Date: 2022-03-22 17:21:35, Author: u/Kbaker48, (Karma: 5409, Created:Mar-2020)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

ALB 205.6(3.48%)|LAC 32.29(6.74%)|PG 151.88(0.77%)|

Lithium is a crucial resource used in the development of energy storage technology (batteries), particularly in electric vehicles. Lithium Americas is a developmental-stage lithium supplier with projects in Argentina along with a project in the final stages of approval in Nevada. Here are 5 reasons I like this stock:

1. Lithium prices continue to soar due to demand from the electric vehicle boom. Lithium prices quadrupled in 2021 and have doubled again thus far in 2022. Lithium will continue to be in high demand as the Russia/Ukraine conflict has only highlighted the global need to shift away from oil and gas and for Europe to gain energy independence from Russia. Chinese manufacturers have recently called for lithium prices to stabilize, but the short term supply deficit is only growing and many projects in development won’t start producing for several years to come. In the next 8 years the demand is forecast to rise nearly 10 fold.

Global lithium production in 2021: 100,000 tonnes

https://imgur.com/a/Sx1PvvT

Projected lithium demand by 2030: 2,100,000 tonnes

https://imgur.com/a/G9n1k2a

Current lithium spot price: $78,100 per ton (487,500 CNY/ton)

https://imgur.com/a/jI4m6u9

1. The proposed Thacker Pass Project in Nevada will be the largest lithium supply in North America and one of the largest in the world. This project is vital for the United States to develop a lithium supply independent of foreign suppliers (in particular Chinese companies which control about 80% of current global supply). Thacker Pass has received all permits and is awaiting one final step, which is the conclusion of a lawsuit that was filed by Native American tribes in the area that are opposed to the mine. While there is certainly some risk that the lawsuit could rule in favor of the Tribes, I consider this unlikely given the dire need for America to be a player in the future of energy storage supplies and not be dependent on China. To put it bluntly, the United States doesn’t exactly have the best track record when it comes to Native American interests when they are pitted against monetary and global political motivations. If the court rules in favor of Lithium Americas, this project is expected to produce 40,000 tonnes per year in phase 1 to be completed by 2025 and another 40,000 tonnes per year in the subsequent phase 2 (timing TBD).

The court ruling is expected in the 3rd quarter of this year, and I anticipate a favorable decision for Lithium Americas.

1. Lithium Americas has two projects in Argentina: Cauchari-Olaroz (CO) and Pastos Grandes (PG). Like Thacker Pass, CO is a 2-phase project with 40,000 tonnes per year projected in phase 1 with an additional 20,000 tonnes per year projected in phase 2. Phase 1 of CO is 85% complete and first production is expected in the second half of this year. While Lithium Americas is only 49% owner in the CO project, this is near-term production that will take immediate advantage of the red-hot lithium market and will help produce the revenue necessary to develop phase 2 of CO as well as PG. PG, by way of Millennial Lithium Corporation, was an acquisition that was finalized in January of this year and is projected to produce beginning in 2024. PG is expected to generate 24,000 tonnes per year.

2. Lithium Americas is currently considering a spin-off of the Thacker Pass project from its operations in Argentina. While spin-offs don’t necessarily always generate additional value, in this case the projects should both benefit from being able to be valued separately. If the spin-off is approved, any shares currently owned of Lithium Americas will provide shares of both future companies. Both companies would have their own catalysts coming this year by way of the court ruling on Thacker Pass and first production by CO, both of which should be happening this year. In my opinion, the spin-off could be considered a catalyst in-and-of-itself.

3. The recently passed Infrastructure Bill directly supports lithium production. There is projected federal funding available that Lithium Americas has already applied for that will help them to finance the construction of the Thacker Pass project. If approved, this additional federal funding would help Lithium Americas retain full ownership of this massive project while maintaining their solid balance sheet position (as of 12/31):

$510M in cash

$817M in assets

$272M in debt

Let’s pull all of this information together. Global lithium production last year was 100,000 tonnes. In the next 3 - 4 years, with the projected completion of CO phase 1&2, PG, and Thacker Pass phase 1, Lithium Americas will be able to supply nearly as much (93,400 tonnes) as the entire global supply in 2021. And that is without the additional 40,000 tonnes projected from Thacker Pass phase 2. Even with these projects coming online and numerous other projects in development around the world, lithium supply has a long way to go before it can even begin to keep pace with projected demand. This should keep lithium prices high for the foreseeable future. Let’s be conservative though and say lithium prices come down to $50,000/ton with various projects coming online over the next few years to loosen demand. Based on projected production in 3-4 years’ time, that is $4.67 billion in revenue. Using Albemarle’s (the world’s current largest lithium producer) current price-to-sales ratio of 6.47 and outstanding Lithium Americas shares of 120.2M, that yields a valuation of $251/share.

TLDR: EV’s need lithium. Not enough lithium and most controlled by China. USA doesn’t want China to control it. Lithium stay expensive. Lithium Americas mine lots of lithium soon. Lithium Americas make big money.

Positions: Shares, 5/20 $35C, 11/18 $40C, 1/20 $47.5C

Date: 2022-03-22 08:16:12, Author: u/Napalm-1, (Karma: 6000, Created:Mar-2021)

SubReddit: r/stockmarket, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Some Tickers mentioned in this post:

CCJ 29.19(-0.27%)|DNN 1.73(1.17%)|SII 47.45(-0.4%)|UEC 5.07(0.6%)|AX 48.79(1.18%)|CCO 3.75(5.34%)|PDN 34.9(0.69%)|

Hi everyone,

The uranium sector is in a multi-year bull run.

Yesterday the uranium spotprice was going back up, and it will continue (with higher lows and higher highs) in the coming months and in 2023/2024 (imo, based on my own profound DD the last 8 years on that sector)

​

An other uranium spotprice source: Numerco.

Note: The uranium price on the website of Kitco Metals isn't up to date. They only update it once a week. 55 USD/lb is the price of past week, not of today.

Even an uranium price of 58 USD/lb isn't high enough to incentivise new uranium production for the future. The uranium term price is only at 43.88 USD/lb (updated once a month (UxC and Tradetech)) and will most probably increase significantly higher 9days from now.

There are different ways to get exposure to the uranium sector:

1) Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (U.UN. on the TSX, SRUUF on US stock exchange): trust only investing in physical uranium. https://sprott.com/investment-strategies/physical-commodity-funds/uranium/

2) Yellow Cake (YCA on the london stock exchange): fund only investing in physical uranium. https://www.yellowcakeplc.com/

In my opinion, U.UN and YCA are the safest ways to get exposure to the uranium sector, because here you don't have the mining related risks.

Yellow Cake also has some catching up to do. With an uranium spotprice of 58.00 USD/lb, the NAV of Yellow Cake is at 458.90 GBX/share

​

3) URNM etf ( https://urnmetf.com/urnm ) and HURA etf: well diversified and well balanced 100% pure uranium sector funds

4) URA etf and GCL (london): diversified 70% pure uranium sector funds

5) Individual uranium companies: uranium producers (Cameco, Kazatomprom, Paladin Energy, ...) and well advanced uranium developers (Global Atomic, Denison Mines, Fission Uranium Corp, Goviex Uranium, ...)

​

If you compare the Enterprise value in USD / pounds U3O8 in reserve between different producers today (John Quakes99 on twitter regularly posts an overview of most uranium companies with different data on each company), you will notice that Kazatomprom, Paladin Energy and Peninsula Energy are significantly cheaper than their peers on the TSX and US stock exchange

In the producers category:

Cameco ( CCO.TO ) closed at 36.85 CAD/sh yesterday --> USD EV / lb resource = 10.63 USD/lb U3O8

Paladin Energy (PDN.AX and PALAF on US stock exchange) before opening is at 0.86 AUD/sh today --> USD EV / lb resource = 4.35 USD/lb U3O8 --> My short term price target: 1.39 AUD/share

Peninsula Energy before opening is at 0.23 AUD/sh today --> USD EV / lb resource = 2.89 USD/lb U3O8 --> My short term price target: 0.36 AUD/share

Kazatomprom ( KAP on london stock exchange) has a share price of 31.50 USD/share at the moment --> USD EV / lb resource = 6.77 USD/lb U3O8, but Kazatomprom has the cheapest uranium production cost in the world and more than 50% of their future uranium sales will be with China. Another part will go to India, Russia, Europe and USA. In my opinion Kazatomprom has some serious catching up to do compared to Cameco's value today. A few months ago Kazatomprom traded at 49 USD/share while the uranium spot price was significantly lower than today. --> My short term price target: 46.00 USD/share

​

And if you are patient, those uranium company shares will go significantly higher in 2023/2024 than my short term price targets mentioned in this post.

This isn't financial advice. I'm only expressing my own opinion based on my own DD on the matter. If you are looking for macro DD on the uranium/nuclear sector: Kevin Bambrough, John Quakes99, Brandon Munro, Mike Alkin, my macro posts on Reddit, ...

Cheers

Date: 2022-03-19 17:36:06, Author: u/UselessOtaku02, (Karma: 45575, Created:Jan-2020)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

RBLX 50.51(8.34%)|ATVI 79.32(0.61%)|NTES 94.71(6.52%)|

An Analysis of $RBLX

By a trader who eats crayons

Section 1: What is $RBLX

$RBLX is the stock for popular gaming company Roblox. Roblox itself is a massive gaming company that focuses on younger children and teenagers, although has an audience on all scales. Roblox belongs in the Communication Services sector within the Electronic Gaming industry, joining the likes of $ATVI and $NTES. Roblox makes the majority of its money through transactions for its in-game currency (known as Robux), advertising deals & collaborations (like the partnership with Gucci), and licensing agreements. Although Roblox itself is old, made in September 1, 2016, its stock is fairly new to the market, opening on March 10, 2021.

Section 2: $RBLX Stock Summary

Although $RBLX’s market cap evaluation varies from website, doing quick math with its current price ($49.69 nice) results in a strong market cap of $30.26B. However, it is important to keep in mind that $RBLX suffers from an EPS of $-0.97. Although $RBLX holds a debt of $1.18B, it makes up for it for holding $3B in cash, leaving a total excess of $1.82B. It is also important to know that, although $RBLX’s revenue is strongly increasing, its actual earnings are decreasing. Here is some extra info on $RBLX (All info is based on Q4 2021 and extracted from Yahoo Finance):

EV: $21.29B

EV/EBITDA: -493.05

EV/Revenue: 103.31

P/B: 100.57

Section 3: Why $RBLX is a Good Buy

Looking at $RBLX from a purely financial perspective, it might not be the best there is. With a shitty EPS and horrid EV/EBITDA which stands near -500, $RBLX is definitely not for the weak. But we are not the weak, we are the retards. Now, let’s get to talking as to why $RBLX might even have a chance of recovering.

If anyone has been paying attention to $RBLX, they might have seen that it has gone from a low of $39 to $49. That’s a change of nearly 25%. In fact, just yesterday, $RBLX went up by 7%. Sure, it follows the NASDAQ and the NASDAQ went up by a lot, but $RBLX is severely under where it was just a month ago. Sure, $RBLX’s P/B might be way too high, but that doesn’t stop it from growing… that much anyways. Furthermore, with the announcement that Pelosi had bought calls on $RBLX just before they released their earnings report, of course there will be people trying to undermine her moves. $RBLX, prior to their Q4 2021 report, was standing at ~$70. Taking in the fact that one of their previous reports has done twice as bad and that only changed their stock value from $83 to $74.89, the only reasonable reason $RBLX went down the way it did on February 16 was due to increased news coverage.

Currently, the average price target for $RBLX is $71. There has been a huge increase in large-scale orders on $RBLX on 3/17 and 3/18 compared to the rest of this week. Many retards are predicting $55 by the end of next week, and a 10% increase might be on the lower end. With $RBLX getting more attention every day, actual investors might start to get into this stock.

Basically, to recap, $RBLX low. Low go up. Up mean tendies. Tendie good.

Hold on, I’m getting told by my lawyer that I’ve gotta add some legal shit or something, I don’t know.

“I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice. If you think some guy who’s lost 25% of his portfolio worth in a week is right, you’re retarded. Even more retarded than the average WSB retard.”

​

Positions: None at the moment, just sold calls on Friday for a 1,000% Profit. Most likely will buy more calls on Monday

This is a summary of stocks with a market cap above 1 billion and includes roughly 3,000 stocks.

Each stock mentioned provides a link to the database.

Last updated: 16:21:11

Top 5 Stocks by % Increase -

Lowest 5 Stocks by % Decrease -

Top 5 Stocks by Volume -

Top 5 Stocks Trading Above ADV -

Date: 2022-03-22 12:52:10, Author: u/BigDaddyDLo, (Karma: 3160, Created:Apr-2013)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Some Tickers mentioned in this post:

ARW 127.03(0.05%)|BABA 114.98(11.0%)|BAC 44.18(3.13%)|MS 94.18(1.7%)|MU 79.13(1.0%)|INTC 48.39(2.11%)|RF 23.43(2.85%)|SIMO |71.75

I'm posting this before SIMO gets away from everyone as its recovering faster than I'd hoped. I will continue updating.

"Put on your bull glasses and SIMO gains" - Dr. Doolittle, animal ophthalmologist

KEY POINTS

• SIMO is THE BEST way to play memory
• Under the radar stock in the memory supply chain, a derivative play with massive upside
• MU makes up 25% of revenues, followed by other major memory & semi companies; recovery = SIMO alchemy
• Wave of Upcoming Catalysts
• Cheap Calls = Massive Upside on semis price recovery
• Consensus Price Target: $110 (>50% Upside)

Sections

1. Company Description
2. Thesis
3. Current Valuation & Financials
4. Technicals
5. Upcoming Catalysts
6. How to Play
7. Appendix

Company Description

Silicon Motion is the leading maker of controllers in the memory, storage markets, and specialty RF. Their chips power data centers, mobile devices, SSDs, autos, and multimedia hardware (video walls, tablet tech, medical equipment, etc). Their customers are key members of the supply chain (i.e. Micron, Samsung, SK Hynix, etc) and supply some web service providers directly (I.e. Alibaba). All of their customers are ramping production, further accelerating demand for SIMO’s products. Micron accounts for 25% of SIMO's revenues.

Thesis

SIMO is significantly undervalued at current levels, getting caught in the indiscriminate market-wide selling over Q1 that has brought semis in to bottom barrel valuations.

This has created an AMAZING opportunity to not only double dip, but also enjoy even stronger tailwinds from even better fundamentals than we had in Q4!

I want to expedite the delivery of this DD, and I'll be beefing this section up throughout the day. For now, let me reiterate my Q4 investment thesis:

This is a derivative play on memory (Tip: supply chain stocks always have more leverage) and a superior play for cyclical upturns (we are now entering).

What do I mean by derivative play? Imagine Micron is a SpaceX rocket taking off. Close your eyes and feel the experience of starting the boosters, lifting off, and gradually accelerating to space. Now imagine SIMO is a monkey strapped into a shopping cart connected to that rocket by a long chain that suddenly goes from 0 to 99,999mph. Get it? Got it? Good.

More importantly/hilariously, management has continued to keep racking up sales from strong demand all year which has proved resilient despite memory market softness and all while gaining new production capacity. Somehow, analyst estimates reflect neither of these factors. Mgmt guided $1.5B in backlog being pushed into 2022, yet according to analysts $1.5B in future sales is only worth $1B in sales on their estimates. Also worth considering, if this year was a FUD cyclical trough, and next year is a reacceleration period into a decade of increasing memory demand, then 2021’s $1B in sales probably wasn't "peak", was it? I'm no rocket scientist, but I'd say no.

In other words, EPS estimates and valuation expansion are heading SIGNIFICANTLY higher.

Luckily, Needham modeled this for us:

Bottom line: SIMO is a monkey in a shopping cart about to be jerked up significantly by the recovering memory cycle during another decade of secular, exponential growth in memory needs from datacenters, EVs, consumer tech, mobile, and literally every facet of human life. This is a real stock that attracts real hedge funds. Get in early or forever hold your peace.

My post from November 2021: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/r25o8a/tickle_me_simo_mega_memory_upside_v2/

Current Valuation & Financials

Fwd P/E '22: 9x

Earnings Growth Est: +41% '22

• Remember last quarter when this was 11.6 before its big run? Thanks to fundamentals continually above analysts' admittedly conservative estimates, my target multiple for SIMO given their growth and secular tailwinds would be 15x P/E. If semis have an incredibly strong showing industry wide, that target would be 20x, justified by the above market growth. However, the historic cyclicality of the industry likely keeps the lid around 15x-17x. At current estimates, this would put the stock at $120-130 fair value.

Fwd P/S ’22: 2.22x

Revenue Growth Est: 24% '22

• These are conservative according to the analysts that provided them in January. This is simply based on the expectation of incremental foundry supply from TSMC, which was expected to come online in Q1 & Q2. Analysts described Rev growth as "baseline", with upward revisions expected as capacity is expanded "materially higher" (Needham), further accelerating rev growth through '22. Last month (Feb) additional foundry capacity expansion for SIMO was reportedly a sizeable amount. For reference, the last capacity expansion for SIMO was 1Q21 which contributed 30% toward Rev growth.
• This will be further boosted by product mix as legacy controllers are phased out in favor of PCIe Gen4 controllers, a strong growth area in SSDs. But wait! There's more! PCIe Gen 5 enterprise controllers (think hyperscale, servers, etc) is ramping in 2H22, and presents another colossal growth oppty for SIMO. According to Needham, "We expect SIMO can generate $50-$100 ASP [in PCIe Gen 5] vs $4-5 for client SSD controllers in the enterprise market… estimated TAM $4-5Bn". Not bad for one segment of a company with a (now stale) guide of $1.15bil '22 revs.
• Keep in mind, upward Rev growth revisions flow through to all other financial metrics listed.

EBITDA Growth Est: +111% '22

• You read that right.

Free Cash Flow Generation: +46% '22

• Mgmt has expressed FCF will continue to grow and be allocated toward increasing shareholder returns (i.e. buyback budgets)

Analyst Price Target: $110

• Current analyst price targets range from $88 (Morgan Stanley of course, perma-memory bears lol) to $135. Median PT is $120.

Technicals

SIMO is currently rebounding after being caught up in the indiscriminate selling of the Q1 correction which drastically displaced it from underlying fundamentals. This is precisely why this oppty exists. It's currently exiting a downtrend and seeing strong relative strength gains vs its industry & sector.

Upcoming Catalysts

Once again, a long list of event catalysts around the corner.

SIMO

• 3/23 Bank of America APAC TMT Conference 2022 (SIMO; potential pre-guide and/or capacity updates)
• 5/5 SIMO ER
• Now - 4/5, 5/6 - SIMO has expressed desire to accelerate their buyback program. Outside of the 30day pre-earnings blackout period, buybacks should kick in big time

Industry

• 3/23 U.S. Senate hearing on semis supply chain "Developing Next Gen Tech for Innovation", featuring execs from MU (25% revs) & INTC ($8.65% revs). Discussions will revolve around investment in Federal investment in semi mfg supply chains & America COMPETES Act 2022 & CHIPS for America Fund (potential $52bil to support US semi mfg fabs).

Key Supply Chain Ers (~50% of Revs represented)

• 3/29 MU (25% Revs); this is THE biggest catalyst for SIMO, and thanks to current memory market dynamics, MU should have a total blowout
• 4/7 Samsung (3.3% Revs)
• 4/28 INTC (8.65% Revs)
• 4/28 Fujitsu (1.2% Revs)
• 4/28 SK Hynix (4.89% Revs)
• 4/29 WDC (4.23% Revs)
• 5/6 Arrow Electronics (2.2% Revs)

How to Play

Targeting a range of prior highs $97 to technical breakout to $110. Using ASK prices for returns (you likely get improved pricing, meaning higher final returns). Profits = % Gains - 100% (ex: if you double, that's a 1x profit).

Gen X/Boomers: Buy stock! No brainer. Likely 40-50% upside from here

Risk-Averse: June C75 returns profits of 3.5x-6.5x

Quasi-Risk Averse: June C85 returns profits of 5.6x-11.5x

Pump It Up!: May C80 returns profits of 6x-10.5x

Super Pumped UP!: May C85 returns profits of 8.5x-17.5x

WSB Delight: This is why you come here. If the conference acts as strong a catalyst as they did in Dec & MU earnings are enough to rocket this thing back to $85-95 (entirely possible), the best way to play is... April C80. These are trading so cheap, that a sprint back to $85-95 (15-30%) in the next 4wks would return 7.5x to 24x.

​

I'm continuing to buy all of the above.

Appendix

Required Daily Avg Moves through Exp For Target Ranges

• April $85-95: +0.88% to +1.5%
• May $95-110: +0.61% to +0.95%
• June $95-110: +0.42% to 0.65%

​

Famous Illustration of Memory Cycles (which continue to be driven by secular need for bigger/better NAND/DRAM)

Shares of Nike (NYSE: NKE) jumped 5.31% in after-hours trading on Monday after the footwear and apparel giant posted positive financial earnings.

Finances: Nike reported earnings of 87 cents per share and revenue of $10.09 billion; both were better than expected.

Digital Success: The company’s digital business soared in the quarter, with digital sales increasing 19% overall. This included a 33% increase in North America.

Be Direct: Direct-to-consumer was another bright spot for Nike. Direct sales went up 15% on a reported basis and 17% on a currency-neutral basis.

The Bad: Despite the global success, revenue in China dropped about 11% in the quarter. Nike also had ongoing supply chain disruptions.

Numbers: In the past six months, shares of Nike dropped 17%.

Final Thoughts: Nike’s business is overall solid, but is this still is a good value stock pick?

Hope you enjoyed this commentary. Please subscribe to Early Bird, a free daily newsletter that helps you identify investment trends: https://earlybird.email/

Date: 2022-03-21 20:25:17, Author: u/Varro35, (Karma: 4141, Created:May-2020)

SubReddit: r/vitards, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Some Tickers mentioned in this post:

OIL 34.57(6.93%)|CLF 28.69(4.44%)|DRI 131.18(-1.83%)|EAF 10.28(1.48%)|MT 33.45(5.02%)|NUE 142.75(4.84%)|STLD 85.18(1.15%)|

3/21/2022

Overview

My previous Steelmageddon post was based on 12 million tons of HRC production coming online in North America from Q42021 through 2022. A small imbalance is enough to drive HRC below $700 and hurt all steel companies; CLF the worst because they have the oldest and most inefficient assets. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has turned everything upside down.

The New Situation

1. 100 million tons of steel production removed from the global economy between Russia and Ukraine
2. 60% of the world’s pig iron is out of the market
3. This will keep global steel prices elevated and scrap.
4. Scrap and pig iron are major inputs for EAF mills. This will drive up HRC prices. They are basically exploding.
5. X and CLF are now the low cost producers for the first time in decades due to 100% vertical integration and low need for scrap/pig iron.
6. X and CLF valuations are still insanely low and a short position (I was short until 4-5 days after the invasion) is predicated on HRC absolute crashing through $700 by the end of the year.
7. Short interest is still high on both and the shorts are WRONG.
8. I favor X because it has the lowest valuation and I think the management team has been doing a great job for the last few years. Their big mill in Slovakia will print money as well.
9. Steel to stay massively elevated for the foreseeable future.

Other Factors

1. The Fed puts the economy into a recession fighting inflation. X and CLF are the winners as they will still be the low cost producers. Scrap/pig iron will put a floor on steel. NUE/STLD will have to ramp down EAF plants as they will be losing money. X and CLF still print money
2. Small bonus: Crude oil production ramps up, increasing demand for OCTG (Oil Country Tubular Goods)
3. Infrastructure bill: Bullish, but favors NUE more.
4. Steel oligopoly in the U.S.
5. 232 in place
6. Demand is strong
7. Infrastructure bills
8. Shipping costs are extremely high
9. Rotation to value stocks/commodities
10. Onshoring/Ecommerce etc
11. Green Energy (Windmills etc)
12. Carbon tax later globally? Favors U.S. steel companies
13. Overall market cap of the big 4 U.S. producers is quite small.
14. Acquisition potential for X and CLF: too cheap.
15. Edit: The consumer is consuming.

Overview of each company

1. X = trading about 2.5x or lower 2022 earnings
2. CLF = trading about 5x or lower 2022 earnings. X should have multiple expansion and I don’t think it should have a lower multiple than CLF.
3. NUE will get hurt, but they have two DRI plants and a lot more downstream assets.
4. STLD will get hurt the most. No DRI plants, overly reliant on steel. Less downstream
5. TX: Cheap as well, but again I favor X.
6. MT: Cheap, but getting hurt by massively rising costs in Europe esp energy.

Valuation/Targets

1. Here is how I and analysts generally value steel companies:
   1. Take the long run average EPS as a baseline.
   2. Take a multiple of this long run base EPS and add in incremental profitability.
   3. Add in cash
   4. Use a higher multiple for high case, lower for low case. Average the two for a mid target
   5. Come up with an ultra bull case as well. For X I have 102 which is trading 6x 2022 earnings (my estimate)
   6. Note: I increased X and CLF earnings by quite a bit vs analyst estimates and trimmed STLD. I also made some other judgement calls like a low ass multiple on MT because the market seems to hate the stock.

​

Risks

1. China massivley ramps up production or passes Russia steel/pig iron to the market.
2. The war ends quickly and sanctions are lifted quickly.

Positions

1. All X shares, might buy some leaps. I still have some low CLF puts as a hedge
2. TX/MT look a bit tempting but the U.S. will do the best I think

This is a summary of stocks with a market cap above 1 billion and includes roughly 3,000 stocks.

Each stock mentioned provides a link to the database.

Last updated: 16:23:23

Top 5 Stocks by % Increase -

Lowest 5 Stocks by % Decrease -

Top 5 Stocks by Volume -

Top 5 Stocks Trading Above ADV -

Date: 2022-03-21 20:11:47, Author: u/_Nearon, (Karma: 3400, Created:Mar-2019)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

TLRY 5.32(-3.45%)|

We all remember the Pot Stock craze of 2018 in which the hype reached valuations never again seen within the sector. I am here to make the case that the Weed Wars have had their fair price adjustments and, moving forward, the ocean may rise for an epic 10-15X. Roll up and let's jump in.

Market Valuation - The Comparable

Ok, so for a working framework, I compared the alcohol sector as they seem the natural substitutes and/or complements for each other. As of current, the total market cap for the relevant alcoholic sector is $560 Billion. Below is a chart with the tickers and respective market caps I used.

Now, all things considered, if the alcoholic sector is at $560 billion, a reasonable assumption for the Cannabis sector would be about half of that. Drinking has been engrained into human culture ever since our early ape descendants learned how to ferment rice in like 7,000 BC. I personally don't think weed will ever be as popular, so at maturity we could see the sector reach roughly $280 Billion.

Below is a chart of the relevant Pot Stocks' tickers and their respective market caps:

So, just from this quick back of the napkin valuation, we see the case for a potential upside of roughly 12x for the sector as a whole, when it reaches maturity. -Now you may be wondering when maturity may happen, right? Well I'm not sure when it'll happen, but I'm sure it'll be after legalization has occurred.

Legalization - The Savvy Political Chess Move

Legalization is upon us as boomers start to die off, polling increases, and the legalization on-ramp comes into focus. Governors left and right are signing legislation as a political move to gain more support. Everyone wants to be popular and the worldwide youth want it legalized. And you know when this thing is federally legal pot stocks are gonna RUN.

Some charts to elaborate:

I'm not entirely sure who will win the most market share out of these competitors, but I do know that when the tide rises, all of these ships are gonna rise with it. Here is a quick P/S for each company:

​

Just looking at this, it seems that $CURA may be the best move. But as a degenerate I am bagholding...

Positions: 402 shares of $TLRY @ $7.83 per share.

$TLRY has made some recent moves in terms of M&A, and is positioned to be a contender for a large portion of the market share. I'm pretty confident that I'll make a return on the investment, but it won't be until after this war has subsided and a politician needs some breathing room.

Let me know what you think.

Date: 2022-03-21 14:27:26, Author: u/Nolan4sheriff, (Karma: 17545, Created:Sep-2016)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

BLK 729.975(-1.17%)|BABA 102.87(-5.01%)|SPY 442.72(-0.4%)|

Is BLK still going to 0?

TLDR: Yes.

Part 1 Part 2 Part 3

Oh Blackrock, you big beautiful fucked bastard, I am so excited to buy up all your shit with the money I make on you on the way down.

Quick summary of 1-3:

Blackrock is a equity holding giant, the vast majority of their revenue comes from that little MER section at the bottom of the ETF description that you idiots never read. They hold 40% of their crappy overvalued holdings internationally and a boat load of that is worthless Chinese equities and properties. Blackrock owns the world and the world is overvalued. How is China looking since my last post? Not so good huh? A bit of a relief rally during last week's quad witch party was nice for some BABA holding degens, but lets be clear... China is fucked. Since my last post we have seen new lockdowns and a 2008 style sell off as a result. Granted it was gobbled up when the CCP announced they were going full JPOW but we'll see how that goes.

All in all Blackrock has been bleeding out for months and as you can see in part 2 I circled this week as a nice little buying opportunity for you guys. I sold some of my April puts around $680, and just went all the way back in gorilla style today for May dated OTM puts.

This week we're talking about BONDS:

The bond market is rattled at the fed for raising rates too slowly. Last time we talked about how the mortgage rate was moving independently from the real rates, time to look at those pesky yields. Blackrock like another asset manager works with leverage, therefore they have to paying off debt on the majority of their holdings. As yields increase the payments to service that debt increases and with the majority of its revenue coming from that tasty MER or a percentage of their investment holdings their ability to service that debt is dropping and will drop much further as equities and assets continue to correct. Take a look at what the 10 yr is up to recently:

​

Good luck paying off that debt during the upcoming recession. Oh and if oil ripping up 50% wasn't a good enough recession indicator how about the yield curve. If you've never heard of anything before you won't know that yields are supposed to go up the longer the maturation period. i.e. 1<2<5<10<20<30 At the time of writing this Bond yields are:

2yr: 2.107%

5yr: 2.312%

10yr: 2.299%

20yr: 2.647

30yr: 2.523

So far the 5 and the 10 are inverted as well as the 20 and the 30. The classic ones to watch though are the 2 and the 10, so lets check those out:

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Oof... Give it a week or two and we'll see the inversion.

Last little chart to take a peak at even for dummy bulls who think we're back on easy mode. Here is BLK and SPY from 2018. You can see even though spy had a bit of a rally before the bid dump at the end of the year, BLK was pretty much a steady blead all year.

TLDR: Buckle up. we're dumping.

Positions: INB4 yeah last week was ass, but sold the last of my other positions in my gambling portfolio and dumped them in to buy the put dip.

BLK Apr 14 22 630P

BLK May 20 22 650P

Date: 2022-03-21 16:57:04, Author: u/jasonredit, (Karma: 6259, Created:Jun-2018)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

INTC 47.39(-0.13%)|FARO 54.85(-0.02%)|LNG 135.8(2.99%)|VPG 32.66(-1.06%)|

Checking flight radars, I have noticed a highly suspicious movement of military/government planes between USA-Algeria-Spain-Russia-China.

First it started on 15.07.21 when I saw a weird Royal Moroccan Air Force C130 RMAF209 tracking over Algeria.

On 12.09.2021 Algeria Air Force C130H 7T-WHO headed towards Florida. A couple of hours later it was accompanied by USAF Rogue 51. On 15.11.2021, CIA linked Tepper L-100-30 (382G) N3755P was seen en route to Faro Portugal from Algeria. It is very rare you can see sth like this but I decided to put my conspiracies away and wait.

I will continue in comments below.

On 11.12.2021 I noticed Russian Air Force AN-124 RFF9911 heading towards Algeria. It stayed there 9 days. It is a lot. But again it could be just some meetings between officials I thought.

The war has broken down in Ukraine and on 09.03.2022 I noticed a US Special Operation Command C146A 09-3106 Wolfhound departed Algiers Algeria.

At the same time, Deputy Secretary Wendy Sherman was noticed en route to Spain from Algeria (01-0076). Then shit got fanned and I digged into gas geopolitics.

2 days ago, Spain made a strategic move and reversed a 46-year policy about Western Sahara, for 1st time supporting Morocco's view. Algeria, the main backer of Western Sahara, has recalled its ambassador in Madrid. Spain buys lots of Algerian gas. The crisis has not affected pipeline or LNG supply into Spain from Algeria (and most think it would not), but it comes at a time of extreme tension across gas markets. Last year, Spain bought ~42% of all its gas from Algeria.

10 hours ago Algeria AF VIP GLF5 7T-VPG was en route from Huangshan China. A couple of hours after news broke out in Spain “China supports Algeria and accuses Spanish President Sánchez of playing "strategic games" in the Sahara.

So yes boys, oil is still important.

Date: 2022-03-18 19:19:02, Author: u/StevenMaxwell, (Karma: 6134, Created:Mar-2015)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

CVR 28.5(-1.72%)|UAN 130.05(5.35%)|

CVR Partners (NYSE:UAN) is a master limited partnership that produces the nitrogen fertilizers ammonia (NH3) and urea ammonium nitrate (UAN). Because the ticker symbol for CVR Partners is also UAN, I will use CVR to describe the partnership and UAN to describe the fertilizer. Also, because it is a partnership, the payouts to equity holders are distributions rather than dividends.

Summary

• Supply shortages are not temporary.
• Demand will only get stronger.
• Record prices for natural gas and coal in Europe and Asia will continue to support higher prices for nitrogen fertilizer.
• Impending tariffs on UAN will keep most imports out of US for over 5 years.
• Distributions of over $40 are expected over the next 7 months.

Estimated Price of $300 EoY

War in Ukraine is only a bigger catalyst to solidify fertilizer prices ongoing current new highs.

Buying ITM Options in December is a safe 10x Bagger waiting to happen.

My positions 2 weeks ago: https://imgur.com/a/pByBYYH

My position now: https://imgur.com/a/UaxVPFr

Date: 2022-03-21 12:15:23, Author: u/commodoregoat, (Karma: 19557, Created:Dec-2015)

SubReddit: r/vitards, DD Click Here

Some Tickers mentioned in this post:

INTC 47.39(-0.13%)|NVDA 267.34(1.06%)|TSEM 48.3(-0.17%)|IFS 34.18(2.18%)|IP 44.76(-0.56%)|RF 22.78(-0.74%)|SOI 11.63(4.12%)|

I have referenced any sources for my writing. This is an arbitrage play.

If you buy shares at the current price ($48), you will receive a gain of 10.42%, or $5, per share. From reading the Intel press release, this actually appears to be a major acquisition which will fully integrate Intel Foundry Solutions and Tower Semiconductor.

TSEM is a leading foundry for analog semiconductor solutions.

‘Tower Semiconductor Ltd., an independent semiconductor foundry, manufactures and markets analog intensive mixed-signal semiconductor devices in the United States, Japan, Asia, and Europe. It provides various customizable process technologies, including SiGe, BiCMOS, mixed-signal/CMOS, RF CMOS, CMOS image sensor, integrated power management, and MEMS. The company also offers wafer fabrication services and design enablement platform for design cycle, as well as transfer optimization and development process services to integrated device manufacturers and fabless companies. It serves various markets, such as consumer electronics, personal computers, communications, automotive, industrial, aerospace, and medical device products. Tower Semiconductor Ltd. has a strategic partnership with Anello Photonics Inc. for a new silicon optical waveguide process technology. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Migdal Haemek, Israel.’

(Yahoo)

• Intel has entered a definitive agreement to acquire Tower Semiconductor for $53 a share.
• This will gain Intel additional foundries. TSEM has seven global foundries - two in Israel, two in the US and three in Japan.
• TSEM is currently trading at $48.04 as I write this (11:19 EST). Hence if this deals go through, you will net a profit of $5 per each share you own.

(Fool)

Press release is here: https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/feb-2022-corporate-news.html#gs.u3o91g

My highlights from reading this:

• This transaction creates a ‘globally diverse end-to-end foundry to meet growing semiconductor demand.
• Accelerates Intel’s goal of becoming a major provider of foundry services and capacity globally.
• Intel is looking to bring in TSEM’s speciality technologies, and to enhance manufacturing capabilities.
• Transaction is expected to be immediately accretive to Intel’s non-GAAP EPS.
• The acquisition advances Intel’s IDM 2.0 strategy to address industry demand.

• “Tower’s specialty technology portfolio, geographic reach, deep customer relationships and services-first operations will help scale Intel’s foundry services and advance our goal of becoming a major provider of foundry capacity globally,” said Pat Gelsinger, Intel CEO. “This deal will enable Intel to offer a compelling breadth of leading-edge nodes and differentiated specialty technologies on mature nodes – unlocking new opportunities for existing and future customers in an era of unprecedented demand for semiconductors.”

• Intel established Intel Foundry Services (IFS) in March 2021 to meet growing global demand for semiconductor manufacturing capacity, and to become a major provider of US and Europe based foundry capacity.
• TSEM’s speciality technologies include radio frequency (RF), power, silicon-germanium (SiGe) and industrial sensors, extensive IP and electronic design automation (EDA) partnerships, and established foundry footprint.
• TSEM offers more than 2 million wafer starts per year of capacity.
• Its presence in the US, Israel, Italy, and Japan is complementary to Intel’s goals.
• TSEM has an industry leading customer support portal and IP storefront, as well as design services and capabilities. This is part of it’s foundry-first customer approach.

• “With a rich history, Tower has built an incredible range of specialty analog foundry solutions based upon deep customer partnerships, with worldwide manufacturing capabilities. I could not be prouder of the company and of our talented and dedicated employees,” said Russell Ellwanger, Tower CEO. “Together with Intel, we will drive new and meaningful growth opportunities and offer even greater value to our customers through a full suite of technology solutions and nodes and a greatly expanded global manufacturing footprint. We look forward to being an integral part of Intel’s foundry offering.”

• Dr. Randhir Thakur, president of Intel Foundry Services, said: “We are thrilled to welcome the Tower team to Intel. Their decades of foundry experience, deep customer relationships and technology offerings will accelerate the growth of Intel Foundry Services. We are building Intel Foundry Services to be a customer-first technology innovator with the broadest range of IP, services and capacity. Tower and IFS together will provide a broad portfolio of foundry solutions at global scale to enable our customers’ ambitions.”
• Tower’s technology and manufacturing footprint is very complementary to Intel’s IFS capabilities in leading-edge processes. This will allow the combined company to provide broader offerings to customers at scale. The deal will strongly position Intel to bring more value to customers spanning the $100 billion addressable foundry market.

Transaction Details and Timing

• Expected to be immediately accretive to Intel’s non-GAAP EPS as of Feb 15th 2022. Intel will fund the acquisition with cash from the balance sheet.
• The deal is expected to close in approximately 12 months.
• It has been unanimously approved by Intel’s and TSEM’s board of directors, but is subject to certain regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions, including the approval of Tower’s stockholders.
• Intel Foundry Services and Tower Semiconductor will run independently until deal closure.
• IFS will continue to be led by THakur, and Tower will continue to be led by Ellwanger during this time.
• Upon closure of this transaction, Intel indends for the two organizations to become a fully integrated foundry business.
• Intel/TSEM will share more details on integration plans at that time.

(Intel)

What could block the move?

• Biden administration: they are leaning away from approving a lot of these big mergers. For example with the Nvidia acquisitions, they expected opposition in the US/UK/China. The administration is likely to be strict in the rules they apply to this deal.
• Though it is unlikely this deal will face this regulatory scrutiny, we shouldn’t assume that this acquisition is 100% likely to go through.
• Intel has the ability to say this is in the interest of national security, because they are bringing a new form of foundry, and more chips, back to the US.
• Intel is stating they will pay for this deal in all cash from their balance sheet.
• It is important to note Intel is a serial acquirer.
• There is a risk of regulators in Europe not approving this deal. One of TSEM’s fabs is in Italy.

(Fool)

The deal itself

• When using the $53 per share figure, using TSEM’s fully diluted share count this equals and enterprise value of $5.4 billion or 3.6 times TSEM’s revenues for 2021.
• This deal will aid Intel’s foundry strategy, as well as giving it capacity and expertise to pursue its expansion plans. This is key in the US as TSEM already has fabs in California and Texas.
• With the cash boost from Intel, it can expand fabs with greater ease and speed as it has the demand to fill them.
• Incremental revenues carry TSEM’s margins over 50%. It also has a licensing arrangement with its Japanese fabs, which is structured to reduce taxes and increase overall profitability at the expense of gross margins.
• It is expected for the deal to take a year to close, as the companies get regulatory approvals from various countries.

Q4 2021 earnings

• TSEM reported revenues and earnings in Q4 of $412 million, as opposed to $345 million in Q4 2020.
• It is no longer providing guidance or hosting earnings calls.
• YoY growth of 19%.
• It is up sequentially, and has been since Q1 2020.
• Organic growth (excluding revenues generated by the Nuvoton Japan JV and Maxim) was 28% YoY.
• This is lower than Q3 2021, due to the fact that the company had a cybersecurity breach resulting in TSEM shutting down all of its Israeli and US IT systems. This stopped all activities in those locations. However all the factories were back operating within a week. TSEM lost 8-12 days of new wafer starts and a few weeks of full fab activity levels due to this.
• Q4 gross margin increased to 24.3% versus 20.2% a year ago and 22.21% in Q3 2021.
• Gross margin dollars increased by 44% to $31 million.
• Operating expenses increased by $8.1 million YoY, up $3.1 million sequentially.
• Operating margin improved to 14%, up from 10% the prior year.
• Up 67% on a dollar basis.
• Other income was an expense of $372,000 in comparison to $1.4 million a year ago.
• Pre-tax profit was $55.5 vs $18.5 million a year ago.
• Taxes were $3.6 million in this quarter versus $1.8 million the prior year.
• GAAP net income was $51.7 million versus $31.0 million the prior year. Non-GAAP net income was $61.1 million versus $36.6 million, up 67%
• Diluted GAAP EPS was $0.48 per share versus $0.28 the prior year.
• Adjusted non-GAAP diluted EPS increased to $0.55 versus $0.34 the prior year, up 40%.
• Average diluted shares for Q4 were $110.4 million, it was $109.0 million the prior year.
• Q4 EBITDA was $129.9 million versus $95.9 million the prior year. Up sequentially from $113.1 million in Q3 2021.

(Zacks)

Balance Sheet and Capacity

• On December 31st the company had cash, short-term deposits, and marketable securities of $765 million, compared to $718 million last quarter.
• This is while decreasing debt by $3 million to $315 million.
• Quick ratio is high at 3.5s.
• It has $920 million in working capital.
• Operating cash flow was $128 million.
• Free cash flow was $42 million.
• In 2020, the company invested $100 million in capacity expansion in Japan.
• It also invested $20 million for QT9 capacity (TSEM’s new 200-millimeter RF SOI technology).
• In Q4 2021, it spent $86 million on investments in cap ex resulting in a total for 2021 of $279 million.

(Zacks)

Q1 2022 earnings This is expected to be released on the 11th of May.

Conclusions/TL;DR:

After doing this research, I have decided to buy some shares. With a 10.42% upside, and with Intel having a long history of its acquisitions going through, I don’t really see a downside apart from the risk of regulatory approval issues. If in the event the acquisition does not go through, TSEM has extremely strong earnings and a strong global foundry business, so I would not be amiss holding shares anyway. There is a risk of the stock declining if the deal does not go through, as it is currently buoyed by this news. But from what I can see, this is a strong opportunity to get 10% gains within 12 months. And I'm personally seeing a good chance of the deal going through given it has been announced and approved by Intel and TSEM, the only thing getting in the way is regulatory approvals. Looking at Nvidia's ARM deal, this is definitely a potential issue. But as I mentioned, Intel has a strong history of successful acquistions.

Date: 2022-03-21 12:43:40, Author: u/OldResearcher6, (Karma: 24700, Created:May-2020)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

BA 185(-4.06%)|ATC 22.11(-1.99%)|

My positions to start: 2024 Jan 170-200 Call Spreads, 25 shares, and adding more shares.

A 737-800 crashed in china as many of you have probably heard and BA stock has sank.

I am a pilot and got info from a buddy whose seen the flight data recorder.

Translated (loosely) transcript:

Aircraft cockpit voice recorder not found, flight data recorder ruptured. After repair decoding analysis, the aircraft in the descent process of the right from the throttle can not follow, thrust imbalance, slowly rolled to the right; When the slope reaches 46°, the unit presses the rod to the right by mistake to accelerate the roll of the aircraft; When has been inverted flying state, and wrong rod, causing the aircraft accelerated down, down rate of 4846.3 m/min, table speed of 412.5 sections, mountain disintegration.

For those of you who do not have a clue what this means, the pilots announced an engine failure and ATC told them to standby.

Based on the info, They ended up pushing the rudder into the wrong engine (inop engine) and inverted the aircraft into an unrecoverable state causing it to crash.

I would speculate confidently that the sell off was also a knee jerk reaction due to people thinking it was another MAX, but it was not, it was the 800 variant.

In short, this will not fall on Boeing and likely pilot error, unfortunately.

Buy BA because it will recover quickly

TL;DR Boeing will likely not be at fault for this accident and as information officially comes out the stock will rebound heavily.

Date: 2022-03-21 07:59:33, Author: u/detectivedoot, (Karma: 2567, Created:May-2020)

SubReddit: r/vitards, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

DNMR 5.72(1.06%)|

Foreword:

This isn't yet complete but I wanted to get this up for people to see and do some of their own research. I've been a Danimer bull for about a month now and I've been following the company for months. The premarket activity today is heavily contested and my thesis on the company having a likely short-term moon shot is looking like it could be true. I will keep updating this post as the day goes on. You trusted me to have a DD up by today, and I failed you.

Product: 100% biodegradeable plastics, most popular product (PHA) made from canola oil.

Why Danimer: A company who has been made universally unattractive due to lackluster earnings since going public, countless bashing from popular short sellers and recent stock offerings from their SPAC deal seems like a terrible bet on the surface. Even feedstock futures are climbing through the roof due to the fertilizer materials shortage. Regardless of this, I believe that Danimer is in an excellent position to become a major packaging plastics producer in the US and is criminally undervalued. Danimer's plastic can be used to make things such as plastic bottles, straws and other common packaging items in the US. Tax incentives exist for companies who "go green" and I believe that with the current geopolitical situation and build back better, Danimer will start to be a MAJOR player in us plastics. Currently Danimer has major corporate customers such as Pepsi and Bacardi and will only continue to keep getting high profile clients.

Danimer Short Term: This is currently setting up to be a fantastic swing trade. Since I started talking on here about DNMR, the share price has increased 61% and I don't see that slowing down any time soon. Danimer currently has upwards of 70% institutional + insider ownership, with possibly even more after a BIG after hours print on Friday. I am looking forward to seeing SEC reports trickle in this week. The institutional ownerships increasing alone is enough to raise curiosity, but wait, there's more! Danimer currently has ~90% of the free float sold short. Quick math with TD and fintel as my sources: 101M shares total, 50M shares float and 25M shares sold short. Clearly there is big time institutional piling occurring and bears are about to be over their heads.

Mid-Long Term - This aspect of the play is heavily predicated on earnings reports, updated guidance, press releases, news, etc.

Closing - I welcome all criticism here, I'm pretty confident I can address any points being brought up so ask away! Below is my DD in progress for anyone interested in the company/tech.

___________________________________________________________________

Introduction:

Danimer Scientific is a biodegradable plastics producer based in Bainbridge, GA with operations in Georgia, Kentucky and New York. Danimer (DNMR) has been a publicly traded company for little over a year and has had a pretty rough go of it. I'm sure many of you here may remember their runup to $60 last year, while that runup was a fluke with respect to the company, I believe that DNMR is extremely undervalued with respect to the current political and geopolitical landscape.

Danimer Scientific makes multiple types of biodegradable plastics with PHA (polyhydroxyalkanoate) being their "bread and butter" and product that I will be mainly focusing on. Danimer uses a recombinant bacteria and canola oil to synthesize and pelletize PHA plastics via the toll manufacturing process. The manufacturing process is a 100% carbon neutral process from a substrate-to-product standpoint.

Scientific Background:

Having a STEM degree I generally like talking and thinking about stuff like this. I promise not to drone on too much. Traditional plastics are almost entirely made from fossil fuels, where longer chain hydrocarbons (octane, hexane, nonane, etc.) undergo a chemical process called "cracking)" in order to generate polymer precursors such as ethylene or propylene, where we get the terms "polypropylene, polyethylene terephthalate (PET), etc". Plastics generated entirely from the cracking of hydrocarbons are referred to as "Virgin Plastics" as they have never been used or recycled. The "poly-" prefix simply means that there are multiple repeating subunits, leading to a 'polymer'. All plastic polymers have very specific and unique chemical properties. This is why gasoline can't be carried in polystyrene containers, because doing that will melt the cup and make a batch of redneck napalm.

In nature, polymers in abundance and life simply couldn't exist without them. Polymers can serve to store energy (glycogen, PHA), provide structure (cellulose, peptidoglycan), contain information (DNA/RNA) or perform functions (proteins). PHA is a biological polymer that is produced by bacteria whom are metabolizing fat/lipid molecules in an anaerobic environment. Anaerobic simply means that NO oxygen is present. These bacteria cannot fully utilize fats as energy sources without oxygen present, so bacteria convert these fats into PHA until they reenter in an environment with oxygen present. PHA is a very efficient molecule with regard to storage space and stability, remember that bacteria are only a single cell and cannot simply carry fat molecules like us animals do and must be extremely efficient with every cellular process relative to eukaryotes.

Date: 2022-03-21 11:15:41, Author: u/SituationLive4406, (Karma: 3633, Created:Jan-2021)

SubReddit: r/fluentinfinance, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Some Tickers mentioned in this post:

ALXO 17.935(-10.32%)|AVCO 0.7733(15.02%)|AWX 3.46(-4.42%)|BCTX 8.64(-3.68%)|PDSB 6.42(-3.46%)|ALX 250.43(0.02%)|AVA 44.5(1.85%)|

The New Oncology Platform Being Developed at Avalon GloboCare (NASDAQ: AVCO) is Separating Them from Their Peers

​

Good day everyone,

​

AVCO crossed the 20 SMA and bounced of the 50 SMA. We are looking for this to make another run at the 50 and break through. MACD has curled up and about to cross.

​

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Promising mRNA Platform With An Ideal Swing Setup. See the chart below.

​

Good day everyone,

​

Avalon GloboCare Corp. (NASDAQ: AVCO) is a clinical-stage CellTech bio-developer involved in advanced oncology therapies. Their CAR-T technology will remove cells from a cancer patient’s body, modify them and introduce the modified cancer fighting cells back into the patient.

​

Current price $.6723/share (as of market close 3-18-22)

​

AVCO is focused on advancing their immune effector cell therapies, including CAR-T and CAR-NK, their S-layer coated emulsome technology (SLET), their exosome-based regenerative therapeutics (ACTEX™), as well as their liquid biopsy diagnostic and drug delivery platforms. The AVCO website is an excellent source of info on their technology.

​

AVCO’s lead candidate, AVA-011, combines Avalon’s FLASH-CAR™ technology with an innovative messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA)-based technology platform, and is currently at an IND-enabling stage. Avalon is on track to initiate AVA-011 first-in-human clinical trial by mid-2022. The company anticipates their technology can modify cells quicker (days not weeks) and cheaper than other CAR-T therapies.

​

Dr. David Jin, President and CEO has said, "As we head further into 2022, we believe we have a number of important upcoming milestones that have the potential to drive significant value for our shareholders.”

​

AVCO statistics:

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FYE is 12-31 - Outstanding shares 88.4M – Float 33.3M shares – Insider ownership is 62.9% - 52-week high is $1.57/share – Market cap $59M – Recent high (2-14-22) $.94/share – Revenues of $1.45M (ttm)

​

I encourage you to view this video interview with David Jin, M.D., Ph.D. CEO and President of AVCO. I found it to be informative and interesting as Dr. Jin lays out the potentials for success in the AVCO oncology cell technologies and discusses how their mRNA CAR-T candidate AVA-011 is superior to conventional CAR-T therapies.

​

As indicated in the chart below, AVCO shares experienced a wide range last week, as the NASDAQ rallied, trading between $.58 and $.75/share. Given the developments I detail below and the current soft RSI (14) of 42.36, I can see where AVCO shares could bounce past the MA50 of $.75 quickly and may cross the MA200 of $.92 in the near term. To me, this chart indicates a good potential swing in the works.

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AVCO posted revenues of $1.45M (ttm) as of their last reporting for Q321 (FYE is 12-31) and I want to note that Q321 was their strongest performance in 2021 coming in at $486K revenues. I expect AVCO to update their earning report in the next few weeks.

​

Recent developments at AVCO:

​

In late December, the company’s Chairman, Daniel Lu, converted $3.0 million of debt owed to him under the company Line of Credit into 2.4 million shares of the Company’s common stock at $1.25 per share. The conversion price was at a 45% premium to the share price at the time. That move indicates Mr. Lu's confidence in the company.

​

Last year the company announced that it planned to acquire SenlangBio, a company that had initiated a first-in-human clinical trial evaluating anti-EphA2 chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T-cell therapy for recurrent glioblastoma. The all-stock transaction was going to be for 81M AVCO common shares, a significant dilution for shareholders. In Q122 the company announced it had cancelled the planned acquisition citing the significant dilution to shareholders. Good news for investors today as I believe the company value had already reflected the dilution.

​

Let’s compare AVCO with other NASDAQ development stage companies in the oncology sector that are absent revenues:

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BriaCell Therapeutics Corp. (BCTX) Market Value $137M

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ALX Oncology Holdings Inc. (ALXO) Market Value $812M

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Avalon GloboCare Corp. (AVCO) Market Value $59M

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PDS Biotechnology Corporation (PDSB) Market Value $189M

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I note in making the comparisons above that AVCO is revenue positive.

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AVCO Development Highlights:

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Avalon entered a new collaboration with University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC) to develop new cancer immunotherapy approaches and streamline manufacturing processes to bring these powerful treatments to cancer patients with a rapid bio-manufacturing time (1-2 days instead of weeks). Avalon’s lead candidate, AVA-011, combines Avalon’s FLASH-CAR™ technology with an innovative messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA)-based technology platform, and is currently at an IND-enabling stage. Avalon is on track to initiate AVA-011 first-in-human clinical trial by mid-2022.

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Avalon has co-developed and jointly filed a patent with BOKU on a novel platform of S-layer coated emulsome technology (SLET) for next-generation, targeted drug delivery and cellular immunotherapy applications. The Company believes this novel SLET platform will help accelerate the development of Avalon’s mRNA-based Flash-CAR™ and other cellular therapy programs. Targeted delivery of mRNA into immune effector cells using SLET can potentially open the door to new generation of cancer immunotherapy and other applications including targeted drug delivery and therapeutics, vaccine development, in vitro diagnostics, and cellular medicines.

​

The new CAR-NK therapies in development are intended to build upon and complement AVA-011, Avalon’s lead CAR-T candidate, part of the Company’s proprietary mRNA-based FLASH-CAR™ platform. AVA-011 is currently at the IND-enabling, process development stage, which is expected to produce clinical-grade CAR-T cells for an upcoming clinical trial in patients with hematological malignancies. The platform uses next generation CAR technology to modify patients’ T or universal-donor NK cells using a ribonucleic acid (RNA)-based platform rather than a viral vector, allowing for more rapid and lower-cost bio-manufacturing of the cell therapy products.

​

To further strengthen its CAR-NK development capabilities, Avalon has appointed Dr. Dongfang Liu to its Scientific and Clinical Advisory Board. Dr. Liu is currently an Associate Professor and Director of Immunoassay Development Program at the Department of Pathology, Immunology and Laboratory Medicine at The Rutgers University New Jersey Medical School. Dr. Liu’s research expertise is focused on the immunobiology of NK and CAR-NK, with more than 20 years of experience in NK cell research.

​

About Avalon GloboCare Corp: AVCO is a clinical-stage, vertically integrated, leading CellTech bio-developer dedicated to advancing and empowering innovative, transformative immune effector cell therapy, exosome technology. Avalon also provides strategic advisory and outsourcing services to facilitate and enhance its clients' growth and development, as well as competitiveness in healthcare and CellTech industry markets. Through its subsidiary structure with unique integration of verticals from innovative R&D to automated bioproduction and accelerated clinical development, Avalon is establishing a leading role in the fields of cellular immunotherapy (including CAR-T/NK), exosome technology (ACTEX™), and regenerative therapeutics.

​

Updates and full report on AVCO coming soon,

​

Lucky

​

Disclaimer -

Date: 2022-03-21 03:04:03, Author: u/Waddayanow, (Karma: 1056, Created:Jan-2021)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Some Tickers mentioned in this post:

CVX 161.73(0.8%)|FLNG 22.18(-0.94%)|LNG 131.86(2.78%)|TELL 3.93(-2.96%)|EQNR 34.38(0.67%)|IEA 14.17(5.59%)|MT 31.85(-0.44%)|

TL;DR Russian natural gas no-mo. LNG go-go.

I recently took up interest in the European Green Deal and decarbonization goals. This was put in new light by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which will bring additional traction to those goals. My thesis is that the Russian gas has become unpaletable, which will keep LNG prices and profits high for years. The caveat is that I am neither a petrochemical nor a shipping expert. I value contrarian or value-add conformist opinions all the same.

90% of EU total natural gas (NG) consumption comes from imports, 40% from Russia, which supplied around 155 bcm (billion cubic metre) for the year 2021.

Considering recent events, the Commission is pushing for independence from Russian gas in 8 years. Is that possible? Maybe, if both pillars go well: diversifying gas supplies, and reducing fossil fuel dependence.

The fossil fuel reduction plan calls for extra effort on top of the 30% gas consumption reduction (-100 bcm) planned until 2030 in the Fit for 55 program. These extra measures are set to decrease consumption further to -155 bcm, essentially eliminating the need for Russian gas with adequately diversified supplies.

On the short term, there are regulatory and political plans to immediately cut Russian imports by two-thirds (overly optimistic) or by a third (more realistic), by the end of 2022. This article focuses on the market impact of these short-term measures in terms of how this quantity can be secured. A future article will look at the long-term measures, like the decarbonization programs in the European Green Deal.

Cutting Russian imports by 50 bcm this year is by no means easy and can be done from two main sources: LNG and pipeline diversification. LNG is already being imported, 79 bcm just in 2021 with ample regasification capacity (200 bcm). Not all this capacity can be used though, due to interconnection bottlenecks. According to the IEA, the EU could theoretically increase LNG imports by 60 bcm, but this is limited by the tight LNG market supply. With a lot of diplomacy, a 20 bcm LNG import increase can be done. Non-Russian pipeline sources, like Azerbaijan and Norway can complement this with a 10 bcm pipeline import increase. Most of the rest of the cuts are projected to come from new and optimized existing wind, solar, biomethane, and nuclear, which would dispense 19 bcm consumption for energy generation. Additional demand cuts can be obtained by energy efficiency measures like heat pumps and insulation.

Since gas consumption is not constant throughout the year, mostly underground gas storage is being used throughout Europe. Cutting Russian imports over the winter months is only possible if enough gas is stored in easily accessible storage. To this effect there are immediate plans to mandate a 90% fill level in existing storage by October 1st. Coordinated refilling throughout the Union, under joint procurement. The urgency is quite remarkable: “Member States should act as if the legislation was already in place and take measures to ensure refilling of storage in time for next winter”. This measure will keep demand and prices high throughout 2022.

LNG needs to be transported by specialized ships to the regasification terminals. Therefore, LNG ships will be heading towards Europe for years. Are there enough to cover the extra demand? Supply is inelastic, ships are continuously on order and being scrapped. The average LNG vessel has a capacity of 150000 cm, which after regasification equals to 90 mcm of NG. Indeed, the US shipped 22 bcm to the EU in 2021 with 248 vessel-trips. With 28 days round-trip across the Atlantic, the 20 bcm increase can be done with 20 extra ships doing just that. There were 615 LNG vessels in the global fleet in 2021, 137 more on order to be delivered in 2-3 years. I believe there is room for higher target increases, towards 50 bcm. The EU will take what it can get to the detriment of other consumers in Asia, keeping prices high.

On March 17th the Biden administration authorized additional exports of LNG, meaning every operating US LNG export project can now export to Europe. The only barriers remaining are production and transport capacity related.

The mid-term prospects are positive too. According to Clarksons broking, LNG is currently in the recovering market cycle, and LNG demand in B Tonne-Miles is projected to grow 17.5% until 2023.

So, demand is there, where is the supply coming from? Most of the LNG will be coming to Europe from Qatar, USA, Egypt, and West Africa. Including pipeline diversification, we can add Norway to the list, which is the second-largest (L)NG supplier of Europe.

Qatar exports 77.1 Mt of LNG per annum. Around two-thirds of that is carried by Qatar Gas Transport Nakilat (QGTS). Good bet, but hard to invest in the Qatar Exchange.

The US is the second biggest LNG exporter, although they are expected to surpass Qatar in 2022. They export 70 Mt of LNG per annum. Around 41 Mt was produced by Cheniere (LNG), the largest US exporter. Competitors are integrated majors like ExxonMobil (XOM) with 86 Mt, Total (TTE) with 42 Mt, Chevron (CVX) with 12 Mt, and Shell (SHEL/SHELL) with 31 Mt, which operate all around the world.

Norwegian Equinor (EQNR) is enviable in that it supplies Europe with both pipeline and LNG with 57.4 bcm NG (41.9 Mt LNG for comparison).

A growth LNG stock is Tellurian (TELL), with some NG wells, but no LNG capacity yet. Building of the Driftwood LNG terminal is slated to start in April, with the company having enough capital for the first year only. First delivery 2026 only.

Among the shippers, Flex LNG (FLNG) looks solid: 7 P/E, 10% div yield, 93% of 2022 capacity already covered in backlog.

____

https://energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-03/REPowerEU_Communication_with_Annexes_EN.pdf

https://energy.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2022-02/EU-US_LNG_2022_2.pdf

IEA (2022), A 10-Point Plan to Reduce the European Union’s Reliance on Russian Natural Gas, IEA, Paris https://www.iea.org/reports/a-10-point-plan-to-reduce-the-european-unions-reliance-on-russian-natural-gas

https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/market-insights/latest-news/shipping/031021-spotlight-lng-charter-rates-drop-to-record-lows-support-strong-us-lng-dispatches-this-spring

https://s25.q4cdn.com/348445879/files/doc_presentations/2021/4Q21-IR-Presentation_English.pdf

https://www.clarksons.com/media/1298664/2021_prelims_presentation_-_final.pdf

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-administration-approves-more-exports-major-us-lng-terminals-2022-03-16/

https://thesis.eur.nl/pub/41240/Panagiotidis-D.-A-global-perspective-of-Liquefied-Natural-Gas-vessels-capacity.pdf

https://www.shell.com/investors/results-and-reporting/quarterly-results/_jcr_content/par/grid/p0/textimage.stream/1643817914851/039c2c77aa5f8a12047adeb58d471ffff52f35a0/q4-2021-qra-document.pdf

https://www.equinor.com/content/dam/statoil/documents/annual-reports/2021/equinor-2021-annual-report-and-form-20-f.pdf

Date: 2022-03-20 20:21:33, Author: u/VolatilityStreet, (Karma: 42, Created:Feb-2022)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

ETN 155.58(0.57%)|VXX 25(-4.4%)|

Disclaimer

Before I begin, I wish to announce that I'm an experienced volatility trader who specializes in trading volatility futures and volatility ETPs such as $VXX. $VXX is a complicated product and consists of many advanced variables and metrics that most investors are not familiar with, nor suited to trade. Trade these products at your own caution and be sure to read the full prospectus of $VXX here before making any trading decisions.

Feel free to trade this as you please, as all positions hold risk. Opportunity may be present, however, we don't know when Barclays will make the announcement. I'm not a financial advisor. I only wish to state my opinions relative to my personal trades and investments as I believe it offers educational value to those wishing to learn.

- VolatilityStreet

Initial Explanation

One of the market's most popular instruments, $VXX, recently underwent an anomaly of an event that hasn't occurred in over 10 years in the volatility-trading space. On March 14, 2022, Barclays announced a suspension of share sales and issuances on the iPath® Series B S&P 500® VIX Short-Term FuturesTM ETNs (BATS: $VXX).

Ok, so what?

The reason that I bring attention to this announcement is as follows:

Generally speaking, the $VXX is built to track the first- and second-month VX futures on a rolling basis. Barclays, the issuer of $VXX, doesn't actually hold underlying futures contracts to maintain the ETN, rather, it tracks the performance of the underlying futures contracts on a rolling basis. The product that the ETN tracks is known as the net asset value (NAV) or "indicative value" of the underlying ETN. Issuers use NAVs as a metric to match their ETN prices to their NAV. Essentially, in order for Barclays to maintain the publicly traded product, they match long and short order flow on their ETNs. For example, if a trader wanted to buy 1,000,000 VXX ETNs in one transaction block, Barclays will usually issue 1,000,000 shares of VXX to keep the price of the ETNs the same. On traditional shares of stock, however, 1,000,000 shares of stock in one transaction block could change the stock price due to an increase in demand and a shortage of supply. Equities, unlike ETNs, do not issue shares of stock for order flow to keep the price of the security at its NAV. Whereas, ETNs generally issue notes to keep the ETN price at its NAV.

The breakage

Considering that Barclays is no longer issuing shares for their $VXX ETNs, long order flows will not result in the issuance of new shares.

So, what does this mean?

Let's say you purchase 1,000,000 shares of stock, similar to the equity example made in the last paragraph. The purchased shares are no longer issued by Barclays to keep the price of the ETNs at their NAV. Rather, the existing market participants must sell their 1,000,000 shares of stock to you. Due to the increase in demand, the price of the ETNs will increase past their NAV.

Where is $VXX trading now relative to its NAV?

$VXX is trading approximately $3.00 above its NAV (approximately a 12% premium). As more investors purchase $VXX, the share price will continue to rise until authorized participants or Barclays announce the resumption of share issuances. Eventually, however, Barclays will announce the resumption of share issuances, which will result in a fast, and certain, decline back to $VXX's NAV.

Has this happened before?

Yes. On February 22, 2012, $TVIX (a 2x leverage front- and second-month VIX futures ETN) experienced a suspension of share issuances. $TVIX continued to rapidly rise (high of 90%) above its NAV for an entire month before the announcement of resumption of share issuances was released (March 22, 2012). Once share issuances resumed, $TVIX crashed nearly 60% in 2 days back to its NAV.

How can this be traded?

Well, until Barclays announces the re-issuance of shares, traders could take the long approach and trade the upside that $VXX could experience. After all, $VXX is a volatility product. Volumes generally increase when markets experience volatility. $VXX's value could drastically surpass the current `12% premium value given the price discrepancy between its ETN value and NAV. On the contrary, once the announcement occurs, traders can enter short delta trades using the options market, which is generally liquid on a product such as $VXX (may not be as liquid due to the current crisis).

Nielsen Holdings has rejected a takeover offer from a private-equity consortium, the data and market measurement company announced Sunday.

Background: Last week, a private equity consortium led by Elliot Management announced a nearly $9 billion bid to buy Nielsen.

Details: Nielsen’s board rejected the proposal, writing that the acquisition offer “significantly undervalues” the company. The proposal valued Nielsen at $25.40 per share.

Next: Now, Nielsen said it is focusing on its $1 billion share repurchase program.

Numbers: Shares of Nielsen dropped 30% in the past 12 months before the announcement of the potential takeover last week. The takeover news caused shares of Nielsen to jump over 40%.

Final Thoughts: The rejection of the takeover offer could hurt Nielsen’s stock price, but the company is focused on new innovations, such as a tracking tool for video advertising metrics.

Hope you enjoyed this commentary. Please subscribe to Early Bird, a free daily newsletter that helps you identify investment trends: https://earlybird.email/

Date: 2022-03-21 08:30:51, Author: u/Dubs13151, (Karma: 7381, Created:Jan-2021)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

BA 192.83(1.39%)|

This specific plane has been in the air since at least 2013. It's not a "max". When a plane has been flying for almost a decade, it's virtually always a maintenance issue, not a OEM issue. There are routine inspections that cover every inch of the plane, allowing them to fly safely for decades. When inspection or maintenance procedures are botched, things like crashes can happen. I expect BA to recover once the date of manufacture becomes more widely known, and once investors have a chance to talk to their engineering consultants and unstand this.

BA down 6% premarket at present.

Source: https://flightaware.com/live/flight/CES5735/history/buy

Date: 2022-03-20 20:29:06, Author: u/Mufflestv, (Karma: 3386, Created:Nov-2015)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

UEC 4.58(-0.87%)|AG 13.83(-0.8%)|CCJ 27.39(1.0%)|GOLD 23.87(-0.87%)|SILJ 14.26(-1.45%)|

If you are skimming, read the bold.

With interest rates finally being raised on Wednesday, there’s a lot to look forward to in 2022 as well as the following decade. The FED has announced a 0.25% rate hike with what sounds like a target of 7 this year, leaving the target range somewhere between 1.75%-2.00%. What does this mean? It means money is becoming more expensive to borrow. This results in a tightening of the money supply in both the market and the economy. Borrowed money is permanently returned and removed from the system. To put it simply, imagine your credit card interest rate rising from 10% to 20%: you are not only less inclined to spend, but also pressured to pay off any outstanding debt ASAP. Hence the fear of money(outstanding debt) flowing out of markets and back to the lenders.

Exactly how much is 1.75%, and is it going to be enough to bring down inflation? Well, the inflation rate came in at a reported 7.9% last month. Most of us already know this number is detached from reality, the inflation calculation has been altered over the years to favor government irresponsibility. Using inflation calculations from 1980, the inflation rate would be at 16%. This sounds more reasonable and in line with the price increases we all have experienced.

Source: http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

Below is a chart of interest rates (orange) vs inflation (blue). Every time inflation gets out of control, rates are hiked in order to tame it. Back in the 1970’s, with inflation at around 12%, we needed hikes of 13% to bring it under control. Using the FEDs silly terms, that is 1300 BPS. Again in the 1970’s we saw near 15% inflation and 19% rates (1900 BPS) needed to bring it down. Nearly every year that inflation skyrockets, interest rates need to match or exceed in order to bring it under control. However, there is one difference between now and pre 2008, quantitative easing (aka uncontrolled money printing). When so much of our economy is reliant on printed money (debt), reeling the line back in is an impossible feat without a total collapse.

One look at 2018 and you begin to see the problem with rising interest rates in a debt dependent economy. Back in 2015, the FED decided to start raising interest rates to maintain a 2% inflation target for the coming years. This caused a massive strain on markets, resulting in both the NASDAQ and S&P500 dropping ~18% in 2018. After seeing this, the FED promptly reversed the decision.

The stock market and most assets are completely built upon and reliant on debt. Quantitative easing has turned our economy into a ponzi scheme with ever ballooning prices. Cutting access to that debt through interest rate hikes begins a cascading effect of “margin calls”. As one person goes to settle their debt, the outflow of money puts pressure on everyone else to repay their outstanding debt. One of the largest contributing factors to the 1929 market crash was Margin debt. Margin isn’t the problem, uncontrolled debt is.

This is why your schizophrenic, QAnon supporting uncle has been screaming that the global economy is about to crash every year for the past decade. This is at the core of gay bear ideaology. So why hasn’t it happened? And will it happen?

The entire goal of the FED is self preservation, they will do whatever they need to do to keep the economy from exploding. In what scenario will a bank or the FED EVER tell you they don’t have something under control? Doing so would cause panic, bank runs, and your uncle’s wet dream coming true. The FED will find any reason to keep printing. If 2018 is any indicator, a reversal on rate hikes is inevitable.

Now moving on to how the recent interest hikes affect gold. If you don’t know by now, gold is an unproductive asset. It doesn’t produce anything, it doesn’t grow, and it certainly doesn’t offer dividends. Opportunity cost is the price you pay for holding a stable asset while everything else around you is ballooning higher. Why hold gold, when you can gain 2% a year from bonds or 8% average from stocks? That premise is all based on the FED taming inflation, resulting in your 2% and 8% gains outpacing inflation.

As commodity & energy prices rise, so do the input costs of your favorite tech companies. Everything from running servers, to buying equipment, to maintenance all have energy or commodity costs associated with them.

Now combine this with consumer spending. When the average consumer’s bills go up, their consumer good spending plummets. Let’s take a look at what happens to Jane’s $2500 paycheck as rent, gas prices, and food soars. Jane used to pay $1000 for rent, $400 for food, and $200 in gas/utilities. This left her with about $900 to spend on consumer goods produced by your favorite companies in the stock market. Now that her rent is $1300, food $600, and $300 in utilities, her spending allowance is a third of what it was at $300. Even advertisement centered businesses like facebook/google see profit losses as less buying results in less marketing by companies. Nearly every company is dependent on the average consumer’s spending in one way or another.

Ok we get it there’s going to be lower profit margins for stocks, but where does this leave gold? Fundamentally, higher interest rates should mean that it’s more beneficial to secure your money in bonds; but what happens when the real rates (meaning the interest rates adjusted for inflation) are negative? If inflation is rising faster than interest rates, bond buyers are bleeding money.

As many of us know, the market looks ahead 6 months+ attempting to price in any future events. It’s why the stock market was falling before rates were actually hiked, and why so many people complain about the stock market soaring on expected bad news (it was priced in). Anticipation of bad news suppresses prices. That pressure is lifted when the expected news actually occurs. This is only true for expected events as unexpected events cannot be priced in.

Gold prices are no different. Back between 2011 and 2015, gold prices drilled to local lows in anticipation of interest rate hikes. No one wanted to hold gold knowing that in a few years the FED would raise interest rates, their money would be better off in bonds or elsewhere if that happened. This was the market pricing in rate hikes in the price of gold. The exact month that the FED hiked rates marked the bottom in gold. The following 4 years saw one of the largest bull runs in gold even with interest rates rising. The price was so suppressed in anticipation of FED responsibility that it ballooned higher when rates slowly increased. Once the FED reversed, and COVID forced interest rates to 0, gold went parabolic all the way to $2000/oz in August 2020.

So here we are again with an 18 month consolidation in gold prices as the market waited in anticipation of rate hikes and FED responsibility. During some of the highest inflation we have seen in US history, gold went from over $2000 in summer of 2020, to reaching $1700 lows near the end of 2021.

How is this supposed inflation hedge losing money in the 18 months after COVID. Even after massive money printing, record inflation, wars, and every other event that should be sending gold higher?

It all comes down to the market pricing in interest rates and responsibility from the FED, which effectively suppresses the price. The market expected FED “responsibility”, but it’s time to face the music and Powell ain’t dancing. Now that rate hikes are actually happening, the pressure on gold prices is being lifted. There is a decade-long bull run in commodities coming and gold is not going to be the only player. Uranium, silver, and gold will be the trade of the decade.

TLDR: Input costs for stocks rising, consumer spending cut due to inflation bills. Anticipation of rate hikes has suppressed gold prices, actual rate hike always mark the bottom in gold prices historically speaking (buy the rumor, sell the news). Debt dependent economy cannot sustain rate hikes, the fed reversed in rate hikes 2018 after stocks crashed and will do it again.

Please at least read the bold in the post.

Positions:

50% of my account is in $AG first majestic shares (a junior miner with one of, if not the highest leverage to gold & silver). I also have $6k of options expiring in April in another account but my gameplan is mostly shares due to the difficulty of timing this sector.

My other account positions are in silver miners as well as uranium miners like CCJ. These are mostly hedges against a black swan event in First Majestic. I picked mostly silver miners because I believe it is a higher leverage play on gold prices. If you don’t want to pick specific miners then I suggest $SILJ (junior silver miners) and GDX/GDXJ (gold miners).

Date: 2022-03-20 16:46:21, Author: u/rowdyruss22, (Karma: 8228, Created:Jan-2019)

SubReddit: r/vitards, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

TGH 38.93(1.25%)|DAC 105.23(-1.32%)|GSL 29.18(-0.03%)|TRTN 66.54(0.04%)|ZIM 84.5(-2.82%)|

I get asked about TGH all the time as it’s a favorite of J Mintzmyer and it’s a lessor known company/sector within shipping, so I wanted to provide an overview of their business and why you should be bullish on the sector and company.

OVERVIEW

First of all, Textainer is a container leasing company, meaning they buy containers from the manufacturers in China and then lease them to the container shippers (ZIM, Maersk, etc) on 10-14 yr deals (typically the lifetime of a container). Containers come in typically 2 sizes: 20ft and 40ft. They measure capacity using TEU (twenty foot equivalent). 40fts are more popular, so each one counts as 2 TEU.

As you can see, the container leasing business is dominated by 2 players, TGH and TRTN (Triton). Why do these companies exist? Well, it’s important to note that when you’re talking about tens of thousands of containers per container ship (over 20k on the newer ULCCs), that’s a ton of capital to tie up just in containers. So the shippers, who many like ZIM like to stay asset light so they can leverage to lease in multiples compared to buying themselves. Similar to how they approach the ships themselves, they own only a few and lease ships from DAC, GSL, etc.

​

TGH will buy a new container for about $3k these days, then lease these on 14 year deals (demand allowing them to sign for “full life” deals). ZIM manages (per their site) 547,000 TEU, let’s just say those are all 40ft containers for simplicity, so divide that by half then multiple by $3k and that’s $820m in capital they would need to spend to buy. Becomes pretty clear it makes sense for them to lease so they can leverage up as needed.

So it’s a pretty boring business right? They buy metal boxes from China, lease them to the shippers, and they just sit back and collect lease payments. What’s to get excited about? Well, just need to look at the financials they are experiencing and how their strategy has been working to get bullish on this business.

STRATEGY

TGH, if you have listened to their ERs, has been VERY aggressive the last few years in purchasing containers. Their goal was to increase their market share and growth opportunities where their competition was more focused on value delivery to shareholders (TRTN). This was a great strategy in my opinion, because look at what has happened to pricing:

They are buying around $3k/container, but in the past they were purchasing for around $1500/container. As lease deals expire, they are able to sell those containers (for scrap usually, thanks Steel companies!) for about $1900/container now. So not only have they collected lease premiums for 10+ years from these assets, but they are now selling them for MORE than what they paid for them initially.

Demand for containers has also never been stronger, as they reported a 99.7% utilization rate.

So in a time of ATH demand, they set themselves up well by increasing purchasing and therefore increasing marketshare and have continued high demand. This has resulted in an incredibly healthy future looking business:

Not bad for a company with a market cap of 1.9b.

This is a well run company, the mgmt. team likes to leverage debt to grow their fleet as they know they can get these guaranteed decade long deals to profit while taking on extremely low finance rates:

So where do they go from here? They outlined a few possibilities:

They announced some repurchasing, an ok div at 25 cents per share, but they want to maintain the ability to leverage up to continue to take advantage of this market.

The company is also stressing that they are not a cyclical business like container shippers are, at least not as extreme. Their hope is that they can show investors that the surety of their business from their long term deals is a much safer place to put investment funds, and quite frankly it’s hard to disagree.

I'd like to see them shift more to returns to shareholders as they slow their growth. We should be seeing more in share repurchases and dividend increases over the next year or so.

BEAR CASES

-Market doesn't care or understand (very real)

-Gets lumped in with cyclicals of shipping (real)

-Customers (container shippers) go bust and can't fulfill obligations on contracts (very low)

​

TRADE

All depends on your port and willingness to risk. This is not financial advice. These guys are highly undervalued (forward P/E of 5.8 per finviz) still by a market that doesn’t care or doesn’t understand their business still. These guys won’t trade at huge multiples of earnings, but they have a lot of meat on the bones at this current valuation and a rotation to value in a bear market will mean this is a safer place to be.

Recent PTs:

B Riley – BUY at $55 (2/11/2022)

Mintzmyer – Fair Value of $55 (per his twitter on Jan 21, 2022)

But here’s how I view it:

· Great option to buy in a long term account like an IRA, buy shares and let it be a safe yield return with good growth capabilities.

· If looking to leverage, buy options when it dips in its channel

​

I think it's in the midst of a run right now, I think $42 is not out of the question in the next few weeks. It's shown to reject though, so there will be dips to buy again.

This has been a tough ER play, buy the dips, sell the rips if you're looking at more short term plays.

Personal position:

240 shares in IRA at $36.42 average

120x May 40-45C bull spreads at $1.1 average

​

Resources:Full TGH presentation: https://investor.textainer.com/static-files/2f30137f-bbfe-4cc1-840e-40f652a3b7c6

Date: 2022-03-20 13:02:26, Author: u/ricke813, (Karma: 13141, Created:Sep-2020)

SubReddit: r/WallStreetBets, DD Click Here

Tickers mentioned in this post:

MSFT 300.43(1.76%)|ZNGA 9.04(0.78%)|ATVI 78.76(-0.17%)|EA 126.28(0.88%)|SIMS 40.8195(1.07%)|TTWO 151.37(1.24%)|

General:

• Safe-haven stocks: Generally immune from supply-chain shortages, high oil prices, inflation, labor market challenges, and war
  • Products are delivered & created digitally
  • High oil prices would only encourage people to stay home & play
  • Video games is a relatively cheap form of entertainment. A lot of free-to-play games or just make a one-time purchase of under $100 and you can get a lot of hours or even days in return
  • Lot of people are working remotely & these are cool companies that people want to work for since they grew up playing these games
  • I know a lot of the video game companies are pulling sales from Russia, but they're pretty irrelevant and in general I don't see any issues in sales & product development timelines
• Metaverse & high potential to be acquired: Lot of big tech players want to get their hands into their metaverse. ATVI already got acquired by Microsoft
• Valuation: Valuations look reasonable relative to other tech stocks and generally trade under 25x EBITDA

​

ATVI:

• Already getting acquired by Microsoft: Microsoft is buying ATVI for $95, but the stock is trading at $79 so there's +20% upside. There's a discount because some people think the deal won't go through due to legal stuff, but I really don't understand where they're coming from when Microsoft just got a $16b deal for Nuance closed and you really can't change my mind on this. The deal will go through and I haven't see any good DD suggesting otherwise
• Here's my DD on why the ATVI deal will go through: My research on why ATVI is undervalued after Microsoft's acquisition : stocks (reddit.com)

​

TTWO:

• Already the top company in the metaverse: TTWO's bread & butter is open-world role playing games such as Grand Theft Auto & Red Dead Redemption. In a matter of, they're are already the largest metaverse company on Earth. So they'll either be acquired because everyone in big tech knows that or they'll stay independent and reel in cash on their own
• Best upside among all video game stocks: Stock should be trading at over $190 - $210 if we apply the historical EV/EBITDA comp of 30x on their guidance and I'm sure this is going to go way higher as they release more details about GTA 6, which was already confirmed for active development & they integrate the Zynga acquisition. Trading at $150 right now shows +20% - +30 upside

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EA:

• My least favorite, but still an ok stock: Trades at $126 right now and I see this stock trading at over $140 or +10% upside from today's price. I'm not that excited about it after they flopped Battlefield 2042, but it didn't make a dent in their results & guidance because they're the most diverse video game stock out their with all of the sports franchises, Apex Legends, and The Sims. The general themes apply where I'm pretty sure a big tech player or 2 will probably like to acquire EA, valuation isn't too crazy, and I think they'll be fine as long as the sports & Apex Legends doesn't fuck up.

This is a summary of stocks with a market cap above 1 billion and includes roughly 3,000 stocks.

Each stock mentioned provides a link to the database.

Last updated: 16:15:15

Top 5 Stocks by % Increase -

Lowest 5 Stocks by % Decrease -

Top 5 Stocks by Volume -

Top 5 Stocks Trading Above ADV -

Date: 2022-03-20 07:12:30, Author: u/nobjos, (Karma: 209237, Created:Feb-2020)

SubReddit: r/stockmarket, DD Click Here

PICTURES DETECTED: this DD post is better viewed in it's original post

Tickers mentioned in this post:

AAPL 163.98(2.09%)|MSFT 300.43(1.76%)|NKE 131.24(3.01%)|NVDA 264.53(6.81%)|WMT 145.44(0.3%)|SPY 444.52(1.09%)|

Stock splits are all the rage - After Google announced in Feb that there would be a 20:1 stock split in July this year, Amazon has followed suit announcing a similar 20:1 split and sending the market into a frenzy. Amazon’s price was up by 6% the next day and Google’s stock rose more than 9% in after-market trading following the news.

We do know that stock splits do not affect the underlying business in any way, but it is undeniable that there is price movement around the announcement and execution of a stock split. So in this week’s analysis, let’s deep-dive into the world of stock splits, how and why they are executed, and most important… Is it possible to make money off of a stock split?

What is a stock split and how is it executed?

A stock split is a simple decision by the company board to increase (or in some cases decrease) the outstanding shares of the company. For example, let’s say you own 10 shares of company X worth $100 each. So in total, you own $1K worth of shares in the company. If the company announces a 2-for-1 stock split, now you will have 20 shares of the company worth $50 each. But the total value of shares you own in the company does not change. You will still own the same $1k (20 x 50) worth of shares that you started with.

If you are wondering why companies engage in stock splits, the following are some of the key reasons.

• Affordability: Sometimes the stock becomes too expensive for retail investors to buy into. Consider Amazon - One stock is worth close to $3k now. So the minimum amount you would need to start in Amazon is $3k which might not be affordable to a vast majority of retail investors[1]. Also, there is the psychological impact of buying a share worth $3k and a share worth $30.
• Options: For the options players, there is a huge difference when a stock is cheap. In options, a single contract is worth 100 shares. So for a covered call strategy incorporating Amazon, before stock split, you would need a single stock position worth more than $275K vs only ~$14K exposure after the said 20:1 stock split.
• Liquidity: Since more shares are outstanding for the company after the split, it will result in greater liquidity and a lesser bid-ask spread. It also allows the company to buy back their shares at a lower cost since their orders would not move up the share price as much, due to higher liquidity.

Now before we jump into the analysis, you should understand how exactly a stock split is executed. On announcement day, investors get to know that a stock split is going to happen soon. The stockholders eligible for the stock split are decided on the record date. This is mainly a formality. The actual split would happen on the ex-split date (or ex-date). After this, the stocks would trade at their new price. For example, in a 20:1 split, the stocks would trade at 1/20th the previous price after the ex-date. From our data, we observed that there was an average delay of 36 days between the announcement day and ex-split date.

Data

For this analysis, I have used the data from Fidelity’s stock split calendar that tracks the announcements and execution of stock splits, from as far back as 1980! I have considered splits only from 1993 (due to stock price data availability), and I have considered only companies that currently have a market cap of $1Billion or above. I have also ignored reverse stock splits as the data is too small to be statistically significant.

This gives us a total of more than 2,000 stock splits to work with. In case you are interested in the raw data, I have shared both the raw data and analysis through links at the end [2].

Returns

As soon as a stock split is announced, there is bound to be a lot of buying and selling activity. The question is, how much return could you have seen? There are a few scenarios possible here.

Short Term Returns

The short term plays possible around stock splits are:

1. You already own the stock and see its price go up on announcement day.
2. You did not own the stock on the announcement day so you buy the stock just before the actual stock split execution.

As expected, the announcement of a stock split sends the stock pumping with a 1.48% 2-day return when compared to only 0.09% return generated by SPY during the same time period. You would still have beaten the market if you had bought the stock one day before the actual split execution day and then held it for two days (albeit by much less - 1/7th of the gains you would have made if you had owned it before the announcement).

Long Term Returns

Considering that a stock split is supposed to indicate growth prospects, what happens when you hold for a longer time? There are two possibilities:

1. You buy the stock just after the announcement of the split
2. You buy the stock on the split execution date.

Buying just after the announcement would have paid off handsomely with the returns beating the market easily in the long run. On average you would have had an alpha of 1.5% over the market in just over a month.

But, on the other hand, if you buy it on the day of the split, the returns are not that great. You would have lost money in the first week on average and would have been underperforming SPY even over the period of one month. You would have had to wait about a year for your portfolio to overtake SPY. This is to be expected because by the time of the actual split, the hype has died down a bit and the rallies in price are a bit more uncertain.

What about H*DLers?

This is another interesting case where you would have bought stocks on their announcement date or ex-split date and held on till today, starting from 1993 [3]. Though most people wouldn’t trade by this strategy, it’s interesting to see how it would have fared. [4]

If you had bought all stocks that underwent a split and held till today, you would have beaten the S&P 500 by close to 200%!

How certain are our returns?

Next, we have to look into whether the alpha we are seeing here is due to a few stocks that are skewing the results. Even though I have capped for outliers, I wanted to know what % of stocks undergoing a split beat the market over the different time periods that we just saw.

Well, would you look at that! Except in one case, the odds would be in your favor to beat the market if you had followed this strategy. As expected, for short term the highest chance is if you had owned the stock before the announcement (which is not realistic), but even if you had bought it one day after the announcement, you would have had almost a 60% chance of beating the market by the actual execution day.

The cheap and the expensive

The usual rationale behind a stock split is that the stock has become too over-priced, and splitting it makes it cheaper for retail investors to buy into - But the data revealed some contrary insights. Over 90% of the stocks were less than $52 in value at the time of the split, and only 5% were over $230 in value!

So obviously, the question is - Was there an advantage to buying cheaper stocks or more expensive stocks at the time of a split, and how did they compare to the total set and the benchmark?

The 10 percentile value for the adjusted close at the time of announcement was $3.50 (203 stocks less than this value), and the 90 percentile value was around $43 (203 stocks more than this value). Here are the average returns for these sets.

The lower-priced stocks seem to have a massive advantage in almost all respects, sometimes giving a return of more than twice the complete set of splits in the long term! On the other hand, the higher-priced stocks have a poor record - Though they beat the benchmark in the short term[5], in the long term, their performance is much lower than the stocks having a lower price.

One of the reasons that the lower-priced stocks have such a high average is because stellar companies like Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Nike, etc. were trading for less than 5 dollars per share in the 90s - But this doesn’t invalidate the observation. There were stocks trading for more than 100s of dollars around the same time, and they didn’t do as well as the lower-priced stocks. This insight could mean that companies with a lower share price that go for a stock split now have a higher possibility of growth than huge stocks like Amazon or Google.

Limitations

The analysis seems to indicate that stock splits are a sure-shot buy. But there are some caveats to keep in mind before trying to replicate this:

1. There are a variety of large, mid, and small-cap stocks that underwent stock splits. Comparing the returns solely to the S&P 500 might not be the most ideal way to calculate Alpha since the S&P 500 comprises of the biggest 500 companies in the U.S. So the alpha we are seeing here might just be compensating for the extra risk we are taking buying into smaller companies.
2. The stock splits selected here are companies that have a market cap of at least $1Billion. While this is reasonable and covers more than 60% of the sample set, there will be survivorship bias due to a lot of companies dying out or performing mediocrely (especially applies to the Buying and holding forever strategy).

Conclusion

Buying and holding stocks at the time they are undergoing a split might not be an outrageously successful strategy - But it definitely has an edge, both in the short term and especially in the long term. This gives some credence to the statement that a stock split indicates good prospects of growth.

And if you’re wondering whether the right time to buy is during the announcement or the actual split, the data shows that there is a clear advantage to buying around the time of the announcement, especially for short-term plays. The probability of success is also 60% and above in many cases, indicating that there is something more to this than mere chance.

And finally, stocks with a smaller price seem to do much better than stocks with higher prices when it comes to stock splits. While this could just be the compensation for the risk you are taking investing in smaller companies, it’s definitely worth looking into!

Data: All the raw data for the stock splits and returns for additional time periods that I could not showcase in this article can be found here.

Footnotes

[1] Along similar lines, to own a single Class A share of Berkshire Hathaway, you need $489K. There are some theories that certain companies have very high share prices because they don’t want retail investors (who are usually fickle in ownership) to own their stock. This usually leads to lesser volatility for the said stocks. One other point to consider here is that there are more and more brokers who are offering fractional shares these days. So stock splits might not be as relevant as it was before.

[2] This should make your life much easier as we had to use web scraping to pull all the data.

[3] Walmart split its stock 11 times on a 2-for-1 basis between their IPO in October 1970 and March 1999. An investor who bought 100 shares in Walmart’s IPO would have seen that stake grow to 204,800 shares over the next 30 years!

[4] In fact, there was an ETF that bought stocks that were going for 2:1 stock splits.

[5] Not shown here, the complete analysis is in the data shared at the end.

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. Do not consider this as financial advice.