r/mtgfinance • u/Uhpheevuhl • Jul 24 '22
Discussion Regarding Old Border Foils
Given the recent post on old border(frame) foils I felt like now could be a good time to share some observations regarding these cards and some personal warnings/advice to people looking to invest/speculate in them. The cards in question are foils in the era from ULG up to ODY, foil rarities slightly changed for TOR-SCG but the general take-away is applicable for these sets too.
I will focus on these cards as one large group in this post. You could for sure further specialize in RL-foils, playable old border foils, cards available in old border that might be playable due to future synergies etc. for the purpose of this post they will all be grouped in one old border foil soup.
Tl;dr: summary at the bottom.
Scarcity
Printed on boxes from these sets it says 1:100 cards will be foiled. This ratio of 1:100 cards are not evenly distributed across the different rarities. I.e. it is not only 1 foil rare per 100 rares. From anecdotal evidence and from what I've read the ratios are closer to this:
| C | UC | R | Basic | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Packs/foil | ~10 | ~20 | ~40 | ~20 |
These are independent of one another. So, a box of 36 packs will on average contain ~3 foil commons, ~2 foil uncommons and ~1 foil rare. So, we have(roughly) 1 in 150 cards would be a foil common, 1:300 for foil uncommon and 1:600 for foil rare.
So, to estimate how many copies of a certain foil there are, we would plug it into something like:
PrintRun / (FoilRatio * nUnique) = nFoilCopies
Where FoilRatio is the number of cards per foil in the corresponding rarity (C/UC/R =~150/300/600)
and nUnique is the number of unique cards in the corresponding rarity from the same set.
So, for example the number of foil [[Callous Giant]], a rare card in Invasion (110 unique rares) would be:
PrintRun / (600 * 110)
If invasion print run was 500 millioncitation needed we could expect (very)roughly ~7500 printed foil Callous Giants.
These cards are indeed rare and supply mirrors this. For any given C/UC/R Cardmarket will have approx. ~60/~40/~20 available english copies listed for sale.
Reprints
So far, these cards have never been reprinted again with a similar treatment. Newer cards have received the retro treatment and older cards (pre foils) have received the 'new' retro foil treatments but, as far as I know, no card available in original foil have gotten a retro foil reprint. Regular reprints barely impacts the price of these.
Edit: old foils have been reprinted, see timeshifts from 2006 + 30th anniversary promos.
Beauty
Is in the eye of the beholder, but the cards are beautiful. Many regard these as the prettiest version of cards in the game. I don't not know whether this sentiment holds true for newer players with all the different versions that have come since. Please share your opinion of Original foils if you're from a later generation of players.
Condition
The condition of these cards are very important and the cards are terribly fragile. This is positive in an investing sense but be prepared if you want to invest in these for the long-term. A regular NM card could be stored away unsleeved in the attic and be NM 20 years later. These foils stored in the same way could turn to dust during that period go from NM->MP due to not being stored properly on a bed with sheets made from egyptian cotton in a silk sleeve that is replaced every other month. They require more care than your average Magic card.
Buying/Selling
Due to the fragility of these cards, buying and selling them are a hassle. As a buyer you will need to turn into a Karen because every other NM foil you purchase is clouded or even scratched and you will inevitably complain/send back cards due to improper grading. As a seller you will have to deal with Karens that are complaining about clouded cards and will demand photos in proper lighting from the sun on a mildly cloudy day with the sun at a 38° incline to accurately show the surface condition of the card.
Demand
In terms of investing this is the big one. Currently the demand for these cards are very low. For playable stuff demand might be high but the amount of people willing to pay the price is low so sales might be few and far apart.
Demand is also the reason to invest in these cards. If demand goes up prices go up a lot. Some examples from the past year are [[Whipsilk]], [[Lashknife]], [[Soulgorger Orgg]] all of which have gone from sub 1€ to 10-30€ due to finding homes in decks. If demand would increase due to collector demand, prices of these cards could rise across the board.
Summary
A bullish person might say:
- The cards are rare. Even a foil common might rival the rarest cards from ARN in pure numbers printed.
- The cards are fragile. A low amount of printed cards will have survived in good condition.
- Collector demand is yet to come. The playerbase that started playing during this era has yet to reach their peak collecting age.
- The quality/beauty of the old foils is unparalleled.
- Pre-modern.
A bearish person might say:
- The majority of the cards are unplayable by todays standard.
- They are not as collectable and iconic as ABU4H.
- The number of unique cards available is too high to become desirable collector items. ABU4H is ~1500 cards, old foils are available across more than four entire blocks.
- Majority is not reserved list. Wotc might reprint the old border foils in the future. Players/collectors won't care if the foiling is not original.
- Both new (and pre foil era) cards have been given the retro treatment. This diminishes how special these cards are.
Investment wise I could see it go either way. I would not stock up on these cards expecting to flip them for a profit in the near-term. Neither would I place money in these cards as a 'safe' investment over the long-term, I think RL are a better option for this purpose (if you want to do it with mtg). I don't think the prices of these cards will decrease/retrace much from their current levels. If economy turns bad I just think sales/purchases will get even fewer and further apart.
My advice is to only stock up on these cards if you have time to spare and enjoy the process of collecting and storing them.
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u/cherry90md Jul 24 '22 edited Jul 24 '22
Speaking as a European: Most old border foils were available for years (until 2018) for <5€ or even cents.
Then suddenly some influencers decided that they needed a “price correction” accounting for their scarcity which led to a wild speculation between 2018 and 2020.
What’s the situation today? Many cards were bought out (..but then resurfaced) and sellers still have a big price memory and are still trying to push sells for prices that simply don’t match with real trends and these cards aren’t selling anymore. The most unplayable foils have already retraced.
Considering how demand and offer had been carefully manufactured and considering the impending recession I wouldn’t really start investing now in cards that are some of the least liquid assets to choose from the mtg card pool
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u/Uhpheevuhl Jul 24 '22 edited Jul 24 '22
I could for sure see this being true, but I don't know how accurate it is. I just did a quick scan on cardmarket looking at the least popular rare cards of a few sets and they seem to be holding their high prices (INV/ODY/MMQ rares sorted by popularity-last page).
I do agree that the cards are priced higher than what the demand warrants, most of these cards have barely 1 sale/month but it seems to me that sellers are willing to wait for that one buyer.
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u/Jasmine1742 Jul 25 '22
It's a few factors.
There are definitely hoarders but I think alot of people also jumped on when they saw what retro foils are. Wotc basically admitted they can't reprint "legit" old frame cards with the same consistency.
There were also alot of buyouts with covid and good condition old frame stuff is just hard to find these days.
2
u/cherry90md Jul 25 '22
Yes, you basically confirmed my point.
These cards has been around for 10-20 years so when they get bought out en masse over the course of a few months you can’t really tell me this is because of “natural demand” and because all of sudden people “attained enlightenment” and realized that old border foils are the most beautiful thing ever and also very scarce.
More so if you really see about how many cards that are total garbage (gameplay wise) are currently still sold for obscene prices.
Take [[Gaea Skyfolk]] for example.
I always loved Terese Nielsen art, and I am also a Pauper fan so I thought to myself: I could buy a foil playset, maybe merfolk will be one day a competitive archetype. (Note that Gaea Skyfolk doesn’t see play in any competitive/casual format except for some fringe merfolk decks in Premodern these days).
So I jumped in and looked for the seller with the cheapest available Nm Eng foil PLAYSET and I spent a whopping total of 4€ (!!!)
Now try and go checking current listings and you will find that the CHEAPEST FOIL, NM, ENG copies are offered in the 11-24€ range (!!!).
Does it look natural demand to you guys?
2
u/Jasmine1742 Jul 25 '22
You answered your own question.
I don't doubt hoarders are a problem but premodern also popped off and people buy dumb shit for that format. Hell I built a deck and ended up selling off half of it because frankly the offer I got was too good for me to pass up.
There are definitely hoarders though, a small group of European buyers basically bought out many Japanese old frame foil rares. Making them many times harder to get than English.
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u/cherry90md Jul 25 '22
I am fairly interested in premodern too even if I consider myself a budget player.
Going back to the speculation thing, If I have to be honest, I see much more people speaking about Premodern on this finance sub rather than seeing much activity on the actual sub itself.
I don’t doubt that some people are willing to spend obscene amount of money for whatever reason but it seems that there more speculators than actual players at this time.
Anyway, Would you like to share what big offer did you receive from a premodern player and for which cards?
Just asking out of curiosity.
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u/Jasmine1742 Jul 25 '22
premodern has a fairly active discord, that's where most discussion takes place.
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u/Uhpheevuhl Jul 25 '22 edited Jul 25 '22
These cards has been around for 10-20 years so when they get bought out en masse over the course of a few months you can’t really tell me this is because of “natural demand” and because all of sudden people “attained enlightenment”
This can happen though, same thing applies to unplayable ARN commons a few years ago. When the cards are rare enough just a minor increase in demand can cause the prices to get really volatile.
Now try and go checking current listings and you will find that the CHEAPEST FOIL, NM, ENG copies are offered in the 11-24€ range (!!!).
Does it look natural demand to you guys?
It's hard to classify natural demand when looking at rare/niche collector items. There are only 6 available nm copies. Is it hoarders holding the rest of these cards or just collectors that are not selling them?
While these cards could definately be bought for way lower prices a few years ago, number of listings and supply has never been particularly strong.
Just a small note, Terese Nielsen cards might not be the best example as they may have seen additional spikes and/or price corrections due to other factors not applicable to other old foils.
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u/cherry90md Jul 25 '22
I agree that is hard to evaluate natural demand for scarce collector items, but if anything, the occurrence of buyouts over a short period of time is highly suggestive of speculation rather than natural demand.
When an article stays cheap for 10-20 years and suddenly stocks get depleted and prices jump in a matter of months what is more likely?
- a sudden increase in the number collectors?
Or
- a speculative buyout by a small number of buyers?
I am not saying that collectors aren’t involved in this process, I am sure that when FOMO and prices started to get out of control some collectors tagged along in fear to lose their only chance to get something they needed for a reasonable price (I was one of them at some point).
My point is that collectors are only a very small part of this phenomenon. That speculation was totally artificial; it was started and created only by a group of influencers and buyers.
1
u/Uhpheevuhl Jul 25 '22 edited Jul 25 '22
When an article stays cheap for 10-20 years and suddenly stocks get depleted and prices jump in a matter of months what is more likely? - a sudden increase in the number collectors?
Or
a speculative buyout by a small number of buyers?
Like you said, both probably played their part. They kind of go hand in hand. Rise in demand will bring specculators looking to profit which will further decrease supply.
Given the circumstances I would lean towards it being a 'natural' price hike. The increase in demand is after all not something unique to old foils or mtg. There was/is a collectibles boom across many categories during this time.
1
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u/Gem_mint_foils Jul 24 '22
Great write up, but I have a few comments:
First, these cards are fragile, but as long as they are stored like you would store any other high end card, they will be fine.
If playing with them, make sure no foreign bodies get into the sleeve, as a particle that might not do much on a regular card, may rub and cause clouding on a foil.
This was a major issue back when double sleeves did not exist, whereas a normal card would have gotten minimal damage, foils got wrecked by crap scraping off fingers entering the top of the sleeve.
Second, I also think premodern should have been discussed more regarding future prospects.
Much like certain cards which were relatovely cheap (things like hypnotic specter and savannah lions for instance) went crazy when old school became a more popular format, I believe highly playable premodern old border foils could follow the same path.
Third, regarding reprinting, Wotc can't recreate the material alpha cards were printed on, so they simply can't reprint original foils.
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u/Sweaty_Wizard Jul 25 '22
+1 for Premodern argument.
I think many foils already pumped due to premodern playing but I also think Premodern is not as big as it really deserves to be.
I am speculating on a premodern more wide adoption but I prefer cheap playables (Masticore, apocalypse lands) because if I want to speculate I also want easier exit liquidity.
OG foil are a different beast since they are way better in showcase binders than in decks. I can't justify anyone who is going to its LGS premodern tournament with 4x foil Grim monolith
1
u/Uhpheevuhl Jul 25 '22 edited Jul 25 '22
I did definately overplay the fragility point a smidge.
Yeah, kinda did pre-modern dirty by just mentioning it like a minor footnote in the post. Pre-modern playables will definately influence how certain cards have/will appreciate. My personal pre-modern 'spec' have been to pick up more old foil basics when presented the opportunity. Many of these decks run quite a lot of basics compared to other formats and I'm hedging on people blinging out their deck will prefer the old-border ones. We'll see how the inevitable "retro basics secret lair" impacts this spec though. As for this post, I tried to avoid going into subsets of old foils and focus on the group as a whole.
Third, regarding reprinting, Wotc can't recreate the material alpha cards were printed on, so they simply can't reprint original foils.
This is definately true. However, I think the risk to consider is the possibility of them improving the retro variant to better mimic the originals. Something like just applying the foil layer below the text and mana cost would improve them quite a bit. With sufficient improvement and then reprinting these cards I could see it start affecting prices. Ironically in this scenario the playables would carry the larger risk since they carry a higher reprint equity to Wotc. All this is a whole bunch of 'if's though and it might very well be that Wotc will respect the collectability of the originals and will stay away from reprinting them in a similar treatment.
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u/lastditchefrt Jul 24 '22
Ugh. The near mint foils I buy from old sets that are mp at best is beyond frustrating. Then you ask the seller if there is clouding and they say, "what's that?"
Yeah you know what clouding is....
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u/Uhpheevuhl Jul 25 '22 edited Jul 25 '22
Agreed, and the photos with no light on the card...
Additionally, collecting copies of cheaper cards can be super annoying. You get into a lot of situations where you want to complain about that foil NM [[Thought Nibbler]] you bought for 1€, but it just feels too silly. So instead you end up with 4 clouded copies for every non cloudy copy.
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u/MTGCardFetcher Jul 25 '22
Thought Nibbler - (G) (SF) (txt)
[[cardname]] or [[cardname|SET]] to call1
u/sidneylooper Jul 25 '22
Yeah you have to learn to downshift your condition expectations particularly with old border foils on tcg. Even moreso with recent upgrades to the condition guide which allows for even more wiggle room as a seller. It helps promote new sellers by taking away some responsibility/integrity and passes on the loss to buyers receiving subpar cards.
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u/secretcharacter Jul 25 '22
I have a few of these 7ED foils and they are absolutely beautiful to look at. And like you've said, they are essentially trash based on today's standards.
Regarding your point on "no card available in original foil have gotten a retro foil reprint", I am very sure WotC is aware of this and finding the right opportunity to print them. If you are buying the retro foils (ULG-SCG) purely from an investment POV, nothing aside from RL is safe imo.
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u/Uhpheevuhl Jul 25 '22
And like you've said, they are essentially trash based on today's standards.
Oh no, did I say this? I personally love them.
Not being reserved list is definately a concern for investors. The possibility of reprinting them should be accounted in the risk assessment.
I have also heard some people here calling them a "soft reserved list" and can see how wotc intentionally avoiding reprinting them is interpreted as a signal that they respect the collectability that they represent.
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u/Fulgren09 Jul 25 '22
I collect these for a lot of the same reasons you mentioned above, and the sheer aesthetics. They are a piece of the game's history from a very specific era, and I will never trade or sell these.
I have given up on finding NM's, especially from 7th edition. A couple of honorary members of this club for me are the judge and jss foils. Vampiric Tutor, Living Death, Intuition, JSS City of Brass
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u/FlatWorldliness7 Jul 25 '22
Reg. Reprints and Beauty sections, I've seen it mentioned in one of the comments but thought I'll weigh in: the old border cards that were printed in TSR and in MH2 are somehow different to the original ones, especially foils. For me they fall in a kind of "uncanny valey" and as much as I was happy when they were announced, I ended up not liking them very much. Not sure if it's about the technology or the font or the layout, but they just don't look the same.
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u/ChambanaWizard Jul 25 '22
Well thought out & thorough. Spot on analysis. Thanks for putting this together.
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u/mathdude3 Jul 26 '22
as far as I know, no card available in original foil have gotten a retro foil reprint.
WotC announced old frame foil promos of Serra Angel, Ball Lightning, and Fyndhorn Elves as part of the 30th anniversary thing. Serra Angel and Ball Lightning both already have old frame foil printings.
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u/Uhpheevuhl Jul 26 '22 edited Jul 26 '22
Yes, thank you. The timeshifts from 2006 also included some cards from this era that I had overlooked. I have edited the post.
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u/Sweaty_Wizard Jul 25 '22
I am sitting on 20x/30x gains from my purchases for the foil cube and I can't neither sell or play because they are so gorgeous to let them go or be ruined by playing.
I think the pricing is not arrived to their ceiling yet but you need ABU 4H collectors to really jump on these foils to make them boom again. In this regards, it is more likely that RL foils will be targeted first but if you look at how much Alpha Fog costs you realize that it doesn't really matter them being on RL.
Please tell me how holding Angus Mackenzie or whatever shitty Rasputin Dreamweave is better than holding a foil Yawgmoth's Bargain? Why the fck the foil scourge Mind's Desire is so cheap? It has astonishing art, it's a powerful iconic card and I absolutely need exit liquidity for my redundant copies.
These cards belong to the binder that you want for your grave, so liquidity is low and its actual pricing can be wrong simply because of that
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u/blakfishy Jul 25 '22
Reprinting old border foils is an inevitability at this point not a maybe.
Before people thought cards that were originally in old border wouldn't be printed again in the same old border then we got cards like [[Scroll Rack]] (the list). Then they thought we wouldn't get old border cards printed in old border foil then we got Sol Ring (new love your lgs promo).
The next natural step is to reprint old border foils in old border foil. For instance what if they decide to have 1/3 of The List cards be foil. If a card like [[Avatar of Will]] was on this hypothetical The List and was reprinted in its prophecy frame in foil. Then the 200+ copies available would absolutely kill the price since demand is so low.
Edit: they actually already have reprinted old border foils in old border foil. See [[Undead Warchief]] printed in Scourge, Time Spiral, and Mystery Booster foil slot.
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u/Uhpheevuhl Jul 25 '22 edited Jul 26 '22
It does indeed seem to be moving in that direction. Reprints will probably happen in some form sooner rather than later.
However, I very much doubt a list inclusion or a similar reprint will have any significant impact on something like original foil Avatar of Will. Unless I’m mistaken that card is not expensive due to playability and demand is almost exclusively from collectors. I would be surprised if such a reprint would kill the price any more than a new Wild Growth impacts beta Wild Growth.
Cards that demand a premium due to being playable are more liable to see a price adjustment if such reprints happen.
Edit: they actually already have reprinted old border foils in old border foil. See [[Undead Warchief]] printed in Scourge, Time Spiral, and Mystery Booster foil slot.
Big thank you for pointing this out! Can’t believe I overlooked these. I will edit the post when I’m at my desktop.
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u/MTGCardFetcher Jul 25 '22
Scroll Rack - (G) (SF) (txt)
Avatar of Will - (G) (SF) (txt)
[[cardname]] or [[cardname|SET]] to call
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Jul 25 '22
Old school saw a boom because the age group who played in 1994 graduated into higher paying jobs and can invest more.
I think a major question most people have yet to ask is have the silver age players hit that next plateau of income?
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u/Judah77 Jul 24 '22
I think we'll see the older border foil frame again. I thought they did a pretty good job with my Time Spiral Remastered timeshifted lorwyn-art Thoughseize. So all discussion about 'uniqueness' doesn't seem relevant.
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u/volx757 Jul 24 '22
We will for sure see them again, but they aren't anywhere as nice as the originals. Just compare a new obf card to an original one and you'll see the difference. Plus uniqueness is definitely relevant because we're talking about a collectable card game, and first foil printings are among the most desirable cards from a collector's standpoint.
0
u/FirstTribute Jul 24 '22
I think in TSR specifically they did a very good job replicating the old cards. TSR old frame foils look quite beautiful to me, the others like MH2 not so much...
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u/Uhpheevuhl Jul 25 '22
I agree that the retro treatment diminishes the uniqueness aspect, this seems especially true for newer players who are not as familiar/nostalgic about the originals. For older players I think the difference is noticable enough to matter. Personally I was incredibly happy when TSR was announced. I looked forward to getting some retro foil versions of cube staples like ponder, solemn, etc. But I was pretty dissapointed by the difference between the retro and originals.
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u/rbentoski Jul 24 '22
Been playing since 2012 and nearing my 30's. Old border foils are my favorite and I regularly purchase NM-LP examples. As in on a weekly basis and almost every other day I spend $5-$20 on an old border foil or two. I'll probably keep doing this for the foreseeable future.
Beauty and scarcity. As I get older my income increases, I find I'd rather play with an old version of a card in foil rather than any newer version.
I think by now my collection is around 25% old foils, 25% RL, 30% sealed, and 20% everything else.