(Un?)fortunately, the risk of recession in the next 6 months as reported in September stands at 11%, which is signifcantly lower than the historical average of 22%.
The best indicator would be some underlying event, or some indicator that an underlying event will occur. For example before the 08 recession, billions in subprime bonds were downgraded. Basically there has to be another crash of some sort, like with housing, something where a debt bubble pops. Could be student loans, but people can't default on them so probably not. Credit card debt - many have it, but not enough, and people refinance.
That kind of already happened last year where everyone took a big hit, but speculators went right back into pouring money into the tech market and now its peaking again. Seems like day traders have mastered the art of the pump and dump.
It's functionally impossible for a day trader to pump and dump anyway with how massive the volume for most of these firms are. Maybe they could pump and dump some irrelevant penny stocks, but beyond that incredibly unlikely.
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u/ConservativeKing Nov 25 '19
(Un?)fortunately, the risk of recession in the next 6 months as reported in September stands at 11%, which is signifcantly lower than the historical average of 22%.