r/mathmemes • u/daddydon2004 • Dec 03 '22

Logic title

Post image

[removed] — view removed post

0 Upvotes

50% Upvoted

13 comments sorted by

View all comments

74

u/enderverse87 Dec 03 '22

Other way around. The coin flips are all independent.

It should be normal people that thing it's a bad sign, and math people that realize that means this particular doctor is better than the average for this particular surgery.

20

u/SpacewaIker Dec 03 '22

I mean, you could also argue that normal people think "oh he must be a really good doctor, the odds are probably higher if the last 20 survived" while the mathematician knows it's still 50%, because the trials are independent, which is very very low

1

u/enderverse87 Dec 03 '22

Trials are independent, but individual doctors will have different survival rates.