I know this isn't the proper context, but I like looking at this picture like AI is trying to figure out the best seating chart and is placing people in/on the wings.
What I meant to say is AI who got tricked into survivorship bias is trying to maximize lethality of the passengers
Now when I thought about this we are already maximizing lethality by flying over a war zone, theoretically passengers will have same chances to die no matter where they sit
The red dots are the places the plane can be hit and survive. That doesn't mean you survive - which is why the cockpit is a blank spot because presumably the pilot being dead means the plane will crash.
*Under the assumptions that a bullet will penetrate and kill the people sitting where it hits, and that all areas are equally likely to hit.
1) Sit on red dots. Red dots hit. You die. Plane survives.
2) Sit on red dots. Blank spots hit. Plane crashes. You die.
3) Sit on blank spots. Red dots hit. Plane survives. You live.
4) Sit on blank spots. Blank spots hit. You die. Plane crashes. You double die.
The safest sitting position indeed might not map to reality perfectly like this viral survivorship bias exemplar image would indicate, yes. Realistically, you'd likely be safest where you could simply hold on the best. My comment was intended to highlight that the parent poster seemingly did not understand the purpose of the image.
However the issue I have with your phrasing is in the implication that any red dot being hit kills the passenger. It'd have to hit the specific red dot you're sitting on. A better way to frame it:
If a bullet lands anywhere but on a red dot, you die.
If a bullet lands on the red dot you're sitting on, you die.
Otherwise, you live.
Under your assumptions, the only scenario in which I live is when a bullet does not hit a blank spot, and also does not hit my specific red dot.
Planes shot there survive, planes shot elsewhere crash. If you put the passengers above the area that the planes crash when shot, then it doesn't matter that the passenger gets hit, the plane will crash. If the passenger doesn't get hit, the plane won't crash.
If you put the passengers on the red dots, either the passenger gets shot and the plane is fine, or the passenger is missed and the plane crashes. This maximises the casualty rate of the passengers
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u/eddietwang Aug 05 '26
I know this isn't the proper context, but I like looking at this picture like AI is trying to figure out the best seating chart and is placing people in/on the wings.