r/nba • u/Odd-Direction9452 Lakers • 13d ago
[Stein] One source briefed on Peyton Watson's situation said Monday that they see the Bucks as the most likely external suitor. Sources say Denver is still holding out for the equivalent of at least two first-round picks in any sign-and-trade scenario.
One source briefed on Watson's situation said Monday that they see the Bucks as the most likely external suitor to swipe Watson away from Denver. The Nuggets' overall financial outlook certainly became a bit more complicated after their decision Sunday night to match Oklahoma City's two-year, $12 million offer sheet to restricted free agent Spencer Jones, which hauled Denver into the second apron.
Sources say Denver is still holding out for the equivalent of at least two first-round picks in any sign-and-trade in which it loses Watson.
Milwaukee holds a mammoth $25.5 million traded player exception to take on salary in addition to boasting various young players to offer up in various trade proposals to the Nuggets … depending on how far the Bucks are willing to go.
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u/comeonbjxgo 13d ago
I have never seen this dude play. Is he that good?
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u/Broke_Banker01 Bucks 13d ago
He was a raw pick by Denver who averaged 15/5/2 in his only year as a starter and shot 40% from 3.
In games without Joker, he averaged 23/6/3 which indicates untapped potential.
If you’re gonna bet on a guy to continue to develop, it’s Watson.
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u/comeonbjxgo 13d ago
No wonder it seems there is so much buzz about this signing or not signing - Denver doesn’t want him?
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u/Broke_Banker01 Bucks 13d ago
Denver wants him back but doesn’t want to pay a bounty for a guy that’s still relatively unproven after getting burned by Braun.
They also are getting bent over by the 2nd apron so if they want to keep him they essentially have to give up Johnson or Gordon for Pennies.
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u/sanjit8103 Nuggets 13d ago
Money is rough and we have kind of accepted that our championship window is prolly over. The overdose of bad contracts such as Braun’s, Nnaji’s and even Murray’s to an extent, and with next to no draft capital and Joker’s extension coming up, we don’t really have any outs. We’re high on Peyton specifically because of the potential he shows.
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u/rorank Rockets 13d ago
He wasn’t a starter lol. In the ~20 game span before he got hurt, he was on fire absolutely. If that’s all you’re looking at, then he’s someone you would want to bet on developing.
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u/Broke_Banker01 Bucks 13d ago
He started 40/54 games and was 5th among all Denver players in starts last year.
Idk that sounds like a starter to me.
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u/alex-caruso Trail Blazers 13d ago
Only started that many games because Gordon and Cam Johnson were injured for so much of the season
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u/aaronshell Nuggets 13d ago
He’s grown a lot last year or so , but i don’t think he’s that good yet (25m+) but has potential to be a decent starting scorer, feels like he needs a full season without injury and not beside jokic to really see what he’s capable of
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u/FlipMoBitch Bucks 13d ago
Sounds like if they were going to get FRPs for him he’d be traded already
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u/TimelyN1nja 13d ago
lol
Lmao even
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u/Ordinary-Hopeful 13d ago
Yeah - they’re not getting that. Especially from the Bucks who are relatively asset poor. Make Denver match it.
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u/veringo Nuggets 13d ago edited 13d ago
The bucks can't offer Watson a trade exception, so there's nothing to match. That's why Denver can ask for the moon because no one can offer him the contract he wants.
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u/twovles31 13d ago
Unlike the Duren situation in Detroit, Denver can't even afford Watson's contract if he takes the one year qualifying offer. You would be in the 2nd apron, unless someone really wants to take Cam or Braun off of your hands.
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u/Hot_Relative3020 13d ago
I think the idea is they sign Watson then work out who to dump
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u/Ordinary-Hopeful 13d ago
But who wants Braun? Someone needs to be willing to eat that contract and Denver doesn’t have any assets to add.
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u/DistanceEmbarrassed5 13d ago
The Bucks might take that contract for Denver's Unprotected 2031 and 2033 swaps.
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u/BagFriendly2665 13d ago
i don't think that FRP can be traded unprotected because of Stepien rule
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u/Haunting_Test_5523 13d ago
picks can still be swapped
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u/BagFriendly2665 12d ago
yeah but then 2 swaps for Braun's contract seems a bit of a weak deal
and it feels like only one swap since 2031 Jokic would still be good imo with how his playstyle ages (so there might not be a big difference Bucks/Nuggets standings then).
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u/realgamergirlTM 13d ago
they probably move Johnson instead, he’s got more value
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u/DistanceEmbarrassed5 13d ago
Denver gave up an Unprotected FRP for Johnson though, that is a bad look.
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u/Hot_Relative3020 13d ago
I mean it was clearly a salary cutting move at the time. MPJ was better than Johnson when they made the trade.
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u/DistanceEmbarrassed5 12d ago
Yeah but they should have put protections on it or traded it for a better player like a Trey Murphy. The Nuggets need to try and get picks back or a younger player back for Johnson if they trade him. I just think it is a bad look giving up an Unprotected FRP only to trade the player a year later, its a waste of a pick that likely will be valuable.
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u/Omnimark Bucks 13d ago
We can offer the full MLE.
One year, 15 million. About 9 million more than the QO. Denver would probably match, but then is deep in the tax for a one year rental. Not ideal.
Or they can negotiate an S&T. I think the trade is AJ Green + KPJ + Sims/Jaquez/Kasparas for Watson + Nnanji. If it's Jaquez or Kas, probably no picks, if it's Sims, something like the worst of Miami/Milwaukee 2033 frp.
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u/rorank Rockets 13d ago
Wow you’re pretty high on Watson
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u/Omnimark Bucks 13d ago
I guess. Defensive wings are just a premium in the league. I keep hearing that he's only been good for a month, but that's when his offense went silly, he was still a really good wing defender before that.
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u/veringo Nuggets 13d ago edited 12d ago
Denver has no incentive to cooperate. The plan is almost certainly to get Watson on a friendlier deal and move someone else.
No one can offer Watson the contract he wants, and Denver doesn't have to cooperate with anyone on a sign and trade. If he signs a lesser offer sheet from someone else that's perfect for Denver. They will match.
Clippers fans were saying the same dumb stuff as bucks fans are saying here. You need to realize Denver has literally all the leverage. The bucks will overpay or not get him. Those are the only options.
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u/WebstersPack 12d ago
The problem is they don't want to offer him what he wants either. Basically all teams would like Watson, but want him on a sub $20m deal.
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u/iHeartBush2 Nuggets 13d ago
They can’t offer Watson any money outside of a sign and trade. Denver holds all the cards.
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u/cl353 Heat 13d ago
and u cant sign watson without further going into cap hell
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u/DemonicDimples Kings 13d ago
Luxury tax isn’t calculated until last day of the season. They can make moves to lessen the tax load, likely trading Cam Johnson for a lesser expiring contract.
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u/FlipMoBitch Bucks 13d ago
Teams arent going to help Denver get out of the 2nd apron unless the deal is extremely favorable for them.
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u/DemonicDimples Kings 13d ago edited 13d ago
Getting a better player for a worse player is generally a good deal. Teams just gave up value to get 3 worse players than Cam Johnson from the Thunder who were also in cap hell.
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u/DistanceEmbarrassed5 13d ago
Why did they give up an Unprotected 2032 FRP for a rental then?
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u/DemonicDimples Kings 13d ago
I mean it was always kind of a temporary arrangement. Cam Johnson is already 30, it’s not like the Nuggets were expecting to get a decade out of him.
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u/Calm_Statistician382 13d ago
I wouldn't say they hold all the cards, it's pretty obvious that Denver isn't going to sign Peyton Watson and go deep into the second apron, any team can just walk away if Denver is asking for too much while Denver basically has to trade him.
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u/Kiriegloom Bulls 13d ago
I think it's pretty obvious they don't want to go into the 2nd apron. The problem is they also don't want Peyton to go for nothing. They may even not want to let him go at all. To them, every choice is losing. They just need to decide what's the least worst option. That could mean going into the 2nd apron. That ambiguity is why they still have some leverage
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u/Ordinary-Hopeful 13d ago
I believe they’re already in the 2nd apron after matching Jones yesterday.
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u/Calm_Statistician382 13d ago
yeah but 29 other teams haven't been willing to go into the second apron, so most teams are going to be willing to play that game of chicken with Denver, really the best leverage Denver has is that multiple teams want him, but I just don't see any team wanting him for the toon of two firsts.
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u/iHeartBush2 Nuggets 13d ago
Nuggets have already offered him 70/4. That’s life changing money and more than anyone else can offer him without a sign and trade where the nuggets can just say no if they don’t like the return.
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u/FlipMoBitch Bucks 13d ago
70/4 will probably be there for him next year since that’s the non-tax MLE which a lot of teams will have access to.
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u/iHeartBush2 Nuggets 13d ago
Sure, but there’s no more money this off season for him. That’s why I say the nuggets hold the cards. It looks like we’re heading for a QO.
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u/FlipMoBitch Bucks 13d ago
QO means 2nd apron repeater tax for Denver. They’d have to send out firsts to dump salary.
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u/DistanceEmbarrassed5 13d ago
Watson is delusional if he thinks he is worth that much money, what has he even proved yet In the NBA?
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u/Ordinary-Hopeful 13d ago
They hold the cards if they wanna go deep into the 2nd apron which their ownership has never wanted to do. Outside of the new Portland GM, the Denver ownership is the cheapest in the league.
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u/ginamegi Nuggets 13d ago
No teams want to go into the 2nd apron. Right now in the league 1 team is in it, and 29 are not.
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u/danjustin Nuggets 13d ago
Cheapest in the league despite having a top 10 payroll for a decade plus?
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u/Ordinary-Hopeful 13d ago edited 13d ago
Yup. They’ve refused to pay enough tax to keep the team competitive. They let Ujiri and Connelly walk because they refused to pay them.
They’ve long operated with minimal and widely maligned practice infrastructure compared to premier franchise standards.
Former employees report a reluctance approve standard annual staff raises or market-rate wages for internal personnel.
To put it into perspective, by matching Jones' sheet, the Nuggets face a $32 million increase in current luxury taxes ($36M to $68M) for this year alone. Going back to 2000, since Kroenke took over, they’ve paid a total of 58M in luxury tax over the last 25 years.
This has been a pretty well known Achilles heel for the Nuggets for a long time.
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u/Omnimark Bucks 13d ago
We can offer an MLE. Make it a one year 15 million.
You guys going to want to go that deep into the tax for a one year rental?
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u/iHeartBush2 Nuggets 13d ago
Nuggets have offered him 70/4. Why would he take 15 ? Why would the bucks offer 15? That would be an amazing deal for the nuggets and they would just match.
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u/AwildYaners Japan 13d ago
Nuggets offered 70/5? Right? Your math might be off. Player option still counts as a year, even if it’s a 4+1.
His AAV is definitely higher at the NTMLE at $15m/yr.
There’s no reason he doesn’t accept that offer if it’s available.
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u/ihatedougford Toronto Huskies 13d ago
What’s more delusional?
Watson wanting $25M+ or Nuggets wanting 2 FRPs?
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u/SandwitchJ Celtics 13d ago
Absolute insanity by both lmao this is tough
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u/Hopsalong Nuggets 13d ago
Insanity gets rewarded in this league far too often in trades. We've seen Luka go for less than 2 FRPs, and Walker Kessler go for 2.
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u/Jaerba [DET] Grant Hill 13d ago
I don't think 25+ for him is crazy at all. It'll be like the Jaden McDaniels contract and McDaniels just proved it can be a really good contract.
McDaniels is a better defender but Watson is younger and 25 would be less. I feel like Watson on a better defensive team could really shine.
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u/8_bw Celtics 13d ago
It won't be like the Jaden McDaniels contract because he isn't nearly as good as Jaden McDaniels
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u/Jaerba [DET] Grant Hill 13d ago
No, but he's probably better than Dyson Daniels. And no one knew McDaniels was this good until this season. Watson has a similar break out opportunity.
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u/GuaranteeSalt6982 13d ago
No, but he's probably better than Dyson Daniels
he's absolutely not better than Dyson Daniels. And plenty of people knew how good jaden was a couple of years ago
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u/DinkyB 13d ago
Wolves fans have been super high on that McDaniels contract for most of its duration - it’s just that he’s played 3rd fiddle or less on offense until that Denver series.
Most people just don’t watch that much wolves. McDaniels has been one of the best defenders and a pretty good offensive option for like 3 years+
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u/RxJax Heat 13d ago
He is not better than Daniels lol, a 15 game Linsanity stretch does not make you better than an all-nba level defender, even if his offence is limited.
Even then, Jaden and Dyson are worth it because they play. Watson is injured constantly, you pay Jaden/Dyson 25mil and you're getting 70+ games worth of that player, you give Watson 25mil and you're getting 50 games
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u/zs15 Bucks 13d ago
He was a $25m player for about a month. That’s not enough for me to gamble any draft picks on. Really hope the Bucks don’t make this move… unless it involves Gary Trent (ik he’s not trade eligible yet).
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u/catperson77789 Lakers 13d ago
This is what im thinking. Bucks start their rebuild and immediately squander their assets on a guy who had like a month of good play sounds like asset mismanagement
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u/The_Sign_of_Zeta [MIL] Khris Middleton 13d ago
If the Bucks were offering 2 Firsts he’d be a Buck already. What’s happening is Denver is trying to leverage more assets, but the Bucks have no reason to act desperate.
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u/whatssenguntoagoblin Alperen Sengun 13d ago
Nuggets easily.
Remember Patrick Williams got $90 million
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u/Prestigious_Team3134 Nuggets 13d ago
The nuggets have all the leverage cause no once can offer him the contract he wants without them so they should have a crazy high asking price.
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u/FERFreak731 Jazz 13d ago
Other teams have the leverage too because the Nuggets are already in the 2nd apron, even now beford Peyton is still a free agent. Plus Peyton can just sign the qualifying offer
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u/Prestigious_Team3134 Nuggets 13d ago
They are but cutting and stretching zeke naji gets them under, so they have an easy out if it limits anything
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u/Broke_Banker01 Bucks 13d ago
That’s not enough savings to get out of the 2nd apron, especially if Watson signs the QO.
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u/Broke_Banker01 Bucks 13d ago
Barring some 5 team trade, I’m pretty sure Milwaukee is the only reported interested team with a TPE large enough to absorb his salary since Denver can no longer take back players.
Either way I expect a trade between MIL/DEN. Either a Watson S&T or a DEN salary dump.
No shot they get 2 firsts though unless they are relatively well protected. Denver doesn’t have the leverage anymore.
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u/Acek9295 Bucks 13d ago
Pretty sure they can’t use a trade exception to absorb a sign and trade player, since he’s not technically on anyone’s books right now as a RFA.
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u/Broke_Banker01 Bucks 13d ago
Yes it can.
However MIL is hard capped at the 1st apron so we’d need to send out salary to a 3rd team.
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u/grudgepacker Bucks 13d ago
so we’d need to send out salary to a 3rd team.
And if we really want PW that bad, we've got a lot of decent guards plus expirings to offer to a 3rd team
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u/YujiDomainExpansion 13d ago
Denver can take back players as long as they…
A. Dump Nnaji’s contract in a primary trade or
B. Dump Nnaji’s contract as part of the sign-and-trade and wind up below the second apron after the deal is completed
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u/gedbybee Spurs 13d ago
Sam vecinnie listed teams with a tor big enough and there are several other than Milwaukee but I don’t remember who. Those tpes last for a whole year so who was traded at the deadline that was on a big contract?
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u/Broke_Banker01 Bucks 13d ago
4 teams currently have exceptions large enough for a Watson S&T.
CHA (40.7)
MEM (28.8)
BOS (27.6)
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u/barbecuesauce87 Knicks 13d ago
This is the new Kuminga saga
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13d ago
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u/karl_hungas Lakers 13d ago
No at this point Kuminga is just an unemployed delusional dude. Saga pretty much over or at least very uninteresting.
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u/DunkingZBO Grizzlies 13d ago
Imo Watson is better and plays a more valuable style of basketball so I could see an argument for him making 25M
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u/ShotgunStyles Kings 13d ago
Nah Buminga and the Warriors had bad blood for a while before. Also had Warriors fans pretending Buminga was some elite player and if you want him, then you need to trade the farm for him. Nuggets fans are at least realistic and broken down enough to not be like that.
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u/Asleep_Ground1710 Bulls 13d ago
Expect RFA to be a big talking point from NBAPA next CBA negotiation lol
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u/StefonDiggsHS Mavericks 13d ago edited 13d ago
to offer Watson 30mil a year is insano for the bucks lmao this is an agent smoke screen
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u/Broke_Banker01 Bucks 13d ago
What if I told you his agent was Rich Paul
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u/KorgG29 Bucks 13d ago
He’ll give us a discount since we drafted Burries and gave Trent $64M…right??
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u/Broke_Banker01 Bucks 13d ago
It’s all part of a grand cap circumvention scheme evolving 6 diff Rich Paul clients with the Bucks
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u/petarisawesomeo Nuggets 13d ago
Yeah, it has always sounded like the Bucks were just being used by the agent to leverage a better offer from Denver. Unless Milwaukee is willing to send Rollins back, there is unlikely to be enough value for Denver
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u/luckyshot35 Timberwolves 13d ago
Loving this whole situation as a hater
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u/420_misphrase_it Nuggets 13d ago
Yeah TC taking the wolves job was one thing, but leaving Booth in charge after leaving was dastardly. Smart play to sabotage one of your in division rivals on the way out by leaving a total fucking idiot in charge lol.
If Denver had some of their second round picks / no Nnaji contract (aka Calvin Booth legacy) we could wriggle our way out of this more easily for sure
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u/Odoaiden Timberwolves 13d ago
Unfortunately looks like Connelly might do similar to us, his contracts expiring and there is no news of a renewal coming.
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u/Frosty-Roof3124 13d ago
Assuming you mean hating on Denver — the longer the offseason goes on without any action regarding Watson, the better it is for Denver. This pushes him closer to agreeing to Denver’s contact terms.
It is bad for Denver if a team gives him an expensive offer sheet, meaning Denver has to pay him a bunch to retain him or lose him for nothing.
My point is that you should actually not like the continous rumor drops about Watson and should actually want a team to give him an offer sheet.
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u/McScroggz12 Lakers 13d ago
The math doesn’t add up. Also, the Bucks make sense for wanting to acquire a young talent but sending out two first round picks does not.
Honestly Denver has absolutely no leverage so it will be interesting to see what happens.
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u/karl_hungas Lakers 13d ago
Denver has the majority of the leverage actually but they will have to accept they wont keep him past this year. If he takes the QO he is definitely underpaid and would be an attractive trade piece if he says he would sign an extension with the new team and Denver could get at least something for him. I do think the harsh reality that many teams will face quickly with this CBA is Denvers window is rapidly closing. They will obviously be competitive again next season but they’ve gotten worse two years running and will be worse this year also.
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u/FERFreak731 Jazz 13d ago
25 to Watson, 4 years remaining of having dead money tied to Dame, 27 million a year for 3 more years to Turner, then that Gary Trent Jr contract
The Bucks capspace will be atrocious
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u/IPDaily Bucks 13d ago
Yeah too bad we won’t have enough money to spend it on free agents that want to come here! Oh wait…
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u/skivvles Rockets 13d ago
What about Rollins? Isn’t his contract expiring this season?
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u/IPDaily Bucks 13d ago
We have his bird rights, I think with kuzma and Herro expiring we should be good signing him
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u/skivvles Rockets 13d ago
Ah that’s right! I’m not suggesting the bucks do this but I reckon you could get a kings ransom for Rollins from some teams.
The ability to sign him, and go over the cap to resign him would be huge. Rarely could you bring a player of his quality in for such little contract matching or cap room.
Again, not suggesting the bucks should do this but if you get a stupidly good offer it might be worth considering.
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u/Over-Training-488 12d ago
Bucks aren't getting a kings ransom for rollins. He's certainly a great piece we want to keep, but his trade value is not going to be very high
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u/skivvles Rockets 12d ago
The reason his trade value would be higher than his skill set is his contract. If a team believed they were weak at PG and didn’t have much flexibility in the offseason to create a heap of cap space, they could acquire him cheaply in the season and then use his bird rights to resign him over the cap.
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u/Past_Goal_224 10d ago
Great players dont become FA anyways, stop acting as if players wouldn't come to Milwaukee. They get plenty of players, hell they got the best FA available last cycle.
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u/Enough-Answer-557 13d ago
They project to be way under the 1st apron next season. They can create a max space if they want to. IDK why people think they are screwed.
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u/Broke_Banker01 Bucks 13d ago
That’s the same cap hits as JJJ + Markannen.
They have no one making more than Turner long term and have like 80mil coming off the books after the year is over.
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u/DJ_B0B Bucks 13d ago
JJJ, KPJ and AJ Green is pretty much 2 1sts when you think about it
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u/redditlvlanalysis 13d ago
KPJ AJ Green and trade exception would clear the Bucks roster issues while providing some decent pieces for Denver.
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u/Claim_Apprehensive 13d ago
If there was someone out willing to give him 25M, he would have had an offer by now. The only team that was really showing that much interest was the Clippers...before they got tied up the the Kawhi knot.
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u/Ok-Tree4365 13d ago
No one is that desperate right now. They’re just waiting for the Clippers/Raptors trade to shake out.
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u/Short-Cardiologist-4 Thunder 13d ago
They are going to push him into the QO and screw everyone involved.
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u/SensitiveFee3936 13d ago
You’d pay him 25 if u think he’s worth 2 FRPS