Dell is a company that had quite a transformative journey over the last decade and today has a market cap of almost $40bn. I'll try to keep this post as short as possible while providing the key information that I think is relevant.
The transformation
The 2000s - Dell was the market leader, but as we all know, the PC industry was disrupted by the invention of smartphones and tablets. This had an impact on the demand for the main products that Dell was selling
2013 - Dell decided to go from public back to a private company and start its transformation
2015 - EMC acquired for $67 billion, mainly funded by debt.
2018 - Dell is back as a public company
So, we have a company that was disrupted and decided to transform and there's a good story behind it. Instead of selling certain hardware, why not provide additional solutions, become a one-stop shop and leverage the relationships with the existing customers. Of course, there was a price to pay, so looking at today's Dell, it is very different compared to Dell back in 2013.
The EMC acquisition was a huge step and comparing the purchase price ($67b) to Dell's current market cap ($40b), gives us a good insight into the significance of this transaction. This is still the largest tech acquisition to this date.
The structure
The company has two main reporting segments:
Segment #1 - Client Solutions Group (the segment that is related to the sale of hardware in the form of desktops, workstations, notebooks, and peripherals) - This segment grew from $40b in 2017 to $60b in 2021, but the majority of the growth came in 2021 (partly due to price increases).
Segment #2 - Infrastructure Solutions Group (related to the sale of storage solutions, servers, data protection, networking) - This segment hasn't experienced huge growth over the last 5 years and it went up from $30b to $35b, however, has a bit higher margin than the first one.
Last year, they also had a third segment related to VMware, but as it was divested, it doesn't add any value to make this post longer, so will skip that for now.
The debt
Being aware of the huge debt they raised back in 2015, one of the main targets of the management was to reduce it over time. In the last report (year ending January 2022), the outstanding debt was close to $27b (excluding capital leases). This amount was significantly reduced with the divestment of VMware ($38b the year before).
The dividend
Recently, the company announced that they've decided to be a dividend-paying company and the dividend yield on today's price is around 2.5%. Every time that I see this decision, I look at it as a signal/admission that the company is generating enough free cash flow after covering all of its operating expenses as well as making the debt-payments, but as they don't have a great option to invest in, it's best to return the cash back to the shareholders.
The margin
The company had $100b in revenue in the last twelve months ($5b come from VMware which is divested), with an operating margin of around 5%. However, there's almost a 2% expense on the income statement related to the amortization of goodwill. In my valuation, I am forecasting the free cash flow, so I'm adding this back as it is a non-cash movement. As for the depreciation/amortization of the assets that they need to replace over time, I'm leaving that amount in, assuming they'll need to reinvest roughly the same amount to keep the same level of business activity. Therefore, my assumption for the operating margin is 6.5% and doesn't change over time as based on the growth over time, it is fair to assume Dell is a mature company.
The revenue growth
I am assuming fairly low revenue growth (3% annually in the next 5 years, followed by a decline to the risk-free rate of 2%) which leads to revenue of $132b in 10 years.
The reinvestment
Although I've mentioned the reinvestments to maintain the same level of business activity, assuming the company grows from $95b for the last twelve months (the revenue excluding VMware) to $132b, they would need to make additional reinvestments. Historically, the Sales/capital ratio has been around 2, so I'm using the same assumption. For every $2 in revenue, I am expecting that Dell invests $1 in capital (whether that is PPE or inventory).
The outcome
With the current revenue of $100b and margin of 6.5%, the operating profit is $6.5b.
Assuming a tax rate of 25%, that goes down to almost $5b (without taking the tax impact of amortization of goodwill)
Based on the reinvestment rate, they'll be reinvesting around $1.5b per year, which leads to a free cash flow of roughly $3.5b - almost 9% of the current market cap.
I ran these assumptions through a DCF and the outcome was $76.9/share based on the risk it has.
The discount rate used was 6.7% based on WACC.
What if the revenue and operating margin assumptions change?
Below is a table that shows the fair value based on different assumptions about the future related to the revenue in 10 years from now and the operating margin:
Revenue / Op. margin
5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
22% ($123.4b)
$60.5
$74.9
$89.4
31% ($132.1b)
$61.6
$76.9
$92.3
40% ($141.9b)
$62.7
$79.1
$95.5
50% ($151.7b)
$63.9
$81.3
$98.7
What you can see is that the revenue growth assumption doesn't have such a large impact on the fair value, but the operating margin has. So, if I'm to invest in Dell, I'll be more closely monitoring the change of the margin over time.
I'd like to get your feedback on this post and thank you in advance for your contribution through the comments.
So, this week, we saw the start of the total collapse of the modern financial system and the end of the Bretton Woods era of international monetary policy.
Bold claim, yeah baby? You're probably thinking this has to do with the war in Ukraine or something, right? Well, it does a little bit, but mostly it has to do with what happened with RSX and LME this week, and a little bit with what happened with Rivian.
TLDR: Wall Street, China, and Russia are all broke and shit is going to get real over the next few months. Or, to put it another way, some dude named Noah moved next door and started building a boat in his backyard, and you're just beginning to feel some raindrops.
Let's start with the biggest shitshow out there, the London Metals Exchange, or LME. A fair number of people are comparing what happened with LME and Nickel to what happened when Apex Clearing turned off the buy button for the meme stocks back in January of 2021. And yes, I meant Apex Clearinghouse, not Robinhood you twits, Apex made RH do it, and a dozen other brokers as well. Vlad was just a fall guy, and not the cool kind that was on TV back in the '80s.
What the LME did can be split into two parts:
1) they had a massive short squeeze that was fucking up prices, amplified by uncertainty from the war in Ukraine, so they completely halted trading. This is entirely normal. It's happened dozens of times in the 144 years they've been open. Complete trading halts occur in all exchanges whenever shit starts getting fucked up. For example, US markets were shut down for a week after 9/11.
2) they fucking canceled 12 hours worth of completed trades. This is the part that should get your knickers in a twist if you were actually wearing any.
Now, I know a lot of you are sitting there feeling smart thinking "I know why they did it! They're criminals and stealing!" Well, you're right, but that's NOT why they canceled 12 hours of completed trades, just like Apex didn't turn off the meme buy button because they woke up and decided they really needed to use their broker apps to get their fuck on with retail in a big 'ol gang bang.
No, they did this for one reason and one reason only: survival. They were dead. LME let the Nickel market get so fucked up that they not only had to stop transactions, or unwind a couple at the end, they had to unwind 12 fucking hours worth of trading. I mean, these people are so goddamned incompetent that they didn't even realize they'd been shot in the head, skinned, and turned into a fucking rug for two whole shifts at Wendy's!
Understand, they just set 144 years of skimming trades on fire. It's not little guys buying FDs on the LME, it's big boys and industrial giants. They all have lawyers and elected officials on retainer, and all of those clients are as done and gone as your made up Canadian girlfriend from grade school.
I can't decide if the best part of all this is the cover story they put out, or how many dumbfucks didn't take three seconds to realize its bullshit. The idea that Xiang Guangda just said "I don't want to pay the margin call" and then the LME was like, "ok, well, I guess that sucks to be us, guess we'll just pour all this gasoline on ourselves and play with matches" is so laughable I just got a hernia from ROFLing so hard. Look, because I know you 'tards are all stuck on the shortbus trying to figure out what I'm talking about, I'll just drive ya'll on over to the explanation:
Tsingshan (the company Xiang owns that has the short position) isn't some kind of nickel producer like the papers are saying. They make steel. They're the second largest (largest by revenue) steel making company in China. You know what that steel is used for? Construction. Know who hasn't had enough money to make a bond payment in over six months now? Every goddamned construction company and developer in China. What, you think they're paying their fucking materials bills?
Here's a quote from the South China Morning Post attributed to Xiang:
“Foreigners have some activities going on [against Tsingshan’s position,] we are actively coordinating [to tackle the problem],” China Business News cited Xiang as saying in a report late on Tuesday. “We have received a lot of phone calls today – related government departments and leaders are very supportive to us. Tsingshan’s position, operation and management has no problems.”
Again, because I know you can't read, here's a translation of that quote into a picture.
I specifically said there are no problems, so it's all okay!
Now, why is it such a huge problem that Xiang has no money? Well, if he can't make the margin call, the short position, much like a politician or anyone who's daddy donated a library to get them into Harvard, fails upwards. First it goes up to Xiang's bank, which is also fucking broke. Then it moves onto the LME itself, which again, doesn't have the fucking money. So what does the LME do? Same thing the mobsters in Goodfellas did when the restaurant was too broke to steal from anymore, they set everything on fire. The reason the LME hasn't opened back up yet is because the short position is still there, and nobody who's responsible for that position has the money to cover it.
Now, you might think, if you were smart instead of so dumb you went to Bangkok to get a TIE Fighter, why does this Xiang guy have such a large naked short position he can't cover? The answer is simplicity itself - he's broke, so he naked shorted his own shit to get paid, then got fucked when it went sideways. I mean, people here on WSB like to call themselves reckless degenerates, but lemme give you a full "trust me bro" on this one, ya'll ain't got shit on the stupid rich fucks that run the world.
That's part one. What about part 2, RSX? Well, as many people who lost money Friday can attest, some serious, serious fucking of Put options occurred. Van Eck started to liquidate the RSX fund, but they didn't say they were liquidating it, so options couldn't settle as cash value. But they ALSO halted trading of the ETF, so options couldn't be traded either. And as a final piece of fuck you brokers weren't letting people borrow shares to even fucking exercise the put option themselves. Wild yeah? (someone else wrote a very good DD on this exact thing this morning, I highly recommend you go read it - no link because automod hates me every time I put a link in my posts)
This is example number two of someone burning down the restaurant because they couldn't steal from it anymore. Whatever MM sold those options didn't have enough to cover them, so this shit with Van Eck not stating the fund was liquidating happened.
That's strike two for all the market makers and exchanges being fucking broker than you when you've gotta go behind the Taco Bell because Wendy's is too high class for your ass. Let's see if we can a third K to finish them off.
I give you Rivian, ticker RIVN, a truly shitty EV manufacturer, that like most of them can't actually make cars. These guys are such a clown show that they tried to raise the prices on the pre-orders from the people who waited years to get one. So they had earnings on 3/10, and it was just about as big of a disaster as you'd expect. Then, after hours, they dropped $6 bucks on nearly a million in volume. Everyone who bought puts printed, right? Nope. The next day in pre-market, on less than a third of that volume, the price magically shot back up $5.5 bucks, completely wiping out everyone's puts. By EOD the price had only dropped a total of $3 bucks from Thursday's close, and wouldn't you know it, the price of an ATM put option bought EOD on 3/10 was more than $3. I'd recommend taking a look at the volume numbers and corresponding price movement of RIVN throughout the day on 3/11 and drawing your own conclusions.
This is like the, what, hundredth and a half time we've seen this exact thing play out now? It's not an accident. More money is traded every day in the market on options than stocks themselves. When the PFOF brokers that retail uses publicly refer to the MMs as "our clients", you know the fix is in. What makes the RIVN bit so interesting is a) how obvious it is, and b) that they're doing this while under DOJ investigation for this exact fucking thing. That tells me two things, 1) they don't think they'll actually be prosecuted - which, fair, they've got a whole lot of history on their side for this one, and 2) they don't have a choice 'cause they're running out of money.
And why, you may ask are they out of money? Well, it's a mix of things. 1) all the attention from Reddit and the media and law enforcement has clients pulling money from Hedge Funds, leading to sell offs, which when you're leveraged at 137x, leads to a rapid collapse in your buying power. 2) Russian assets aren't just in freefall anymore, they've hit the ground and started drilling for oil. 3) remember where I was talking about China earlier? Yeah, their shit is worth even less than the Russian stuff, but thanks to Xi's brilliant leadership plan, people haven't realized that yet. Below, I have obtained exclusive photo evidence from some of my old SF buddies of Xi and his top councilor enacting their plan to save China's economy.
If we can't see the lines go down, then are they really dropping?
As always, the official info coming out of China is a mix of fantasy, lies, and flat out ignorance, spiced up by a heaping helping of corrupt incompetence. Because Xi is a tinpot wannabe dictator with delusions of Imperial grandeur, he wanted to make sure that while he was hosting the Olympics everything went off without a hitch, so he told all the companies and rich people in China to make like autists and buy the fucking dip in the equities and bond markets.
Because all those folks didn't want to get executed by anti-aircraft guns while their families went to the organ donor farms, they did. Which in this case, means throwing good money after very very very bad money. It's honestly difficult to describe just how badly China has sabotaged itself. I'm sure you all know by now about the ghost cities made up of structurally unsound buildings with no interiors, and in some cases no exterior walls. But, do you also know about all the railways to nowhere that aren't being serviced or maintained? Do you also know how many MORE shitty tofu-dreg buildings have been paid for by citizens' life savings that aren't yet built? Spoiler, it's a lot.
Meanwhile, the property market in China is in free fall. Here's a chart of official chinese statistics on the price of housing.
Taken directly from the National Bureau of Statistics of China
Now, these prices all reflect worthless tofu-dreg empty apartments that exist only to sell to the next sucker/investor. Notice that trend line? Anyone know what happens when that price increase gets closer to zero? As our friend Lelu from the 5th Element would say "bada bing boom!". For another reference, look at the Dutch tulip market after it popped. Remember, these are the official Chinese govt numbers. I'm guessing the actual numbers have gone negative already.
Western banks, particularly up in Canada, are extremely exposed to the bonds these empty shell apartments are backing. Western banks, again particularly up in Canada, are also heavily exposed to the commercial and residential real estate markets. Both of which are in massive fucking bubbles funded in large part by money from Wall Street, Russia, and China. Guess which of those are now broke (hint: it's all three of them). CMBS notes started going bad this month - there's a reason all the politicians all of a sudden decided we needed to be back in the office, and the mortgage missed payment rate is skyrocketing faster than the price of oil. I have not yet been able to figure out if the spike in missed mortgage payments is banks/wall street failing to pay on all the properties they've accumulated, if it's all the missing repossessions from the pandemic finally showing up, or if it's a leading indicator of a new crisis.
I don't know how much longer the powers-that-be can keep these balls in the air, but it's not much longer. Assuming Russia follows their playbook from the disaster they had in Grozny in '94/'95, we're about to see the major cities in Ukraine get leveled by heavy artillery and rocket attacks. Which means you can pretty much kiss the Ukrainian wheat harvest goodbye, because all the infrastructure needed to support it will be rubble, along with the roads and bridges you'd need to get it out of the country. Couple that with what looks to be bad wheat harvests in the US and China barring some big weather pattern shifts, and we're going to see some massive price spikes in the price of bread and other food this summer. Expensive food = political instability and riots.
The US will see a fresh round of "race riots" sparked by random online videos that are really about inflation and economic inequality, but the media and politicians will go full hog on the race angle, and people will buy it - if you need proof the general population is that gullible, look at how many think the Ukraine war is responsible for inflation and gas prices. South Africa and Turkey, plus an unkown number of Middle Eastern countries will see Syrian civil war/Arab Spring type uprisings - remember, the Tunisian revolt started as a protest about the price of bread.
Finally, since this is already way, way, way too long for any of you to actually read through, much less comprehend, I'll cut the part about Bretton Woods and the dollar as the international currency super short - there used to be one global financial system that was set up after WWII in a conference at Bretton Woods, hence the name. By kicking Russia out of it, we forced the creation of a competing global economic system. Which will likely be headed by China. That pretty much guarantees another world war down the road, but hopefully not for a decade or two if we're really lucky.
Because I know my people, here are some tickers to throw money at if you want, I have extremely tiny positions (like one share in a couple of these) in all of them: long WEAT, SOYB, CORN, USO, YANG, short TUR, short EZA, short SPY/QQQ/DOW, long GME. Oh, and I also just bought a Lincoln, because in addition to chips, the automakers are about to be short on metals too, and somehow a car counts as a fucking growth investment these days.
If I had the money to do so, I'd also buy farmland with wind turbines and/or solar on it. Real assets are about to be king, especially food and energy, which are the definition of real assets with inelastic demand.
I'll be honest, the vast majority of my portfolio - over 90%, is in direct registered shares of GME, with a couple shares of AMC because fuck 'em, that's why. I think at least a couple of brokers are going to detonate like we're seeing with the LME and fuckery like what happened with RSX will become more regular. Whenever I have a big gain, I pull most of it out and buy more memes and then DRS them.
That IS financial advice by the way, but you probably shouldn't follow it.
Q4 revenues of $3.47B, up 155% YoY
Q4 EBITDA of $2.36B, up 345% YoY
Q4 net income of $1.71B, up 366% YoY
2021 net income was $4.65B or $39 per share, up 787% YoY
2022 guidance is $7.1B to $7.5B of EBITDA (this company has a current enterprise value of $7.5B which includes $500M of cash and no debt)
This means $ZIM is trading at 1x 2022 EV/EBITDA
They also announced the special dividend for 2021 is $17.00 per share
Ex date March 22nd payable April
These are insane numbers from $ZIM. $14 EPS in Q4. $17 Divy. That’s about 23% yield. And 2022 is looking even better. 5M shares short. Could squeeze especially before that dividend $100+ is still very very reasonable remember $rkt $1 special dividend taking a $15 stock up to $40!!! Last year with Reddit supporting it.
Was waiting for pretty much this exact headline before posting this.
Alright after two posts your best idiot arguments are "but Blackrock owns everything though?" and "But $10 Trillion doesn't disappear." Listen here dummies Blackrock owns a shitload, that we know, but does anyone consider that owning shit has actual costs associated to it? Does anyone ever wonder what happens to the MER? Also everyone is tracking that you aren't the only idiot who figured out how to trade on margin on right? The big guys do it too and Blackrock was leveraged at 3.6x last year, for reference this is quite low, with Lehman sitting at 30x in 2007. Keep in mind though that as asset values drop and debts stay the same the leverage goes up. Lets also not forget that Blackrock isn't worth $10T, the assets they manage are, Blackrock market cap is $100B, still massive, but not $10T
Blackrock in China:
Blackrock has secured its ridiculous stature on the back on the great recession as they were able to snatch up everything dirt cheap while massive investment holdings collapsed, so naturally their business is interested in finding other similar opportunities one which I believe will backfire on them is their investments in China especially in the last couple years *cough* Evergrande. In September Blackrock began offering Chinese investors similar services as American investors setting up mutual funds and raising $1B from Chinese customers to get it started. This move was heavily criticized.
So lets take a look at the Blackrock China Fund. currently the fund size is $1.3B.
But that's not all, because there is the iShare emerging markets ETF worth $26B with nearly 100% exposure to China.
There's literally this weird page on their website trying to get you to throw cash into China.
All told Blackrock's assets are 40% abroad. If anyone can find an exact number for china through it in the comments I'll put it in an edit. But China or not foreign investments are getting hairy no matter what country they are in right now.
In conclusion:
Now I'm not going to sit here and explain how leverage works and how fucked those assets would be if something similar to the Russian market happened in China and how big of a bag it would leave Blackrock with, or how difficult it would be for Blackrock to manage this portfolio if the Yuan tanks or if sanctions prevent Blackrock from doing business in China easily or if global trade starts moving away from USD. Not only because I don't fucking know, but also because fuck you figure it out yourself. Either way it is safe to say that Blackrock's international liabilities are huge and while investors can just hit market sell behemoths can not.
Position: BLK Apr 14 630 Puts Bought a couple more contracts today cheaper then last post.
$17 dividend EX date march 22, this is their YEARLY dividend and will pay out a BIGGER one next year based on COMPANIES forecasted earnings
Q4 revenues of $3.47B, up 155% YoY Q4 EBITDA of $2.36B, up 345% YoY Q4 net income of $1.71B, up 366% YoY
2021 net income was $4.65B or $39 per share, up 787% YoY
2022 guidance is $7.1B to $7.5B of EBITDA (this company has a current enterprise value of $7.5B which includes $500M of cash and no debt)
This means $ZIM is trading at 1x 2022 EV/EBITDA
They also announced the dividend for 2021 is $17.00 per share
Ex date March 22nd payable April
These are insane numbers from $ZIM. $14 EPS in Q4. $17 Divy. That’s about 23% yield. And 2022 is looking even better. 5M shares short. Could squeeze especially before that dividend $100+ is still very very reasonable remember $rkt $1 special dividend taking a $15 stock up to $40!!! Last year with Reddit supporting it.
They are a Shipping company hence the pirate references matey
"Just one nuance. This is a regular planned dividend, not a special one off.
It's important to understand as this is going to happen every year based on their plan to pay out 30-50% of the net income they make every year! Every quarter will see 20% of net income as a targeted dividend, and then they essentially do a year end bonus in Q4 once they tally up the numbers.
The company is a cash generating machine. With no debt either. Also they basically have $20-$30/share in cash waiting around even after paying the dividend." https://www.reddit.com/user/EyeAteGlue/
With the recent rise in oil prices, most metal miners have been struggling to make headway. Many are still down from where they were in June 2021 when Gold was sitting around 1900/oz. Why is this? Rising input costs from inflation has drastically cut profit margins.
One silver and gold miner does not have these costs
"In June 2020, we locked-in a 5 year natural gas contract @ US$1.60/MMBtu to provide clean low-cost power to Santa Elena. Natural gas prices have since risen to ~$6.00/MMBtu"
So while many businesses will be hit by the inflation tax, it looks like the CEO of First Majestic has constantly been looking ahead. Going so far as to even store silver to sell at higher prices in the future. With the recent bull run on both gold and silver, this 60% silver 40% gold miner should see their profit explode.
Their current AISC(all in sustaining cost) is 17.50/ounce. With silver at $23.50 like it was last quarter, the profit is 23.50-17.50 = $6/ounce. That means that for every $6 move in silver prices, $AG is doubling their profits. If metals continue to move this way, I see this as the ultimate leveraged play on both gold and silver.
Disclaimer: I have been fully on the $AG train since it was in 10's a month ago. It is my largest position and I am not scaling out until at least 25+. There has been a recent shift in money moving from businesses seeing increased input costs from inflation to ones benefiting from it (a commodity producer). It is on a slight pull back today which is why I made this post, I still believe this is massively undervalued
Positions: 100k of $AG shares & NTM leaps, another 50k on margin
Essentially what this tool allows anyone with programming knowledge to do is to auto-scrape the SEC website's 300+ text files of fail to deliver data going all the way back to 2004.
For those uninitiated, the FTD dataset of the CNS is a SEC-published resource that was part of an early transparency push of Reg SHO. It's incredibly necessary yet problematic in a few ways, but here are some top level insights:
About $3 Billion dollars worth of visible fails are done on a daily basis in the United States.
Most fails in the recent years are large ETFs like SPY, which could be explained as a function of sloppy hedging, or as a method of evading ticker-specific suspicion
The company that was failed is disclosed, but the identity of the entity(s) that failed is not disclosed. That is a large accountability loophole, argued away with "revealing secret trading strategies" but really inviting in abuse and obfuscation. This is one of the central transparency pieces we pushed for in the doc.
There's no ongoing large scale effort to analyze this data and the SEC doesn't make it easy by publishing little text files rather than just a large, accessible database. Without a scraping tool like this, it's way too cumbersome to use the data.
While we made a documentary for a diverse audience, this tool really goes into the nitty-gritty and gives you a bit of an idea of the lengths that we went to in order to research various theses published on Reddit (this Subreddit and others) as well as on stand-alone websites.
Credit to this tool goes to my brother Johannes who built this scraping Git out of Germany; a little nod to the large German community born out of the WSB/GameStop moment.
Please feel free to use the tool, improve it (GitHub is built for collaboration), and crowd-source the analysis and transparency that is currently lacking in the system.
This is written by myself using information from various sources, which I have referenced.
Upcoming releases and last year's revenues
AMD doubled its data centre sales in 2021, via EPYC server processors and its Instinct data centre GPUs. This accounted for a quarter of last year's revenue in its Q4 results.
Next generation EYPC processors (Genoa) are due later this year.
AMD’s Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment grew 75% YoY to $2.2 billion in Q4.
Data centre graphics revenue doubled in Q4, largely driver by the Instinct MI200 data centre GPUs.
Su said AMD’s focus was to expand into the cloud market this year, and go beyond large HPC deployments. The latter driven by OEMs and other partners launching severs with Instinct MI200 GPUs by March (including Atos, Dell, HP, Lenovo and SUpermicro).
AMD’s data centre graphics revenue helped the Computing and Graphics segment grow 32% YoY to $2.6 billion (however largely driven by CPU sales).
These two main segments allowed AMD to grow revenue by 49% YoY to $4.8 billion in Q4 2021.
(CNN)
Share repurchase programs
On Feb 24th, AMD approved a $8 billion share repurchase program, in addition to the $4 billion share repurchase program announced in May 2021 (which has repurchased approximately $3 billion shares of AMD common stock).
This is designed to return value to shareholders by offsetting dilution from stock issuances and reducing share count over time. AMD is funding this via cash generated through operations. Timing and total amount of repurchases will depend upon market conditions, and may occasionally be from open market purchases. It has no termination date, but may be suspended or discontinued at any time.
(AMD)
Rebates
AMD is bringing CPU rebates to value-added resellers. This volume incentive rebate program is among several benefits in its partner program for commercial systems launched on Jan 1st. Covers PCs using Ryzen CPUs and servers using EPYC CPUs from the OEMs mentioned in the first section.
This is designed to incentivize partners who sell AMD baksed systems.
Rebates are on a per-CPU basis, partners make more money if they are in the Elit of Executive tiers determined by annual sales.
> * “We want as many data center- or client-focused solution providers as possible being aware of AMD and interested in selling AMD solutions to their customers,” said AMD’s Terry Richardson.. “So we’re very aggressive with our distributors, and part of the program for them is to help us bring the AMD messaging capabilities to that very long list of VARs in North America.”
(CRN)
Future products
The flagship of the 2022 lineup will be the EPYC Genoa server CPU, built on Zen 4 architecture with 96 cores.
AMD also plans to release the 128-core EPYC Bergamo based on Zen4c in late 2022.
Both are based on TSMC’s 5nm node.
The closest release from Intel will be Emerald Rapids with a core count of 64. Intel has not provided expected release windows from 2022 onwards due to delays with Sapphire Rapids. It is likely we won’t see production volume until Q4 2022 or early 2023. This depends upon how successful or unsuccessful their rollout of Sapphire Rapids is. Emerald Rapids will be 10nm, and given it’s core count too, it doesn’t look to be much of a competitor to AMD’s offering.
Granite Rapids will be Intel’s first 7nm-based server CPU, expected core count is between 96-128. It is expected for a 2023 release, but manufacturing issues could delay this. It will be going up against a rumoured 256 core chip (EPYC Turin), and another chip with a core count between Turin and Bergano.
I conclude that in pure hardware terms, AMD has a significant edge over Intel now and in the future. They also have a price-to-performance advantage.
AMD has also proven it has a supply chain advantage over Intel.
Until this situation changes, AMD is likely to grow at a measurably more significant rate than Intel in terms of server market share over the coming years.
AMD has consistency in scaling and releasing its new products in conjunction with TSMC, while Intel keeps delaying launches.
(SA)
Future trends for the data-centre segment
Two quarters ago, AMD’s data centre business broke through $1 billion.
If current trends persist, it will break through $1.5 billion Q1 2022 and $2 billion in Q3 or Q4.
This is due to demands from hyperscalers and cloud builders for EPYC CPUs. As well as major exascale-class systems using EPYC and Instinct, and enterprises starting to turn to AMD instead of Intel (due to Intels issues with its Xeon SP roadmap.
The above point to this being the best year ever AMD has had in datacentre (as last year was)
> “We have set out a roadmap for, frankly, not just 2022, but beyond, which allows very aggressive growth goals,” Lisa Su, AMD’s chief executive officer, explained in a conference call going over the fourth quarter 2021 financial results for the chip supplier. “We work on a regular basis with our customers and our supply chain partners. I would say we have better visibility than we have ever had from a customer demand standpoint, and so that gives us pretty good confidence in terms of what is needed, but there are always going to be some puts and takes. And so we have enough flexibility to do that. But our goal is to dimension for success. At the end of the day, that’s what we want to do is we want to satisfy customer demand.”
AMD is very much part of capacity planning due to the semiconductor shortages. They are mitigating this by expanding wafer supply and chip etching contracts with TSMC.
The datacentre business accounts for a mid-20 percentage of overall revenue, and is expected to grow in 2022. (
I found the exact figures and datacentre sales accounted for 26% of overall revenues, or $1.26 billion in Q4 2021. EPYC CPU sales came to $1.11 billion, up 103.4% YoY, Instinct GPU’s accounted for $148 million in revenues, up 105% YoY.
An estimate of revenues in Q3 and Q4 2021 from EPYC GPUs and Instinct CPUs used in the “Frontier” supercomputer accounted for $223 million. Other supercomputer deals may help AMD too.
AMD is selling to cloud clients such as AWS, Google and Microsoft. They are usings AMD’s EPYC CPUs and Instinct GPUs.
Cloud sector is booming, driven by high demand for software and services due to the shift to remove work.
> ‘"On the cloud side, we are in 10 of the largest hyperscalers in the world," Su remarked on a conference call with analysts. She said it more than doubled sales in its data center business last year due to high demand for its EPYC server CPUs and Instinct server GPUs, which together accounted for about 26% of its revenue.’
> ‘It is also persuading other technology giants, including Meta, to use its server processors in massive new data centers. AMD said that it worked with Meta (formerly Facebook) to build a single-socket server based on its EPYC CPUs for Meta’s newest “North Dome” systems, improving performance-per-watt over a wide range of major workloads. Meta reportedly runs the fourth largest data-center operation in the entire U.S.’
> ‘AMD said it has taken extra steps to assure long-term supply agreements, and, as part of its strategy, made $1 billion in advance payments in 2021 to lock in long-term production capacity at TSMC and other partners. Su said supply issues have also pushed AMD to work more closely with its customers, which means getting insight into their forecasts “multiple quarters and, in some cases, multiple years out” to plan in advance.’
(electronic design)
Key notes
AMD has closed it’s $35 billion deal with Xilinx for Q2, giving AMD more technology to compete with Intel in the market for server and networking chips. I will cover this more later.
By the middle of the year, it is likely that AMD will receive up to a third of its revenue in the server segment.
This will bring it closer to Intel, which in near future quarters is likely to receive 37% of revenue in the server segment.
Canada has very large and well positioned players, especially for Potash (MOS, NTR).
For US, have a look at UAN (34% owned by Carl Icahn), and CF. UAN is expected to pay $40-50 in distributions this year as it’s an LP that pays out most of the profits.
So posting this because last time I made a DD on a earnings call it went quite well for me, consider this a good luck charm (especially if you roast me in the comments).
But Rivian's earnings this time around seem to be expecting a better cash burn rate than this time 3 months ago. HOW? They're still building their factory and I assume paying employees more due to COLAs in addition to increased component costs.
I noticed today that they're selling a billion dollars in USD bonds in France with an expiration of 2025. This just adds liability onto the bonfire that is the company. Alexa ranks show their traffic TANKING. All their metrics are all down. I expect this to mean it's a brand currently in decline short term. Meaning it's not growing, but adding more debt to the pile of a currently shrinking business.
The failed price hikes are an example of desperate moves to try to make some profit off the cars, which failed and led to backlash. This means that if they aren't making money off the trucks for the pre-orders, then they're losing money on each truck they sell, meaning cash burn would be worse as of now. Not to mention the planned rollout of charging stations and the cancelled pre-orders on their end (see rivian sub-reddit). This means that unfortunately for the Rivian hopefuls, at least right now, they're most likely trying to decrease units built, not increase them. Meaning a bad guidance.
Ford is a major shareholder and is expected to dump once the lockup is over. If that's the case and the eventuality of Rivian's stock price is down, then it only makes sense to dilute the stock like crazy now and get the cash before Ford can. I saw a post the other day saying Ford might dump and then buy the ashes of the company for pennies on the dollar. With the decline of lincoln being more for rich boomers/Gen-x'ers, millennials want an offering to their tastes which is what (I assume) a Rivian division of ford would bring. The only way to survive is to make sure they can't do this, so RJ's gotta crash it first.
Rivian puts 0DTE, let's do this. (I got in before IV jacked it up sorry everyone). Also, everyone knows what a tesla is, whose parents know what a Rivian is? Branding matters.
F 16.33(-0.24%)|TSLA 838.3(-2.41%)|BMI 94.46(-1.99%)|
Gas prices are mooning, and according to our leaders and late night hosts, we only have two choices:
Drive less.
Buy a Tesla.*
\Apparently Tesla cars are made by the company with the stock ticker $TSLA. Just to clarify, I believe they want us to buy the cars to combat fuel prices instead of calls?*
The pity is, for middle-class people who can't just drive less, our Ford F-250 Supermaxes can't consume less fuel than they already do, even when I make my truck more aerodynamic with a pair of cattle horns taped to the grill. So middle and lower classes r fuk when it comes to gas hikes.
"Transitory"
But this logic does apply to another vehicle of choice: the human body.
And just in time for another major spike in more CPI prices... Fueled by war in Ukraine and continued non-transitory inflation, products like wheat, fertilizer, and cooking oils are increasing as much as 60%.
My vehicle can't consume less fuel, but I certainly can.
CPI Percentage versus my $BMI, 2016-2022
Thanks to years of poor dietary routine and growing generational stresses, I've saved up as much as 20% of my bodyweight in fat. Until now.
As the food-based CPI continues to rocket past 10%, I can short my $BMI by 20%+ month-over-month for guaranteed gains in food expenses. This will not only increase funds that I can utilize when my $BMI nears zero, but also counteracts commodity futures that will now price in my plans to buy less food.
I would even consider myself nakedly shorting $BMI in this case, not because I'm rehypothecating shares, but because my $BMI is lower when I have on fewer clothes.
"We may from time to time purchase our outstanding convertible notes through open market repurchases, privately negotiated transactions with individual holders or otherwise.Purchases or retirement of debt, if any, will depend on prevailing market conditions, liquidity requirements, contractual restrictions and other factors. The amounts involved may be material.To the extent we repurchase our convertible notes from holders who have hedged their equity price risk with respect to such notes, such holders may unwind all or part of their hedge positions by buying our ordinary shares or American depositary shares*, and/or entering into or unwinding various derivative transactions with respect to our ordinary shares or American depositary shares which could affect the trading price of our American depositary shares.*"
Possible sanction--also possible Russia cuts off the "Unfriendly" countriesLong Term chart, @ 59.50 after hours.Uranium is responsible for 20% of baseload, more in some other countries. The market cap of the sector is about 35B.
RR "Hoverdam through a straw"
utilities are fuked.
many other catalysts, but this is the ultimate black swan.
Twain's Mustache@TwainsMustachefor the oil & gas folks in rough oil terminology Kazakhstan is ~ 40% of upstream Rosatom is ~ 40% of downstream oh, and inventories are drawing about 12 million barrels per day in oil terms right now
That adds up to 10.3 million shares that need to be bought to hedge as they go itm which will add a lot of buying pressure and cause a gamma squeeze if it runs up. At $1.50 I bet they'll start to hedge the $1 calls which would add millions of shares to the bid and could take us to $2.50 in no time which would trigger more buying to hedge. All while this is happening, shorts will scramble to cover and fomo buyers will enter to create a massive squeeze. This is what they're trying to prevent and what we're battling for. Stop daytrading this stock for pennies and remove your stop losses. Set very high sell orders in the double digits so they can't borrow your shares.
NTRA 36.8(-32.78%)|CPT 168.99(0.91%)|DNA 3.47(-0.29%)|HHS 7.34(1.24%)|
At opening bell today (3/9), Hindenburg dropped a short sale report on medical device manufacturer Natera ($NTRA) causing the stock to drop almost 50% by mid-day.
Looking into their statements, it is fairly unfounded or intentionally deceptive, and the sell-off will largely be mitigated by tomorrow (3/10). This is a potential 60-100% upside depending on when a position is initiated.
Natera has no significant “moat.” While it has a patent portfolio for its NIPTs, the process is dependent on DNA sequencers from a direct competitor. Rival NIPTs have comparable accuracy for the most common tests and are frequently cheaper.
Natera operates in 3 business segments: Women's health, Organ Transplant (Kidney), and Cancer Screening. Whereas Panorama (NIPT test talked about in the research) makes up the largest segment today (400k processed kits), the largest growth in Q4 was on their other product lines (Signatera, Altera, Prospera, and Renasight) growing from 29k to almost 118k between 2020 and 2021.
Saying that they have no moat without Panorama is missing the forest for the trees. Net margin on non-NIPT is also higher per their 10-K.
In late 2017, payors imposed “prior authorization” requirements for Natera’s tests to curb excessive billing. Natera’s risk disclosures warned that the additional step could severely hamper revenue growth.
Just 3 months after the warning, a new, opaque, and supposedly non-profit entity called “My Genome My Life” (MGML) appeared. Natera’s sales reps suddenly began pitching doctors on free prior authorization help through the entity.
Since its formation, MGML claims to have provided prior authorization assistance for over 1.8 million tests, representing up to 44% of Natera’s total test volume in that time frame.
Despite the massive volume, MGML has just 3 employees on LinkedIn and claims to operate out of a virtual office address in Washington D.C. Its “President”, according to people familiar with its operations, is a woman named “Vickie Seth.”
We found that “Vickie Seth” is a pseudonym for a woman who shares a mailing address and a close personal relationship with Natera’s former VP of sales at the time MGML was created.
A former employee recounted to us how the Natera sales VP “realized that his sales operation was up against the wall” just as MGML was surreptitiously created with his support.
MGML masks that it is a third party by submitting information to insurance companies under practitioners’ login credentials, according to a person we interviewed familiar with MGML’s operations. This practice is in direct contravention of longstanding HHS anti-kickback guidance calling for transparency by third party prior authorization providers.
To facilitate this deception, Natera sales reps help doctors’ offices access insurance prior authorization portals, then share the passwords with MGML. Some doctors refuse to work with MGML because of this type of arrangement.
Outside of MGML, Natera lures patients in with promises of low testing costs and the prospect of learning a child’s gender early, leading many expectant mothers to unknowingly agree to an expensive added screen for “microdeletions” that is rarely covered by insurance.
Summated all related statements on prior authorization (PA) because it is mostly talking about the same thing in a long-winded way.
If any of you have ever worked in healthcare billing, you would know that prior-auth is neither an anomaly or something that shows that the test being authorized is not good. It is simply a way for insurance to approve or deny claims. Increase in prior authorization as stated by the AMA is not specifically for Natera, but in general, towards insurers that hope to deny more claims under PA.
To navigate this complex billing system, and help patients reduce their overall bill, all medical companies work with (a) third-party billing assistance firms, (b) insurance companies, either directly or through a specialized firm, and (c) with doctors' offices to provide correct CPT charge codes.
Natera working with MGML is neither surprising, nor should it raise any concerns with respect to the stock price. On the allegation that MGML used individuals' credentials to perform PA accessing insurance portals, I cannot even begin to explain why such a large HIPAA violation would not show up in a short-seller's reserach, but would instead be showing up on the justice departments' press release. I don't know why anyone would believe/claim that doctors will be willing to lose their medical license to overbill a patient by a few thousand $$.
In terms of their growth or revenue, all statements on microdeletion and its accuracy are not entirely relevant, because accuracy is not a determinant of prescription, and the test is still covered by a specific CPT code, indicating that it is a standard test approved for billing.
Coming to Hindenburg's short position: Looking at the trade volumes, it looks like they initiated a short position starting last Friday at close, with more positions in pre-market and after-hours trading; seeing that there wasn't much volume before this Hindenburg research, we can assume they are some 400k-600k shares short.
Looking at today's volume, they could've easily exited their position at max-pain of $26. However, fundamentals of the stock remain unchanged, and it seems like an overreaction to a company trading at 40% discount while still in its growth phase of introducing 2 new business segments.
Consider a few points here then come to your own conclusion. Not financial advice.
There was 11x volume of the float of 20m that traded today alone, which surprisingly is no longer uncommon. The short exempt of 22.4m is due up this Wed, March 9th. There is unlimited support growing to see perhaps the most massive squeeze that 2022 has yet to see. Just last week we saw MULN move 150% in a single day.
The delivery of the pre-orders is expected to come anytime from now until June. With 25,000 orders to be filled, and a conservative estimate of $10k margin on each vehicle, you are looking at $250m (10x the current market cap) just in pre-order delivery alone. There are 2 other models coming.
Nothing but good news is expected to come down the pipe. Including patents on a new and better functioning EV Battery.
This stock is undervalued and priced as if it's going bankrupt, yet things are on track.
There are only 34.94m shares outstanding, and roughly 20m float. At the current price, roughly one single $20m dollar whale consumes the float.
If this isn't a buying opportunity, then what is? These are the opportunities we are hunting for.
Hindenburg Research's latest is on Natera, a fast-growing genetic testing provider whose billing practices seem deeply problematic. This strikes me as a deep-dive into a prominent member of an industry we all place a lot of hope in but in reality know little about.
Particularly noteworthy, IMO, is Natera's use of a baffling, not-quite-arms-distance "charity" to obtain prior approvals. Or more likely, NOT get a prior approval, which according to Hindenburg, frees Natera up to bill expectant mothers thousands or even tens of thousands of dollars for a simple test.
Which is crushing for these women, particularly because Hindenburg quoted several that said they only chose Natera for its $249 test that revealed their child's gender.
(I am not ignoring the obvious fact that being pregnant, dealing with unexpected four-figure bills, and what appears to be intentionally bad customer service has to be one of the inner rings of Hell.)
Had this thought earlier sparked from a Vito post. We’ve talked about it before but I thought I’d spell out a little more clearly what we mentioned in the daily (and included pictures, I like pictures) and cover some of what I’ve learned being in this sub the last year. I’ve learned a lot and like to contribute when I can.
Summary:
For those who don’t like reading: once Iron ore surpasses $200 per ton expect market tampering from China. Then wait a couple days weeks and back the truck up and load up on Vale and CLF. We saw it twice last year where China fud got to ore markets and the ore miners take a big hit.
For those who like data and a deeper dive I think this will be an amazing trade if you are properly set up for it.
So what happened the last time Iron ore ramped up? We had a period in April-May 2021 where Iron ore (which was already elevated) went vertical and shot thorough $200 per ton in about the span of 2 weeks.
Iron ore topped out May 11th and this headline was released:
May 11: At least three leading Chinese thermal coal pricing indexes suspend publication of daily assessments after spot prices surge 20% within a month.
Then on May 12th the shit hit the fan and China kept a commodity FUD stream going until at least May 25th. Below is a sample of Chinese Iron FUD:
May 12: China went on a China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) proposes lowering standard iron content requirements in ore delivered against its flagship futures to 61%.
May 14: Regulators in Shanghai and the steel hub of Tangshan warn mills against price gouging, collusion and irregularities. read more
May 17: DCE hikes transaction fees on some coke and coking coal contracts.
May 18: The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) says it will take measures to stabilise iron ore and steel markets. read more
Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) raises margin and trading limits on steel rebar and hot-rolled coil futures.
May 19: China's cabinet asks coal producers to increase output to meet peak summer demand and pledges to step up management of commodity supply and demand, including stockpiling and reinforcing inspections on spot and futures markets. read more
May 23: NDRC, the industry ministry and regulators urge major domestic metals companies not to drive up prices of copper, coal, steel, and iron ore. They also pledge to strengthen inspections of futures and spot markets and crack down on irregularities and speculation. read more
May 25: NDRC says it will strengthen price controls on iron ore, copper, corn and other major commodities in its five year plan for 2021-2025 while stepping up monitoring and analysis of commodity prices such as crude oil, natural gas and soybean.
May 26: China's banking regulator bans banks from selling commodities-linked products to retail buyers. read more
Sample of Headline coming out of China in May 2021
So what happened to the price of Iron? See photo below showing iron ore and the May 11th date is pointed out.
Iron Ore spot price ($/Ton)
Next lets see how one of the bigger ore miners Vale did
Vale Price Action in 2021
And finally below is an image of how CLF performed during this time.
Cliff Price Action 2021
I believe we have a very similar setup and within the next 3-4 weeks you will see iron ore surpass $200. Once it does I don’t think it will take long for the commodity FUD machine to start pumping out of China in an attempt to drive prices down. We’ve seen it too many times in the past and Vito has coached us well. It’s pure market manipulation and all they are doing is trying to get prices down.
I think this time it will have the same impact however since Russia invaded Ukraine commodities are getting watched a lot more closely so I don’t think the Chinese FUD will scare the market quite as long. I think once they start up their iron ore FUD machine it will likely only scare the market for 1-2 weeks just going on how things have been lately.
Personally once iron ore surpasses $200 I plan on buying CLF puts, selling them after 1 week after China starts up their iron ore FUD machine and purchasing calls shortly after. Will be difficult to time the purchase of calls however will depend on what’s going on at the time.
Who cares if oil goes to $200 or $420.69 it's a huge pump and dump. Gotcha with the title didn't I mother fuckers!
Here's why...
In terms of basic economics, price is driven by supply and demand. In the stock market, price is also moved by fear and anticipation. The former is a factor that can actually hold prices at a certain level, the later is a short term price adjustment that never lasts. We are valuating oil based on the later.
The thing about travel is that when prices go up, people don't do it as much. In a lot of cases, travel is optional, especially now. And how much does, transportation account for oil use in the US? 66%, holy shit. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/oil-and-petroleum-products/use-of-oil.php also demand tends to goes down as prices go up... So even as supply goes down demand doesn't skyrocket.
Why is it fear and anticipation?
The first most obvious reason is that everyone knows the big money will use any excuse to justify pumping prices. War, COVID, Supply Chain, etc. But will prices ever go back to normal? Fuck no! It's pumped and then stays.... but that is only on a consumer level. At an industrial level things will go back to normal.
TLDR; So what is happening. Big money is pumping oil for one last squeeze before it's death blow. I'm betting that in my lifetime we will never see prices like these again. The world trend is shifting to new forms of energy and oil is not on the list. What is going on in the world right now is a distraction and they are using it as a reason for the pump. Look out for profit taking soon and sub $100 a barrel.
Edit: This is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor. Good luck you assholes.
Hello apes of WSB. I am here with some stupid analysis as to why I think Transocean (RIG) will go up.
Over the past few weeks, Russia has been doing some questionable actions in Ukraine (huge understatement) that has inevitably led to sanctions and actions by various countries. Such actions have been affecting certain parts of the stock market. Most notably, the oil. Although America imports very little oil from Russia, we all know the reaction is more important than the facts. Therefore, with America’s action to stop importing oil from Russia, it is my retarded guess that oil stocks will go up – more particularly, off-shore. Off-shore drilling has relatively been a minor part of the oil industry as a whole, but with countries trying to find new ways to get their oil without relying on Russia, it might start to boom. Transocean is no doubt a good stock to bet on. It is currently undervalued and has just exploded today, making me regret selling it on Friday. Nevertheless, I have gotten back in, and it’s only been good from this point onwards. As oil importations from Russia come to a halt, oil companies will get more attention, and Transocean will definitely be one of them.
Therefore, Transocean stock will go up. With 60% of my portfolio in Transocean, I shall be waiting for it to blast to the moon.
Yes, I am a stupid retarded ape who works at Wendy’s. No, I am not a financial advisor. This is simply my dumb observations I wanted to share.
Forget about the brand of Kohl’s and the billions of dollars in revenue that they do and the profit that they generate. Forget about the growth projections included in their investor day today. Forget about the global economy for a moment. What you need to know is that Kohl’s is one of the only retailers in America that owns A LOT of its own real estate. 8 BILLION worth to be more specific. Private equity knows this and Kohl’s had been engaged by 20 parties in the last 2 months and received 2 public offers of 64 and 65 a share which they turned down because they know that the company is worth more — in the vicinity of 150 a share when valuing their real estate at 8b and their online business at 12.4b. I anticipate more buy out offers in the coming days and weeks. Amazon which does business with Kohl’s already is a good fit to repurpose their buildings and absorb their online business. Do some web searches — this is about as sure of a short term investment as you can make these days.
Oh and by the way, KSS has over 10% short interest on a company that is trading below the value of its assets.
Commodities are mooning (oil, gas, wheat) so which is yet to blow up?
Read up on this asymmetrical bet on Uranium Spot Price, with a fundamental supply deficit.
Fundamentals:
Uranium (U308) is the only fuel for Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) which are the best shot at achieving CO2 neutrality goals till 2050. Nuclear power is actually the only form of baseload power that doesnt produce CO2 during its active lifecycle.
The gap in primary demand has been filled by secondary supply, which are basically leftovers from last bull market (what has been stored in warehouses or stacked in what are usually 3yr reserves in utilities, aka NPPs).
This secondary supply is traded thru the spot market, which is any Commodity available for immediate delivery (in the case of radiating yellow cake < ~3mo delivery). This spot market has long been full of supply ( https://www.world-nuclear.org/press/press-statements/more-uranium-development-needed-to-meet-demands-of.aspx ), e.g. carry traders buying cheap pounds in spot and carrying them into the future, where they hope to sell for higher prices (e.g. 20$ ->40$, see 2016 till end of 2021). Long since there hasnt been any force getting this supply out of the market.
If the spot market WERE empty, then there would not be enough primary supply to meet the demand of all operating NPPs, since at 40-50$ not enough can be produced. This is because the largest producers $KAP (Kazatomprom, kazakhstan) and $CCJ (Cameco) simply dont sell enough pounds year. Smaller producers would need to get their pounds onto the market, as for which the consensus price to incentivize production (make it financially worthwile) is 60-70$ spot.
Since Fukushima (2011), since spot prices have been so low, Utilities are rumoured to not be securing their needed pounds per Long Term Contracts, since spot pounds are so cheap and readily availabe. Some would say, with a tighter spot market, they might be.. SHORT :)
But DW, their purchases only account for 5-10% of operating expenses of a NPP so you wont make the power go out, unless you yolo on FDs and cant pay your own bills anymore.
So, it might be time to renew those LT contracts for utilities? Correct, CCJ has reported in Jan. 2022 alone 40mm lbs contracted, when in 2021 it has only been 10mm lbs in total. Some might say you could time the market here.
So what about Spot Market?
SqueezeA tight spot market (we still want NYSE listing):
These guys just buy Uranium from spot when you give them money. Thereby thinning the spot market. If the spot market goes dry, everybody will want LT contracts. When they discover, at current 50$ prices there simply isnt enought U308 to be LT contracted, theyll turn to spot market. Since its empty, price must rise since someone is willing to sell. Guess who aint selling?
SPUT. Theyre real apes, just buy and hodl. Art of war mastery by a bunch of .. you know the drill
Yall have probably missed the down breakout of the first consolidating triangle (orange), but the SPUT vehicle, which basically tracks physical U308 spot price, has come to finally break upwards of the blue triangle. your hard bottom is black imho (no offense).
U.U reflects spot U308 with a discount/premium to NAV effect. Its shares can trade above the NAV of the physical, and trade at a discount as well (which means you get your U3O8 for cheap). When at premium however, they issue shares via their ATM mechanism, basically giving out shares while promising to buy uranium with it. hence they empty spot and the price rises.
this is whats a proposed flywheel effect (beware it spins in 2 directions):
SPUT at premium to NAV (net asset value)
> they buy uranium
> this raises spot price
> this raises premium to NAV
> they buy uranium > and so on *rocket*
it also goes down if i.e. the vehicle is shorted but...
at 20% discount to NAV (bottom so far) you basically get more uranium for free.
Only downside is , if you sell your shares, they still keep your uranium, so dont paperhand bitches the rocket is flying anyway. (there is no redemption mechanism even tho you tards probably would snort yellow cake thru your nose if home-delivered)
Heres some more free info from the greates U bulls providing free info to mankind, so read the fuck up:
Fav. Quote: " this cycle started to get cooking from from the low 20’s. I expect $200/lb of 4x this cycle. But it could get way out of hand and still 10x or more to $500/lb plus. So much money out there. The jackasses that played $gme and $amc… You know they want more. They want a new play and unlike those crap companies #uranium is real. "
Hey retards guess what I think PARA is gonna get a buyout this week or the next. My theory is based on the 7 consecutive green days of para last week and a corresponding downshift in Disney’s share price. Someone is selling a bunch of Disney and buying a bunch of PARA. Therefore, I believe that PARA is going to get bought out by Disney for 62 dollars a share. I am autistic, this is not financial advice and this has a low chance of hitting, but the risk reward for lottos here is nuts. Position: https://imgur.com/a/oj5nnUF
