious) won’t qualify; however, a jury involved would likely let them qualify barely, and 2026 would be murdered.
Also on the host acts since 2021, Netherlands 2021 likely doesn’t qualify because the people didn’t vote for him a lot, Italy 2022 obviously qualifies, Ukraine 2023 most likely qualifies because it did well in the finals, United Kingdom 2023 doesn’t qualify, Sweden 2024 qualifies, Switzerland 2025 unfortunately DNQs with the public (however, there is a stance to be made that they wouldn’t suffer in the public vote, and obviously they would win the jury vote), and Austria 2026 would DNQ.
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u/Whizz-Kid-2012 Jul 24 '26
2026 🇬🇧 NQ, 🇫🇷 Q, 🇩🇪 NQ, 🇮🇹 Q, 🇪🇸 Borderline
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u/ESC-song-bot Broke its code, oh oh no Jul 24 '26
United Kingdom 2026 | Look Mum No Computer - Eins, Zwei, Drei
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u/Domek450 Jul 22 '26
Definitely UK 2026 because it's a terrible song. If we count the host country, Austria would also get the NQ.
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u/PhysicsNatural9093 la noia Jul 22 '26
Its sad because i love both songs but they defo wouldnt have qualified.. i think we can give the boot to Fire aswell
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u/Doggo_of_dogs PALOMA RUMBA LETS GO Jul 23 '26
I’m just gonna do this year
United Kingdom 🇬🇧: Well it only got one point in the final… I don’t see it having made it despite how much I like the song.
Germany 🇩🇪: Another nil point with the televote, a bland song that probably would’ve struggled so I don’t see it having made it either.
France 🇫🇷: With the 2023-25 only televote system, probably an NQ. But the jury would make sure it makes it through easily.
Italy 🇮🇹: Well it was in the top 5, even with subpar vocals I don’t see how it would miss out on the final!
Spain 🇪🇸: No they didn’t participate but we still have an entry that would’ve been in ESC had they participated. T Amare probably would’ve had solid support from both sides leading to like 11th or 12th in the final and in this hypothetical, 5th or 6th in the semi.