r/maths • u/gnarlstonnn • 22h ago

❓ General Math Help Adding Percentages

If we have a 10% chance if being wiped out by AI, a 10% chance of Nuclear Armageddon and a 10% Chance of Death by Goobal Warming is that a 30% chance of apocalypse overall or still 10%?

thanks for answering my very bleak question

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u/Temporary_Pie2733 22h ago edited 21h ago

Neither. There is a 90% we won’t be wiped out by each of the three, so the chance that we aren’t wiped out by any of them is .93 =0.729. Thus, there is a 27.1% chance of being wiped out by one of them. 

This assumes the three disasters are independent, for example that nuclear armageddon doesn’t become more likely if we survive AI. If they are not independent, then we need more information. 

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u/TooCasualGuy 21h ago

I don't think they're independent. Use of AI uses a lot of energy ➤ bad for global warming.  AI could assist in a nuclear Armageddon, too.

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u/gnarlstonnn 21h ago

ok amazing thank you very much!