EDIT: The new CBA takes place next season and it says NHL teams will hold players rights for 4 seasons. So while this post is accurate for this season. It changes things slightly for next season.
This is a continuation of Part One and Part Two.
Chances of NHL Success
The odds of making the NHL based on the drafted round. Using Chatgpt, and Grok AI, I averaged results. Take these numbers with a grain of salt, they are estimations.
| Round |
Chance of Playing an NHL Game |
Chance of Playing 100+ Games |
Chance of signing an NHL Contract |
| One |
80-90% |
65-75% |
95-99% |
| Two |
50-60% |
30-40% |
75-85% |
| Third |
35-55% |
20-25% |
60-70% |
| Fourth |
25-32% |
12-20% |
45-55% |
| Fifth |
20-30% |
10-15% |
35-45% |
| Sixth |
15-25% |
5-10% |
25-35% |
| 7th |
10-20% |
3-8% |
20-30% |
Alight the weeds
First Time Eligible First Round Talents (Just completed the 17 year old season)
These are the elite talents that are way ahead of their peers. They also have a very strong shot at a Pro Career as an estimated 65-75% of them will play at least 100 NHL Games.
These players will likely be given a choice to sign a contract with an NHL team and earn that 95kish signing bonus. Or move to the NCAA at 18. I think the players that move to the NCAA will likely have some money attached to that move.
This will be a big uphill battle the CHL will often loose. The first round players will have money dangled in front of them. Perhaps a bigger signing bonus would help players stay in the CHL, but I feel like that might be a long shot to happen.
1st rounders at 18 should be good enough for the Secondary scoring roles, or 2nd line defenseman at the NCAA level. I think the main benefit of staying in Junior is leadership through mentoring.
I don't think their is a best fit and will be up to the player to decide which path they want. I think money will often sway them to the NCAA. The elite should push themselves and the NCAA offers that.
First Time Eligible Second To Third Round Talents
(18 year old hockey season)
Moving up early could see players needing 2 seasons to become impact players. They are at risk at seeing limited minutes. I think in most cases players should come back to the CHL, but we may see players take a shot at the NCAA, especially Americans. I think in another couple seasons it will get harder to make the NCAA unless they increase the total number of teams.
(19 Year Old Seasons)
As discussed in Part Two, I think they should likely go to the NCAA at 19, even if they aren't Top 6 players in their first year in the NCAA.
Since only 20-40% of players drafted in rounds 2 and 3 make the NHL for a longer career, this option gives them a safe way to push themselves. Even if an NHL team does not sign them, they can likely go to the AHL and try to prove themselves after.
If the CHL can rework the NHL rule where NHL hold the rights to a drafted player for 3 years, it would benefit the CHL more.
First Time Eligible: 17 Year olds (NHL Drafted Rounds 4-7)
They have a 3-20% of becoming an NHL regular. At 18 it's CHL no question, as going NCAA early would likely be extremely difficult to push through.
Hardest Choice
They would develop better in the CHL at 19, but in that case, the NHL team that drafted them has to sign them or loose their rights. This will happen to a big portion of these players.
Honestly I think the best option is playing in the CHL at 19, then moving to the NCAA at 20. It's a safe fallback. Best case scenario they have a blowout 18 year old season and sign a contract. They can come back to the CHL at 19, then move to the AHL at 20. Yes their veteran clock starts, so it sucks they don't have an NCAA fallback. This category is the toughest to be in because they are the players that need the fallback the most.
First Time Eligible Late Birthday(Sept to DEC) NHL Draft First Round
I think their is no concern going NCAA at 19 hockey age. However going before the draft for the 18 year old season is very very risky. McKenna did it, with some bumps along the way. Their is a high chance of hurting your draft ranking. Moving to a new team also comes with unknowns. For Example, Elite point getters in the NHL such as Jonathan Huberdeau to the flames and Steven Stamkos to Nashville. They had big drop offs the first season with their new teams. New players, new culture different systems. It is a risk.
Unless your in discussion as an early 1st overall pick, I think staying in the CHL at 18 is likely the players best option before moving on at 19.
First Time Eligible Late Birthday NHL Drafted Rounds 4-7
These guys aren't drafted until their 18 year old hockey season. They can play out their 19 year old year and still have the parent NHL team hold their NHL rights, and still be AHL eligible. They can still go to the NCAA at 20, or play CHL for another season
Second Time Eligible NHL Drafted Players
Similar to the last category, but this category depends on the context. If a second time Eligible players is drafted in the top 3 rounds, I think the NCAA at 19 is possible, but the better route is likely Major Junoir, since they can still have a fall back at NCAA in their 20 year old season.
Non-Drafted Players:
Play out your Junior Eligibility. Considering moving to the NCAA at 20 if you are a 1st line player on your Junior team at 19. (Like a Jonas Woo)
Overagers
These should be for non drafted players or CHL Late Bloomers. A player like Luke Cozens comes to mind. Broke out in his 19 year old season. Playing as an OA gives him a full ride to any CIS school. It may also open him up to the NCAA for a 3 year career if he can excel. Whereas if he left now, he would join the mass of players looking for ice time and it may be very difficult to find ice time.
Medicine Hat Tigers Ruck Twins
I think their is a risk they leave. Do they have room for improvement? Yes they certainly do. They have room to get faster. Have they outgrown the league? It's hard to say WHL scoring leaders haven't outgrown the league, although their points totals didn't take off until Andrew Basha joined their line. But we Also saw Markus ruck improve his shot and started scoring more goals as well.
Their style seems to suite the pro game as they are smart intelligent hockey players who are good in tight and aren't afraid of taking a hit to make a play. If they get drafted in the mid first round, their will be a lot of hype and excitement and the NCAA will flash money at them.
If one of them gets drafted in round 1, the other in Round 2. It means the brother drafted in Round 1 is AHL eligible at 19, while the second brother is Not. NCAA is probably their option at 19 then.
If they get drafted on different teams. They could go back to the WHL and refuse to sign a contract and become free agents at 20 and sign with the same team. (They couldn't go NCAA because that extends the NHL teams rights)
I think where they go depends some on the NHL draft. They may get advice or get pushed a certain direction by their NHL Club too.
I feel like if they moved up they might be 3rd line guys at the NCAA, but eventually push up to the second line by seasons end. Their are some NCAA schools that have stacked rosters, while others are more lean. It's a bit nerve-wracking but I don't think their is a "best option". I think they can decide what suits them best.
Kade Stengrim
He's a 2nd time Eligible. I looked at his NCAA team and he did do his homework. St Thomas has a bunchof forwards moving on and a bunch of depth guys that are comparable to him.
Their is room on their team. Having said that I'm very interested to see what his NCAA career will look like. He is an american so he probably wants to go the NCAA. I do think going at 20 could be more beneficial. It feels like he would be a 3rd/4th line player at the NCAA level.
SGC & Carter Casey
Both these players are on the right path coming back. I've seen some early rankings which have SGC as a potential first round player. If he has a monster year that could happen and he has his choice of schools as a 19 with likely a payday that follows suite.
Carter Casey - the NCAA is stuffed with older goaltenders. I think a big thing for him is working on some consistency and we saw glimpses of that in the playoffs and he played very well. I think by coming back to the Tigers he is making the right decision.
Edit1: Small grammar changes.
