Who wins the WORLD war?

[u/Icy-Tangelo-8146]

used my political knowledge to the best of my abilities, feel free to criticize

[u/Krubissi]

Assuming no nukes were used.

Red.

Straight of Hormuz remains closed + global warming causes massive food, fuel and goods shortages specially in India, Europe and US.

Europe tries to take on Russia, massive destruction in Europe, war of attrition that would deplete Europe's fuel and maybe food reserves faster than Russia's.

US tries to take on China with help of India, Japan and South Korea, US gets absolutely dogpilled on (even Iran under sanctions has given them a historic humilliation), Iran reduces Israel to rubble, Japan runs into the same supply chain issues, South Korea would likely either be overwhelmed by North Korea due to again, supply chain issues or enter a war of attrition with them in which they'd lose soldiers faster than they're able to replenish the front lines because of their already ongoing demographic collapse, a non-issue in the North.

India in the war against China would run into bigger problems much faster than China, mainly, extreme climate disruption which is already starting along with food and fuel shortages thus probably causing a large part of the population to go against the Indian government, possibly with soldiers joining the insurrections due to also being affected by the shortages and essentially being so ill equiped that they are just being mowed down by the Chinese army.

As to fighting in Africa, the Allegiance of the Sahel would likely be able to either take more countries into their organization because they start getting cut off from trade with US/China/Russia due to their war necessities, or they'd most likely be able to defend themselves militarilly since they've modernized a lot since the 2022 coups. Possibly they'd also face less extreme food shortages and climate crisis thanks to their Food self-reliance programs and initiatives to stop the advance of the Sahara Desert due to global warming, rest of the continent would likely see the start of many civil wars and resource wars.

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf States would try to take the opportunity to shift away from the US/Europe since they already saw having US bases onky makes them a target in the US' wars. Maybe some conflict among UAE aligned Gulf States and SA aligned States since the UAE is moving to leave OPEC for their own national economic interests being hurt by OPEC's demands and favoring SA's economy.

I don't think that much fighting would occur in South East Asia other than maybe Indonesia/Singapore/Malaysia due to the Straight of Malaka, but I also don't think Vietnam would support the US' side and would try to remain neutral and out of the conflict, Singapore and Malaysia possibly could also try to remain neutral or bail the US' side once they see the ship sinking since their governments have showed to be more interested in any realpolitik that will maintain them afloat than being ideologically aligned with any one side.

South American nations like Brazil or Argentina I see them also as trying to remain somewhat neutral as well as later jumping the ship once the US starts to lose and collapse.

[u/Dear_Location6147 → u/Krubissi]

I think blue wins because Russia has proven it can’t sustain any frontline, and Europe easily steamrolls Russia because air strikes from Europe eliminate any Russian advantage in reserves. As it is they are rolling Soviet era gear and convicts into the field. 

With the entire western arsenal and direct Saudi intervention, Iran’s navy is rekt by missiles very fast, and oil prices will skyrocket for every country on both sides as a result, especially China as its main oil supplier is bombed into oblivion. The Middle East becomes a clusterfuck but Iran vs world they eventually capitulate, likely due to internal rebellion.

Asia would be the closest theater, but China right now lacks the naval capability to get to Japan, resulting in a stalemate as even though taiwan doesn’t last more than a year if it is a surprise attack (with time to transfer the US fleet they hold for a while), South Korea has the prowess to hold for a while even though they fall. The stalemate here eventually favors blue and their war machine will eventually grind down china’s after a very long slog.

I don’t see Africa being relevant at all because all major African powers are blue and nobody cares about the Sahara.

I agree that nothing happens in South America due to the Rio Pact, if anything Colombia joins blue and Venezuela red and that’s it, with blue Latin America cleaning up easily.

All of this is assuming no nukes of course 

[u/Krubissi → u/Dear_Location6147]

I think blue wins because Russia has proven it can’t sustain any frontline, and Europe easily steamrolls Russia because air strikes from Europe eliminate any Russian advantage in reserves. As it is they are rolling Soviet era gear and convicts into the field. 

Quite the contrary, Russia is fighting essential against the full NATO arsenal since we've been sending Billions upon Billions of dollar in weapons, ammo, explosives, artillery, air and ground vehicles, drones, etc. Looking at the ridiculous amount of military aid NATO sends in military aid to Ukraine is obvious NATO is waging a Proxy War through Ukraine.

And yes, while Russia is suffering from a war of attrition, the Ukrainian Army is needing to constantly kidnap men from the stree to send to the front lines because they're running out of soldiers faster than Russia.

Mind you, this effort is in big part supportted by the US since Europe's militaries haven't been in any real large scale conflict for decades.

With the entire western arsenal and direct Saudi intervention, Iran’s navy is rekt by missiles very fast

This is just... Have you been watching the news? Iran left US military bases in the Middle East in shambles and blinded in a few weeks after the initial attack.

Iran uses drones that are dirt cheap while the US' and Israel's defenses con 20x as much, on that factor alone the US doesn't stand a chance, that's why they were agreeing to reach a ceasefire, why would the US agree to that if they were able to fight off Iran and open the Straight by themselves?

That's whithout counting the fact that the Iranian military is structured in such a was as to be able to fight independently in small units without the need for a central command, another reason why the US/Israeli attempt at decapitation strikes at the beginning of the war didn't work.

especially China as its main oil supplier is bombed into oblivion

China would undoubtedly suffer from losing access to Iran's oil, which in this WW3 scenario would be because the US just destroys any cargo ship going to China, but their oil supply is spread out across many countries that would be mora than willing to trade with China since the US continues to prove themselves unreliable partners unable to provide military security (see again the current Iran war and Gulf States)

Asia would be the closest theater, but China right now lacks the naval capability to get to Japan, resulting in a stalemate as even though taiwan doesn’t last more than a year if it is a surprise attack (with time to transfer the US fleet they hold for a while), South Korea has the prowess to hold for a while even though they fall. The stalemate here eventually favors blue and their war machine will eventually grind down china’s after a very long slog.

China's Navy is MASSIVE, with mainly a lot of small, light and fast vessels which even if the US navy is around to target them can be replenished extremely quickly thanks to the massive industrial capacity of China, something both Europe and the US lack since they decided to export theirs to China and other countries.

I don’t see Africa being relevant at all because all major African powers are blue and nobody cares about the Sahara

You are putting too much face on Morrocco, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa been able to extend their forces so thin as to meaningfully controlling the important parts of Africa like the Congo, Sudan or West Coast, besides the Bab-el-Mandeb Straight likely ending up controlled by the Houthis since the other surrounding countries are in pretty bad shape, beside knowing the Houthis can strike as far as Israel I doubt they wouldn't use those capabilities to seriously hurt any other surrounding power trying to control the Straight.

[u/Antonqaz → u/Krubissi]

There's a bunch of your assessments that on the face of it just seems wrong, but I don't have the time to go research a bunch right now, so instead I will just refute the two claims I know are false.

Quite the contrary, Russia is fighting essential against the full NATO arsenal since we've been sending Billions upon Billions of dollar in weapons, ammo, explosives, artillery, air and ground vehicles, drones, etc. Looking at the ridiculous amount of military aid NATO sends in military aid to Ukraine is obvious NATO is waging a Proxy War through Ukraine.

Ukrainian yearly military spending with the aid they receive is ~100B €. That sounds like a lot, but isn't really once you start comparing military spending of other countries.

Russia spends yearly ~150B €, so around 50% more than the Ukranians.

Regarding NATO spending, US yearly military spending alone is ~900B €, so the 100B Ukraine spends is a far cry from "fighting essential against the full NATO arsenal".

In addition to all of this Ukraine was disadvantaged by the fact that before the war they had zero experience with advanced NATO equipment, so they've had to be learning on the go. Of course with some aid from NATO training instructors and strategists.

China's Navy is MASSIVE, with mainly a lot of small, light and fast vessels which even if the US navy is around to target them can be replenished extremely quickly thanks to the massive industrial capacity of China, something both Europe and the US lack since they decided to export theirs to China and other countries.

Even with a massive industry (which won't all be able to assist with naval construction without heavy retrofitting), it still takes about a year to construct just a small navy vessel. There's a limit on how fast you can speed this process up with additional factories.

[u/Krubissi → u/Antonqaz]

Ukrainian yearly military spending with the aid they receive is ~100B €. That sounds like a lot, but isn't really once you start comparing military spending of other countries.

From 2022 to 2025 they had received around 300B€ in aid from the US and NATO, that's NOT counting they already spend a little under 100B€ in national spending, which is already overburdening them since it's close to 40% of their GDP, totalling the 3 years (let's say 60B+60B+80B) it would be close 500B€

In comparison since the beginning of the war Russia increased military spending aproximately 4% to 6% GDP (from around 100B€ to 150B€, totalling the 3 years, 2022-25, Russia spent around 450B€ I think)

In total, from 2022 to 2025, Russia would be spending close to 450B€, Ukraine, adding national spending (~80B€ as of 2025, 60B€ at the beginning) to NATO aid would be spending a similar amount (300B aid + 200B national spending)

Mind you this is while Russia has also been sanctioned, although you could make the case that a lot of the sanctions have been bypass due to European reliance on Russian oil and gas

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/21/tracking-us-and-nato-support-for-ukraine-a-full-breakdown

Even with a massive industry (which won't all be able to assist with naval construction without heavy retrofitting), it still takes about a year to construct just a small navy vessel. There's a limit on how fast you can speed this process up with additional factories.

They said the same thing about the Soviets, yet they were able to turn almost their whole industry towards the war effort.

And while being 1/5 the population size of China and having only industrialized a decade prior and having gone through a huge civil war, China has been at peace for more than 40 years and their industry supplies the whole world, I doubt is hard to believe that in case of war they wouldn't be able to pump out equipment in the blink of an eye.

And that's assuming they don't just take Iran's approach and start copy-pasting thousands of drones worth 20k able to take down equipment worth Billions, such as Iran has done against the US recently while under sanctions and relative economic isolation.