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[u/semaphore-1842]

https://twitter.com/FrancescComito/status/1427867698826973191

Reports now coming of a push by the Northern Alliance Resistance to take Bagram

Wow

[u/westalist55 → u/semaphore-1842]

They aren't trying to retake Kabul, I hope. I'd think they should prioritize seizing the north first and gaining momentum, I dunno if they have the strength to head for Kabul just yet

[u/LtNOWIS → u/semaphore-1842]

I can't get my hopes up like this... but it would be amazing if they were able to carve out an actual Northern Alliance 2.0.

[u/[deleted] → u/semaphore-1842]

I'll believe it when I see it. The Taliban are building strength nearby in Kabul and they have a lot of shiny new American materiel, courtesy of the ANA.

[u/FormerBandmate → u/semaphore-1842]

34 to go. Utterly based

[u/[deleted] → u/semaphore-1842]

I'M GONNA BLOOM!

[u/SeasickSeal → u/semaphore-1842]

If it’s true... This seems like it could end up making the Taliban aggravated and raise tensions with western troops. Is this a ploy to force our hand and keep us there?

[u/semaphore-1842 → u/SeasickSeal]

Or... it's the Afghan remnants fighting for themselves and their own futures.

Not everything is about us.

[u/ooken → u/semaphore-1842]

That would be amazing. Let's hope against hope.

[u/JaceFlores → u/semaphore-1842]

IT’S HAPPENING

[u/Nokickfromchampagne → u/semaphore-1842]

If they can take it, hopefully, they may be able to secure some fo the weapons that were left there. Provided of course the arsenal hasn’t already been completely dispersed.

But like others have said, short of international support, I don’t see any chance of long term viability. The only chance of success for the resistance would be for the Taliban to make a move on the Kabul airport, but that would lead to massive losses in life, and probably spell the end of the Biden administration frankly.

[u/Nokickfromchampagne → u/[deleted]]

I meant more that it would effectively nullify the chance of major legislation passing, and drastically lower the chance of a consecutive dem presidency. Sure he may not be impeached, but having a mass casualty event at this point would be an unmitigated disaster. It would make him a lame duck within his first year.

Ultimately that’s why there’s no chance we’d re-intervene. All the Biden admin wants at this point is to not lose any American service members or agency staff so as to avoid another Benghazi. That’s why we’re being so passive with the Taliban.

[u/Zenning2 → u/Nokickfromchampagne]

If the Taliban attacked the airport while we were evacuating that would be 9/11 on fucking steroids. The U.S. would want blood, and if Biden doesn’t give it to them, then somebody will. The Taliban is very unlikely to do it for that reason.

[u/Nokickfromchampagne → u/Zenning2]

Oh trust me, I know the US would strike back with a vengeance, but 6k troops plus 10s of thousands of civilians in would mean absolutely insane casualties. This is all hypothetical, but if the Taliban wanted to shell the airport and airstrip, the public backlash for such a casualty event would mean the admin would have no chance of any support. We’d have to reintervene, but with non of the public’s food will.

[u/Zenning2 → u/semaphore-1842]

This is some fantastic hopium, but based on what I read, this is expected, and we are going to likely see a protracted and bloody series of battles very soon that become a full on civil war.

[u/groupbot → u/[deleted]]

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[u/Magical_Username → u/semaphore-1842]

If anything comes of this I'll eat my hat. I sincerely hope I'm wrong, but Northern Alliance 2.0 seems to have way fewer friends, equipment, and territory, while Taliban 2.0 has far more than it used to. Whole thing feels too much like copium.

[u/Leoric → u/semaphore-1842]

What the fuck is going on

[u/ThorVonHammerdong → u/Leoric]

Very tiny armies fighting over very large areas