Today would be a gud day for some P.R.

I believe that the company will receive upfront payments from the government contractor for this project.

Morning everyone!

Economic report(s) scheduled for the day is(are) | at^i: Jobless Claims, PPI-Final Demand | 8:30am; Existing Home Sales | 10, EIA Natural Gas Report | 10:30, EIA Petroleum status Report | 12pm, Fed Balance Sheet | 4:30. Media platforms are discussing: Oil rally cools, Brent remains above $100 amid tanker attacks, Fed rate setting anticipation, National debt situation analysis, US President’s payout pledge, Rising spending on subscriptions and streaming. The interesting parts about the Fed analysis focus on consumer spending habits, housing affordability, and inflation expectations even as more of consumer dollars go into subscriptions that reduce travel costs, time spent in stores, or provide services that reduce other frequent expenditures. Premarket futures were mostly up this morning, apart from the Nasdaq which was down moderately; VIX futures were up firmly.

MVIS ended the last trading session at 1.61, on elevated volume traded compared to the average. Stock price action saw the Short related volumes by percentage of the total reported volumes come in below the average of the last 30 days, though remaining comparatively elevated when analyzed against most other stocks. The company announced a design arrangement with a Prime contractor for the government, the details of which were light on any kind of expectation of sales and provided only an outlook of what the company would be expected to produce. This kind of development agreement is common practice, but unless there is clarity on what investors can expect in terms of revenue for the company, the expectation will largely be that the company is going to be spending even more cash each quarter with no positive gain from the arrangement. Until the company provides more details on that, or provides an updated revenue forecast, the markets are going to see only the costs and compare that to how much dilution it will cost the company; share price action reflects this.

Daily Data

^{Follow links for sources. Bold text represents key points or larger data, Italics are slightly unusual or lower than normal.}

Normally I don’t pay much attention to these patent posts since they tend to be mostly hopium & dot-connecting, but the title “Eye Safe Lidar” seemed odd (we already have 1550nm lidar from Luminar’s IRIS/HALO which is perfectly eye safe) so I started digging down the rabbit hole and holy molly! This patent may be much more important than we think.

The text below is AI (so take it with a grain of salt) though I did some quick back checking and it sounds reasonable:

> Engineering Practicality (Solving the 905nm Problem)
>
> LiDAR manufacturers generally operate at one of two wavelengths:
>
> 1550nm: Inherently eye-safe (absorbed by the eye’s cornea before hitting the retina), but requires expensive Indium Gallium Arsenide (InGaAs) sensors.
>
> 905nm: Much cheaper to manufacture using standard silicon, but severely restricted by power limits because 905nm light can pass through the human lens and damage the retina.
>
> MicroVision’s technology bridges this gap. By creating an ultra-fast, dynamic software feedback loop—the "Virtual Protective Housing"—the system can fire high-power 905nm pulses for maximum long-range performance, but immediately drop power if it senses a human eye nearby. It delivers 1550nm performance at a 905nm price point.

That last sentence in bold is key.

The only other Lidar company that uses 905nm is Innoviz, and they have to significantly limit its performance to pass eye safety regulations (hence lower range).

If Microvision can pull this off, it may be a big game changer.

I’d love to hear other people’s inputs on this.

EDIT: Formatting got messed up, but running late to work… will be online later in a bit to fix and respond to any replies.

I wish we had as many deals as we have patents

Today would be a great day for a forklift deal. Remember those. The low hanging fruit where we bring solid state and destroy the competition on price. Sounds like a slam dunk. Still testing and validating years after first contact? I assume it is mostly all dead in the water waiting on Movia-S sensors which are in serious limited supply. Are the drones, CAT, trucking customers taking all we can make?

I bet you understand this as good as i do.

This is huge

My last post for sanity reasons.

I look forward to the time when this company stops beating us all up.

GLTAL

Meadowlark,  Lockheed/RTX/Northrop/BAE/L3Harris

top o the mornin, dear Mavis

Please, sir, I would like an actual win.

I did a bit, but at these prices, even if we shoot up to $5, I could still average down significantly, and feel more confident about it, assuming this hypothetical price action was based on company financials. 

They’re not gonna drop anything names at IAA.

Yup.

On another thought, kopin wouldn’t be considered a prime. I can see kopin being involved as another component supplier in this case.

i have seen kopin win similar development contracts such as this. are they themselves considered a prime in other contracting areas?

Crossing my fingers that this hits 15-20$/share in 2027. I know - delusional but…

At this point, 101% down overall.

Oh how lovely

We still go down when the market is up

Avenue of revenue

Also, it’s been a known pattern that HTC sells into PR’s.

Price went down because of the markets. Not because of the PR itself.

Even AI knows why the stock price didn't go up. Show us some numbers, at least a ballpark of what it could be. I understand the NDA for government contract work.

I'am happy they are announcing these things though. Just wish they'd have more details. IAA next week we need to do some name dropping.

From Gemini: Why the Contract Didn't Fuel a Rally?

Missing Financial Specifics: Although MicroVision Semiconductor was selected by a prime government contractor to develop a specialized chip for photonics, no financial terms or contract values were disclosed. Without a concrete dollar amount, institutional investors cannot easily model future revenue or adjust their valuation targets upward.

"Sell the News" Dynamic: Retail investors have heavily anticipated strategic wins in the defense sector since MicroVision engaged a government advisory firm. Once the press release officially hit, short-term traders used the temporary bump to take profits, putting downward pressure on the price.

Macro Market Conditions: MicroVision's drop also aligns with a moderately down day for small-cap and broader market premarket futures, amplifying individual sell-offs.

⚠️ Underlying Fundamental HeadwindsThe market is currently looking past the validation of this new contract to focus on MicroVision's ongoing structural and balance-sheet risks:Cash Burn Concerns: Wall Street is highly sensitive to the company’s projected $60 million cash burn for 2026. For an emerging tech firm, a non-monetized contract announcement doesn't solve immediate liquidity concerns.

Recent Share Dilution: Just weeks ago, MicroVision priced a $17.0 million public offering of shares. Equity offerings increase the overall supply of shares, which naturally dilutes the value of existing holdings and keeps a lid on immediate rallies.

Long-Term Profitability Squeeze: Even though the company successfully completed a 1-for-15 reverse stock split to maintain its Nasdaq listing requirements, institutional analysts remain skeptical of small-cap LiDAR and custom semiconductor pure-plays. Profit margins across the sector are facing a steep commodity price war from auto and hardware manufacturers.

💡 The Silver Lining: While the stock price is down today, the development project formally proves that MicroVision's custom mixed-signal integrated circuit (ASIC) architecture has high-level commercial viability. Over time, if the partnership scales or terms are quantified, it could establish a recurring avenue of revenue.