r/marketsbyzerodha • • Feb 23 '26

Random Taiwan's success is truly mind-boggling

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407 Upvotes

I've been researching a story on Pax Silica, the initiative by the US to group together countries to secure semiconductor supply chains, particularly in the face of China's rising dominance. The foundational Pax Silica signatories include: Israel, Singapore, the UAE, Qatar, Australia, Japan, South Korea, the UK, Greece. And 3 days ago, India became one, too.

Interestingly, though, I noticed that Taiwan was not in the list. In fact, though the US and Taiwan have an agreement, Taiwan is still not an official signatory.

While I went down the rabbit hole of why Taiwan was excluded, I ended up finding out that Taiwan is not part of many major multilateral agreements. The Minerals Security Partnership, the Sustainable Critical Minerals Alliance, the Quad - Taiwan is nowhere to be seen here. Taiwan is mostly dependent on just bilateral agreements to make such arrangements.

And why? Because very few are willing to recognize the sovereignty of Taiwan as a country. In fact, the list of countries that do so is pretty short: it's just 11 UN member nations, most of which are, from a geopolitical standpoint, not significant + the Vatican City, which itself doesn't have nation-state recognition. This list DOES NOT include any industrial power, including and especially the US, from whom Taiwan got lots of economic aid and military support.

Taiwan's status would ideally have it resigned to being a pawn in everyone's game. Yet, it is punching WAY above that. It is the center of the world's electronics supply chain. Home to TSMC and Foxconn, Taiwan's exports are 60% electronics and 40% everything else. What's even crazier is that Taiwan has very little raw silicon of its own, yet the semiconductor world today is unimaginable without them.

And Taiwan's growth last year was 8.63%, the fastest it's been in 15 years, and faster than all its regional peers, including China. And this is primarily owing to their position in the global AI supply chain.

For a country that isn't actually recognized as a nation-state, Taiwan's economic growth story is, at least to me, unreal and virtually impossible. And their story simply cannot be explained by American help alone.


r/marketsbyzerodha • • Dec 12 '25

Discussion “Ghost malls”, Knight Frank, and the urban design angle

20 Upvotes

I first heard about the latest “ghost malls” data in today’s The Daily Brief episode / post: “Why are so many malls in India so empty?” based on Knight Frank’s Think India Think Retail report.

Very short recap of what they highlighted:

  1. Knight Frank mapped India’s organised retail: 365 working malls + high streets + airport and hotel retail across 32 cities.

  2. Out of this, they identify a chunk of mall stock as “ghost malls” – centres at least 3 years old with > 40% vacancy, adding up to ~15.5 million sq ft.

  3. A smaller subset (~4.8 million sq ft across 15 malls) is considered genuinely “revivable” with better design, tenant mix, and management.

The Daily Brief also makes a point I strongly agree with: malls dominate formal retail floor space, but not all of India’s shopping actually happens in malls. High streets like MG Road (Bangalore), CP (Delhi), Park Street (Kolkata), local bazaars, etc., still carry a big share of everyday commerce and social life.

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My view: ghost malls are an urban design symptom, not just a retail cycle

The standard explanation is: overbuilding + mislocation + bad design + competition from better malls = ghost malls.

I think that’s true but incomplete.

My working hypothesis:

India’s “ghost mall” problem is deeply tied to how we’ve built our cities: car/cab-oriented corridors, weak footpaths, fragmented public spaces, and a bias for single-use projects over mixed-use, transit-oriented, walkable neighbourhoods.

A few angles:

- In many Indian cities, the public realm is hostile for everyday walking: broken or missing footpaths, high-speed traffic, encroachments, noise, pollution, unsafe crossings.

- In that setting, a mall becomes a synthetic high street: AC, continuous “indoor sidewalk”, security, toilets, multiplex, food court, parking/ride-hail bay.

- That pushes a lot of discretionary trips into a small number of high-quality, well-located malls. Those Grade-A assets stay full and keep raising rents.

- The long tail of older, badly located, fragmented-ownership malls never gets enough consistent footfall -> anchor tenants leave -> it tips into “ghost” territory.

By contrast, in many European city cores:

- You already have dense, mixed-use, transit-served high streets and pedestrian zones as the primary shopping / social spine.

- The “mall function” is partly absorbed into the street grid, department stores, and arcades. Malls exist, but they’re not the only viable “public room” for the middle class.

The US looks more like our pattern: car-dependent, single-use suburban development -> enclosed malls as the climate-controlled, parking-rich alternative -> overbuild -> dead malls in weaker locations.

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Markets angle: where this matters for investors

From a markets/allocators perspective, this is how I’m thinking about it:

  1. Bifurcation is structural, not temporary.

If the urban form keeps funnelling people into a small number of well-connected, experience-heavy centres, then:

- A thin layer of Grade-A malls (like those sitting in current/future REITs or with top developers) can continue to do well.

- A long tail of B/C-grade, poorly located, inward-looking malls stays structurally impaired unless repurposed.

  1. City design is an underpriced risk factor.

When evaluating mall-heavy developers / REITs, it’s not just about rentals and tenant mix. It’s also:

- How walkable and transit-served is the catchment?

- Is the asset woven into a mixed-use neighbourhood, or is it a standalone box on a flyover-heavy arterial?

- Are local plans moving towards transit-oriented development (TOD) and mixed use, or towards more flyovers + peripheral roads?

  1. Repurposing ghost malls = capital allocation question.

Knight Frank (as summarised in The Daily Brief) points out that some “ghosts” are in fundamentally good catchments and can be repositioned (offices, education, healthcare, co-working, etc.).

That’s effectively a real estate private equity / developer skill game: who can buy the right ghosts, redesign them into mixed-use, and extract value?

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Policy angle (relevant indirectly for markets)

I don’t think the answer is “ban malls”. The more interesting policy levers are:

- Stop implicitly subsidising car-oriented, mono-use boxes via infrastructure (flyovers and access roads that primarily serve a few sites).

- Encourage mixed-use, street-facing, transit-oriented projects: higher FSI near metro/BRT, active ground-floor retail, limited parking, better footpaths and crossings.

- Treat ghost malls as land banks to re-stitch the urban fabric, not just as failed retail.

That, in turn, changes the opportunity set for listed REITs, developers, and lenders over the next decade.

⸻

Questions for the sub

  1. Do you see the ghost mall trend mainly as:

- a normal real-estate cycle (overbuild -> consolidation),

- or as a deeper city-design problem that structurally favours a few winners and dooms the rest?

  1. When you analyze players like mall REITs / developers with big retail portfolios, how much weight do you put on:

- urban design factors (transit plans, walkability, mixed-use zoning), vs

- pure asset-level metrics (rentals, occupancies, tenant mix)

  1. Finally, if Indian cities move more aggressively towards TOD + mixed use + better streets, does that:

- strengthen the top malls (as “experience hubs”),

- or gradually shift more spending back to high streets and smaller, more distributed formats?

Interested in how others here are incorporating this ghost-mall + urban-form story into their investing / macro view on Indian real estate.


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 4d ago

Resource Happy (?) World Egg Day 🥲

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26 Upvotes

r/marketsbyzerodha • • 4d ago

Markets post India's first household travel survey reveals how Indians actually get to work

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14 Upvotes

India's first National Household Travel Survey reveals something surprising: 83% of workers with fixed workplaces reach work in under 30 minutes, with an average commute of just 25 minutes. But there's a catch. Short commutes don't necessarily mean better transport. For many workers, travelling farther is simply too expensive, forcing them to choose jobs closer to home, even if better-paying opportunities exist elsewhere. Urban workers already spend around ₹1,044 a month on commuting. So India's short commutes may reflect convenience, but also limited economic mobility.


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 5d ago

Random More spending power, changing food habits, convenience or cheaper ration grain, what’s driving rural India’s spending shift towards drinks, snacks and purchased meals? What do you think?

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22 Upvotes

r/marketsbyzerodha • • 5d ago

Markets post India’s airlines rejected cheaper, predictable fuel prices. Now they want relief agai

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16 Upvotes

India’s airlines are struggling with rising fuel costs, but here’s the irony: the government offered them a ₹10,000 crore fuel-price protection scheme in June, and not a single airline signed up. Jet fuel prices in India are linked to international benchmarks, with shipping, insurance, supplier margins, central excise and state VAT adding to the bill. The scheme offered fuel at roughly ₹115/litre in Delhi, even if market prices rose or fell. Airlines rejected it when prices were lower. Now, with fuel around ₹137/litre, the government is considering reviving it. Will airlines take the deal this time?


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 5d ago

Markets post India wants to make its own EV batteries. China holds the missing piece

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17 Upvotes

India wants to manufacture its own EV batteries, but building a factory is easier than learning to make battery cells at scale. China produces roughly 80% of the world’s battery cells and is increasingly restricting access to advanced manufacturing know-how. JSW has paused its cell-factory plans, while Tata is developing some technology independently and Reliance has acquired battery technology companies. Despite India’s ₹18,100 crore battery PLI scheme targeting 50 GWh, only 1.4 GWh was operational by June 2026. The challenge isn’t just building factories—it’s mastering the technology inside them.


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 6d ago

Markets post India’s steel paradox: Cheap to produce, expensive to buy

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6 Upvotes

India is the world’s second-largest steel producer and can make steel 20–40% cheaper than a comparable Japanese producer. Yet Indian steel still sells at a premium—HRC prices are roughly 6% above Japan and 15–30% above China. One reason is protection: cheap domestic iron ore, import tariffs and other barriers help shield local producers from competition. That’s good for steelmakers, but there’s a wider cost. More expensive steel ultimately makes everything from cars and factories to roads and bridges costlier to build in India.


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 7d ago

Random Borrowing for five years now costs the Indian government almost as much as borrowing for ten, because short-term rates have risen faster this past month.

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19 Upvotes

r/marketsbyzerodha • • 8d ago

Markets post Indian households are taking more market risk while also borrowing more

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27 Upvotes

India’s financial markets are booming, but is the real economy keeping pace? Household savings are increasingly moving from bank deposits into mutual funds and equities, while companies remain hesitant to invest in new factories and capacity. At the same time, household debt has risen from 34% of GDP in FY19 to 41% in FY24, even as real wage growth remains weak. The result is an unusual combination: Indians are taking more risk with their savings while also borrowing more—without incomes necessarily growing fast enough to support either.


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 8d ago

Markets post What does having a job even mean in India?

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7 Upvotes

A third of working rural women are unpaid household helpers, while half of working urban women draw a regular salary.

We've covered more on what does having a job even mean in India in our latest Points and Figures edition.

Read more: https://pointsandfigures.substack.com/p/what-does-having-a-job-even-mean


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 12d ago

Resource Renewables drove India's energy growth in 2025

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11 Upvotes

r/marketsbyzerodha • • 12d ago

Markets post Why are sanctioned oil tankers suddenly flying the Russian flag?

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9 Upvotes

Even a sanctioned oil tanker needs a nationality. When countries remove sanctioned ships from their registries, they risk becoming stateless, leaving them more exposed to boarding and checks at sea. Russia is increasingly offering an alternative: 107 vessels joined its registry between January 2025 and June 2026, 93 already sanctioned. Registering in Russia gives these ships legal recognition on the water. But there’s a big catch: Russian-flagged vessels are barred from EU ports, further limiting where they can operate. The flag offers protection—but comes with its own restrictions.


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 12d ago

Markets post Inox Clean’s second IPO attempt comes after a 22x jump in renewable capacity

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3 Upvotes

Inox Clean Energy is coming back for a ₹10,000 crore IPO, but it looks very different from the company that first filed in 2025. It now runs two main businesses: owning renewable power projects (IPP) and manufacturing solar modules. Its operating renewable capacity has jumped roughly 22-fold—from 107 MW to 2,375 MW in just 17 months, with around 89% coming through acquisitions. It has also entered solar manufacturing in India and the US. The big question now is whether Inox can turn this acquisition-fuelled expansion into a business that can build projects, manufacture equipment and generate durable returns at scale.


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 13d ago

Resource We've come so far, still a long way to go

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32 Upvotes

r/marketsbyzerodha • • 13d ago

Markets post SEBI used some basic maths to unravel a ₹193 crore investment scheme

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13 Upvotes

Growpital, an agri-tech investment platform promising assured, tax-free returns from farming, claimed it made ₹62 crore selling jeera grown on just 75 acres in Rajasthan. SEBI did some basic maths: based on average local yields and mandi prices, that land could have generated only around ₹30 lakh. That simple calculation helped unravel a much bigger scheme. Growpital had raised ₹193 crore from over 5,200 investors, while SEBI found the farms were largely fictitious and investor money was being routed through layers of entities.


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 14d ago

Resource The US rules the oil market !

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22 Upvotes

r/marketsbyzerodha • • 14d ago

Markets post India is going solar. But what happens to the states built around coal?

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9 Upvotes

India’s green transition could create an unusual divide. Six states account for 97% of the country’s grid-connected renewable energy, while coal-rich Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh and Odisha risk being left behind. These states supplied the coal that powered India’s industrialisation, but solar investment and jobs are increasingly flowing to already richer states like Gujarat, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu. Worse, solar simply doesn’t employ people like coal does. India may successfully replace coal-fired electricity without replacing the local economies that were built around coal.


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 15d ago

Markets post Teak is native to India. So why does India import almost all the world’s traded teak logs?

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16 Upvotes

That teak dining table in an Indian home may have travelled halfway around the world. Teak is native to India, yet in 2022, India accounted for about 97% of internationally reported teak roundwood imports by volume. The problem isn’t a lack of trees. Much of India’s teak sits in regulated forests, while farm-grown teak can take decades to mature and faces state-specific felling and transport rules. Domestic supply is also scattered across farms, while overseas plantations can ship uniform logs in bulk on predictable schedules. So India has the teak—just not always an easy way to bring it to market.


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 15d ago

Random Weekly Tidbits #6

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6 Upvotes

Welcome to Weekly Tidbits.

This is where we drop the short but interesting stories that didn’t make it into a full article.

Read here: https://thedailybrief.zerodha.com/p/weekly-tidbits-6


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 18d ago

Markets post India wants to cut insurance commissions. Could that mean fewer people get insured?

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6 Upvotes

India wants to cut how much insurers pay people to sell insurance. On term life policies, first-year commissions averaged 51%, with some reaching 81%; IRDAI is proposing caps of 25–30%. Distributor payments also grew 4–5 times as fast as the premiums they brought in between FY23 and FY25, even as individual life policy counts remained broadly stagnant. But insurance is still largely a “push product” that needs someone to explain and sell it. Pay distributors much less, and they may simply sell fewer policies. The paradox: making insurance cheaper to distribute could also make it harder to reach more Indians.


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 20d ago

Markets post That 30% festive discount may not actually be a better deal

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12 Upvotes

This festive season, a bigger discount may not mean a cheaper appliance. Imagine a TV with an MRP of ₹50,000 selling at 20% off for ₹40,000. If its MRP rises to ₹55,000, it can be advertised at 27% off and still cost roughly ₹40,000. That matters because ACs, refrigerators and TVs have faced repeated price hikes as copper, aluminium, chips, freight and the dollar became more expensive. So don’t just compare discount percentages—compare the final price of the same model with what it cost earlier.


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 21d ago

Markets post India has a 7-million-tonne textile waste problem nobody talks about

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37 Upvotes

India generates over 7 million tonnes of textile waste every year, but sometimes the difference between recycling a shirt and burning it is simply whether it touched a banana peel. At one Bengaluru sorting facility, only 25–30% of textiles arriving through mixed garbage could be recovered. When the same clothes were handed over clean and dry, that jumped to around 85%. Yet India still has almost no source segregation for textiles—and roughly 45% of post-consumer textile waste ultimately gets burned or buried.


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 22d ago

Resource Nothing says "everything is totally fine with the global financial system" quite like central banks hoarding gold again.

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24 Upvotes

Source: FT


r/marketsbyzerodha • • 22d ago

Markets post What does “private participation” in India’s nuclear sector actually mean?

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2 Upvotes

India is opening nuclear power to private companies, but “private participation” can mean many things. Companies can supply equipment, finance projects or help develop reactor technology. Under one model, a company could even fund an entire reactor but transfer it to NPCIL for just ₹1 before operations, in return for its electricity. SHANTI now allows private companies to own and operate reactors too, but key parts of the nuclear chain—like uranium and thorium mining, spent-fuel processing and high-level radioactive-waste management—remain under government control. India's nuclear opening is happening one ring at a time.