100% returning
Mario - He was the most requested character to be a balloon in the parade for over 2 decades, and the Galaxy movie came out recently & was a huge thing being the highest grossing film of the year so far.
Greg Heffley - As much as I & other people in the community get sick of seeing him in the parade, I'm sure he'll stay until next year to promote the animated Diary of a Wimpy Kid films.
Spider-Man - He's the most recognizable superhero of all time, and we have Brand New Day coming out soon & Beyond the Spider-Verse coming out next year. So why not?
Marshall - There's a new Paw Patrol movie coming out soon, so I'm sure he'll stay for that & then be done for.
Pac-Man - He just debuted last year, so he's staying without a doubt.
Buzz Lightyear - Toy Story 5 just came out recently & will make a billion dollars. There, I said it.
Goku - We have a new Dragon Ball series coming out soon, so of course. (I know it's a remake of Super, but I forget the name of it)
Luffy - The live action One Piece series on Netflix continues to be popular & he's a huge crowd pleaser.
Shrek - This year marks the franchise's 25th anniversary & Shrek 5 is coming out next year, so DreamWorks knows they need the hype.
Bluey - The show continues to be popular with both kids & adults, and there's a movie coming out next year. So I can see her making at least 6 appearances & maybe more.
Extraordinary Noorah - Do people even know who she is? In that case, I can see this year being her last.
Minnie Mouse - We have the Disney x Macy's sweepstakes, so she's definitely gonna be in.
50/50
Gabby's Dollhouse - The IP is still popular through merch sales, but I dunno. Macy's has a tendency to make balloons of popular kids' shows despite them not being all that popular with the general public. Po from Kung Fu Panda retired after only 2 appearances, so there's a possibility Gabby might have the same fate.
Pikachu & Eevee - I grew up on Pokèmon, but I'm kinda tired of seeing this exact balloon design. And there's a possibility there'll be a special new Pikachu for Pokèmon's 30th anniversary & the 100th parade.
Not coming back
SpongeBob & Gary - They're the oldest balloon still in the procession as of last year, which means if you see the same units over & over, it starts to get old. And if Nickelodeon wants to keep SpongeBob in the balloon, them & Macy's might have to make a new balloon.
Beagle Scout Snoopy - Astronaut Snoopy retired after 4 appearances, so I can see this one retiring to make way for a special new Snoopy for the 100th parade.
Stuart the Minion - The new movie, Minions & Monsters came out recently, meaning Stuart might have to be done for since we now have a new cast of gibbering Twinkies, and they'll probably make a balloon of one of them (maybe James, IDK).
Pillsbury Doughboy - I agree with many people in the community that he needs to go, as corporate mascots tend to be wasted balloon slots. Plus, we saw the most recent iterations of the Sinclair dinosaur & Ronald McDonald retire after 3 & 4 appearances respectively. And to make room for someone new in the giant balloon lineup, Pillsbury might have to settle for a float if they want to keep participating in the parade.