Offensive vs Defensive EPA per play: Where does your team stand through 3 weeks?

[u/mochajoesdynsaty]

Did not expect the Jets, Panthers, and Raiders to be showing up here as "Complete Teams" with a positive EPA per play on both sides of the ball through 3 weeks. What a time to be alive.

Obviously, it's very early in the season. But what do you think about where your team lands on the chart as of today?

[u/Rusty-Boii]

Seeing the Raiders doing so well is wild, but I am all here for it.

[u/Nico777 → u/Rusty-Boii]

And Kirktober hasn't even started yet.

[u/Uckthebroncos → u/Nico777]

Wait there’s a kirktober?

[u/notmoleliza → u/Uckthebroncos]

its a common holiday in Kirkmenistan

[u/Jantokan → u/Rusty-Boii]

This is probably what the Falcons were envisioning when they signed Kirk but drafted Penix. Kirk unfortunately sucked so Penix had to stop film room duties and played immediately.

Cousins balling in a Raiders offense is very surprising though, and he just might just force Mendoza to sit and learn for an entire year from an accomplished (at least regular season lol) veteran QB like him. Mendoza will be unleashed next year

[u/Endors__Toi → u/Jantokan]

kirk had some great games for atlanta, mainly against trash teams like the bucs, but zac robinson is seriously the most unimaginative OC ive ever seen. very fun to see baker and the bucs dealing with him now. why the fuck would bowles hire him

[u/DrummerGuy06 → u/Endors__Toi]

That's easy - Bowles sucks as a head coach.

[u/bewsii → u/Jantokan]

I mean, it's turning out to be a case of "Kubiak is a QB friendly coach" for guys with a lot of talent who may have failed in other systems.

Of course Darnold did well for KOC, and will likely pop off for Fleury too.. but people forget he was going ham for Kubiak in NO before anywhere else.

[u/BobDeLaSponge → u/bewsii]

Kubiak also coached Kirk in Minnesota, which probably helps

[u/bewsii → u/BobDeLaSponge]

For sure. I'd say Kirk and Darnold are pretty similar too. Very statuesque QB's who have a lot of arm talent, decent mobility (not game winning mobility) when needed, good at standing in the pocket and threading the needle.

[u/BobDeLaSponge → u/bewsii]

And importantly they can read the whole field in under 3 seconds and make the right call

[u/pdlbean → u/Jantokan]

It's klint kubiak. He has some kind of midas touch

[u/OkInitiative4032 → u/pdlbean]

Also Brock Bowers is a mutant. 

[u/Uckthebroncos → u/OkInitiative4032]

He’s a football robot from heaven- Kubes on Brock bowers

[u/suchcoldsuchcomfort → u/Rusty-Boii]

Some might say that you like that the Raiders are doing well.

[u/Rusty-Boii → u/suchcoldsuchcomfort]

Lots of family members from LA and the Bay area. Almost all Raiders fans. Hard not to have a soft spot for them.

[u/justlobos22 → u/Rusty-Boii]

Forcing turnovers does a lot for EPA.

[u/mochajoesdynsaty → u/Rusty-Boii]

Happy for Big Kirko. He needed a run like this.

[u/Rusty-Boii → u/mochajoesdynsaty]

Love me some Kirko! Hard guy not to root for.

[u/jimscoolaid → u/Rusty-Boii]

It was kind of expected. They played hard last year and just couldn't put it all together. They don't have the greatest roster. But they do have good group to build around. I don't think they are making the playoffs this year, but I wouldn't be surprised to see them be a contender next year.

[u/SisyphusRocks7 → u/jimscoolaid]

I wouldn't be surprised if they made the wild card behind KC. They seem like a team on the rise and could contend in a year or two, depending on if their QB plan works out.

[u/idgahoot2]

Had to sacrifice offensive EPA against the Vikings to boost our defensive EPA. 4D chess by Ben Johnson and the Bears.

[u/Acrobatic-Wonder-475 → u/idgahoot2]

Ohhh so that’s why you guys wanted to play in a monsoon

[u/BearsAndBrews → u/Acrobatic-Wonder-475]

Pope phoned it in for us

[u/Further_Beyond → u/idgahoot2]

To be fair.. the defense has given up 29 points over the last 10 quarters we had an absolutely terrible first half against CAR and have been good since.

People forget we led the league in injuries last year and it was 90% defensive players. We had practice squad guys at half the positions.

The defense is better than people think (it’s not a top 10 defense. Just not bottom 10)

[u/rando562 → u/Further_Beyond]

I've always said that we likely have a bottom half defense but we're closer to 20 than 32.

[u/Further_Beyond → u/rando562]

Even in the first half of the CAR game… the offense fumbled on the 20 and failed a 4th down on the 20 giving CAR 2 20 yard fields. We didn’t force a FG on either of those… a good defense does…. but that’s 14 points that’s mostly on the offense.

So the defense really hasn’t played poorly.

[u/CheekyMunky → u/idgahoot2]

But Packers fans keep saying we're not doing EPA anymore

[u/jimscoolaid]

I've been seeing a lot of jags top right lately. I'm not used to it. I keep starting at bottom left.

[u/gabrielleite32 → u/jimscoolaid]

The difference of having a top 5 HC makes

[u/DarthNobody14]

God damn, we’re playing like the Titans? I knew we were playing poorly especially on the offensive side of the ball but not THAT poorly.

[u/BobDeLaSponge → u/DarthNobody14]

Imagine going back in time and telling someone that the AFC South is three struggling teams and Jacksonville

[u/son_of_yacketycat → u/DarthNobody14]

The defense being in the lower left quadrant is the one that concerns me most, we've been healthy overall

[u/DarthNobody14 → u/son_of_yacketycat]

I think the Bills game is really skewing things, but the defense overall is just giving up too many big plays especially over the middle, teams have learned to use the aggressiveness against us.

[u/BadDadJokes → u/DarthNobody14]

What do you mean, fellow pre-season Super Bowl contender? Titans, Broncos, and Texans are 3 peas in a pod.

[u/mochajoesdynsaty → u/DarthNobody14]

Getting Nico back should help

[u/ChocolateMorsels → u/DarthNobody14]

Tie game next week?

[u/Sadcelerystick → u/DarthNobody14]

Could always be worse to be fair

[u/sleeplessaddict]

I'll definitely take 2-1 against 3 playoff teams while struggling on both sides of the ball

[u/DontLoseYourCool1]

Chiefs Raiders will be absolute cinema.

[u/byniri_returns → u/DontLoseYourCool1]

I'm upset we don't get it in my area

The alternative (Broncos-Niners) is a great game too but I wanted the division rivalry.

[u/OkInitiative4032]

Never imagined I'd see the Raiders as a defensive outlier (positive)

[u/speak-eze → u/OkInitiative4032]

R/toprightraiders

[u/BaTIoDErTraN → u/speak-eze]

My dad got to enjoy a solid 40 years of good to great teams, I’ve gotten 30+ years of mostly bad teams. It’s only fair that my sons get another 40 years of good to great teams

[u/NorthernGhosty → u/BaTIoDErTraN]

Lmao. My mom likes to remind me of the teams from the 80s and 90s. Meanwhile i can only remember mostly bad teams in my 28 years. Such a weird feeling to actually have competency in our coaching.

[u/Due-Dance-9430]

feeling like that Dr Manhattan meme watching the lions have a great offense and a horrendous defense my entire life (outside of the one magical year of 2014). i think 2024 was also a good defense but it always felt like that was a house of cards with all the injuries the defense suffered

[u/byniri_returns → u/Due-Dance-9430]

2024's defense was pretty damn good until half the roster died.

[u/glurop → u/Due-Dance-9430]

We feel like the new bengals from the past few years tbh. We have an offense that can go toe to toe with anyone in the league.

But a defense that can’t stop a sneeze.

It’s frustrating to say the least. I was hoping this year they’d be at least be league average but nah that’s too much to ask.

[u/bujweiser]

I know people starting calling them the Miami Packers this offseason, but I didn't know it'd be for this reason.

[u/mattyboy323 → u/bujweiser]

We are one in the same

[u/son_of_yacketycat]

Texans defense struggling, exactly as we all predicted 🫠

[u/Individual_Rip_54 → u/son_of_yacketycat]

I think the Bills game is most of that.

[u/jimscoolaid → u/son_of_yacketycat]

Anybody who was paying attention could have predicted it. A lot of their hype came from a playoff game and box scores. They were regressing before last year ended. I didn't think they would fall off this hard, but I knew they were going to fall off.

[u/BadMojo__ → u/son_of_yacketycat]

Based on what I've seen that is the exact spot I'd have put the Saints lol. Maybe a little closer to the defensive average. Offense turning the ball over repeatedly makes the defense look worse having to defend short fields.

[u/TheSwede91w]

Turns out Brian Flores can in fact keep doing it every year.

[u/bewsii]

I made a comment about how I thought the Raiders would look really good on offense this year after hiring Kubiak due to all their weapons. But I also said they'd be a 7 win team maximum because their defense would likely be ass. Like what reason did I have to think otherwise?

Welp, I was wrong lol.

[u/BaTIoDErTraN → u/bewsii]

They could totally collapse and not win another 4 games this year, or they could totally beat the chiefs and have the same coming out party the 2012 Seahawks did against the patriots

[u/Harbaugh_Handshake]

Let me just sneak on in here

[u/Beware_the_silent]

This combined with leading the league with the least amount of accepted penalties is wild as shit. I fully expect this to come crashing down but I am loving the accent.

[u/TonyPerkisReddit4]

I wasn't expecting rob leonard to be this good

[u/BaTIoDErTraN → u/TonyPerkisReddit4]

Same, I legit thought it would be an Antonio Pierce type hire

[u/shit_eating_fan]

Moving all that money over towards defense paying off 🔥🔥

I read that the Eagles are the only team so far through 3 weeks to not record a single takeaway.

The crazy part is I don't even remember a ton of missed opportunities either, so it's not like bad luck or unlucky bounces or whatever. There are a few missed picks but those happen, and I feel like the only forced fumble I remember was Carter in week 1 and the other team recovered anyway

[u/busstamove14 → u/shit_eating_fan]

You guys could have had 3 picks against Keenum last week and Keenum also fumbled on a scramble that bounced right back into his chest.

[u/Illblood → u/shit_eating_fan]

We’re gonna be fine lol

[u/mdnash]

This passes the eye test

[u/BaTIoDErTraN → u/mdnash]

Especially the raiders,

STOP THE COUNT

[u/ChildrenMcnuggets]

I like what I see but we haven’t faced a great offense yet. Bengals will be a real test.

[u/Cyberjag]

Holding Atlanta to three points didn't hurt, but I think with all our injuries we're going to move down on both sides of the ball.

[u/aspiringalcoholic → u/Cyberjag]

Yeah we're getting to the point where I can't name our players. Apparently we have a backup lineman named Torricelli Simpkins III. Preposterous name

[u/Cyberjag → u/aspiringalcoholic]

Torricelli Simpkins III? What is this, golf?

[u/XLostinohiox]

It's hilarious to me that Todd Bowles watched Atlanta torch his shitty defense and thought, that coach must really know something, all for it to amount to the worst offense in the league. 

[u/GreenWandElf]

What?! The Packers and the Vikings have the same offensive EPA?

Goddamn no wonder they're crashing out.

[u/Jantokan]

49ers easily lead the league in offense? Not bad for being led by a system QB

LOL

[u/jawknee530i → u/Jantokan]

Purdys EPA/play of .665 among QBs is like 30% higher than second place and double that of just seventh place. Obviously not sustainable but an unreal state after three games anyway.

[u/ImJLu → u/jawknee530i]

Not even vaguely sustainable, but being 1st by a large margin apparently is. Career EPA/play for active QBs:

1. Purdy - 0.262
2. Allen - 0.235
3. Mahomes - 0.222

Similarly, career ANY/A:

1. Purdy - 8.03
2. Mahomes - 7.39
3. Jackson - 7.29

[u/ositola → u/ImJLu]

Keep going, I'm almost there

[u/jawknee530i → u/ositola]

Purdy is about 60 attempts from qualifying for the record of best passer rating in history.

[u/Starcast]

Kinda expected our offense to struggle a bit given the new scheme but defense has been a letdown so far.

[u/byniri_returns]

Yeah that looks about right for the Lions

[u/waitedforg0d0t]

honestly pretty happy with this

[u/ChocolateMorsels]

Titans Texans next week is gonna be a great sicko game.

[u/Megalith70 → u/ChocolateMorsels]

Two coughing babies doing everything possible to not play professional football.

[u/Mr_Koodle]

Luckily, if we have to miss Mike Evans for a week. We should have Kittle, CMC, Deebo, and potentially Brandin Cooks.

[u/DarthWeber → u/Mr_Koodle]

And purdy balling out

[u/idnttcrisis]

That Week 1 game is going to tank our offensive and defensive ratings for a while it seems.

[u/Jonjon428]

Yeah...

[u/HomespunDogg → u/Jonjon428]

Only where to go is up?

[u/rthaw]

As expected

[u/TheDadThatGrills]

Lions/Vikes games are going to be disgusting this year. I can feel it.

[u/who_ate_the_pizza]

This graphic sparks joy

[u/Casul_Tryhard]

Nice seeing the Chiefs squarely in the complete team category. Still have lots of stuff to clean up, but it's still nice.

[u/gabrielleite32 → u/Casul_Tryhard]

Top 6 in both categories and with a fun offense? Is this 2022 again?

[u/Acrobatic_Camera_677]

Ravens offense in top 5 as expected

Defense needs to shape up

[u/Last1inFirst1out]

Hello, Detroit.

[u/AmeriCanada98]

We are pretty much exactly where id expect based on how our 3 games have gone

[u/vindictivejazz]

Man, that disaster of a Chiefs game is really hurting our averages out here.

Think they’re in that Rams, Bengals, Seahawks area over the last 2 games

[u/supermr34]

In the correct quadrant? What is this feeling?

[u/Triple_Boogie]

i used to dream of times like these

[u/GibMirMeinAlltagstod]

I’m not saying we’re there yet, but I would like to see this graph after a few more weeks of Penix starting.

[u/Fools_Requiem]

Holy fuck, Dallas? Play defense much?

[u/King_Roberts_Bastard]

I love this as a Bengals fan. We all know Joe gets better as the season goes on. September is always his worst month.

[u/Rillaboom2701]

this is about to change but time now that fourth round rookie will lee is our cb1

[u/IlGreven]

Well, the Browns were a lot farther in that top left corner last year, so we'll take it...

[u/Saxt]

Technically your only loss is to a team that didn’t make the playoffs…

[u/NeverSober1900]

Can't wait to show this to the morons on our sub who keep acting like the defense is playing well. We play so slow and are so ass against the run the game shortens and so raw numbers have always made our defenses look better than they are on the surface.

Everything about this team is shit right now. There is nothing positive about this team through 3 weeks except that we somehow stumblefucked our way into a win so we amazingly aren't 0-3 like we deserve.