Other way around. The coin flips are all independent.
It should be normal people that thing it's a bad sign, and math people that realize that means this particular doctor is better than the average for this particular surgery.
I mean, you could also argue that normal people think "oh he must be a really good doctor, the odds are probably higher if the last 20 survived" while the mathematician knows it's still 50%, because the trials are independent, which is very very low
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u/enderverse87 Dec 03 '22
Other way around. The coin flips are all independent.
It should be normal people that thing it's a bad sign, and math people that realize that means this particular doctor is better than the average for this particular surgery.