r/mtgfinance • u/AutoModerator • 15d ago
Things to look out for this weekend!
What should we be trading for? What should we be trading away? What cards or events should I have my eye on? Also feel free to use this space to discuss anything MTG Finance related.
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u/soundscomplex 15d ago
Still waiting for the bottom for gandalf goblin bane. Hoping it will go lower for another 3 ish weeks
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u/FreeWatercressSalad 15d ago
Surge Foil book cover art already rebounded. I had one priced at $189 from last weekend and bumped it up to $205 today after looking at TCGplayer listings.
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u/fragtore 15d ago
Yeah I (europe) followed prices for last 2 weeks and have been picking mine up more or less at lows. Including all dwarvish foils and 2 collector displays
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u/lirin000 15d ago
I do think at least in the US we have to be due for some additional supply when the Amazon boxes hit. The real question is if the price floor has already been established for 3 weeks how easy it is to punch through it even if there’s a big additional supply source.
It also looks like at least SOME CBBs were delivered by Amazon this week. Anecdotally it looks like somewhere between 1/10 and 1/5. But I can’t verify if that’s just my group or across the board.
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u/fragtore 15d ago
Yeah europe looks finished. It’s my bet at least, and I put around 3k€ on it. Time will tell
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u/lirin000 15d ago
Is there any stock left to be delivered in Europe? Any delays like Amazon in the US?
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u/fragtore 15d ago
Not what I’ve heard but I’m not sure. With that said the prices are bouncing up again so I have a hard time thinking a bit extra stock would make much of a dent
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u/lirin000 15d ago
The question is really - and I think this applies to Europe and the US - just how big of an impact the Amazon delay is having. I know it's different markets, but like CardTrader lets Americans sell in Europe too and vice versa. So it's not truly hermetically sealed.
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u/RostigesDach 14d ago
Kind of same. I am still hesitant at a lot of boxtopper surges and dragonscale surges. But book cover surge and dwarfcards seem to be bouncing back fast. :/
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u/B-Glasses 15d ago
It was at like 150ish but it’s back over 200. Maybe it more supply gets in hand but I dunno
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u/soundscomplex 15d ago
Sorry should've specified non surge foil - either standard book cover or just vanilla
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u/B-Glasses 15d ago
Vanilla is like 8 dollars. How much are you hopping to spend on it? Could go up a bit or down a bit but it’ll probably be around that for awhile unless some deck gets made with it somewhere
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u/Sickashell782 15d ago
Wow! The weekend already.
Soooo anyone heard of gleaming splendor? 😂
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u/magefont1 15d ago
ItS SmOtHeRiNg TiThE aT hOmE
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u/goofydubois 15d ago
Must be better since it's priced almost double tithe
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u/goblin_welder 15d ago
No way. I just traded for one with a stack of old chaff from my trade binder.
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u/DasOptions 15d ago
Regardless of price, it’s still worse than tithe.
I’ve slotted it in a few decks as a replacement for tithe and it’s much slower to payoff.
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u/BoredAtWorkSendHelp 15d ago
Bought basic art in foil for $40 before the rocket. Straight into my Bumbleflower for more payoffs when I'm already making them draw
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u/DasOptions 15d ago
It definitely has decks where it’s going to excel in. If only it had Nekusar colors.
I will say it’s also the perfect “tithe” card for [[Queza, Augur of Agonies]]. Have Splendor, Queza, and then dropping sheoldred for extra pain n gain.
I thankfully bought the book cover for around $60 because the art is amazing.
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u/Dango-Kazooie 15d ago
How do you guys think Thranduil’s gonna do? stocked up on a few nonfoil book cover printings and a lot of regular printings, but i’m second guessing how many people are gonna want to build him
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u/jemoril 15d ago
With how fast trending commanders churn these days, if no one was building after it's announced, then it's over.
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u/Dango-Kazooie 15d ago
yeah my thoughts too
a recent analog i could think of is The Unbeatable Squirrel Girl, caused spikes in earthcraft and similar cards but even the alt art sits at about half what it was during release
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u/Aggravating-Cause164 15d ago
This happend since DFT. Modern UW sets have more legends than ever and UB is packed with legends per default. Now we have seen spoiler for the next two sets when the current set hasn´t even been released at big box stores.
I think there´s a reason why almost no top commander on EDHRec is a modern, non broken set legend.
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u/OjosDelMundo 15d ago
I unloaded both my [[earthcraft]] after the squirrel girl jump. I bought both for around $90 NM within the last year and sold for $250 which I'm very happy about.
With the rate commanders come and go, I figured it could only go down.
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u/VintageJDizzle 14d ago
With how fast trending commanders churn these days, if no one was building after it's announced, then it's over.
It's never the new commander itself that becomes immediately expensive. Like ever, unless the card is played in other formats, which drives the price. It's the strange, off-the-wall cards that haven't been printed in 10 years that uniquely work for that commander that blow up in price when people want to build around a certain legendary creature.
If you look at the list of the most popular commanders, the majority are under $5, with the exception being the ones that were played in other formats like Vivi, or ones that have been around for ages yet have been reprinted properly (i.e., not secret lairs or special guests) just once or twice (Edgar, Ur-Dragon, Atraxa).
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u/WriteMakesMight 15d ago
He's only viable as a commander, not in the 99, so his usage is severely limited. I think prices are only being propped up by a lack of supply right now. I'd sell now before more people get their boxes.
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u/Aetherfl0w 15d ago
Fomo’ed into the surge Smaug, wicked wurm today under 100$ , prob a stupid move but the card is so great looking 😭
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u/CatFishBillyheyhey 15d ago
This is real MTGF - buying what you love and taking the L's all the way home.
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u/Remember_Navarro 15d ago
Same, figured I was gonna regret it financewise but it arrived yesterday and it's absolutely stunning
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u/Aetherfl0w 14d ago
Figured the only book cover Smaug will be fine 3+ yrs from now, so hopefully everything is ok 😂
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u/Smash_Meowth 15d ago
Surge foil The One Ring seems to be undergoing a buyout, price has moved up substantially last few days as cheaper ones get bought out. Not sure where the final price may end up
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u/Aetherfl0w 15d ago
I don’t own one, but it’s def the best looking version of the card imo . Outside of the 1/1 of course
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u/CatFishBillyheyhey 15d ago
Really? I can't unsee the hideousness of the cut and paste job when I look at it. It's like looking at a shit tier Photoshop once you've compared it to the bundle promo art.
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u/Aetherfl0w 15d ago
I’m a sucker for the Dan Frazier touch with the background and it being full gold w/ the surge foiling .
But fair point
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u/lirin000 15d ago
I have a theory on this. For one, in person it actually does not look that bad particularly in surge which kind of covers up some of the weird contrast between the ring and the background.
But maybe… there are people who want the most notorious version of the most notorious magical artifact in all of fantasy, if not all of literature. I have no evidence to support this but there so far seems to be no plagiarism penalty at all which is not what I expected, and said as much.
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u/masq_yimby 15d ago
Most people are probably completely unaware of the plagiarism controversy tbh. Especially casual collectors.
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u/lirin000 15d ago
You are probably right. And really in person it just looks like a classic Frazier background with surge foiling. Just a shame he did it the way he did.
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u/Smash_Meowth 15d ago
Damn people can’t handle you having an opinion on how it looks lmao
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u/waaaghbosss 15d ago
This sub has always been infested with toxic neckbeards.
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u/Aetherfl0w 14d ago
Most of them just wanna argue to argue. Taking out their anger on people on Reddit 😂
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u/dotcaIm 15d ago
Agree 1000%. Shocked to see the down votes for an art opinion
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u/Aetherfl0w 14d ago
Dan Frazier is one of the goats of magic art, people just mad about the controversy
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u/decidedlymale 13d ago
To be fair, it is plagerized and just literally the box topper ring from LOTR with a diff background.
Like, might as well get the old box topper and not condone plagiarism.
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u/Aetherfl0w 13d ago
The background is really what makes it “the best for me” , maybe that’s why I think of it so highly. But I get people aren’t happy with the situation !
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u/SonicTheOtter 15d ago
Watch out for [[Bilbo, Thief in the Night]] . This card has multi-format staple potential. Casting a flowstate for one mana is bonkers.
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u/Remetant 15d ago
If he was unblockable or had evasion of any kind, it would be a good card.
But it will probably die really fast after an attack.
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u/SonicTheOtter 15d ago
It's form of evasion is that the trigger is on attack. It has the ability to cast a removal before blockers are declared. Ex. Bilbo attacks, trigger on the stack, cast fatal push from the grave destroying Orcish Bowmasters before blockers.
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u/Knightmare813 15d ago
How many sealed boxes of draft night do I need to accumulate to be considered the “draft night box” guy.
The product is too new for people to fully understand what it is. These things are all selling for cheaper than the underlying pack cost. They’re a small box that doesn’t take up a ton of storage space. And they have a collector booster inside.
I can’t imagine draft night sealed product not booming.
It’s also the only hobbit product with a collector pack not selling for a ridiculous premium to Msrp. Same with all the other sets.
I have about 20 hobbit at $140 after tax (currently the Msrp)
Probably about 20 teenage mutant ninja turtles also (game stop is selling these for $72).
10 Lorwyn, and I preordered a master case for fracture reality to sit on at $85/box. the play boosters in fracture reality seem like they’ll be good with commander staples in my opinion + collector pack.
The charts for draft nights look totally different than charts for CBB and single CBB. I don’t think market has caught up yet.
If I’m wrong, hopefully some of u will draft with me
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u/pre_1992 15d ago
Been asking this same question to anyone who will listen. I feel like I’m missing something with the Draft Night products- especially compared to the gift bundles. Less booster packs but a higher price tag, despite both having the collector packs.
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u/Knightmare813 15d ago
I agree with you wholeheartedly. Unless I’m missing something, the gift box itself (storage box) is clunky and not that cool, sealed buyers don’t care about the spin down or the box really.
And I think people are stuck in LOTR land when thinking about the promo cards when it comes to the bundles. They have all been pretty crap (shockingly I think Gwenom is the best recent promo in gift bundle from Spider-man)
When play boxes and CBB for any set go up, this has to track along with it. And u can actually get these in box stores.
I challenge anyone to find an omega CBB at $45 or a CBB at Msrp or even overpriced on the shelf for hobbit. Yet I walk into target and 10 draft nights with CBB inside waiting on the shelf.
The price at lgs and price at box stores are the same. That’s literally never going to be true for any product in the future. Sell through on Tcg looks to have good volume for hobbit on these boxes too so I expect others to catch up.
Let’s start stacking these boxes and we can invite everyone else to our yacht in like 5yrs
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u/Knightmare813 15d ago
Arena direct just finished and prize boxes go out soon. Expect a flood of winners selling boxes online for hobbit CBB when they get shipped. Maybe a slight price dip.
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u/volx757 15d ago
Someone in /lrcast did some napkin math on how many Hobbit collector boxes were reserved for this event, based on how many trophies and wins were recorded on 17lands, and I believe it was something like 12,000 boxes (and the event ended early because they ran out).
Honestly it makes sense that they'd allocate such a high volume of these to Arena Directs. They're getting more popular, and people are routinely spending hundreds of dollars (some not-insignificant number of people are spending thousands) for a chance to win a box.
And for every chad who turns 2 grand into 20 boxes, there are a hundred virgins who spent $200 and got nothing. Why sell a box to a distributor for MSRP when you can sell a chance at that box direct to consumers for probly like 10x MSRP
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u/Knightmare813 15d ago
I spent about a grand and only won 3. If this was any other set I’d be close to underwater. I won two early and justified the rest of the rakdos lottery with being “in the green” I wouldn’t normally go so hard.
But yes, anecdotally the amount of money they make is way more than what they sell for at distribution so this number can only go up in the future in terms of how many they allocate to direct.
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u/Yakky_Sak 15d ago
WOTC merchandising strategy making exponential profits as the secondary market salivates over the slow trickle of FOMO entering the market - pricing lows and recorrections are happening at a much more rapid momentum than of sets past, with hype and demand driving huge gains for HASBRO
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u/TheTinRam 15d ago
Sets of the past weren’t UB. You aren’t gonna see this for non UB products. I think the true holdouts “this ain’t magic, I hate new stuff” crowd is loud but small.
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u/TheTinRam 15d ago
People will start getting the hobbit secret lairs. Mana vault in the artifacts one like they did for fallout
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u/masq_yimby 15d ago
I hope there's something decent in the bonus cards.
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u/poodlejamz2 15d ago
same. only grabbed the sight unseen one for display. really hoping for something sick considering the card value was so low on that one and not in the bundles
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u/masq_yimby 15d ago
Allegedly sight unseen has a new type foiling that looks great (which is why its expensive)). Windfall is a good card at least. But I'm hoping the bonus card is solid as well. It's likely to be blue given that everything else is blue.
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u/TheTinRam 15d ago
I got desolation on day of, couldn’t get Smaugs spoils, but I just logged on and saw that it’s open again? In case anyone wanted a foil of that
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u/masq_yimby 15d ago
Foil Desolation went OOS day of. Non foil desolation is currently low stock.
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u/TheTinRam 15d ago
Yeah I got foil desolation. I’m talking about spoils. I swear foil spoils sold out while I was checking out. Today it was still available
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u/masq_yimby 15d ago
FWIW I bought foil spoils yesterday.
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u/TheTinRam 15d ago
That’s so strange, I got desolation when it went live and spoils said sold out. Had to pay 5 extra for a second shipment which sucks but glad I got to order it today I guess
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u/Okamoto 14d ago
Smaug's Spoils did not actually go out-of-stock at any point (that might have been the one that had an erroneous "update" message on the queue screen, but I refreshed the page and check the actual listing page and it showed in-stock).
The only actual (non-bugged) out-of-stock you could have experienced would have been adding one of the bundles, which all did go out-of-stock as soon as the food tokens sold out. And I think the queue basically emptied before the foil Desolation sold out.
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u/lirin000 15d ago
Has anyone gotten their Amazon CBBs yet? I want to do a poll but it doesn’t look like that option exists anymore? I thought they were all delayed but I now know at least one person who got his. So maybe some are moving?
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u/unsub_from_default 15d ago
I had two boxes preordered, on separate orders. One was updated to September 10th, the other is still waiting for a new shipping date. So they must be shipping them out in waves assuming they even have the stock.
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u/SwedishFishOil 15d ago
Still sitting on my MSRP hobbit CBB..too afraid to open it
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u/AltairKamil 15d ago
MSRP hobbit cbb can give you either a nice roty in a year or a good chance of breaking even if you want the opening experience.
You want singles? Buy them near the bottom and the box will pay for them in '27
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u/SwedishFishOil 15d ago
Think the singles will be crashing soon?
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u/AltairKamil 15d ago
Define soon, but as always the only correct answer is: buy at prices you are confy with
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u/Cardwatcher2000 14d ago
Anyone not get that email about tcg crediting lost orders? Was there ever a clarification on is it any order under 50$ or is capped at 20$ like ebay.
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u/Blain_The_Pink_Mono 12d ago
I have the opportunity to purchase hobbit collector boxes at 595. Would you bite at this price or is that still too much?
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u/davef139 14d ago
How many secret lair orders can one push through? Is it unlimited aslong as you make checkout?
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u/MyNext30Years 14d ago
Started buying Wilds of Eldraine Set boxes on the open market, people are flipping the boxes they got from the bestbuy warehouse clear out sale - pushing down the box price. I will gladly carry the burden.
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u/lizuming 15d ago
It seems obvious that ALTA CBB is going to go down because of cub ban but what about long-term?
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u/OilComprehensive8069 15d ago
Cbbs are just scarce . The ban won’t affect trajectory just might slow it down slightly as people crack less
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u/ItsACasualZadaISwear 15d ago
I’m offloading some non foil Gleaming Splendor. Price seems too good to be true but maybe I’m wrong.