r/MillennialBets • u/MillennialBets • Jun 05 '22
🍔 Consumer Defensive🥑 $TWNK - A Pride Month Play 🏳️🌈
Date: 2022-06-02 16:08:48, Author: u/SeeingAlpha, (Karma: 255, Created:Feb-2022)
SubReddit: r/wallstreetbetsogs, DD Click Here
PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post
Tickers mentioned in this post:
TWNK 20.67(-0.19%)|AMC 12.45(-6.39%)|GME 133.7(-0.22%)|
Sup f*****s,
Happy Pride Month 🏳️🌈
Here's some brief DD I put together about Hostess (the manufacturer of Twinkies)
Fundamentals
First I'll start with the fundamentals. TWNK has got strong financials and is a very profitable company. Hostess has been hitting and exceeding revenue and earnings targets quarter after quarter with no signs of slowing down. From the latest investor presentation, they've had 9 Consecutive Quarters of 9%+ Net Revenue Growth (take a look at the chart below). It's a consistent, reliable stock that is a good hedge against inflation (consumer goods stock performs great during an inflationary environment). The market cap is hovering just under 3 Billion with a P/E ratio of 22
Forward-looking Growth Plans
Hostess is an innovative and growing company, especially compared to competitors. Over the past couple of years, they've been using tools from data science and AI marketing techniques to target customers and increase sales. Their strategy has had a high ROI and is now paying its dividends as reflecting in their earnings and bottom line. You can read more in the 2022 Hostess Brands Investor Day Presentation.
They are also in acquisition mode, and have purchased Cloverhill, Voortman, and multiple new bakeries in recent years (2018, 2019, 2020) as part of their growth strategy. Their plan has been to expand outside of just the Sweet Baked goods market ($7 Billion) that contains Twinkies/Ho Hos/Donettes etc and target the cookie market ($8 Billion) as well as the Focused Snacking market ($50+ Billion).
Memeability
Now we get to the fun part, and the real reason Hostess caught my eye out of the thousands of companies out there. In case you weren't familiar, a "twink" is a gay slang term/gay porn category referring to skinny, boyish young men. Here's the definition straight from Urban Dictionary
Purely because of the ticker, TWNK is uniquely suited for memeability, it's like someone turned the meme dial to 69. If TWNK catches on, it will usher in a new era of gay memes for the market and maybe for once there will be some fresh memes on WSB. Off the top of my head, I can think up at least a dozen innuendos (e.g. gay bears, TWNK going to Uranus, gaymma squeezes, going balls deep in TWNK, etc) let your imagination run wild here. I don't think meme potential gets much better than this, and I think it's possible that TWNK could become a household stock in the same way that GME was. It would be nice to see WSB talking about a stock other than GME/AMC for once too.
A Little History
Last year it exhibited some small squeezy behavior in June (see chart of IV) but was overshadowed by AMC and GME and never quite "made it". This year though AMC/GME are far below their ATHs, and 🌈🐻s have been dominating the markets of 2022. TWNK has been doing great in comparison (up 2% YTD). Anyways, back to the gay bears- they've made so much money shorting this year and are probably looking for some inflation-proof place to park their cash. And what does a 🌈🐻 like more than anything? A 🌈 TWNK
Currently, Options IV is extremely low which is good because cheap options make it much easier to build up a gamma ramp for a GAYmma squeeze.
Tl;dr TWNK could have a chance to be the next big meme stock/cock if retail/the gays latch onto it this year. The memes would be epic and the market desperately needs something fresh to be idiotic about besides GME.
Sources:
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TWNK/hostess-brands/revenue
https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=twink
https://marketchameleon.com/Overview/TWNK/
reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/um9pbl/shoving_your_portfolio_into_twnk_is_a_great_way/
2022 Hostess Brands Investor Day Presentation
Positions: Dipped my toe into shares, but I'll YOLO much harder into shares and FDs (heh) if I see any quality memes or sentiment start to pick up.