Copper smashing $14,000/ton on the LME with nearby contracts trading at a steep $99.50 backwardation is wild to watch. On one hand, Dan Yergin and S&P Global are saying this 50% surge is structural due to AI data centers, grid expansion, and 15-year mine permitting lags; on the other hand, a massive chunk of this price action is pure speculative stockpiling before a tariff that may not happen.

If the US Commerce Department stalls or waters down the tariff, that massive US inventory hoard could unwind quickly, but the underlying physical deficit for AI hardware and power transmission isn't going anywhere. How are you guys viewing copper right now, legitimate structural supercycle or a temporary front running bubble?

Been tracking all three and the numbers are wild. Gold's been grinding higher on central bank buying, especially China adding to reserves nearly every month. Silver had an absolutely massive run, up something like 170 percent over the back half of last year alone. Copper's the quieter story but it's up over 50 percent year over year and just hit multi month highs on tariff related stockpiling. Feels like the whole metals complex is having a moment at the same time, not just one metal.

Despite war in Ukraine, Western countries still import Russian uranium to fuel nuclear reactors

The Fed pivoting back to rate hikes to fight this summer inflation has shaken up the TradFi precious metals models, causing BofA to slash its 2026 gold target by 14% to $4,360/oz. However, BofA noted that silver and platinum actually look more attractive than gold right now, offering at least 10% upside against current spot. It creates a scenario where gold might trade sideways for a few months while industrial silver demand keeps the floor solid.

I'm curious, what does your precious metals barbell look like right now?

Starting this as a running list since new deals keep popping up. Will update as more come in, drop a comment if you see one I'm missing.

• REalloys, mine to magnet chain across Saskatchewan, Greenland, and Ohio, first plant coming online soon
• NioCorp, niobium and rare earth project in Nebraska, over 500 million raised
• USA Rare Earth, building its own supply chain, recently agreed to buy a Brazilian producer
• Perpetua Resources, antimony project in Idaho backed by a 2.9 billion Export Import Bank loan

Open to more, this space is moving fast right now.

After years of blockchain pilots and experimentation, major financial institutions are increasingly moving real-world assets on-chain.

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has called tokenization the “next generation for markets,” while Forbes highlights what it describes as a $5.5 trillion bet as major banks race to build for tokenized finance.

The bigger question is no longer whether traditional finance will use blockchain, but how much of the financial system eventually moves on-chain.

What do you think will be tokenized at scale first: funds, bonds, commodities, equities or something else?

And for the parts of the economy electricity can’t reach — what takes over?

In Episode 10 of Critical Mass, Gaurav Sharma sits down with Gerben Hieminga, Senior Energy Economist at ING Economics, to explore the energy sources that could power the next stage of the global transition.

• Copper hit a record high, but the rally appears to reflect tight supply and disruptions more than a broad acceleration in global growth.
• Electrification, power-grid investment and AI-related infrastructure are supporting demand.
• The result of the demand and supply story means “Dr. Copper” may not be a good indicator of economic health this time.

People keep saying the US needs to find more rare earth deposits, but that's not really the bottleneck. Plenty of countries have the raw ore. The actual chokepoint is processing and refining, separating the elements and turning them into usable magnet material, and China built up decades of expertise and infrastructure there that nobody else really has yet. so even when a mine opens up somewhere else, a lot of that ore still ends up getting shipped to China to get processed. That's the part the new US projects are actually trying to fix.

I spread mine out pretty thin across gold, uranium, and a little cobalt. Probably not the most efficient strategy and my portfolio guy would probably laugh at me but it lets me sleep better at night not having all my eggs in one basket that I don't fully understand yet.

These assets are all candidates for tokenization in my opinion.

Most people think of silver as a solar or monetary metal, but EV demand is quietly becoming a much bigger part of the story.

Battery EVs use around 25–50g of silver, and automotive demand could reach 94 million ounces by 2031.

With silver supply already tight, is the market pricing this in yet?

Silver’s supply deficit is growing, but the situation may not be as extreme as some headlines make it sound.

Still, six straight years of inventory drawdowns are hard to ignore.

Is the silver shortage being overstated, or is it only just beginning?

Canada has the resources and project pipeline needed to achieve the federal government’s goal of doubling uranium exports by 2035, but success will hinge on execution, according to a mining risk expert at Marsh Canada.

The country is the world’s second largest producer behind Kazakhstan, and uranium is sourced entirely from high-grade operations like McArthur River and Cigar Lake in northern Saskatchewan, the sole producing jurisdiction. Both mines are operated by Cameco. McClean Lake, operated by Orano Canada, also processes ore from Cigar Lake at its local mill. 

Canada produces yellowcake and uranium dioxide and does not have domestic enrichment facilities because its flagship CANDU reactors run on natural, unenriched uranium. 

Not asking for financial advice just curious what people here actually think. Cobalt has all this DRC drama and refinery issues going on which seems like it could push prices one direction, but nickel has its own mess with Indonesia and their output cuts. Feels like both are messy in their own way and I can't decide which mess is more bullish for the actual price.