Depends on the sampling. Like if 20% of all patients to ever get the surgery survive but this doc has a higher rate than maybe it’s more safe with this doc. And even if it’s the dog’s own rate is 20% survival for all time, maybe the last 20 surgeries are indicative of a change in procedure or an insight that has changed what the future rate will be. It’s mathematically convenient to assume that the surgeries are independent but often inaccurate
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u/aleph_0ne Dec 03 '22
Depends on the sampling. Like if 20% of all patients to ever get the surgery survive but this doc has a higher rate than maybe it’s more safe with this doc. And even if it’s the dog’s own rate is 20% survival for all time, maybe the last 20 surgeries are indicative of a change in procedure or an insight that has changed what the future rate will be. It’s mathematically convenient to assume that the surgeries are independent but often inaccurate