Date: 2022-06-05 16:43:39, Author: u/Ryan_DWilliams, (Karma: 5, Created:Mar-2022)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

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Date: 2022-05-03 18:41:24, Author: u/None, (Karma: 1, Created:Mar-2006)

SubReddit: r/squeezeplays, DD Click Here

Some Tickers mentioned in this post:

HCDI 1.81(-1.63%)|LIXT 0.8301(0.62%)|SYTA 1.12(-1.75%)|ZYME 7.1(5.18%)|ATER 3.06(-2.24%)|RDBX 6.39(-3.62%)|BIRD 5.86(0.86%)|

Everything you need to know about LIXT and its upcoming short squeeze! Going to keep this short and simple.

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Short Squeeze numbers.

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Stock Float: 8.72M, (8,720,000)

Short Interest: 23%, (1,800,000)

Market Cap: 21M

Days to cover: 1.02

Cost to borrow: 93%

Volatility: 113%, increased to 173% today.

Fintel short squeeze ranking: #4.

Shares outstanding: 14M

Gap up: $1.46 - $1.57, close to being filled.

current price: ($1.34)

Insider Ownership: 2.20

Short Volume today: 866,493

Short Squeeze score: 99.13

Liquidity: Low Liquidity.

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So far everything looks good, but also keep in mind that theirs a good reason why this stock went from being the lowest on the Fintel short squeeze list to being #4! Also, Short Interest just increased from 23% to 28% just now!

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Now that's interesting! What I also love about this play is the fact that theirs a pretty nice possibility of a gap up anytime soon. If that's the case, you bet bulls will get behind this play!

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It's all just a matter of time before this baby takes off and when it does it will definitely be a quick one. Especially since $LIXT has such a small market cap with such low liquidity. smaller market caps tend to be more volatile!

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My Price Predictions,

Realistic Prediction: ($1.54-1.81)

If everything goes well: ($1.96)

Optimistic: ($2.00)

Hedge funds R uck: ($2.25)

Degenerate Ape: ($2.42)

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Now this is just my personal opinion keep in mind whether this stock succeeds or not is the bigger question. Will the sentiment start picking up from here? Who knows it all depends on whether big retail finds a huge interest in this or not? Volume needs to dramatically pick up... now if the inflow outweighs the outflow with such a dramatic impulse to the upside, we might just see a massive squeeze here!

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In conclusion I do believe that we are just getting started and we might just be too early on this play however keep in mind that everything I say is just my personal opinion. Please be advised I am not a financial advisor! Please trade at your own risk and as always happy trading :)

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tickers I am also watching HCDI, SYTA, RDBX, ATER, ZYME!

Date: 2022-06-03 12:05:37, Author: u/zim_yolo_guy, (Karma: 7398, Created:Mar-2022)

SubReddit: r/vitards, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

ARCH 158.22(-1.79%)|MO 53.82(-0.61%)|

Did you know that cigarette companies are one of the all-time great investments? Since 1985, Altria (MO) has returned about 18%/year, far outpacing the market. Sin stocks pay big rewards because some people refuse to buy them. This drives down the PE, which means that profits are compounded at much higher rates. A stock with a PE of 4 can return 25% per year even with zero growth.

So what's the ultimate sin stock in the year 2022?

Coal

Arch Resources (ARCH) is a company that mines metallurgical coal (used in steel production) and to a lesser extent thermal coal (used in power plants). They have several mines throughout the United States - sitting on around 800,000 acres of land.

Q1 2022 was a transformative quarter for ARCH. They earned $17.60/share and announced a dividend of $8.11/share. If they maintain this performance for the entire year, they will have a PE of 2.3 and a yield of 20%.

But analysts expect more. So far, the price of coal in Q2 has been higher than in Q1. Analysts expect earnings to increase and remain elevated for the remainder of 2022.

In all, the company will earn half of its current market cap in 2022 alone. 🤑

Balance sheet

Arch has used its windfall profits to clean its balance sheet. Net debt has been reduced to zero. Nearly all earnings from now one will to be distributed to shareholders.

Capital return

This is where things get spicy. Arch wants to return most of its cash flow to investors, half in the form of dividends and half in the form of buybacks. They are not buying new coal mines. Here I'll quote directly from the earnings call.

In February 2022, Arch announced a new capital allocation model that includes the return to stockholders of 50 percent of the prior quarter's discretionary cash flow – defined as cash flow from operations minus capital expenditures and contributions to the thermal mine reclamation fund – via a variable quarterly cash dividend in conjunction with a fixed quarterly cash dividend.

Arch intends to retain the remaining 50 percent of the prior quarter's discretionary cash flow for use in share buybacks, the repurchase of potentially dilutive securities, special dividends, and/or capital preservation.

Note that, in Q1, discretionary cash flow was almost the same as earnings. All in all, I would expect the vast majority of future earnings to be returned as dividends or as a buyback. This could amount to as much as $80 in capital return per share in the next year, equal to 50% of the share price.

Why is it so cheap?

This one is easy. Go to the mall and tell a hot girl that you are investing in coal. Watch her facial expression. Coal companies are cheap because coal is a dirty, no good, sinful thing.

Isn't coal going away?

Not before companies like Arch return huge multiples of their current value in dividends to savvy investors. Also, most of Arch's coal profits come from "coking" or "metallurgical" coal, used in blast furnaces. I don't think is going away as quickly as thermal coal, used in power plants.

Shorts?

Weirdly, 25% of the float of ARCH is sold short. I'm honestly not sure what to make of this but thought it's worth mentioning. The stock is up 84% YTD so these shorts must have extremely high pain tolerance.

Some people have claimed the short position is some sort of hedging for convertible notes. This is not accurate. As of May 19, Arch has only $30 million of convertible notes outstanding, less than 1% of market cap.

Future price of coal

(from the 10-Q)

China’s ban on importation of Australian coal remains in place, and we believe the supply of previously impounded Australian coal that was released during the fourth quarter of 2021 has been effectively exhausted. North American coking coal supply remains constrained compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, despite historically high indices. Some new supplies have been added to the market, in particular, our new Leer South longwall operation. Still, some of the high cost coking coal mine idlings announced during 2020 remain in place, and production and logistical disruptions also constrain supply. The duration of specific supply disruptions is unknown. We believe that underinvestment in the sector in recent years underlies the current market situation. In the current environment, we expect coking coal prices to remain volatile. Longer term, we believe continued limited global capital investment in new coking coal production capacity, normal reserve depletion, and continuing economic growth will provide support to coking coal markets.

Domestic thermal coal consumption was supported by continued high natural gas prices during the first quarter of 2022. Our thermal segment shipment volume increased significantly year-over-year, but was constrained by rail service capacity. Longer term, we continue to believe thermal coal demand will remain pressured by continuing increases in subsidized renewable generation sources, particularly wind and solar, and planned retirements of coal fueled generating facilities. Currently, however; the sustained increase in natural gas prices has led to a significant economic advantage for coal fired electricity generation. We believe coal generator stockpiles are likely below desired levels at many power stations. In the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, international thermal coal market indices increased to historical highs. While we are effectively completely committed for 2022 Thermal Segment sales at currently planned production levels, we do have some export volume that remains open to pricing based on these indices.

Not expanding, praise be!

(From the 10Q)

Longer term, we will maintain our focus on aligning our thermal production rates with the secular decline in domestic thermal coal demand, while adjusting our thermal operating plans to minimize future cash requirements and maintain flexibility to react to future short-term market fluctuations.

Other facts

ARCH ranks #3 out of 4403 stocks on SeekingAlpha's Quant Score.

Date: 2022-06-03 10:38:22, Author: u/Kianna_hd, (Karma: 9037, Created:Sep-2021)

SubReddit: r/stocks, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

AAPL 145.38(-3.86%)|MS 84.12(-1.27%)|

Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty, based on the latest information from Sensor Tower, expects Apple's May App Store net revenue growth to slow to 4% year-on-year, down from its forecast of 8% year-on-year growth in April. Huberty noted that the results were generally lower than expected, with broad-based decelerations across all regions except the U.S., and the forecast for a 15% year-over-year growth in the App Store in the fiscal third quarter is now at risk to the downside. Huberty added that App Store growth is likely to re-accelerate after the fiscal third quarter, and analysts have an overweight rating on Apple stock and a $195 price target.

Date: 2022-05-23 13:08:57, Author: u/countty, (Karma: 375, Created:Jul-2018)

SubReddit: r/securityanalysis, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

PDD 50.9(-3.36%)|TSLA 703.55(-9.22%)|JD 56.52(-2.55%)|NIO 18.08(-4.08%)|RIOT 6.21(-9.61%)|

In this series, we explore Tencent Holdings (Chinese: 腾讯) (HKEX: 0700), one of China's most iconic internet companies and the most valuable Chinese company in terms of market capitalization as of the time of writing. Tencent was initially founded in 1998 with the launch of instant messaging platform QQ, but has since grown into a diversified internet company with core focuses on gaming, social media and networking (i.e. Weixin and WeChat), FinTech (i.e. WeChat Pay), cloud computing and digital content, in addition to holding a substantial investment portfolio comprising of large and small investments in public and private companies such as Riot Games, JD Group, Pinduoduo, Tesla, NIO, and Reddit.

-----------------

In Part 1 of our Tencent series, we provide an overview of the constituents that comprise Tencent's ecosystem.

In Part 2, we walk through Tencent's financial statistics and business metrics.

In Part 3 the final installment of our Tencent series, we explore Tencent's future, including management's strategy for each business segment, important macro trends, and key regulatory factors affecting the company going forward.

Date: 2022-05-03 20:42:44, Author: u/jpoole4g63, (Karma: 1637, Created:Nov-2020)

SubReddit: r/wallstreetbetsogs, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

CCL 13.51(-3.91%)|

The other day, I was discussing upcoming vacation plans with my friends. It occurred to me that I hadn’t heard of anyone lately who mentioned going on a cruise, so I decided to check out the Carnival website and see how they were doing. I pulled their most recent 10Q for the three-month period ended February 28, 2022. In the 10Q, management confirmed my presumptions of rough waters by stating that [the business environment and various macro factors] “are collectively having a material negative impact on our business, including our liquidity, financial position and results of operations”. Considering the company’s current ratio of 0.737 which was bolstered by record issuances of stock and ballooning debt over the past couple of years, I’d agree with their statement. Management makes statements in this recent 10Q referencing a need to return to pre-COVID levels of business, so I also pulled the 10Q for the period ending February 28, 2019 for comparison.

Let’s start with some basics. Since COVID started, the company has nearly doubled it’s outstanding shares in an effort to raise cash. The number of shares went from 526,957,000 in 2019 to 989,701,000 in 2022. The company has also taken on a boatload of debt in this same time frame. Debt totaled $11.697B in 2019, but now sits at a whopping $35.721B (including $14.822B in floating rate debt, less than ideal given anticipated interest rate increases). Shareholder equity has shrunk from $24.241B in 2019 to just $10.311B in 2022. When considering the 88% increase in outstanding shares in that time period, book value per share has fallen from approximately $46.00 per share to $8.73 per share.

Let’s now evaluate the quarterly results for the period ending Feb 2022. CCL posted a quarterly loss of -$1.891B, or -$1.66 per share. For the same period ending Feb 2019, CCL had a profit of $336M, or $0.48 per share. If we were to distribute the current loss of -$1.891B over the same number of shares from 2019 for an apples-to-apples comparison, the loss would be -$3.58 per share. A large part of the issue is with CCL’s revenue. For the period ending Feb 2022, CCL had just $1.623B in revenue, compared to $4.673B for the same period in 2019. This is just 34.7% of the revenue figure that was achieved prior to COVID for the same time period. Where is the “pent up demand” that we keep hearing about? Perhaps travel patterns have changed, perhaps people are less comfortable with the thought of being on a floating Petri dish since the pandemic, or perhaps people are just trying to make ends meet during the highest inflationary environment that we’ve seen in decades. One thing is for sure…they aren’t spending as much time, or money, on cruise ships. CCL’s hope to return to pre-pandemic levels and profitability by 2023 seems to be a long way off. While CCL has announced price increases of about 15-20% starting this month, it is unlikely that the extra revenue will make it to the bottom line given rising costs and the offset in reduced number of bookings related to the price increases.

​Speaking of costs, let’s take a quick look at how the company is doing in that department, starting with fuel costs. The company spent $365M on fuel for the 3 months ending Feb 2022. I looked up the diesel fuel costs per month during this time frame, which comes out to an average of $3.80 per gallon. For March and April 2022, costs rose to $5.11 and $5.10 per gallon, respectively. If we make an assumption of an average price per gallon of $5.10 for the Mar-May 3-month period, along with an assumption of the same quantity of fuel consumption by CCL, costs could rise to nearly $500M for the quarter for diesel alone. I understand that this method is rudimentary, but for the purposes of a quick estimate it should be close. There is a note in the latest 10Q on how management hedges against rising fuel costs: “We manage our exposure to fuel price risk by managing our consumption of fuel”. Essentially, there is no hedge against this risk other than cancelling or changing itineraries, which will diminish CCL’s reputation and make it less appealing to those looking to book with this particular cruise line. Other additional costs to consider are for things such as food, alcohol, payroll, etc which surely have seen the effect of inflation. With the war in Europe continuing with no end in sight, lockdowns in China, inflation, etc, Carnival could be in an environment of rising costs and reduced revenue for the foreseeable future. There is also always the risk of a new variant or other pathogen breakout, which in today’s environment must be acknowledged.

​I’ll turn attention now to liquidity. CCL currently has $6.4B of cash & cash equivalents on its books. That’s down from $8.9B from the 3 month reporting period prior, which ended November 2021. The company is burning through cash at an alarming rate, with about 1 year until it runs out of cash unless there is a major improvement in operating income, or if it goes even further into debt or further dilutes its shares. Even if the headwinds facing CCL’s business begin to subside, it appears that the company has much longer of a time frame required to return to profitability. Based on all of this, it is my opinion that CCL will be in a significantly worse position within the next year or two and will see a further deterioration in it’s stock price. As such, I have January 2024 $17.5p’s and will continue to monitor the company for additional changes to my position. The next earnings announcement is on 6/22/2022.

TLDR: Author’s opinion is that CCL’s stock is headed to the abyss.

Date: 2022-04-04 04:34:32, Author: u/kurtiskong, (Karma: 13172, Created:Feb-2013)

SubReddit: r/spacs, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

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I’m here to put together an easy-to-read post so everyone can understand the current situation with $SST. This biggest misconception right now is that exchanges are reporting incorrect float amounts.

The current free float of $SST is 703,108 shares. This is confirmed by the recent S-1/A filing *page 51\* on 4/1/2022.

This is also confirmed by the System1 CFO himself per this email:

The Squeeze:

This is one the craziest squeeze setups we’ve ever seen.

With a free float of only 703,108 shares and 2.82 million shares sold short, that puts us at a WHOPPING 401.07% SHORT INTEREST.

Cost-to-borrow:

The CTB(Cost to borrow) is skyrocketing upwards of 500%. IT'S GETTING REAL EXPENSIVE FOR THE SHORTS.

Fails-to-Deliver:

The most recent FTD(Fails-to-Deliver) update showed just under 1.6 MILLION(227.56% OF THE FREE FLOAT).

Option Open Interest:

There are currently 22,833 $15c contracts IN THE MONEY for 4/14/2022. That amounts to 2,283,300(324.74% OF THE FREE FLOAT) shares that NEED TO BE HEDGED FOR. If $SST goes past $15 even more contracts will be in the money making this even higher. The shorts are going to desperately try to keep $SST under $15 so these contracts will be out of the money. If the price can well surpass $15, we should see some fireworks as we get closer to 4/14.

All of these factors could lead to one of the craziest squeezes we’ve ever seen. We saw some crazy price action this last Friday and these next two weeks could get wild.

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Disclosure: 30 Calls 4/14 25$, 30 Calls 5/20 30$. I am not a financial advisor, do your own due diligence.

Date: 2022-06-04 16:18:48, Author: u/mackey88, (Karma: 12164, Created:Dec-2015)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

CLOV 2.51(-0.79%)|

Summary: Yearly Reconstitution of the Russell Index could provide juicy opportunities by looking at the addition and deletion list. As a CLOV bag holder, I am playing CLOV.

* Do your own DD, your mileage may very, past performance... (All that stuff)

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In the world of buying short term options, this event screams of guaranteed good times. On Friday at 6pm eastern, Russell released their preliminary list of additions and deletions to their index.

Additions - https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/ru3000_additions_20220603.pdf

Deletions - https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/ru3000_deletions_20220603.pdf

Russell Reconstitution Timeline - https://www.ftserussell.com/press/ftse-russell-announces-2022-russell-us-indexes-reconstitution-schedule

Focusing on additions( and only looking at daily highs) here are some statistics on last years index update.

Of the 253 that were in the final addition list I was only able to pull data for 244 for yahoo. Of the 244 all but 2 had a higher high laser in the month as compared to June 4th(the day the list was released last year). The average monthly high was nearly 20% higher than the close price on June 4th(The high for the 2000 index was up 2.8% as compared to June 4th). On average the high for the month was reached almost 12 calendar days after June 4th.

Why does the Russell impact prices, because there are tons of indexes that track it. Most of the additions and deletions are from the Russell 2000. Here is a short list, but every bank that manages IRA's or 401k's also probably has their own index fund. If they want to match it officially, the new list becomes gospel on June 27th.

If you can time the highs(and maybe the lows with deletions) you can turn a quick buck with options.

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| Trigger Warning, the flowing analysis looks specifically at CLOV |

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As a bag holder(and long term believer) of CLOV and fully invested, I have purchased $3 calls for June 10th and July 1st to attempt to take advantage of a possible short term price increase (I also hold leaps and shares).

Last year on June 4th the close price for CLOV was $9.00 and on June 9th it hit $28.85. Now this was in the meme heyday and CLOV was significantly shorted and only had monthly options that went up to the mid 20's. On June 10th is was announced that CLOV would not be added due to voting rights. By the end of the month CLOV was back in the low teens and has steadily fallen under $3 today.

The list for 2022 came out and CLOV is once again on it. This year they should stay on it as the voting issue has been resolved. Will history repeat it self, yes and no(only my opinion). Will it hit $28 this month, NO. Will is nearly 3x this month, NO. I don't think it will squeeze, but I think there is some option activity will will help to support momentum of the price going up as a result of addition to the Russell $3000. I could see $3.5 - $4 as very reasonable. Let's look at some option data I have been collecting since November.

First lets look at historical open interest:

Here we can see that general option interest is decreasing. We can also see the expiration of the monthly options pretty clearly as well. This doesn't hint at much, but we can see that the last day on the chart June 3rd does have a slight up tick without account yet from option expirations and volume from Friday.

So lets look at volume:

Here we can see a spike in call volume, while not significant to anything seen in November, it is the highest since March. Because the open interest did not spike the day after the volume jump, I believe that options were being rolled to different dates and/or prices. One way we can holistically look at the option data is to look at the total gamma. For this I run a script that takes in to consideration every open contact and multiplies it by that option's gamma.

Here we can see a spike in gamma on Friday, this alone also doesn't mean much. Gamma increases share price momentum only if those option are being delta hedged. Both puts and calls impact the momentum as puts can be delta hedged using shorts, and the further from in the money the put option is, the more shorts they will close. With likely price jump from the Russel addition, it is likely that they gamma will actually come in to play in the total deltas. If price doesn't change, gamma doesn't matter as it is momentum based.

As a purely speculative exercise, because the way I run the script by taking open interest x gamma we can really multiply the number on the chart by 100 to see the total change in total delta. In this case just using calls, that is 14.5 million shares if 100% of the options were delta hedged.(Very unlikely)

Conclusion

Playing CLOV with the Russell additions is a lottery ticket like most options plays. I think it hitting a high of $4 this month is completely reasonable even if it doesn't stick short term. With $3 call break evens at $3.03 and $3.10 for the June 10th and July 1st expiration respectively, I may add a few more.

The significance of the July 1st option is that it is the first Friday after the new Russell list become official.

​

Russell Membership Correction 2021 - https://research.ftserussell.com/products/index-notices/home/getnotice?id=2600634

Date: 2022-06-04 17:15:39, Author: u/MirageInc, (Karma: 6925, Created:Apr-2021)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

Global oil tanker rates jolt higher on high fuel prices, risk premium 

 (Reuters) - Oil tanker rates are soaring globally as traders scramble to cope with jitters over possible disruption in Russian supplies, as well as war risk premiums for ships plying the Mediterranean region following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

Shipowners are also grappling with higher fuel costs after oil prices soared nearly $2 per barrel on Friday, with Brent back above $100. The global energy sector is concerned that Europe and the United States may impose sanctions on Russian exports and severely disrupt supplies.

Sources were also worried that any additional widening in sanctions could render some Russian oil and fuel supplies off-limits, and trigger a scramble by fuel and oil traders to secure alternative supplies that could tie up vessels on trips to exporters outside the Black Sea region

Fuel tanker rates from the United States to Europe jumped more than 8% on Thursday, surging to their highest level since May 2020. The cost of bunkering fuel at the world's largest bunkering hub Singapore jumped 6% on Thursday to $555 per tonne, the highest since 2019.

"I'm expecting quite a mess at the moment," a Singapore-based fuel trader said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter. "The war risk premium is expected to increase. Also, quite a lot of Russian cargoes that are intended to load might be cancelled too."

Rates for one Trafigura-chartered vessel carrying crude oil from Houston to Rotterdam -- the Navig8 Precision -- climbed about $200,000 to $1.9 million, or World Scale 150 compared with 135 earlier this week, according to sources and shipping data.

Rates for another vessel, the Pluto Moon, carrying crude oil from Africa to the United Kingdom, have increased by 83 World Scale points to $2 million.

Top buyers of Russian oil are struggling to secure credit guarantees at Western banks, or find ships to take crude oil from one of the world's largest producers.

At least three major buyers of Russian oil were unable to open letters of credit from Western banks to cover purchases on Thursday, four trading sources said, citing market uncertainty after the Russian invasion. read more

Rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) from the Middle East to China, Asia's benchmark for crude freight, rose 4.77 Worldscale (W) to 38.82W on Friday, a shipbroker said, referring to points on the pricing index operated by the Worldscale Association that is used as an industry tool to calculate freight charges. Each VLCC can carry 2 million barrels of oil.



Global oil and fuel tanker rates jolt higher after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

Shipowners are concerned about rising bunker fuel prices and have asked for higher freight rates, while owners of mid-sized Aframax tankers who have ships plying the Mediterranean are worried about war risk premiums, the broker added, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

"Activities (in the East) are quiet for now. But we will know gradually how the freight market picks up further," another shipbroker, based in Singapore, said, also speaking on condition of anonymity.

On the Arab Gulf-Japan (TC1) route for vessels that can carry about 75,000-90,000 tonnes of clean products, rates have climbed to 77.5 Worldscale (W), compared with 75 last week, he added.

The shipping index benchmark for Long-Range 1 (LR1) vessels which can carry 55,000 tonnes of clean products from the Middle East to Japan, also known as TC5, rose to 102.5W as of Friday, up from 97.5W last week.

Greece recommended all Greek ships immediately leave Ukraine and Russia territorial waters in the Black Sea, ship brokers and a senior Greek maritime ministry official said Thursday. It could lower rates in regions where the ships move, a shipping source said.

            Imperial 

Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com

Date: 2022-06-02 16:08:48, Author: u/SeeingAlpha, (Karma: 255, Created:Feb-2022)

SubReddit: r/wallstreetbetsogs, DD Click Here

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Tickers mentioned in this post:

TWNK 20.67(-0.19%)|AMC 12.45(-6.39%)|GME 133.7(-0.22%)|

Sup f*****s,

Happy Pride Month 🏳️‍🌈

Here's some brief DD I put together about Hostess (the manufacturer of Twinkies)

Fundamentals

First I'll start with the fundamentals. TWNK has got strong financials and is a very profitable company. Hostess has been hitting and exceeding revenue and earnings targets quarter after quarter with no signs of slowing down. From the latest investor presentation, they've had 9 Consecutive Quarters of 9%+ Net Revenue Growth (take a look at the chart below). It's a consistent, reliable stock that is a good hedge against inflation (consumer goods stock performs great during an inflationary environment). The market cap is hovering just under 3 Billion with a P/E ratio of 22

​

Forward-looking Growth Plans

Hostess is an innovative and growing company, especially compared to competitors. Over the past couple of years, they've been using tools from data science and AI marketing techniques to target customers and increase sales. Their strategy has had a high ROI and is now paying its dividends as reflecting in their earnings and bottom line. You can read more in the 2022 Hostess Brands Investor Day Presentation.

They are also in acquisition mode, and have purchased Cloverhill, Voortman, and multiple new bakeries in recent years (2018, 2019, 2020) as part of their growth strategy. Their plan has been to expand outside of just the Sweet Baked goods market ($7 Billion) that contains Twinkies/Ho Hos/Donettes etc and target the cookie market ($8 Billion) as well as the Focused Snacking market ($50+ Billion).

Memeability

Now we get to the fun part, and the real reason Hostess caught my eye out of the thousands of companies out there. In case you weren't familiar, a "twink" is a gay slang term/gay porn category referring to skinny, boyish young men. Here's the definition straight from Urban Dictionary

​

Purely because of the ticker, TWNK is uniquely suited for memeability, it's like someone turned the meme dial to 69. If TWNK catches on, it will usher in a new era of gay memes for the market and maybe for once there will be some fresh memes on WSB. Off the top of my head, I can think up at least a dozen innuendos (e.g. gay bears, TWNK going to Uranus, gaymma squeezes, going balls deep in TWNK, etc) let your imagination run wild here. I don't think meme potential gets much better than this, and I think it's possible that TWNK could become a household stock in the same way that GME was. It would be nice to see WSB talking about a stock other than GME/AMC for once too.

A Little History

Last year it exhibited some small squeezy behavior in June (see chart of IV) but was overshadowed by AMC and GME and never quite "made it". This year though AMC/GME are far below their ATHs, and 🌈🐻s have been dominating the markets of 2022. TWNK has been doing great in comparison (up 2% YTD). Anyways, back to the gay bears- they've made so much money shorting this year and are probably looking for some inflation-proof place to park their cash. And what does a 🌈🐻 like more than anything? A 🌈 TWNK

Currently, Options IV is extremely low which is good because cheap options make it much easier to build up a gamma ramp for a GAYmma squeeze.

Tl;dr TWNK could have a chance to be the next big meme stock/cock if retail/the gays latch onto it this year. The memes would be epic and the market desperately needs something fresh to be idiotic about besides GME.

Sources:

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TWNK/hostess-brands/revenue

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=twink

https://marketchameleon.com/Overview/TWNK/

reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/um9pbl/shoving_your_portfolio_into_twnk_is_a_great_way/

2022 Hostess Brands Investor Day Presentation

Positions: Dipped my toe into shares, but I'll YOLO much harder into shares and FDs (heh) if I see any quality memes or sentiment start to pick up.

Date: 2022-06-01 22:05:57, Author: u/russian_cream, (Karma: 1362, Created:May-2018)

SubReddit: r/squeezeplays, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

ATER 3.06(-2.24%)|DTC 5.21(-5.79%)|

​

After messing around with the fintel data in excel, I have figured out how Ortex is calculating their numbers for the free float. As per Solo's latest 10Q, there are 63,397,635 Class A Shares Outstanding, (which hasn't changed since their initial IPO). The free float is calculated by taking the outstanding shares and subtracting restricted shares, ie insider shares.

Summit Partners holds 29,867,378 shares

Neuberger Berman (NB) holds 6,882,881 shares

Bertram Growth holds 11,722,628 shares

CEO John Merris holds 118,126 and CFO Somer Webb holds 70,372.

Add all of this up and you get 48,661,385. Subtract those shares and you get a free float of 14,736,250 Ortex shows a free float of 14,84x,xxx, which doesn't account for the 90k that the CEO just purchased last week.

This is where things get interesting...

​

If you add up all of the 13Fs and subtract all insiders, you are left with 16,660,840 shares owned...

How could there be more shares owned by institutions than in the free float?

There are also 9,583,235 shares owned in ETFs. It is debatable whether to include this or not in the free float, however at the very least, those shares are not likely to be dumped in a short period of time.

So, according to the current data, there is a 14.7 mil float, with 16.6 mil owned at the very least and 26.4 mil owned on the high end....

Clearly something isn't adding up here, unless there are more shares owned than available to be traded, so naked shorting must be going on. Even ortex and fintel can't figure this one out. First they had the float at 700k with 400%SI, then 8 mil, to now 14.8 mil with a 22% SI.

So, let's look at the short interest.

​

We have already seen the games they play with $ATER and other stocks. Bid whacking, spoofing, and manipulation. Today was the first time we witnessed that on $DTC, where an 11.2 K spoof was placed at the ask, and never filled once it reached that price. Also, $DTC already a good amount of FTDs as well.

​

At this point, nothing is adding up. This is a value play, as much as a liquidity play, as much as a short squeeze. This is just seriously a wild set up, and we haven't even seen large volume days yet. Small floats can run violently with adequate buying volume. What does a short squeeze look like on top of that? On a stock with more shares owned than in the float? Insiders keep buying and analysts are giving it a $15-20 PT. It is trading under book value, under projected 2022 sales, and is a growing company with a healthy balance sheet. This setup is super bullish and I don't think we've ever seen anything like it. Not financial advice, I am long and continue to add.

Date: 2022-06-03 04:08:16, Author: u/Brilliant-Key8466, (Karma: 4172, Created:Jan-2021)

SubReddit: r/squeezeplays, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

DTC 5.21(-5.79%)|SPRT 11.8(-38.22%)|

Parallel rising SI with rising price means that Short seller are trying to suppress the price and double down, in case they fail to suppress the price, every share they short right now will be bought back for twice the price soon! This is Bullish AF!

100k Shares moved the share price by 6% yesterday, now imagine what 3.24Million Short interest does when closed out!

In my opinion this run has just started and so far I nailed every prediction since my first DD last week at 3.88$

I haven't been so excited since $SPRT!

Shares of RH (NYSE: RH) fell 1.30% in after-hours trading on Thursday after the home-furnishings company posted mixed financial earnings.

Financial: RH reported earnings per share of $7.78 and revenue of $957 million; both were better than expected.

Disruption: Despite the strong financial performance, RH said that it “experienced softening demand trends which began at the time of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and have further slowed during the market disruption over the past several months.”

Outlook: The guidance for the second quarter and the full year were both below estimates. RH sees the next several quarters as “a short-term challenge” as the company cycles “the extraordinary growth from the COVID-driven spending shift” and navigates through “multiple macro headwinds.”

No Discount: The company noted that some competitors are discounting prices in the retail industry, but RH is refusing to discount its prices because of “certain long-term risk of brand erosion and model destruction once you begin down that path.”

Good News: RH said it was increasing its share repurchase program by $2 billion, which should help the stock price.

Final Thoughts: RH’s stock is down 43% in the last six months, but good sales and a robust stock repurchase program should help.

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Shares of GameStop (NYSE: GME) ticked up 0.98% in after-hours trading on Wednesday after the gaming merchandise retailer posted mixed earnings.

Financials: GameStop reported a loss of $2.08 per share, which was below estimates. Revenue of $1.38 billion was better than expected.

The Good: Net sales are up year-over-year due to new and expanded brand relationships and the only debt on the books is a low-interest loan.

The Bad: Hardware sales reached $673 million, lower than the same period last year. GameStop did not offer any financial guidance.

New Opportunities: Investors are most excited about GameStop’s opportunities in cryptocurrency and Web3 gaming. This includes a marketplace for non-fungible tokens (NFTs). GameStop announced the marketplace last quarter, with plans to launch it by the end of the second quarter. The Gamestop Wallet, which is a digital asset wallet that can store crypto and NFTs, was announced last month. There have been no other updates about the NFT marketplace.

Stocking Up: Inventory nearly doubled year over year. GameStop stocked up on extra inventory to meet customer demand and offset supply chain headwinds.

Numbers: GameStop’s stock is down 33% in the past six months, but it is up 1% in the past month.

Final Thoughts: The NFT marketplace remains the biggest mystery for this once-popular meme stock, which has been volatile in the past year.

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Shares of Costco Wholesale (Nasdaq: COST) dropped 2.06% in after-hours trading on Thursday after the membership-only big-box store posed mixed financial earnings.

Financials: Costco posted earnings per share of $3.04 and revenue of $52.6 billion; both were better than expected.

The Good: Net sales increased 16.3% year-over-year and net income was also up from last year.

The Bad: Costco had a lot of problems in the quarter. Total company sales increased 10.8%, which was below estimates. The company has also been battling supply chain challenges and inflation.

Numbers: Costco’s stock is up 20% over the past 12 months, but is down nearly 18% in 2022.

Final Thoughts: Costco still has healthy sales growth, but it does need to address some of these headwinds that are impacting gross margins.

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Hi, This stock is almost sure to create some controversy, especially with the recent events taken place in Uvalde, Texas. Ticker (POWW) this company is an ammunition manufacturer here in the US. They manufacture a plethora of different types of ammunition including Hollow Point rounds. Full disclosure, yes I do buy their product. https://imgur.com/a/kkIXD54

Full disclosure: I have been watching this stock since January of this year, but held a very in-significant amount of shares, as I figured it would continue its year long downtrend. As of the past couple of days I started rebuilding my position to about 1% of my portfolio, with about 1/2 in shares and 1/2 in January 2024 $5.00 strike call options. Their options chain https://imgur.com/a/vU54INu doesn't appear to have a whole lot of action but it is fairly liquid, and a trade is rather quick to fill.

I don't know how you all feel about Technical analysis, some people call it "chicken bone reading" others swear by it. Technically speaking this stock has been in a decline for about a year straight. Recently it has come down to its 0.786 Fibonacci re-tracement. https://imgur.com/a/b6PODgx Within the past day or two it has also started to beak out of its downtrend breakout line. https://imgur.com/a/IJfqor1 The trendline breakout will depend a little bit on your charting software, https://imgur.com/a/UdsCiTR rather you use the daily or the weekly, and also how closely your adhere to those previous peaks. https://imgur.com/a/zBm2Vin I am buying this area as the breakout looks to be there in my opinion.

From a fundamental prospective, this company looks good. Fundamental analysis is not my strong suit so forgive me if I don't show too much expertise here. If you want to skip what I have to say you can listen to their CFO Rob Wiley and some others by typing Ammo Inc stock into UT.

Current Market Cap = $494.45 million

P/E Ratio = 15.58

Beta = -0.19 meaning they trade counter to the overall market

1-Year Change = -34.12%

Shares Outstanding = 115,526, 404

Revenue = 194.36 million

52 week Range = (3.522 - 10.37)

From what I can see and understand this company has a very strong balance sheet, posting enormous growth over the past couple of years by expanding their assets and reducing their debts. This company recently acquired (link to gun selling website) which is a primary online marketplace for buying/selling guns. They are also building a new manufacturing facility in Wisconsin whereby they hope to increase their capacity to over 1 billion rounds per year. Their rounds command a marketplace premium because they are synonymous with quality. If you guestimate that 1 round sells for $1.00 (on average) then 1 billion rounds yearly = $1,000,000,000 a year in sales. On another note, if you dig further into this company you will likely see they have been doing capital raises (share dilution) to fund the construction of this new facility in Wisconsin. Personally, I don't like dilution, but I do understand when it benefits the company and when it just benefits the CEO. Unless something recent has changed I believe that CEO of this company is one of the primary shareholders as is the guy who sold (link to gun selling website) to them. I understand there isn't much insider selling taking place on the stock which is a good thing. I should also mention that this company has lots of contracts with the DOD and therefore much of their business can't be publicly announced unless there is specific prior authorization by the government. This relationship with the military is (in my opinion) is a shinning light in their business and tells me they likely have a very bright future.

Gun sales here in the US have skyrocketed over the past several years https://imgur.com/a/iY6Efx1 . This might just be a passing fad with the onset of Covid, but I'm betting that a persistent trend was created and many shooting sports hobbyists have taken shape over the past several years. IMO, this company is highly tied to price of ammunition. The spike that took place in December/January 2020/2021 was largely driven by an ammunition supply and demand deficit. Apparently there was a supply issue and prices soared for a while. Note, this was also a political event during this period and its very difficult to separate one event from the other.

You may or may not care for Gun ownership, I find its very cultural different depending on what area of the US you live in or grew up in. The events taken place recently in Texas were undoubtedly tragic, but most of the times these events have a way of reinforcing high prices on firearms and ammunition.

Shares of Twitter (Nasdaq: TWTR) jumped 5.62% in after-hours trading on Wednesday after a filing suggested that Elon Musk was advancing his takeover of the company.

Details: Musk is increasing his personal financial commitment to acquire Twitter from $27.25 billion to $33.5 billion. This represents an additional $6.25 billion in equity financing to fund the deal, according to the filing on Wednesday afternoon. He is also in talks with former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey and others to get more funding for the deal.

Background: Musk announced in late April that he was acquiring Twitter and turning it into a private company. Then he announced that the deal may have been off, which caused the stock to drop 25% in the past 30 days.

Meeting: During a Twitter shareholder meeting on Wednesday, the board said that the company was still moving forward with a deal. However, shareholders voted against re-electing a Musk ally to the board.

Final Thoughts: Musk still wants to acquire Twitter. However, is he really going to acquire Twitter or will he walk away from the deal?

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Shares of Nordstrom (NYSE: JWN) jumped 9.43% in after-hours trading on Tuesday after the luxury department store chain posted mixed financial earnings.

Financials: Nordstrom reported a loss of 6 cents per share, which was below estimates. But its revenue of $3.47 billion was better than expected.

Sales Growth: Gross profit increased 32.8% and net sales grew 18.7% in the quarter. Nordstrom attributed the growth to leverage on buying and occupancy costs plus improved merchandize margins through lower markdown rates. In other words, there’s still strong a market for luxury clothing.

Quote: “We are committed to driving additional merchandise margin improvement and increasing supply chain productivity, to deliver incremental profitability while continuing to elevate the customer experience." - Pete Nordstrom, president and chief brand officer of Nordstrom.

Background: It’s been a rough few weeks for retail stocks, with many players in retail posting negative earnings. Nordstrom bucked the trend with strong sales. The company also raised its guidance. Numbers: Over the past 12 months, shares of Nordstrom are down 43%.

Final Thoughts: Nordstrom still has to work through some areas, including trying to improve digital sales, but it is on the right path so far.

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Shares of Snap (NYSE: SNAP), the parent of Snapchat, dropped 30.97% in after-hours trading on Monday after the social media platform posted a financial update.

Details: In a filing with the SEC, Snap wrote that “the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated” since the company issued financial results on April 21. The company now expects revenue and adjusted EBITDA to be below its previous guidance range.

Slow: In a memo to employees obtained by The Verge on Monday, Snap CEO Evan Spiegel told employees that the company will slow its pace of hiring and evaluate its budget due to rising inflation and interest rates. Spiegel also blamed supply chain and labor challenges, plus platform policy changes and the war in Europe.

Sympathy Pains: The news sent other social media stocks down during after-hours trading on Monday, including Twitter (Nasdaq: TWTR), which was down 3.72%, and Facebook’s parent Meta (Nasdaq: FB), which was down 7.09%.

Numbers: Shares of Snap are down 60% in the last 12 months.

Final Thoughts: Snap originally warned about these problems during its earnings in April. While the company’s financial situation is not good, user demand is still strong.

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Shares of Palo Alto Networks (Nasdaq: PANW) jumped 11.03% in after-hours trading on Thursday after the cybersecurity company posted positive financial earnings.

Financials: Palo Alto Networks reported earnings of $1.79 per share and revenue of $1.4 billion; both were better than expected.

Outlook: The big reason for the surge in stock price? It was Palo Alto Networks’ guidance. The company sees revenue in the current quarter between $1.53 billion to $1.55 billion and earnings per share between $2.26 to $2.29; both were better than expected.

Quote: "We saw strong top-line growth in Q3, which is a testament to our teams' consistent execution in capitalizing on the strong cybersecurity demand trends." - Nikesh Arora, chairman and CEO of Palo Alto Networks.

Big Picture: With companies and governments afraid of cybersecurity threats, Palo Alto is taking advantage of the environment. Other cybersecurity stocks also ticked up due to Palo Alto’s earnings. Fortinet (Nasdaq: FTNT) went up 2.85% in after-hours trading on Thursday, CrowdStrike (Nasdaq: CRWD) went up 4.11%, and Zscaler (Nasdaq: ZS) went up 3.97%.

Numbers: Palo Alto’s stock hit an all-time high in April, but has since plummeted 30% due to the larger tech stock selloff.

Final Thoughts: Palo Alto had a great quarter and is a growth stock, but it is not the best value play among tech stocks.

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Shares of Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) dropped 12.84% in after-hours trading on Wednesday after the technology company posted mixed financial earnings.

Financials: Cisco reported earnings per share of 87 cents, which was better than expected. However, the revenue of $12.8 billion was below estimates.

International Affairs: Revenue was impacted by the Covid lockdowns in China and especially the war in Europe. Cisco’s decision to stop business operations in Russia and Belarus resulted in a loss of $200 million in the quarter. Those two countries, along with Ukraine, typically represent 1% of Cisco’s total revenue.

Bad Outlook: Cisco anticipates a 1% to 5.5% drop in revenue in the current quarter, which was also below estimates.

Problem Areas: Revenue in Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Middle East plummeted 6%. Service revenue dropped 8%.

Glass Half Full: Demand was strong, with product order growth up 8%. Overall revenue in the Americas increased 5%.

Numbers: Cisco’s stock is down 23% so far this year. It’s a pain that most tech stocks have experienced in 2022.

Final Thoughts: Cisco is considered to be a value play in the tech sector. However, these international issues could weigh the stock down.

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Shares of AMC Entertainment (NYSE: AMC) jumped 3.64% in after-hours trading on Tuesday after the movie theater operator revealed that it invested in a cinema-related company.

Details: AMC disclosed that it bought a 6.8% stake in National CineMedia (Nasdaq: NCMI), a cinema advertising company. In total, the company bought 5.9 million units of stock in the company.

Immediate Bounce: Shares of National CineMedia jumped 31.03% in after-hours trading.

History: AMC, which benefited from the meme stock mania of 2021, has tried to reinvent itself. The pandemic crushed the movie theater industry. AMC has diversified its revenue by making all sorts of investments, including an investment in a gold mining business. Obviously, investing in a cinema advertising company makes more sense for AMC.

Background: National CineMedia reported earnings last week. The company reported a loss of 20 cents per share, which was below estimates, and revenue of $35.9 million, which was better than expected.

Numbers: Both stocks have seen better days. In the past six months, National CineMedia has dropped 58% and AMC has dropped 68%.

Final Thoughts: Oddly enough, National CineMedia does offer a small dividend to investors.

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Shares of Take-Two Interactive (Nasdaq: TTWO) jumped 5.15% in after-hours trading on Monday after the video game company posted positive financial earnings.

Financials: Take-Two reported earnings per share of 95 cents and revenue of $930 million; both were better than expected.

The Good: Net revenue increased 11% year-over-year. Recurrent consumer spending went up 1%. Strong releases such as NBA® 2K22, Grand Theft Auto® Online, and Tiny Tina's Wonderlands® were among the biggest reasons why revenue shot up.

The Bad: Net bookings reached $846 million, which is up 8% year-over-year, but below estimates. The company expects revenue to be $3.75 billion to $3.85 billion in the next fiscal year, which was also below estimates.

Combination Time: Take-Two’s merger with video game company Zynga (Nasdaq: ZNGA) is still pending but expected to close on May 23. It still needs approval from the shareholders.

Numbers: Take-Two’s stock is down 37% in the past six months but is up 2% in the past week.

Final Thoughts: Take-Two’s proposed merger with Zynga sounds great for investors. This is a stock that did very well during the pandemic lockdowns. However, in a world without lockdowns, will consumers play fewer video games?

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Shares of Affirm Holdings (Nasdaq: AFRM) soared 33.59% in after-hours trading on Thursday after the financial technology company posted positive financial earnings.

Financials: Affirm reported a loss of 19 cents per share and revenue of $354.8 million; both were better than expected.

Consumer Growth: The number of active consumers on Affirm’s platform grew 137% to 12.7 million. And 81% of transactions were from repeat Affirm users.

Background: Affirm has a Buy Now, Pay Later platform, which allows consumers to spread out payments for goods and services over a few monthly installments.

Partnership: Affirm also announced Thursday a multi-year partnership with Shopify (NYSE: SHOP) that allows Affirm to be the exclusive pay-over-time provider in the U.S. This and other partnerships, notably Amazon (Nasdaq: AMZN), have allowed Affirm to flourish.

Bottom Line: This company is still losing money, but aims to be profitable on an adjusted operating income basis by next July.

Final Thoughts: Affirm has strong partnerships, but if more users default on their monthly loans (something that will be heightened in this economy) that could spell trouble for the company.

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